NBA Draft Tonight

[AlpharettaCuse]

That's a nice stretch. Who said I was rooting against him? I said a ten year + career was possible but rather unlikely. What is so hard about that POV to understand?

Just seems like you're rooting against the kid. 2nd rounders have 10 year careers on a regular basis. No reason to think he won't be able to do that. You're adamant he won't, and are critical of his game. 10 years is a long time, but if he lasts 8, is that not a good career?

 

[longislandcuse]

It's crazy how much of Melo's career will hinge on Porzingis. If KP takes 2-3 years or busts, the Knicks and Melo are probably screwed. If KP can produce this year, then all of a sudden that team could be sneaky good and very attractive for a top FA next summer.

 

[bpo57]

Just seems like you're rooting against the kid. 2nd rounders have 10 year careers on a regular basis. No reason to think he won't be able to do that. You're adamant he won't, and are critical of his game. 10 years is a long time, but if he lasts 8, is that not a good career?

The origin of this debate was my pushing back on the prediction that Rak would have a 10+ year career. Never said an eight year career would be bad. It would be awesome.

You are right that I don't think he will have a ten year plus career. That's just my opinion, don't mean any harm to him or anybody else. My point all along has been that people (yourself included) underestimate how difficult it is to have a 10+ year NBA career. That would seem to have been underscored by the track records of previous SU players in the NBA.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I think one of the lessons this season is that the Miami strategy of stripping your roster down to almost nothing and throwing all your cap room at stars and filling out your roster with, uh, roster filled isn't appealing to the top flight free agents.

That's a good thing. I hated that strategy. Watching team building is a lot more fun.

Watch if the Mavs are a hot free agent destination in the years to come. Solid nucleus there to supplement as the cap increases.

 

[AlpharettaCuse]

The origin of this debate was my pushing back on the prediction that Rak would have a 10+ year career. Never said an eight year career would be bad. It would be awesome.

You are right that I don't think he will have a ten year plus career. That's just my opinion, don't mean any harm to him or anybody else. My point all along has been that people (yourself included) underestimate how difficult it is to have a 10+ year NBA career. That would seem to have been underscored by the track records of previous SU players in the NBA.

You keep pointing to former SU players and their NBA track record, as if that were an indication of future Syracuse players chances of success in the NBA. Jason Hart played 12 years in the NBA. What round was he drafted in? I'm not saying Rak will play 10 years. I won't be surprised if he does.

I'm sure you'll be back here pointing fingers if Rak only plays 9 years, telling us all we were bullish on a 10 year career. Why not root for the kid?

 

[bpo57]

You keep pointing to former SU players and their NBA track record, as if that were an indication of future Syracuse players chances of success in the NBA. Jason Hart played 12 years in the NBA. What round was he drafted in? I'm not saying Rak will play 10 years. I won't be surprised if he does.

I'm sure you'll be back here pointing fingers if Rak only plays 9 years, telling us all we were bullish on a 10 year career. Why not root for the kid?

This is getting tiresome. My point about SU players is that given their dismal track record in the NBA you'd think it might provoke a little caution about bullish career projections. My prediction has nothing to with rooting for or against somebody. You mistakenly think ten year plus careers are commonplace for 2nd round draftees.

 

[longislandcuse]

Any Cuse players playing in Summer League today? It's rainy and gross in Atlanta so not much to do for the 4th today.

 

[AlpharettaCuse]

This is getting tiresome. My point about SU players is that given their dismal track record in the NBA you'd think it might provoke a little caution about bullish career projections. My prediction has nothing to with rooting for or against somebody. You mistakenly think ten year plus careers are commonplace for 2nd round draftees.

"Dismal track record".

There's no way you are rooting for Rak or any other Syracuse player. Keep on hatin'.

Every year there are 2-3 players drafted in the 2nd round that play 10 years or more. That's pretty common, right?

 

[Orangezoo]

its funny when ppl feel inclined to use their contrarian personality and try to play it off as being the voice of reason. No different than those who love to stick their nose in to defend the bashing of calipari. Its like clockwork.

 

[Orangezoo]

Knicks need to try and find a way to use calderon as a piece to move and pick up some value. Then sign shved as well as he has major potential ala a goran dragic. Knicks need more offense and another big man.

