My third year theory

[orangeinjersey]

Data schmata. Let's talk more about how people FEEL things should be!

These folks are sounding just as optimistically delusional as HCSS himself. The worst part is, these pro-shafer folks would consider 6-6 a good season next year.VINDICATION!!!! smh

 

[FrancoPizza]

I think most that would support a 4th year think it's the fair thing to do or the right thing to do for a nice guy.

Honestly I'm sick of people bringing up that he's a nice guy. That's completely irrelevant to his evaluation. If the first thing you say about someone is, "he's nice"... it's a pretty damning lead-in. That's what you say about girls you have no interest in or want to let someone down easier. "You're nice and all... BUT... "

If being nice mattered, JB would've had a very short tenure here.

BRING ME AN A-HOLE WHO CAN WIN AT BLACKJACK.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Honestly I'm sick of people bringing up that he's a nice guy. That's completely irrelevant to his evaluation. If the first thing you say about someone is, "he's nice"... it's a pretty damning lead-in. That's what you say about girls you have no interest in or want to let someone down easier. "You're nice and all... BUT... "

If being nice mattered, JB would've had a very short tenure here.

BRING ME AN A-HOLE WHO CAN WIN AT BLACKJACK.

Really a good point and you are 100% right

 

[orangecuse]

Honestly I'm sick of people bringing up that he's a nice guy. That's completely irrelevant to his evaluation. If the first thing you say about someone is, "he's nice"... it's a pretty damning lead-in. That's what you say about girls you have no interest in or want to let someone down easier. "You're nice and all... BUT... "

If being nice mattered, JB would've had a very short tenure here.

BRING ME AN A-HOLE WHO CAN WIN AT BLACKJACK.

Ha! Like the sales rep that's a great person, gets along well with all his peers, follows protocol, etc., but fails to consistently bring in the all important sales...

Edit: As a Browns fan, of course we'd never want to hire a guy like that Belichick person again.

 

[OttoMets]

...

7-6 with a bowl game in SS 1st year was borderline miraculous.

This is a very strange characterization.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Honestly I'm sick of people bringing up that he's a nice guy. That's completely irrelevant to his evaluation. If the first thing you say about someone is, "he's nice"... it's a pretty damning lead-in. That's what you say about girls you have no interest in or want to let someone down easier. "You're nice and all... BUT... "

If being nice mattered, JB would've had a very short tenure here.

BRING ME AN A-HOLE WHO CAN WIN AT BLACKJACK.

Amen!

 

[Louie and Bouie]

Shafer's third year should've been a helluva lot better based on what Marrone rebuilt over his four. Period.

But scooch started a thread earlier this week that pretty much says, based on the data, the guys that are successful have turned it around by year 3, and those who arent, havent. Its time to move on guys. The poll says the board is in favor 70/30 for a change. This isnt a vocal minority.

These folks are sounding just as optimistically delusional as HCSS himself. The worst part is, these pro-shafer folks would consider 6-6 a good season next year.VINDICATION!!!! smh

So what is a good season in 2016/2017 in your mind? Over the last 2 seasons we have had 3 built-in losses (Clemson, FSU and an a 2-score underdog P5 i.e. LSU, ND) on our schedule and that will include 2016 and 2017 no matter who is coaching the team. Those losses are a due to a huge gap in talent not coaching (indisputable if you actually follow the program and college football). So, with a built in 0-3 over the next 2 years what are the expectations of the new regime? To get to 7-5 means you have to be 7-2 in your other 9 games. For the 8 win crowd that means 8-1 over those 9 games. Is that realistic when 6 of those 9 games will be in the ACC? What do people think is actually going to happen over the next 3 years from a W-L perspective? Where are the wins on the schedule that this new coach is going to guarantee? I would like to understand where these 7, 8 and 9 win seasons are going to come from in 2016 and 2017.

And how many seasons does the new coach to get us to this mythical promised land of 8 and 9 wins? Is the 3-year rule still in effect for them or they get more time for some undisclosed reason?

Please enlighten me as to how all of this is going to work. I'll hang up and listen.

 

[SWC75]

http://syracusefan.com/threads/year-3-tends-to-be-when-you-kinda-sorta-know.95769/

The fact is, what we have here at Syracuse fits my model precisely. We have a team where the vast majority of quality players are freshmen or sophomores. We are less experienced and not as physically strong as most of our opponents. The recruiting seems to be continuing at a higher level than previously and you'd have to think that next year's team will be better than this year's team and that we might have a chance for a real break through in 2017.

But if we tear it up right now, we might find ourselves with a another team that lacks quality juniors and seniors in around 2018.

