My best case - Oklahoma to B1G

[OrangeAggieArmy]

So the B1G took MD and Rutgers for TV purposes. Let's remember that prior to that, they took Nebraska (not an AAU member) because they're a program that "moves the needle." I hope the B1G tries to move the needle again and takes Oklahoma (also not an AAU member), causing the implosion of the BigXII.

That opens the door for the ACC to get Texas. A lot of people seem to think the logical place for UT to go if the BigXII implodes is the PAC12, but I don't think UT wants to play away games on the west coast which is two time zones away. You get UT, and the ACC is stable, especially if that gets ND all in.

 

[Chris02M]

So the B1G took MD and Rutgers for TV purposes. Let's remember that prior to that, they took Nebraska (not an AAU member) because they're a program that "moves the needle." I hope the B1G tries to move the needle again and takes Oklahoma (also not an AAU member), causing the implosion of the BigXII.

That opens the door for the ACC to get Texas. A lot of people seem to think the logical place for UT to go if the BigXII implodes is the PAC12, but I don't think UT wants to play away games on the west coast which is two time zones away. You get UT, and the ACC is stable, especially if that gets ND all in.

oklahoma is a non starter academicallythough

 

[44PRIDE]

Technically, Nebraska was an AAU member when they were brought on. They were in the process of getting kicked out......but were still technically members.

 

[Alsacs]

Okie State is tied to the hip of Oklahoma there is no doubt about this. Go back and read the OU to Pac-12 stuff Okie State was folllowing OU whereever they went. The B1G is looking for TV sets that is it. Texas is a target, but OU isn't. ND and TX are what the B1G's endgame is.

 

[AZOrange]

So the B1G took MD and Rutgers for TV purposes. Let's remember that prior to that, they took Nebraska (not an AAU member) because they're a program that "moves the needle." I hope the B1G tries to move the needle again and takes Oklahoma (also not an AAU member), causing the implosion of the BigXII.

That opens the door for the ACC to get Texas. A lot of people seem to think the logical place for UT to go if the BigXII implodes is the PAC12, but I don't think UT wants to play away games on the west coast which is two time zones away. You get UT, and the ACC is stable, especially if that gets ND all in.

Texas is a conference problem right now, not a solution. I do think the big12 is most likely to go. I still cannot fathom why the PAC didn't make the ok deal happen.

 

[Crusty]

Texas is a conference problem right now, not a solution. I do think the big12 is most likely to go. I still cannot fathom why the PAC didn't make the ok deal happen.

Because it is a college conference - no room for high schools.

 

[Scooch]

Texas is a conference problem right now, not a solution. I do think the big12 is most likely to go. I still cannot fathom why the PAC didn't make the ok deal happen.

Not much to fathom, Texas backed out.

 

[AZOrange]

Not much to fathom, Texas backed out.

There was more to it than that. OK and OSU were going, they were caught off guard by Pac ceasing expansion talks...To not take them and get to 14 (and in reality could have had KU/KSU if they wanted) was just that.

 

[chakka3421]

The PAC12 wants UT in its end game - for UT, recruiting advantage over SEC teams, academic associations with PAC12 teams vs SEC teams, easier way to get to NC, more alums on West coast than East coast, to me this is one likely domino next to fall.

OAggie - to me the next most likely targets for the B1G are Kansas in the West and UVA or UConn (Boston-NY corridor) in the East.

 

[tep624]

The PAC12 wants UT in its end game - for UT, recruiting advantage over SEC teams, academic associations with PAC12 teams vs SEC teams, easier way to get to NC, more alums on West coast than East coast, to me this is one likely domino next to fall.

OAggie - to me the next most likely targets for the B1G are Kansas in the West and UVA or UConn (Boston-NY corridor) in the East.

Even if the B1G made a splash and landed Oklahoma, they'd still have to target Kansas because their model is contiguous states and Oklahoma is not currently contiguous to their current model. Also, if they wanted a Texas school, Kansas would still have to be in the mix because of the contiguous state factor (in the event of a major move like say OK, OK St., a Texas school, then Kansas would be involved as well).

That's why the whole BC rumor makes no sense to me - it's not contiguous unless they add a school from NY. The BC rumor only makes sense if SU is being invited as well.

One dark horse in all of this is Iowa State. I understand that their athletics aren't exactly sexy (but let's face it, neither are MD or Rutgers really), but Iowa State is an AAU school right in Big 10 country.

I think it's all going to come down to strategy and how large the B1G wants to grow to. I don't think any more than 20 teams is realistically manageable. The B1G hasn't made a move into the Southern Midwest yet, but they have now made a further move into the East and Mid-Atlantic. Does the B1G go to 18 and target Kansas, Iowa St., Kansas St. and an eastern school? Do they make a move for OK or OK St and try to move into the southern midwest? Or do they keep their current midwest footprint and make a bold move to lock up the Northeast and mid atlantic?

