My conference expansion scenarios | Syracusefan.com

My conference expansion scenarios

CNYCentralCuse

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Niko from CNY Central here..

I'm working on an article on conference expansion...but wanted to give the board a sneak peak...and, probably, to tell me I'm nuts...anyway tell me what you think..before the masses crucify me..

My gut feeling..based on some private conversations..is SU is committed to the BE. Especially with new contract up next year and potential exciting opportunities with other outlets (including NBC, maybe could mean more ND vs. BE games than we already have...and that probably excites member schools) Who knows what network will land it though...either way a financial winfall is in order

Then you consider the impending death of the B-12---which as mentioned would most likely land Mizzou, K State, and Kansas with BE...that gives you a 12/20 fball and hoops model split into divisions like such:

Big East Football (West):
Mizzou
Kansas
K-State
Louisville
TCU
Cincy

Big East Football (East, for lack of a better term)
SU
UConn
RU
WVU
Pitt
USF

For Hoops, you take those divisions but then add:

West:
Notre Dame
DePaul
Marquette

East:
PC
St. John's
G-Town
Nova
Seton Hall

Uneven, yes, but I'm not smart enough to figure out what else to do...maybe take one of those East schools like Gtown and put them West, or add a Hoops only like Xavier for the west. That's about 15 steps in the future.

If football futher expands, of course assuming the impending Big 12 death...Baylor could be added to the West (another Texas school and traveling partner for TCU won't hurt...Waco's Nielson TV market isn't THAT big...slightly smaller than Syracuse...but it's Texas) UCF and it's Orlando market to the East.

That's my gut feeling as to what happens..

There's also the possibility that Texas (again) gets cold feet.

That brings us back to just one domino (A+M) and just one move left to make. IMHO SEC's #1 pick for team 14 would be VA Tech. If that happens, then you have to look at an ACC expansion scenario, which I truly believe SU would be choice #1...If all that happened I think Syracuse would have to go..

After the VA Tech option for the SEC, it's anybody's guess I seem to think West Virginia would be a high caliber candidate (remember no existing states...which excludes so many other teams...other than teams in NC, VA, WV, OK--which could be P-16 country) For sake of argument, if WVU is plucked, and B-12 is in tact, you have to assume ACC and Big 10 and all other BCS conf. are content and not poaching BE teams, it could be a stop gap add of UCF who I think is the strongest overall mid-major profile left out there...not counting Boise, BYU etc who would be a HUGE stretch for BE.

Thoughts

and comment again when the article is published, please :)
 

OrangeXtreme

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Missouri has been mentioned as the possible 14th team for the SEC.

Which gives the BE a choice between Iowa State or Baylor.

And put Seton Hall in the West. They belong with Depaul. (And put them both in the Atlantic 10 while you're at it. ;))
 

Toga

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It's been said before but the number of SU's scenarios hinges largely on if/where the SEC goes for additional team(s). It looks like we have the Kansas - K State option in hand but if the SEC grabs say two ACC teams, then who the hell knows what might come of that. Would love to see some sort of Atlantic Seaboard conference.
 

Brunco

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Thanks for sharing.
I don't think Notre Dame would allow themselves to be seperated from the NY, Philly and DC basketball schools, because of TV, recruiting, etc. Also, if Syracuse indeed wants to stay in the Big East then I'd think Villanova eventually gets added for football, which I assume is very much in the interest of the private schools in the league. This could be a concession of taking any Big 12 state schools in (not to mention why Baylor may get invited.)
 

jerrycuse

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This is going to be a long reply, but becuase evrything is interconnected it is the only way to understand how everything might work out. All moves impact other moves.

This is all based on A&M going to the SEC and then, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and OSU going to the Pac 10. I have always thought from the original ACC expansion days, conference expansion has such a huge impact on SU athletics and is the single most important factor facing the program. It has long-term, ongoing implications.

The Pac 10 will be the first super-conference and ridiculously stable. It will sit at 16 schools with a great assortment of teams and domination of a huge geographic area (about half the country). It is in a great position to negotiate major television deals and/or start network(s). I think this becomes the gold standard of college athletic conferences.

The big question becomes what is the next step. I think to understand this, you have to determine who is in a position to make the next move (SEC and Big 10). They are the most stable and are end-game conference for any school. Any other moves could be trumped down the road if one of these conferences comes asking. I’ll give an example.

If the two moves above (A&M to SEC, and 4 schools to the Pac 10) occur, the Big 12 is done. There are five schools left (Kansas, KSU, Missouri, ISU, Baylor). The next move to actually occur may be for the BE to invite Kansas, KSU and Missouri. They may even accept. Great. The BE is at 12 football schools, thinking they can do some type of east west thing and live happy ever after. The only problem, any school (one of those three or the “original 9” would jump in a second to the Big 10, ACC so SEC. So these moves really don’t matter.

Similarly, the ACC could be “proactive” and get to 16, but it is all for nothing if one of the 16 later jumps.

