My third year theory

[SWC75]

Greg Robinson started out with a good defensive team that couldn't score and went 1-10. He got better the second year at 4-8 and I thought we were on the way up. then we had a 2-10 that couldn't compete on either side of the ball and was the worst Syracuse team I've ever seen. He was given another year and improved marginally to 3-9 but it wasn't enough.

Doug Marrone put most of his best players on defense to stay in games and was a more competitive 4-8. Then we went 8-5 including a bowl win and it seemed the clouds had been blown away. But in 2011 we struggled to a deceiving 5-2 start and ended the seasons with a five game losing streak during which he seemed to lose interest in the job. he came back the next year to again for 8-5 and win the same bowl game, then left for the Bills.

Scott Shafer came in and won a bowl game his first year. Last year we had one of the better defenses in the country but the offense got wiped out by injuries and we went 3-9. We were all hopeful of a comeback this year but, after a promising start, it's turned into a 6 game losing streak that will certainly grow to 7 and might result in another 3-9 year. The big problem, besides some of Shafer's decisions, is that the majority of our quality players are freshmen and sophomores. The upperclassmen are a pretty weak group overall so we are inexperienced, lack leadership and aren't as physically strong as our opponents.

My theory is that the third year of a rebuilding project is apt to be a disappointing one because the recruiting late in the previous regime will have fallen off, perhaps because the previous coaches tried of it, the frustrating losses discouraged recruits and rumors that the coaching staff was on their way out put them off. Then the actual coaching change at the height of the recruiting season tore a big hole in that class. The result was bound to show up in 3-4 years, when there would be fewer quality upperclassmen. The result would be a disappointing season and the result of that would a lot of folks saying "this isn't the guy- why wait any longer? Get another guy." Which continues the cycle.

I think we need to get to that fourth season. If we don't, prepare to be disappointed in the new guy in 2018.

 

[OrangeFoo]

Greg Robinson started out with a good defensive team that couldn't score and went 1-10. He got better the second year at 4-8 and I thought we were on the way up. then we had a 2-10 that couldn't compete on either side of the ball and was the worst Syracuse team I've ever seen. He was given another year and improved marginally to 3-9 but it wasn't enough.

Doug Marrone put most of his best players on defense to stay in games and was a more competitive 4-8. Then we went 8-5 including a bowl win and it seemed the clouds had been blown away. But in 2011 we struggled to a deceiving 5-2 start and ended the seasons with a five game losing streak during which he seemed to lose interest in the job. he came back the next year to again for 8-5 and win the same bowl game, then left for the Bills.

Scott Shafer came in and won a bowl game his first year. Last year we had one of the better defenses in the country but the offense got wiped out by injuries and we went 3-9. We were all hopeful of a comeback this year but, after a promising start, it's turned into a 6 game losing streak that will certainly grow to 7 and might result in another 3-9 year. The big problem, besides some of Shafer's decisions, is that the majority of our quality players are freshmen and sophomores. The upperclassmen are a pretty weak group overall so we are inexperienced, lack leadership and aren't as physically strong as our opponents.

My theory is that the third year of a rebuilding project is apt to be a disappointing one because the recruiting late in the previous regime will have fallen off, perhaps because the previous coaches tried of it, the frustrating losses discouraged recruits and rumors that the coaching staff was on their way out put them off. Then the actual coaching change at the height of the recruiting season tore a big hole in that class. The result was bound to show up in 3-4 years, when there would be fewer quality upperclassmen. The result would be a disappointing season and the result of that would a lot of folks saying "this isn't the guy- why wait any longer? Get another guy." Which continues the cycle.

I think we need to get to that fourth season. If we don't, prepare to be disappointed in the new guy in 2018.

I'd love to agree but folks have posted tons of data arguing the exact opposite.