Or perhaps the good recruiting Shafer and his staff have been doing will give the next guy a better foundation to work with and he can avoid that pitfall.

 

[Scooch]

The fact is, what we have here at Syracuse fits my model precisely. We have a team where the vast majority of quality players are freshmen or sophomores. We are less experienced and not as physically strong as most of our opponents. The recruiting seems to be continuing at a higher level than previously and you'd have to think that next year's team will be better than this year's team and that we might have a chance for a real break through in 2017.

But if we tear it up right now, we might find ourselves with a another team that lacks quality juniors and seniors in around 2018.

Or perhaps the good recruiting Shafer and his staff have been doing will give the next guy a better foundation to work with and he can avoid that pitfall.

I provided 20+ examples of teams in the top 35 now who were showing substantially more progress in year 3 than we are. If people think that SU football at this moment in time is an outlier unique to college football, that we will experience results unlike almost anyone else currently in the top 35, then that's fine.

And I would take issue with the characterization in your initial post that Shafer is in the midst of a "rebuild". Marrone did the rebuilding, or at least a healthy chunk of it. Shafer did not start from scratch, and his results should be held to that expectation, IMHO.

 

[qdawgg]

and NCState as I keep posting, is doing better than us starting over 20 freshman.

 

[rrlbees]

and NCState as I keep posting, is doing better than us starting over 20 freshman.

You said that in another thread and another poster pulled up their depth roster and it's 20 in the 3 deep. Not starters.

 

[qdawgg]

You said that in another thread and another poster pulled up their depth roster and it's 20 in the 3 deep. Not starters.

It was a game a 3 - 4 weeks ago in an ACC game and included ST's. I posted the link to the website on that day and week but can't find my link now using our search function.

 

[orangeinjersey]

So what is a good season in 2016/2017 in your mind? Over the last 2 seasons we have had 3 built-in losses (Clemson, FSU and an a 2-score underdog P5 i.e. LSU, ND) on our schedule and that will include 2016 and 2017 no matter who is coaching the team. Those losses are a due to a huge gap in talent not coaching (indisputable if you actually follow the program and college football). So, with a built in 0-3 over the next 2 years what are the expectations of the new regime? To get to 7-5 means you have to be 7-2 in your other 9 games. For the 8 win crowd that means 8-1 over those 9 games. Is that realistic when 6 of those 9 games will be in the ACC? What do people think is actually going to happen over the next 3 years from a W-L perspective? Where are the wins on the schedule that this new coach is going to guarantee? I would like to understand where these 7, 8 and 9 win seasons are going to come from in 2016 and 2017.

And how many seasons does the new coach to get us to this mythical promised land of 8 and 9 wins? Is the 3-year rule still in effect for them or they get more time for some undisclosed reason?

Please enlighten me as to how all of this is going to work. I'll hang up and listen.

If he loses out this year and goes 6-6 next year, not counting the crappy bowl opponent he'll have a 4 year record of 19-31. Sorry that doesn't cut it.

And why do games vs FSU and Clemson have to be auto losses? GaTech can beat them. NCState can beat them. A lot of other teams can at least keep the games competitive and close. With the exception of LSU this year I don't recall playing any ranked team close (don't consider Pitt in this group). SS as a the Head Football coach at SU has been awful. No if ands or buts. The only pro Shafer folk must know him personally or met him at some point, because his results on the football field are indefensible. Again, great guy, dad, mentor whatever, I get it. Head football coach, sorry.

Time to cut bait and start over.

 

[qdawgg]

It was a game a 3 - 4 weeks ago in an ACC game and included ST's. I posted the link to the website on that day and week but can't find my link now using our search function.

My bad I think. I can't find the right link but the game was against Boston College. I was looking at their overall depth chart and counting it's entirety I believe.

 

[Scooch]

SS as a the Head Football coach at SU has been awful. No if ands or buts.

I'm critical of Shafer but I disagree with that. I thought the job he did in 2013 was good. Yes there were a couple of real clunkers in there, but in a macro sense he took a team that lost it's QB, top 2 WRs and an NFL-caliber OLman and led them to just 1 less win than the year prior (a season now fetishized by the fine folks of SyracuseFan.com).

Last year was horrible, of course, but it's not unreasonable to grant Shafer a pass for that given the injuries.

This year is what's truly been disappointing. Our O is a mess, again, after he doubled-down on his OC without so much as interviewing anyone outside the program for the job. The D stinks, although I'm more lenient about that since I expected it to stink. Putting aside the consternation that people with in-game decisions, more troubling is that the staff seems to be "out adjusted" in nearly every game we play.