So if there are only two deciders (Big 10 and SEC), what do they do? Note in no way do I think they are working together, or in conjunction, they are just the only two that can truly be proactive.

Big 10

I think originally the Big 10 starts and stops with ND. That is the one they want and the one they can wait for. I think ND says 'no' again. There is no one else out there worth the Big 10 splitting the pie another way, so I think they stay put and await the SEC's repsonse.

SEC

The SEC is at 13 and they have to do something. Also, the Pac 10 is at 16. There is no way this sits well with the SEC. They have to get to 16.

One way would be to try stick to their stated (rumored??) gentlemen’s agreement of not expanding within states they already occupy. They could add Missouri to the West and then try and get VPI and NC State to the East. If one of them says no, they can go with WVU instead. As far as I can tell, those are pretty much the options and they are not sexy at all. The Pac 10 adds UT and OU, and they are going to respond with that? No way. The SEC has to go big.

I think the realistic plan would be Florida State to the East. Again, similar to Nebraska to the Big 10, you want one of the handful of marquee football programs going forward. I also think FSU is a good ‘fit’. If they do want to stick to East and West, Missouri appears to be the only option West. As far as I can tell, there are just no other options. (The SEC just added a second tier Texas school, they don’t need a third tier school. There is nothing left in Oklahoma and they don’t want Kansas anyway. Louisville doesn’t 'fit' and there really isn’t anyone else.) So they add Missouri and need one more on the East side to get to 16. The good news from their perspective is they have made two very solid moves so far. They got into Texas with A&M and they added a marquee program with FSU. I think it comes down to, in order, Miami, NC State, Virginia Tech and Clemson. I ruled out WVU due to the distance and lack of overall attractiveness. I also ruled out Georgia Tech due to the ‘fit’.

Miami was the hardest one judge. Ultimately, I put them first because they are the biggest name available. I think that is the biggest factor. I do not know how receptive they would be though. It seems as if there football program is a love/hate relationship. They love it for all the good it brings (money and exposure) but hate it for the bad (mainly exposure). I think they want to be viewed as a top academic institution first and I am not sure if a move to the SEC helps that goal, especially with all of the drama currently surrounding the program. There is also the small, private school angle. Ultimately, something tells me this doesn’t happen. Not sure if it comes from the SEC (3 schools in one state?) or Miami, but I don’t think it gets done. I also think Miami likes where it is in the ACC.

Filling-in states North Carolina is next and it is a big one. No way UNC leaves Duke and its basketball-centric conference. I really don’t know much about NC State and if they would do it. To be honest, neither answer would surprise me. They could be happy with UNC, Duke and Wake and stay put. They could also want to get out of big brother’s shadow, and all that comes with it, and jump at the money. Where have we seen this before? So no idea if they take it, but if they do, I think the SEC did just fine with A&M, Mizzou, FSU and NC State. A good mix of football programs and geographic expansion.

If NC State says no, I think VPI is next. Another large state school in an untapped market. As much as I hate to say it, what a run for this school. From the Metro Conference to partial Big East member, to left out of the ACC, to into the ACC expansion through political intervention (after suing), to potential SEC member. The crazy part is, I don’t know if they say 'yes'. They have always wanted the ACC and they have it. Would they leave? I also don’t know if they want SEC football. They have a pretty good thing going (i.e. small pond). I think they might actually decline.

Last up would be Clemson who accepts in a second. I think they view themselves as a southern football school, and if that’s what you are, you want to be on the main stage.

So now the SEC is at 16 with A&M, Mizzou, FSU and another ACC team (likely NC State or Clemson).
There are now two conferences at 16, the Big 10 is still at 12 and the ACC is at 10. The only place for both left to look is the BE and Big 12 leftovers. For those thinking the BE should raid the weakened ACC, I still do not see it. The BE is a mess of a hybrid conference of 17 teams. In my opinion, any BE football playing school(s) would leave the BE to join to 10 ACC schools in a second before the other way around. Also, regarding tv contracts, it is short-term to assume the BE will get a bigger one and the ACC is stuck with its smaller one. If everything gets blown up, won’t they all re-negotiate anyway?

Big 10

One thing to note, because the SEC acted first, they got Mizzou. It seems to me Mizzou would probably rather be in the Big 10. Maybe they could work that offer to get one from Big 10 and that could blow some things up. There really isn’t anyone left West for the SEC. Do they stop at 14 with A&M and FSU? Do they give up the East/West or reshuffle (who really cares where Kentucky is for football? I think basketball is all one group anyway) and add 3 on the East? This will have a trickle effect throughout, but I do think it could be an option.