My concerns have nothing to do with the record... it has everything to do with the continual pattern of coaching mistakes, inability to put a competent offense on the field, inability to stop a team which can both run and pass, inability to stop a spread qb who can run, and most damning his inability to beat a FBS team outside of wake forest and minnesota. When we play teams who we should beat we lose.

 

[MadNY3]

Shafer's third year should've been a helluva lot better based on what Marrone rebuilt over his four. Period.

 

[TheCusian]

Shafer's third year should've been a helluva lot better based on what Marrone rebuilt over his four. Period.

Not really. Marrone led teams for the most part were good defensive teams with poor/mediocre offenses. 2012 was a very nice start, but he blew it up and the coaches and skill players on offense were gone.

2013-14: good defensive team with poor/mediocre offense, same talent.
2015: bad defensive team with poor/mediocre offense, better talent.

Throw in poor game day coaching, a crap ton of injuries last year, youth this year: modest dip 3-9.

Not good enough, IMO. Just don't think it should be "helluva lot better"...

 

[Alsacs]

Does SS get blamed for hiring McDonald and then demoting him after 18 games?
Does SS get blamed for hiring an OL coach who never coached OL in college football?
Does SS get blamed for the fact we get worse in the 2nd half?
In our last 17 games against P5 we are 2-15 and both the wins are against Wake Forest.
In our 28 games against P5 in SS tenure we are 8-20. We are likely going to finish 9-22 at best.
The in-game mistakes are still there in year 3.
Keeping SS another year means praying for mediocrity.
I want to have a HC I believe gets it. I can be patience for the next guy as long as they show they get it. I don't think SS gets it.

 

[NineOneSeven]

It's time to move on.

 

[SoBristol]

Third year is when you find out if the coach knows how to build a team, and whether recruiting has moved in the right direction.

Can't use Marrone's third year as a good example. The defense was as banged up that year as Shafer's offense was last season.

 

[Scooch]

Not really. Marrone led teams for the most part were good defensive teams with poor/mediocre offenses. 2012 was a very nice start, but he blew it up and the coaches and skill players on offense were gone. 2013-14: good defensive team with poor/mediocre offense, same talent. 2015: bad defensive team with poor/mediocre offense, better talent. Throw in poor game day coaching, a crap ton of injuries last year, youth this year: modest dip 3-9. Not good enough, IMO. Just don't think it should be "helluva lot better"...

A better coach would be doing much better. There is tons of data supporting that.

Shafer took over a team that won 21 games in the 3 years prior and has spun that into 13, maybe 14.

Other coaches have inherited MUCH worse situations and performed better in year 3.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

And the 2010 was decimated with injuries as well, probably why we lost 5 in a row but I don't see Marrone getting the excuses or pass looking back.. ( No GO has not taken over my account)

 

[TheCusian]

A better coach would be doing much better. There is tons of data supporting that. Shafer took over a team that won 21 games in the 3 years prior and has spun that into 13, maybe 14. Other coaches have inherited MUCH worse situations and performed better in year 3.

Oh, I agree 100%. Wasn't my point. There is no doubt he's done worse than his predecessor. But by how much is very much exaggerated.

Marrone was mediocre but had to bring the thing up from a deep hole. Shafer's been worse than mediocre, but not by that much.

Point is: it's time for new blood. And I like this staff and appreciate much of what they've tried to do. It's just not working.

 

[TheCusian]

And the 2010 was decimated with injuries as well, probably why we lost 5 in a row but I don't see Marrone getting the excuses or pass looking back.. ( No GO has not taken over my account)

That was 2011. 2010 was Marrone's gift season with a super soft schedule providing the illusion things were better than they were. The offense was 2015 level bad... But he made a good DC hire and the defense made it work.

 

[CusefanATL]

Shafer's third year should've been a helluva lot better based on what Marrone rebuilt over his four. Period.

no. Shafer should be better than 3-6. but dont act like Marrone's 8-5 built us into a legit contender.

7-6 with a bowl game in SS 1st year was borderline miraculous.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

I love it. Another thread. Keep em coming.