I tend to agree with you though - I don't see the B1G going further north than PA/NJ and I don't see them going further south than Virginia. They'll have difficulty getting UVA alone though unless some movement happens for Tech as well. But Kansas and Iowa State logically make sense from a regional/AAU perspective. I think with the MD and Rutgers adds, the Big 10 showed that athletics isn't necessarily the most important factor, but footprint and academics play a big part as well.

 

[orange79]

At this point, I don't think contiguity is a major player in any of this.

 

[tep624]

At this point, I don't think contiguity is a major player in any of this.

The SEC, PAC 12, and B1G have been the big drivers in this second round of realignment. The PAC 12 added 2 schools, both contiguous. The SEC, 2 schools, both contiguous, and the B1G, 3 schools, all contiguous. That's not a coincidence.

It's also no coincidence that the 3 most unstable BCS conferences lacked contiguity.

 

[orange79]

The SEC, PAC 12, and B1G have been the big drivers in this second round of realignment. The PAC 12 added 2 schools, both contiguous. The SEC, 2 schools, both contiguous, and the B1G, 3 schools, all contiguous. That's not a coincidence.

It's also no coincidence that the 3 most unstable BCS conferences lacked contiguity.

I get it. And in the past, everything you said is true. But we are in a brave new world now. Do you think that the Pac12 would NOT accept Texas, if they could get around the LHN issue? No contiguity there. Do you think the B1G would turn down UNC? No contiguity there either. All I'm saying is that all models are out the window. Contiguity, as I said before, is not a major concern anymore. See Boise St/San Diego St in the BE.

 

[orangenirvana]

Over the next five years...

PAC adds Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State
Big Ten adds UNC, Virginia
SEC adds Virginia Tech, NC State
ACC adds UConn, Louisville, Cincinnati, WVU, Kansas, Kansas State, possibly one more since Notre Dame will never give up their independence.

There are your four superconferences.

If ACC wants to be one of the four superconferences, they're going to have to swallow their academic pride a bit and sacrifice some rankings there.

 

[44PRIDE]

I'd be willing to bet if the PAC offers Texas again, they jump. This is based on 2 things.

1) They are no longer tied with A&M
2) The Longhorn Network has been more bust than boom.

 

[HtownOrange]

oklahoma is a non starter academicallythough

Oklahoma is academically equal to Nebraska. Not really an issue for the B1g.

 

[HtownOrange]

Okie State is tied to the hip of Oklahoma there is no doubt about this. Go back and read the OU to Pac-12 stuff Okie State was folllowing OU whereever they went. The B1G is looking for TV sets that is it. Texas is a target, but OU isn't. ND and TX are what the B1G's endgame is.

OU and OSU are not tied at the hip. They have close ties, but OU can and will act separately if necessary. They prefer to go together.

http://www.crimsonandcreammachine.c...homa-and-oklahoma-state-really-a-package-deal

Kansas and KState are not tied at the hip, either. Though the two are within the same system and the system does have control over athletics, they have plainly stated that they will allow Kansas and KState to go their separate ways.

I agree that Texas is the big goal, but Oklahoma can be a destabilizing factor and they are a football King.

 

[HtownOrange]

Even if the B1G made a splash and landed Oklahoma, they'd still have to target Kansas because their model is contiguous states and Oklahoma is not currently contiguous to their current model. Also, if they wanted a Texas school, Kansas would still have to be in the mix because of the contiguous state factor (in the event of a major move like say OK, OK St., a Texas school, then Kansas would be involved as well).

That's why the whole BC rumor makes no sense to me - it's not contiguous unless they add a school from NY. The BC rumor only makes sense if SU is being invited as well.

One dark horse in all of this is Iowa State. I understand that their athletics aren't exactly sexy (but let's face it, neither are MD or Rutgers really), but Iowa State is an AAU school right in Big 10 country.

I think it's all going to come down to strategy and how large the B1G wants to grow to. I don't think any more than 20 teams is realistically manageable. The B1G hasn't made a move into the Southern Midwest yet, but they have now made a further move into the East and Mid-Atlantic. Does the B1G go to 18 and target Kansas, Iowa St., Kansas St. and an eastern school? Do they make a move for OK or OK St and try to move into the southern midwest? Or do they keep their current midwest footprint and make a bold move to lock up the Northeast and mid atlantic?

I tend to agree with you though - I don't see the B1G going further north than PA/NJ and I don't see them going further south than Virginia. They'll have difficulty getting UVA alone though unless some movement happens for Tech as well. But Kansas and Iowa State logically make sense from a regional/AAU perspective. I think with the MD and Rutgers adds, the Big 10 showed that athletics isn't necessarily the most important factor, but footprint and academics play a big part as well.