Again the conversation starts with the Big 10 and ND. Now maybe both sides are a little more inclined to make it work. If ND says yes, I think the Big 10 grabs them and at least one more.
I think the schools that are ‘fits’ are Pitt, Syracuse and Maryland. I think all three are legitimate BCS-caliber schools. Pitt and Syracuse have tradition. Syracuse brings an inroad into NYC (how much probably depends on who you ask). They also are in the State of New York (potentially in regards to the Big 10 Network and cable providers). Maryland has a prime location, new markets and potential. I think all three would be schools the Big 10 could accept. I think Pitt and Syracuse say 'yes' in a second (grab a life boat). I am not sure about Maryland. While the money and stability would be very attractive, I don’t know if they leave Duke and UNC. I also don’t know if they would want to join a Midwest conference. I think they may say no and stick it out with whatever is left of the ACC. Also, the Big 10 may not be forced to go to 16. Why not add ND + 1 and slice the pie 14 ways, especially if the 15th and 16th teams decrease the relative size of the pie. I see the Big 10 being more content to stay in a situation if they think it is good for them and not feel obligated to keep up with the Jones (i.e. having 11 teams and skipping out on a conference championship for a long time).

I think the next tier includes UConn and Rutgers. UConn is a solid athletic program as a whole, are on the rise, and do help with the whole New York market. The tradition is non-existent and I just don’t know how well it fits. I guess it depends how far forward the Big 10 wants to look and how much confidence they have in the school. (To me, losing Edsall and hiring Pasqualoni did not seem like the most forward looking move for a program trying to be on the rise…) Rutgers is just not a big-time program. They were terrible forever (on the field and as a reflection of their athletic department). A couple solid years and they became the Johnny-come-lately, but I do not know if it is built on a solid foundation and they seem below the Big 10. They may bring a nice market but that is it. They are the anti-Nebraska. I do not think West Virginia due to academics plus the poor market value. I just don’t see it. Kansas I just don’t see either. Big state school, but not much of a market and not much tradition.

So my prediction, Big 10 goes to 14 with ND and Pitt or Syracuse. If no ND, my gut tells me they stay at 12.

ACC

Either way the ACC is at 10. I think they have to get back to 12 and have to look to the northeast. I think their top two choices are Syracuse and UConn. I think it helps them solidify the northeast with BC. It adds to their basketball power, and both bring just enough football. If they have to go deeper, I think Pitt first and then Rutgers second. Even though it hasn’t been rumored a lot, I would think Pitt should be an attractive option, even if off the coast a bit (and aren’t we well past that point). I don’t think any of the other BE schools are attractive fits primarily through academics and/or location.

Big East

The Big East does what it always does and scrapes and survives. All the members that are left grab any Big 12 schools and whatever else they can find and make a conference. I think they survive but are a tier below. If it is still a BCS world, maybe they lose an automatic bid, or get one when the Big 4 each get two, or they do a head-to-head with the Mountain West. They survive, they still have some programs, but the gap has widened.

Going through the exercise, I actually don’t know if it will be 4-16 team conferences. I think conferences will only go to 16 if it adds value. I think that tends to get lost. It is easy to look at it from a high level and just divide the teams up, but there may be some teams every conference doesn’t want. Alliances will only be made if they add value for both. I also don’t think conferences will have to act. For example, if the Big 10 stays at 12, they will still have value and a seat at the table.
 

WickedOrange

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This is going to be a long reply, but becuase evrything is interconnected it is the only way to understand how everything might work out. All moves impact other moves.

If the two moves above (A&M to SEC, and 4 schools to the Pac 10) occur, the Big 12 is done. There are five schools left (Kansas, KSU, Missouri, ISU, Baylor). The next move to actually occur may be for the BE to invite Kansas, KSU and Missouri. They may even accept. Great. The BE is at 12 football schools, thinking they can do some type of east west thing and live happy ever after. The only problem, any school (one of those three or the “original 9” would jump in a second to the Big 10, ACC so SEC. So these moves really don’t matter.

Similarly, the ACC could be “proactive” and get to 16, but it is all for nothing if one of the 16 later jumps.

If I was AD at Missouri, I would not be in any rush to jump to the Big East. I would rather take my chances and wait for the rest of the tectonic shifts.

I don't see NC State in the SEC, I say they go VPI. I also think Rutgers is more attrative to the big 10 than I want to admit. A big state flagship school that will put the big 10 product (product being the team playing Rutgers) within a direct train ride of NYC.

But I bet ND can pick who it brings to the big 10 as a date and it's not going to be Rutgers.
 

44PRIDE

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Virginia Tech isn't going anywhere...

The much hated Frank The Tank had an interesting thought on why Virginia state politics would prevent Va Tech from leaving the ACC.

Basically, he says that VA politicians had to pull alot of favors to get Va Tech into the league over SU. For Va Tech to up and leave the ACC high-n-dry after only 8 years would embarrass more than a few powerful individuals in VA political circles.
 

SURules

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Excellent post!! Like someone else said above, I just don't see NC State going to the SEC but I can definitely see VPI going in a heart beat. So FSU & VPI out of the ACC to the SEC. I also can see the ACC adding UConn and our beloved 'Cuse. We were in the original plans and have support from many (not all) of the schools. I just don't see us in the Big10 as the next two schools ( if Texas goes to the Pac16 ). Big10 would add ND and Pitt if ND says "yes" like you said. Now will the ACC go back to 12 or all the way to 16 is the big question. Syracuse & UConn seem like great fits for 11 & 12. I feel for the left overs which we could be a left over for sure. If the Big10 goes to 16 then we might be #16 but is the financial value there like you said. ACC seems like a better bet.