 

[bpo57]

"Dismal track record".

There's no way you are rooting for Rak or any other Syracuse player. Keep on hatin'.

Every year there are 2-3 players drafted in the 2nd round that play 10 years or more. That's pretty common, right?

We found agreement. You're right it's about 2-3 at most. From the 2006 draft four guys have played 9 years and from the 2007 draft five guys have played eight years. Several of these guys are deep bench players so holding on for 10+ won't be easy. So we agree the # is 2-3. I've said all along it is certainly possible Rak could play 10+ years but the odds are heavily against him (particularly for a guy that will be 34 at that time). As we both agree the likelihood of playing 10+ years after being drafted in the 2nd round is less than 10% (2.5/30). I'd say the stats completely support my contention and I wouldn't call < 10% commonplace.

As for the dismal SU track record in the pros- not hatin', just keepin' it real.

 

[Orangezoo]

We found agreement. You're right it's about 2-3 at most. From the 2006 draft four guys have played 9 years and from the 2007 draft five guys have played eight years. Several of these guys are deep bench players so holding on for 10+ won't be easy. So we agree the # is 2-3. I've said all along it is certainly possible Rak could play 10+ years but the odds are heavily against him (particularly for a guy that will be 34 at that time). As we both agree the likelihood of playing 10+ years after being drafted in the 2nd round is less than 10% (2.5/30). I'd say the stats completely support my contention and I wouldn't call < 10% commonplace.

As for the dismal SU track record in the pros- not hatin', just keepin' it real.

So as it pertains to "keeping it real" beyond your fascination with trying to correct a technicality and a year or two is absolutely that- what was the point? I find it hard to believe a couple of years and an infinitesimal mathematical correction would drive someone... Not to speak for AC in any way but it sure comes off a lot more than just that. Be it you are falling back on that statistic or not...

 

[bpo57]

So as it pertains to "keeping it real" beyond your fascination with trying to correct a technicality and a year or two is absolutely that- what was the point? I find it hard to believe a couple of years and an infinitesimal mathematical correction would drive someone... Not to speak for AC in any way but it sure comes off a lot more than just that. Be it you are falling back on that statistic or not...

If you have followed the thread from the beginning then you'd know that I pushed back on the notion that a 10 year + career in the NBA is likely for Rak or any other second rounder. It's not and that's a statistical fact as I've outlined for alpha. My comment about SU players was that I thought people should be more circumspect about making bold predictions about SU players in the NBA. There have been many made here and most have been spectacularly wrong. If that qualifies me as a hater, so be it.

 

[Orangezoo]

If you have followed the thread from the beginning then you'd know that I pushed back on the notion that a 10 year + career in the NBA is likely for Rak or any other second rounder. It's not and that's a statistical fact as I've outlined for alpha. My comment about SU players was that I thought people should be more circumspect about making bold predictions about SU players in the NBA. There have been many made here and most have been spectacularly wrong. If that qualifies me as a hater, so be it.

I think its a fair assessment to say that Rak is a first round talent who fell into the draymond green category of being a 4 year guy who blossomed slowly. Looking at things qualitatively vs just the numbers is a good way to go here. He is clearly first round talent based upon his sr year and his workout feedback. You need to look at 4 year guys data as well as sr all americans and model their performance out. The 2nd round is often a pool of euro stashes and early entries who shouldnt have left. Add in a small pool of upperclassmen and you can see how easily 2nd round stats are skewed and the model fairly useless.

As for SU having a dismal track record i disagree. We have had some disappointments no doubt. But add mcw grant ennis rak as incompletes and lets see where things go. Jonny wouldnt be a bust if he didnt get hurt and wes and dion were drafted too high. Again dismal is a strong word... And i would strongly disagree. Hart and etan were role players for a long time. Arinze has been in and out. Fab Melo was a flop. Dion isnt done yet plus the other youngsters i mentioned. Just keeping it real as well.

 

[AlpharettaCuse]

So it happens 2-3 times per year, but it's not commonplace? Huh.

Again what does SU's dismal track record in the pros have to do with Rak? What other schools are putting more players in the NBA? Look around. Even the best schools have kids that's don't make it in the NBA.

And who made any bullish predictions?