The B1G has repeatedly stated that there is no rule about contiguous states. The B1G analyzed data from about 2 dozen schools, several that would not be contiguous. Remember, they would have taken Texas (with or without TAMU) and flatly rejected taking any schools hanging on to Texas' coattails (read: TTech).

From an academic perspective, Kansas, ISU and OU are all viable. From a marketing POV, none are viable. Syracuse, BC, UVA or UNC bring more than all three of those schools combined. I lean towards the B1G looking for large markets. Syracuse (good relations with B1G schools) UVA, UNC and GATech are all strong candidates.

 

[HtownOrange]

I'd be willing to bet if the PAC offers Texas again, they jump. This is based on 2 things.

1) They are no longer tied with A&M
2) The Longhorn Network has been more bust than boom.

As long as #2 stays true, then Texas leaving is a real possibility.

 

[tep624]

I get it. And in the past, everything you said is true. But we are in a brave new world now. Do you think that the Pac12 would NOT accept Texas, if they could get around the LHN issue? No contiguity there. Do you think the B1G would turn down UNC? No contiguity there either. All I'm saying is that all models are out the window. Contiguity, as I said before, is not a major concern anymore. See Boise St/San Diego St in the BE.

And I don't agree. If all models are out the window, RU and MD would not have been the schools at the head of the list for the Big 10.

The Big East is the shining example of what NOT to do when creating a conference - you shouldn't be using them as an example of the brave new world of conference realignment. They have done what they've done out of desperation, nothing more, nothing less. The Pac 12, B1G and SEC are anything but.

 

[orange79]

If all models are out the window, RU and MD would not have been the schools at the head of the list for the Big 10.

This brave new world is driven by $$$$. The addition of MD and RU will provide higher revenue for BTN and the B1G due to the dramatically increased number of households.

Who, pray tell, would have been the schools at the the head of the list for the B1G, in your opinion and why?

 

[HtownOrange]

This brave new world is driven by $$$$. The addition of MD and RU will provide higher revenue for BTN and the B1G due to the dramatically increased number of households.

Who, pray tell, would have been the schools at the the head of the list for the B1G, in your opinion and why?

I agree with this in part because the B1G could not pick off a big target without destabilizing their support structure. UNC and/or UVa would not simply jump to the B1g, if they are the targets. We often forget that we are not privy to what went on behind closed doors. With the B1G, Syracuse had support, so to think that they were not in the mix is unlikely, more likely is that TGD let it be known that Syracuse committed to the ACC and would not change that unless something else happened.

Rutgers and Maryland were prime targets in that they have sizable populations , good market potential and they were each desperate for cash. Rutgers was also desperate for a new home, so no issue with getting them. Maryland had to break off 50+ year relationships to join. Consider UNC or UVA, they don't need the cash, would they pry away so easily?

 

[Jeepers]

I'm going on record saying that SU won't be a B10 consideration until we hear some announcement that we're pairing up with SUNY upstate medical (to get AAU back).

Or if ND wants us as their partner to join.

Both very unlikely scenarios.

 

[tep624]

This brave new world is driven by $$$$. The addition of MD and RU will provide higher revenue for BTN and the B1G due to the dramatically increased number of households.

Who, pray tell, would have been the schools at the the head of the list for the B1G, in your opinion and why?

Texas and OK, first and foremost, if $$ is driving everything. Markets that the B1G isn't in, and markets that those teams own. I may not understand all the nuances of the cable companies and subscriber packages, but I'd think that a television network that people actually tune into would be more valuable to the cable companies than one that people don't (which is what will happen with RU and MD - their fan following in their states pales in comparison to Texas or OK).

When the Big 10 did their first round of expansion in 2010, and they hired an investment firm to analyze schools, the schools they considered were Nebraska, Missouri, Syracuse, Pitt, Rutgers, and Notre Dame. They settled on Nebraska for the time being, but it's not a coincidence that all of those schools were contiguous to the current model. It's also not a coincidence that MD was contiguous to Rutgers and Rutgers to PSU.

 

[HtownOrange]

I'm going on record saying that SU won't be a B10 consideration until we hear some announcement that we're pairing up with SUNY upstate medical (to get AAU back).

Or if ND wants us as their partner to join.

Both very unlikely scenarios.

They have already been under consideration for the past couple of years. You may be correct that they don't get the invite, but they have support within the B1G and it has already been determined that Syracuse was one of about 10 or 12 schools that would be acceptable (read financially and academically).

I still believe that we fit better among the ACC schools but have to protect our hind quarters and if the B1G, PAC or SEC come calling, we gotta go. Realistically, the SEC and PAC will not be calling anytime soon.