Now if the SEC adds aTm, FSU, andVPI, who will be the next? WVU? to get to 16.
 

CNYCentralCuse

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First off, Thanks everyone for your responses, I may reference you guys in the article!

but just as I write this long, thought out thing..Chip Brown of Orangebloods.com (who has along with Pete Thamel of the NY Times been at the forefront of this) puts out this article: http://texas./content.asp?CID=1261031
Nothing concrete of course, but interesting "source" info about ACC reaching out to Texas, SU, RU Uconn
 

SaintTristan

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This is going to be a long reply, but becuase evrything is interconnected it is the only way to understand how everything might work out. All moves impact other moves.

This is all based on A&M going to the SEC and then, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and OSU going to the Pac 10. I have always thought from the original ACC expansion days, conference expansion has such a huge impact on SU athletics and is the single most important factor facing the program. It has long-term, ongoing implications.

The Pac 10 will be the first super-conference and ridiculously stable. It will sit at 16 schools with a great assortment of teams and domination of a huge geographic area (about half the country). It is in a great position to negotiate major television deals and/or start network(s). I think this becomes the gold standard of college athletic conferences.

The big question becomes what is the next step. I think to understand this, you have to determine who is in a position to make the next move (SEC and Big 10). They are the most stable and are end-game conference for any school. Any other moves could be trumped down the road if one of these conferences comes asking. I’ll give an example.

If the two moves above (A&M to SEC, and 4 schools to the Pac 10) occur, the Big 12 is done. There are five schools left (Kansas, KSU, Missouri, ISU, Baylor). The next move to actually occur may be for the BE to invite Kansas, KSU and Missouri. They may even accept. Great. The BE is at 12 football schools, thinking they can do some type of east west thing and live happy ever after. The only problem, any school (one of those three or the “original 9” would jump in a second to the Big 10, ACC so SEC. So these moves really don’t matter.

Similarly, the ACC could be “proactive” and get to 16, but it is all for nothing if one of the 16 later jumps.

So if there are only two deciders (Big 10 and SEC), what do they do? Note in no way do I think they are working together, or in conjunction, they are just the only two that can truly be proactive.

Big 10

I think originally the Big 10 starts and stops with ND. That is the one they want and the one they can wait for. I think ND says 'no' again. There is no one else out there worth the Big 10 splitting the pie another way, so I think they stay put and await the SEC's repsonse.

SEC

The SEC is at 13 and they have to do something. Also, the Pac 10 is at 16. There is no way this sits well with the SEC. They have to get to 16.

One way would be to try stick to their stated (rumored??) gentlemen’s agreement of not expanding within states they already occupy. They could add Missouri to the West and then try and get VPI and NC State to the East. If one of them says no, they can go with WVU instead. As far as I can tell, those are pretty much the options and they are not sexy at all. The Pac 10 adds UT and OU, and they are going to respond with that? No way. The SEC has to go big.

I think the realistic plan would be Florida State to the East. Again, similar to Nebraska to the Big 10, you want one of the handful of marquee football programs going forward. I also think FSU is a good ‘fit’. If they do want to stick to East and West, Missouri appears to be the only option West. As far as I can tell, there are just no other options. (The SEC just added a second tier Texas school, they don’t need a third tier school. There is nothing left in Oklahoma and they don’t want Kansas anyway. Louisville doesn’t 'fit' and there really isn’t anyone else.) So they add Missouri and need one more on the East side to get to 16. The good news from their perspective is they have made two very solid moves so far. They got into Texas with A&M and they added a marquee program with FSU. I think it comes down to, in order, Miami, NC State, Virginia Tech and Clemson. I ruled out WVU due to the distance and lack of overall attractiveness. I also ruled out Georgia Tech due to the ‘fit’.

Miami was the hardest one judge. Ultimately, I put them first because they are the biggest name available. I think that is the biggest factor. I do not know how receptive they would be though. It seems as if there football program is a love/hate relationship. They love it for all the good it brings (money and exposure) but hate it for the bad (mainly exposure). I think they want to be viewed as a top academic institution first and I am not sure if a move to the SEC helps that goal, especially with all of the drama currently surrounding the program. There is also the small, private school angle. Ultimately, something tells me this doesn’t happen. Not sure if it comes from the SEC (3 schools in one state?) or Miami, but I don’t think it gets done. I also think Miami likes where it is in the ACC.

Filling-in states North Carolina is next and it is a big one. No way UNC leaves Duke and its basketball-centric conference. I really don’t know much about NC State and if they would do it. To be honest, neither answer would surprise me. They could be happy with UNC, Duke and Wake and stay put. They could also want to get out of big brother’s shadow, and all that comes with it, and jump at the money. Where have we seen this before? So no idea if they take it, but if they do, I think the SEC did just fine with A&M, Mizzou, FSU and NC State. A good mix of football programs and geographic expansion.