 

[TheCusian]

I love it. Another thread. Keep em coming.

I was a staunch Shafer guy until the last two weeks. I get the support, I do. I want him to succeed here but I don't see very many reasons to hold out hope that things turnaround.

The youth should be getting better on O and D. It looks like last years nose dive, but with less injuries.

 

[Atlcuse44]

What Shafer & Co have shown me is that they can't gameplan & can't make the proper adjustments in game. With Marrone, you knew we would have a decent gameplan and be somewhat competitive given our limited talent. I like Shafer but not everyone is meant to be a HC.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

I was a staunch Shafer guy until the last two weeks. I get the support, I do. I want him to succeed here but I don't see very many reasons to hold out hope that things turnaround.

The youth should be getting better on O and D. It looks like last years nose dive, but with less injuries.

Meh I don't see that. I think the offensive guys (more of them have shown promise this year than in most years) Just real young. Oline is an issue. But should be better next year, IMO. And I have no doubt the D gets better next year having gotten a year older.

It doesn't matter really though.

I was really only commenting that we have another thread on the same damn topic. I though there was a "All inclusive" Coaching thread.

 

[orangeinjersey]

Greg Robinson started out with a good defensive team that couldn't score and went 1-10. He got better the second year at 4-8 and I thought we were on the way up. then we had a 2-10 that couldn't compete on either side of the ball and was the worst Syracuse team I've ever seen. He was given another year and improved marginally to 3-9 but it wasn't enough.

Doug Marrone put most of his best players on defense to stay in games and was a more competitive 4-8. Then we went 8-5 including a bowl win and it seemed the clouds had been blown away. But in 2011 we struggled to a deceiving 5-2 start and ended the seasons with a five game losing streak during which he seemed to lose interest in the job. he came back the next year to again for 8-5 and win the same bowl game, then left for the Bills.

Scott Shafer came in and won a bowl game his first year. Last year we had one of the better defenses in the country but the offense got wiped out by injuries and we went 3-9. We were all hopeful of a comeback this year but, after a promising start, it's turned into a 6 game losing streak that will certainly grow to 7 and might result in another 3-9 year. The big problem, besides some of Shafer's decisions, is that the majority of our quality players are freshmen and sophomores. The upperclassmen are a pretty weak group overall so we are inexperienced, lack leadership and aren't as physically strong as our opponents.

My theory is that the third year of a rebuilding project is apt to be a disappointing one because the recruiting late in the previous regime will have fallen off, perhaps because the previous coaches tried of it, the frustrating losses discouraged recruits and rumors that the coaching staff was on their way out put them off. Then the actual coaching change at the height of the recruiting season tore a big hole in that class. The result was bound to show up in 3-4 years, when there would be fewer quality upperclassmen. The result would be a disappointing season and the result of that would a lot of folks saying "this isn't the guy- why wait any longer? Get another guy." Which continues the cycle.

I think we need to get to that fourth season. If we don't, prepare to be disappointed in the new guy in 2018.

But scooch started a thread earlier this week that pretty much says, based on the data, the guys that are successful have turned it around by year 3, and those who arent, havent. Its time to move on guys. The poll says the board is in favor 70/30 for a change. This isnt a vocal minority.

 

[qdawgg]

I love it. Another thread. Keep em coming.

Don't read. Pretty simple stuff. Isn't it more silly to constantly harp on threads about the coaching staff when you chose to open the thread and read through it. :bang:

 

[HeaterCuse22]

Don't read. Pretty simple stuff. Isn't it more silly to constantly harp on threads about the coaching staff when you chose to open the thread and read through it. :bang:

Thanks for the advice. I clicked on the thread because SWC one of the most respected posters here wrote it.

 

[Alsacs]

Meh I don't see that. I think the offensive guys (more of them have shown promise this year than in most years) Just real young. Oline is an issue. But should be better next year, IMO. And I have no doubt the D gets better next year having gotten a year older.