But anyway, his tenure hasn't been completely awful in its entirety, it's just trending that way.

 

[rrlbees]

My bad I think. I can't find the right link but the game was against Boston College. I was looking at their overall depth chart and counting it's entirety I believe.

Now that would make more sense. Thanks.

 

[TheCusian]

I'm critical of Shafer but I disagree with that. I thought the job he did in 2013 was good. Yes there were a couple of real clunkers in there, but in a macro sense he took a team that lost it's QB, top 2 WRs and an NFL-caliber OLman and led them to just 1 less win than the year prior (a season now fetishized by the fine folks of SyracuseFan.com). Last year was horrible, of course, but it's not unreasonable to grant Shafer a pass for that given the injuries. This year is what's truly been disappointing. Our O is a mess, again, after he doubled-down on his OC without so much as interviewing anyone outside the program for the job. The D stinks, although I'm more lenient about that since I expected it to stink. Putting aside the consternation that people with in-game decisions, more troubling is that the staff seems to be "out adjusted" in nearly every game we play. But anyway, his tenure hasn't been completely awful in its entirety, it's just trending that way.

That's it right there. A nice synopsis of what I've been saying for a while now.

I was fine giving him year 4 at 3 wins -- provided -- we were improving, especially on offense. Even given the tougher defenses and accounting for that - things are going backwards. Win 2 out of 3, I could see Coyle retaining him. But I'm a disbeliever until I see real offense/defense and lots of wins.

 

[Scooch]

The Third Year Theory is fine, but I prefer the Low End Theory...

 

[jgeorge322]

its tough to accept a theory as definitive when you are using the records of recent su football coaches. the only theory that really works is weve sucked for a prolong period now.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

its tough to accept a theory as definitive when you are using the records of recent su football coaches. the only theory that really works is weve sucked for a prolong period now.

Well that's what happens when you switch coaches every 4 years. Some highs with mostly lows.

 

[Alsacs]

Well that's what happens when you switch coaches every 4 years. Some highs with mostly lows.

So Greg Robinson should have remained HC after 4 years. Also, please tell me how Doug Marrone leaving for an NFL job is on SU for hiring a HC.
SS is not a HC. Bring in a new HC and patience will accepted with a real HC.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

So Greg Robinson should have remained HC after 4 years. Also, please tell me how Doug Marrone leaving for an NFL job is on SU for hiring a HC.
SS is not a HC. Bring in a new HC and patience will accepted with a real HC.

Its pretty clear patience will not be tolerated actually. But that's ok.

 

[Alsacs]

Its pretty clear patience will not be tolerated actually. But that's ok.

In 2009 our board was happy with a 4-8 record as the uptick in game preparation was obvious. Nobody was calling for DM's end after 2 years. People were ticked off in 2011 after losing the last 5 games and until the halfway point of 2013 anger was around but the last 6 games the board was happy.
SS has shown very little to earn patience. We have been blown out way too much. We aren't improving the young players and our coach is making same in-game mistakes still. Our recruiting is bottom 1/3 in the ACC.

SS did not take the program in 2009 he took over a 25-25 program. Even a 11-17 conference record is better than 6-15. We are going backwards. SS isn't going to get in the next year move and let the next guy have a honeymoon year while we are on the road and have optimism when we re-open the Dome in year 2.

We need hope and change not more of the same.

 

[HeaterCuse22]

In 2009 our board was happy with a 4-8 record as the uptick in game preparation was obvious. Nobody was calling for DM's end after 2 years. People were ticked off in 2011 after losing the last 5 games and until the halfway point of 2013 anger was around but the last 6 games the board was happy.
SS has shown very little to earn patience. We have been blown out way too much. We aren't improving the young players and our coach is making same in-game mistakes still. Our recruiting is bottom 1/3 in the ACC.

SS did not take the program in 2009 he took over a 25-25 program. Even a 11-17 conference record is better than 6-15. We are going backwards. SS isn't going to get in the next year move and let the next guy have a honeymoon year while we are on the road and have optimism when we re-open the Dome in year 2.

We need hope and change not more of the same.

Its ok. we discussed you wont change and I wont change. You also said you would give a new coach 2.5 years and then be on them also. So patience is the wrong word. Either way Ill support the team and players. I was here since before greg and Im here now.

 

[MadNY3]

no. Shafer should be better than 3-6. but dont act like Marrone's 8-5 built us into a legit contender.

7-6 with a bowl game in SS 1st year was borderline miraculous.

We should be a lot better than beating ONE P5 team - Wake Forrest - over the course of double-digit games.