If NC State says no, I think VPI is next. Another large state school in an untapped market. As much as I hate to say it, what a run for this school. From the Metro Conference to partial Big East member, to left out of the ACC, to into the ACC expansion through political intervention (after suing), to potential SEC member. The crazy part is, I don’t know if they say 'yes'. They have always wanted the ACC and they have it. Would they leave? I also don’t know if they want SEC football. They have a pretty good thing going (i.e. small pond). I think they might actually decline.

Last up would be Clemson who accepts in a second. I think they view themselves as a southern football school, and if that’s what you are, you want to be on the main stage.

So now the SEC is at 16 with A&M, Mizzou, FSU and another ACC team (likely NC State or Clemson).
There are now two conferences at 16, the Big 10 is still at 12 and the ACC is at 10. The only place for both left to look is the BE and Big 12 leftovers. For those thinking the BE should raid the weakened ACC, I still do not see it. The BE is a mess of a hybrid conference of 17 teams. In my opinion, any BE football playing school(s) would leave the BE to join to 10 ACC schools in a second before the other way around. Also, regarding tv contracts, it is short-term to assume the BE will get a bigger one and the ACC is stuck with its smaller one. If everything gets blown up, won’t they all re-negotiate anyway?

Big 10

One thing to note, because the SEC acted first, they got Mizzou. It seems to me Mizzou would probably rather be in the Big 10. Maybe they could work that offer to get one from Big 10 and that could blow some things up. There really isn’t anyone left West for the SEC. Do they stop at 14 with A&M and FSU? Do they give up the East/West or reshuffle (who really cares where Kentucky is for football? I think basketball is all one group anyway) and add 3 on the East? This will have a trickle effect throughout, but I do think it could be an option.

Again the conversation starts with the Big 10 and ND. Now maybe both sides are a little more inclined to make it work. If ND says yes, I think the Big 10 grabs them and at least one more.
I think the schools that are ‘fits’ are Pitt, Syracuse and Maryland. I think all three are legitimate BCS-caliber schools. Pitt and Syracuse have tradition. Syracuse brings an inroad into NYC (how much probably depends on who you ask). They also are in the State of New York (potentially in regards to the Big 10 Network and cable providers). Maryland has a prime location, new markets and potential. I think all three would be schools the Big 10 could accept. I think Pitt and Syracuse say 'yes' in a second (grab a life boat). I am not sure about Maryland. While the money and stability would be very attractive, I don’t know if they leave Duke and UNC. I also don’t know if they would want to join a Midwest conference. I think they may say no and stick it out with whatever is left of the ACC. Also, the Big 10 may not be forced to go to 16. Why not add ND + 1 and slice the pie 14 ways, especially if the 15th and 16th teams decrease the relative size of the pie. I see the Big 10 being more content to stay in a situation if they think it is good for them and not feel obligated to keep up with the Jones (i.e. having 11 teams and skipping out on a conference championship for a long time).

I think the next tier includes UConn and Rutgers. UConn is a solid athletic program as a whole, are on the rise, and do help with the whole New York market. The tradition is non-existent and I just don’t know how well it fits. I guess it depends how far forward the Big 10 wants to look and how much confidence they have in the school. (To me, losing Edsall and hiring Pasqualoni did not seem like the most forward looking move for a program trying to be on the rise…) Rutgers is just not a big-time program. They were terrible forever (on the field and as a reflection of their athletic department). A couple solid years and they became the Johnny-come-lately, but I do not know if it is built on a solid foundation and they seem below the Big 10. They may bring a nice market but that is it. They are the anti-Nebraska. I do not think West Virginia due to academics plus the poor market value. I just don’t see it. Kansas I just don’t see either. Big state school, but not much of a market and not much tradition.

So my prediction, Big 10 goes to 14 with ND and Pitt or Syracuse. If no ND, my gut tells me they stay at 12.

ACC

Either way the ACC is at 10. I think they have to get back to 12 and have to look to the northeast. I think their top two choices are Syracuse and UConn. I think it helps them solidify the northeast with BC. It adds to their basketball power, and both bring just enough football. If they have to go deeper, I think Pitt first and then Rutgers second. Even though it hasn’t been rumored a lot, I would think Pitt should be an attractive option, even if off the coast a bit (and aren’t we well past that point). I don’t think any of the other BE schools are attractive fits primarily through academics and/or location.

Big East

The Big East does what it always does and scrapes and survives. All the members that are left grab any Big 12 schools and whatever else they can find and make a conference. I think they survive but are a tier below. If it is still a BCS world, maybe they lose an automatic bid, or get one when the Big 4 each get two, or they do a head-to-head with the Mountain West. They survive, they still have some programs, but the gap has widened.