It doesn't matter really though.

I was really only commenting that we have another thread on the same damn topic. I though there was a "All inclusive" Coaching thread.

Joe Adam had zero OL coaching experience at the college football level but he was hired by Scott Shafer.
Our OL has regressed in 2014 and 2015 and the upper class men talent at OL was pretty decent.
SS should take the blame for this hire. I could pull up a ten page thread when Adam was hired where a lot of people were questioning this hire and didn't like it. Our OL being bad is on the HC as he was left a plus OL when he took over.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Meh I don't see that. I think the offensive guys (more of them have shown promise this year than in most years) Just real young. Oline is an issue. But should be better next year, IMO. And I have no doubt the D gets better next year having gotten a year older.

It doesn't matter really though.

I was really only commenting that we have another thread on the same damn topic. I though there was a "All inclusive" Coaching thread.

Why do you think the o line will be better next year?

The all inclusive coaching thread is for possible hires, it's actually much more interesting that discussing how much we lose by this weekend.

 

[Scooch]

But scooch started a thread earlier this week that pretty much says, based on the data, the guys that are successful have turned it around by year 3, and those who arent, havent. Its time to move on guys. The poll says the board is in favor 70/30 for a change. This isnt a vocal minority.

Data schmata. Let's talk more about how people FEEL things should be!

 

[Chip]

I think most that would support a 4th year think it's the fair thing to do or the right thing to do for a nice guy. I'm not sure how many of them really think that long term, Shafer can turn us into more than a 6 win type.

So when I think of fairness or the right thing to do, then I immediately think of annual salary. That's a lot of nickels. And he's going to get them all either way.

 

[Scooch]

Greg Robinson started out with a good defensive team that couldn't score and went 1-10. He got better the second year at 4-8 and I thought we were on the way up. then we had a 2-10 that couldn't compete on either side of the ball and was the worst Syracuse team I've ever seen. He was given another year and improved marginally to 3-9 but it wasn't enough.

Doug Marrone put most of his best players on defense to stay in games and was a more competitive 4-8. Then we went 8-5 including a bowl win and it seemed the clouds had been blown away. But in 2011 we struggled to a deceiving 5-2 start and ended the seasons with a five game losing streak during which he seemed to lose interest in the job. he came back the next year to again for 8-5 and win the same bowl game, then left for the Bills.

Scott Shafer came in and won a bowl game his first year. Last year we had one of the better defenses in the country but the offense got wiped out by injuries and we went 3-9. We were all hopeful of a comeback this year but, after a promising start, it's turned into a 6 game losing streak that will certainly grow to 7 and might result in another 3-9 year. The big problem, besides some of Shafer's decisions, is that the majority of our quality players are freshmen and sophomores. The upperclassmen are a pretty weak group overall so we are inexperienced, lack leadership and aren't as physically strong as our opponents.

My theory is that the third year of a rebuilding project is apt to be a disappointing one because the recruiting late in the previous regime will have fallen off, perhaps because the previous coaches tried of it, the frustrating losses discouraged recruits and rumors that the coaching staff was on their way out put them off. Then the actual coaching change at the height of the recruiting season tore a big hole in that class. The result was bound to show up in 3-4 years, when there would be fewer quality upperclassmen. The result would be a disappointing season and the result of that would a lot of folks saying "this isn't the guy- why wait any longer? Get another guy." Which continues the cycle.

I think we need to get to that fourth season. If we don't, prepare to be disappointed in the new guy in 2018.

http://syracusefan.com/threads/year-3-tends-to-be-when-you-kinda-sorta-know.95769/

 

[qdawgg]

Thanks for the advice. I clicked on the thread because SWC one of the most respected posters here wrote it.

But you clicked on a thread that was clearly about coaching and then essentially complain about another coaching thread. I get you clicked on it because of SWC but it was still a coaching thread that was going to end up being a discussion about Shafer.