Going through the exercise, I actually don’t know if it will be 4-16 team conferences. I think conferences will only go to 16 if it adds value. I think that tends to get lost. It is easy to look at it from a high level and just divide the teams up, but there may be some teams every conference doesn’t want. Alliances will only be made if they add value for both. I also don’t think conferences will have to act. For example, if the Big 10 stays at 12, they will still have value and a seat at the table.

you make a big, faulty presupposition in your post and then walk it back in your last para. well done - not every conf will go to 16 teams. Thats not going to happen. Rutgers is in a tier above SU from the perspective of the other conferences.
 

Cuseman78

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you make a big, faulty presupposition in your post and then walk it back in your last para. well done - not every conf will go to 16 teams. Thats not going to happen. Rutgers is in a tier above SU from the perspective of the other conferences.

Rutgers is in a tier above SU for the Big 10 (land grant, AAU membership) but I think Syracuse is higher in the pecking order if the ACC were to come calling
 

orangephan

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You put a lot of time and thought into your analysis. It's quite interesting and I have to agree with a lot of what you say, especially the B10 being the most conservative of the big 4 and bringing in ND or nobody. If ND accepts, it'll be Pitt or SU as their preferred dance partner. I'm not quite sure if Mizz wants the SEC, but they'd more than likely accept for the $$$ and security. That said, Mizz desparately wants the B10, but that just may not happen unless they go to 16. From a market standpoint, VT makes the most sense for the SEC and adds program value. NC St adds Carolina marketwise, but the program value isn't as high. Clemson, except for the USCar factor, is a reasonable choice. Fla St is a given, IMO, bcause of name(think Neb)/program quality/market value, regardless of the UF factor. UMD to the B10(see Mizz above)? They'd accept for the $$$ and security. ACC redeux? Yes, SU, UCONN, Pitt, Rutgers and/or possibly WVU(academics/market somewhat of a consideration), all fit the model. Some real wild thoughts, and I don't necessarilly advocate - Baylor as #15/#16 in the SEC and Nova to the ACC in a mega-merge(16). I won't elaborate, but maybe a few of you may see the logic.
 

VaSaltine

Starter
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T
Virginia Tech isn't going anywhere...

The much hated Frank The Tank had an interesting thought on why Virginia state politics would prevent Va Tech from leaving the ACC.

Basically, he says that VA politicians had to pull alot of favors to get Va Tech into the league over SU. For Va Tech to up and leave the ACC high-n-dry after only 8 years would embarrass more than a few powerful individuals in VA political circles.
This is very true. Va Tech is going nowhere...guaranteed.
 

orangephan

Walk On
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Aug 27, 2011
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As
Niko from CNY Central here..

I'm working on an article on conference expansion...but wanted to give the board a sneak peak...and, probably, to tell me I'm nuts...anyway tell me what you think..before the masses crucify me..

My gut feeling..based on some private conversations..is SU is committed to the BE. Especially with new contract up next year and potential exciting opportunities with other outlets (including NBC, maybe could mean more ND vs. BE games than we already have...and that probably excites member schools) Who knows what network will land it though...either way a financial winfall is in order

Then you consider the impending death of the B-12---which as mentioned would most likely land Mizzou, K State, and Kansas with BE...that gives you a 12/20 fball and hoops model split into divisions like such:

Big East Football (West):
Mizzou
Kansas
K-State
Louisville
TCU
Cincy

Big East Football (East, for lack of a better term)
SU
UConn
RU
WVU
Pitt
USF

For Hoops, you take those divisions but then add:

West:
Notre Dame
DePaul
Marquette

East:
PC
St. John's
G-Town
Nova
Seton Hall

Uneven, yes, but I'm not smart enough to figure out what else to do...maybe take one of those East schools like Gtown and put them West, or add a Hoops only like Xavier for the west. That's about 15 steps in the future.

If football futher expands, of course assuming the impending Big 12 death...Baylor could be added to the West (another Texas school and traveling partner for TCU won't hurt...Waco's Nielson TV market isn't THAT big...slightly smaller than Syracuse...but it's Texas) UCF and it's Orlando market to the East.

That's my gut feeling as to what happens..

There's also the possibility that Texas (again) gets cold feet.

That brings us back to just one domino (A+M) and just one move left to make. IMHO SEC's #1 pick for team 14 would be VA Tech. If that happens, then you have to look at an ACC expansion scenario, which I truly believe SU would be choice #1...If all that happened I think Syracuse would have to go..

After the VA Tech option for the SEC, it's anybody's guess I seem to think West Virginia would be a high caliber candidate (remember no existing states...which excludes so many other teams...other than teams in NC, VA, WV, OK--which could be P-16 country) For sake of argument, if WVU is plucked, and B-12 is in tact, you have to assume ACC and Big 10 and all other BCS conf. are content and not poaching BE teams, it could be a stop gap add of UCF who I think is the strongest overall mid-major profile left out there...not counting Boise, BYU etc who would be a HUGE stretch for BE.

Thoughts

and comment again when the article is published, please :)
As far as 12 &20, I can very much live with adding KU, KSU and Mizz. Baylor and ISU are a stretch and improbable unless we boot DePaul and one other. I like 'Orangemen's' 4 division config on another thread for BB: East: SU, UConn, GT, SJ, Prov; Mid-Atl: Nova, Pitt, WV, Rut, SH; Mid-West: ND, Marq, DeP, Cinci, L'ville; West: KU, KSU, Mizz, TCU, USF. Leave it there, but chances are, it will all change as the dominos fall.
 

KaiserUEO

2022 and 2x ESPN Tourney Challenge Winner
Joined
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we are at a point in the game, where nobody wants to hear your stupid little prediction seen in print. i can send you my prediction of the hour, on the hour, every hour...if you ask.

give us the hard cold facts. thats all we want.

find out what conference commissioners and presidents are thinking.

give us that.

otherwise, just post your 'award winning thoughts' on a message board or start a blog and advertise on a Area 51 blog site.

:eek:

as you were.
 

CNYCentralCuse

Walk On
Joined
Aug 31, 2011
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556
Judging by the replies of users with their thoughts, predictions etc. I'd say people are intersted in predictions from each other and local media outlets. Not just at this board but around the nation.

I'm sorry if me including the board in a local article, interacting with it and in turn giving it more publicity upsets you UEO...and are you really mocking the fact that a story on an American hero from this board won an award? I'd sincerely hope not.

To the rest of you, thanks for the interaction and your opinions!
 

orangepassion

Hall of Fame
Joined
Aug 14, 2011
Messages
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we are at a point in the game, where nobody wants to hear your stupid little prediction seen in print. i can send you my prediction of the hour, on the hour, every hour...if you ask.

give us the hard cold facts. thats all we want.

find out what conference commissioners and presidents are thinking.

give us that.

otherwise, just post your 'award winning thoughts' on a message board or start a blog and advertise on a Area 51 blog site.

:eek:

as you were.
Pleasant, as always:blah:
 

KaiserUEO

2022 and 2x ESPN Tourney Challenge Winner
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
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and are you really mocking the fact that a story on an American hero from this board won an award? I'd sincerely hope not.

i have no idea What this means or how it effects oklahoma/texas the big12 and an opinion piece which could be moot as soon as 10am tomorrow.

FWIW and IMHO, heres the likely outcome:

-SEC and Pac at 16
-big10 and acc at 12
-theres a new highbred big12/bigeast at 12 (for football)
-Syracuse in the ACC
-nd still an indy
-theres likely a new BCS-esque conf of leftovers at 12
-your Kaiser happy as ever for nothing on here ever upsets him

:noidea::eek:

everyone may want to save this......

:bat:

:rolling:
 

Rocco

Watching you.
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
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26,497
we are at a point in the game, where nobody wants to hear your stupid little prediction seen in print. i can send you my prediction of the hour, on the hour, every hour...if you ask.

give us the hard cold facts. thats all we want.

find out what conference commissioners and presidents are thinking.

give us that.

otherwise, just post your 'award winning thoughts' on a message board or start a blog and advertise on a Area 51 blog site.

:eek:

as you were.


So uncalled for Kaiser. That was harsh, please stop posting if you are going to try and humiliate someone.

Niko, thanks for your opinions. Keep them coming!!
 

IthacaMatt

Old Timer / Unofficial Contributor for 25+ years
Joined
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The thing I especially agree with in your very detailed analysis (Thanks !) is that you recognize that brand value is a key for TV contracts. That's why Miami won't go away, even if they get a really awful penalty. They already got whacked badly in the 90s. They will be back again.
 

SWC75

Bored Historian
Joined
Aug 26, 2011
Messages
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Niko from CNY Central here..

I'm working on an article on conference expansion...but wanted to give the board a sneak peak...and, probably, to tell me I'm nuts...anyway tell me what you think..before the masses crucify me..

My gut feeling..based on some private conversations..is SU is committed to the BE. Especially with new contract up next year and potential exciting opportunities with other outlets (including NBC, maybe could mean more ND vs. BE games than we already have...and that probably excites member schools) Who knows what network will land it though...either way a financial winfall is in order

Then you consider the impending death of the B-12---which as mentioned would most likely land Mizzou, K State, and Kansas with BE...that gives you a 12/20 fball and hoops model split into divisions like such:

Big East Football (West):
Mizzou
Kansas
K-State
Louisville
TCU
Cincy

Big East Football (East, for lack of a better term)
SU
UConn
RU
WVU
Pitt
USF

For Hoops, you take those divisions but then add:

West:
Notre Dame
DePaul
Marquette

East:
PC
St. John's
G-Town
Nova
Seton Hall

Uneven, yes, but I'm not smart enough to figure out what else to do...maybe take one of those East schools like Gtown and put them West, or add a Hoops only like Xavier for the west. That's about 15 steps in the future.

If football futher expands, of course assuming the impending Big 12 death...Baylor could be added to the West (another Texas school and traveling partner for TCU won't hurt...Waco's Nielson TV market isn't THAT big...slightly smaller than Syracuse...but it's Texas) UCF and it's Orlando market to the East.

That's my gut feeling as to what happens..

There's also the possibility that Texas (again) gets cold feet.

That brings us back to just one domino (A+M) and just one move left to make. IMHO SEC's #1 pick for team 14 would be VA Tech. If that happens, then you have to look at an ACC expansion scenario, which I truly believe SU would be choice #1...If all that happened I think Syracuse would have to go..

After the VA Tech option for the SEC, it's anybody's guess I seem to think West Virginia would be a high caliber candidate (remember no existing states...which excludes so many other teams...other than teams in NC, VA, WV, OK--which could be P-16 country) For sake of argument, if WVU is plucked, and B-12 is in tact, you have to assume ACC and Big 10 and all other BCS conf. are content and not poaching BE teams, it could be a stop gap add of UCF who I think is the strongest overall mid-major profile left out there...not counting Boise, BYU etc who would be a HUGE stretch for BE.

Thoughts

and comment again when the article is published, please :)

You're in the media. The whole problem is that confercnes used to be based on natural geogrpahical rivalries. Now they are based on uniting markets, (which is why the Big 12 would rather have Pittsburgh than TCU- they feel they already have Texas covered and they want to bring in a eastern team.) This is because the networks are really making the decisions in the TV packages they offer the conferences. So tell us what the netwroks want. What do they want college football to look like? What do they want the Big East to be?

Persoanlly, I think making decisons in this manner is a mistake- college sports don't play in the big markets. They've survived by representing the smaller markets that the pros don't bother with. The popularity of the Big East isn't based on how many people in New York City are watching the games on TV. it's based on how many people in places like Syracuse are watching.
 

HtownOrange

Living Legend
Joined
Aug 27, 2011
Messages
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Not sure why everyone is convinced that Syracuse goes to the ACC.

1) IF and ACC team or three go to the SEC, then the ACC is weaker than the Big East (FSU, VPI, Clemson, Virginia, UNC and NCState are rumored to go).
2) The ACC cannot renegtiate their terrible contract, they can add teams on par with the contract, perhaps, but not increase.
3) The Big East already rejected an offer from ESPN that exceeded the ACC contract and is expected to far exceed the ACC contract next fall when the Big East enters negotiations.
4) The B1G 10 has indicated they are not interested in expansion at this time - may be true, may be not - however, until the B1G 10 actually takes action, the Big East is not falling apart.
5) No reasonable team is headed to the very unstable Big 12, except for non-AQ schools.
6) The SEC could be interested in WVU and/or Louisville, but neither is likely as high on the list as FSU, VPI, UNC and NCState.
7) The Big East is in the driver's seat unless the B1G 10 acts before they do. We will be able to attract several other schools.
8) If superconferences are here to stay, expect the Big East to attempt to go to 16.

Chip Brown speaks many things, all of them Texas oriented, most are useless attention grabbers for his blog. Consider Texas would take a pay cut and lose their LHN, that is about $25MM LESS than they get now. It would be better for Texas to merge the MWC or WAC into the Big 12 than to join the ACC.
 

sutomcat

Co 2020-21 Iggy Award Winner MPG (special again)
Joined
Aug 15, 2011
Messages
20,381
Like
82,993
Great Point SWC--here's the link to the article:
http://www.cnycentral.com/sports/story.aspx?id=659886[/quote]
Nice article Niko. I have no idea what is going to happen, but I think short term the most interesting scenario, at least from SU's point of view, is T A&M goes the the SEC and they add V Tech to get to an even number and get the DC metro market.

The remaining Big 12 schools stay together, the Pac 10 and Big Ten do nothing and the ACC looks to replace V Tech with someone from the Big East. Under that scenario, as you say, they likely invite Syracuse. The question is, would Syracuse go?

It isn't a home run decision anymore.

Syracuse would actually be looking at less money moving to the ACC (the Big East will get more TV dollars with the new contract than the ACC is getting), and would have to pony up a big penalty fee to leave. You can argue there is more stability in the ACC but who is to say the SEC would stay at 14 members? The SEC is always going to be more profitable than the ACC...a lot of ACC schools would jump if given the chance. Losing all those conference games in the Northeast, losing MSG, losing the BET, this move would really hurt the fan base and alums in the Northeast would probably not be very happy.

The problem is, if SU doesn't go to the ACC, another Big East school likely will. Rutgers is so hungry for love and attention, it would accept an invitation from the Ivy League, the Big Ten, the ACC or the League of Women Voters Branch 187 as soon as it was offered.

You are right, Syracuse could be thrust right in the middle of this again, and if so, the decision on whether to jump or not will not be an easy one.

It would be a lot easier decision if the ACC agreed to take 4 other BE schools with Syracuse (Pitt, UConn, Rutgers and Nova or WVU). But live rarely breaks in a way that makes decisions easy, does it?
 

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