 

[bpo57]

I think its a fair assessment to say that Rak is a first round talent who fell into the draymond green category of being a 4 year guy who blossomed slowly. Looking at things qualitatively vs just the numbers is a good way to go here. He is clearly first round talent based upon his sr year and his workout feedback. You need to look at 4 year guys data as well as sr all americans and model their performance out. The 2nd round is often a pool of euro stashes and early entries who shouldnt have left. Add in a small pool of upperclassmen and you can see how easily 2nd round stats are skewed and the model fairly useless.

As for SU having a dismal track record i disagree. We have had some disappointments no doubt. But add mcw grant ennis rak as incompletes and lets see where things go. Jonny wouldnt be a bust if he didnt get hurt and wes and dion were drafted too high. Again dismal is a strong word... And i would strongly disagree. Hart and etan were role players for a long time. Arinze has been in and out. Fab Melo was a flop. Dion isnt done yet plus the other youngsters i mentioned. Just keeping it real as well.

Fair enough. I agree with you about the euro draftees mucking the stats up. Good point.

I think 4 year guys have it even harder to achieve a 10 year career for the obvious reason of age. There aren't a lot of 34 yo guys in the NBA. SU has been a perennial top 15 (or better) program for a long time. It just feels to me like the NBA performance of SU players has lagged that level for a long time. There haven't been many that have outperformed their draft level. Could prolly name them on one hand.

I'm not as high on Rak as you or some others on this board. That's just my opinion. Nothing to do with "hatin' ".

 

[bpo57]

So it happens 2-3 times per year, but it's not commonplace? Huh.

Again what does SU's dismal track record in the pros have to do with Rak? What other schools are putting more players in the NBA? Look around. Even the best schools have kids that's don't make it in the NBA.

And who made any bullish predictions?

If you go back and read the thread from my first initial post on the topic you will find the answer to every one of your questions. Not confident that will satisfy you though as several have been repeated over and over.

 

[Orangezoo]

Fair enough. I agree with you about the euro draftees mucking the stats up. Good point.

I think 4 year guys have it even harder to achieve a 10 year career for the obvious reason of age. There aren't a lot of 34 yo guys in the NBA. SU has been a perennial top 15 (or better) program for a long time. It just feels to me like the NBA performance of SU players has lagged that level for a long time. There haven't been many that have outperformed their draft level. Could prolly name them on one hand.

I'm not as high on Rak as you or some others on this board. That's just my opinion. Nothing to do with "hatin' ".

SU shares common ground with louisville in being a major cbb power that does not typically roll in top 15 recruits in bunches each year. You have to look at it a bit different in that we have had kids go pro that were nowhere near nba radars before SU. Their success at the next level is not all that relevant imho when you factor where they started. As for top recruits we just havent had that many. Even guys like dion jerami grant etc were fringe burger guys. Mcw melo rak mccullough fab greene and flynn are the blue chippers and their success isnt breaking the norm vs other schools. Right now UK is bringing in surefire lotto picks and they are doing as expected. It alters perception seeing so many of them but that again happens with them coming on campus vs turning into nba players on campus. The future for our most recent classes is bright minus maybe dion. The chances of success for rak joining a team set for several years of success has to be weighed in. Look at wes matthews.. Draymond green.. Marc gasol.. Just a few examples of 2nd rounders joining established teams and doing well. The spurs seem to always have a few as well.

 

[Orangezoo]

Honestly i think acc play is going to help us with future nba success as well. The faster style of play is much more like the next lvl coupled with the reduced shot clock.

 

[bpo57]

SU shares common ground with louisville in being a major cbb power that does not typically roll in top 15 recruits in bunches each year. You have to look at it a bit different in that we have had kids go pro that were nowhere near nba radars before SU. Their success at the next level is not all that relevant imho when you factor where they started. As for top recruits we just havent had that many. Even guys like dion jerami grant etc were fringe burger guys. Mcw melo rak mccullough fab greene and flynn are the blue chippers and their success isnt breaking the norm vs other schools. Right now UK is bringing in surefire lotto picks and they are doing as expected. It alters perception seeing so many of them but that again happens with them coming on campus vs turning into nba players on campus. The future for our most recent classes is bright minus maybe dion. The chances of success for rak joining a team set for several years of success has to be weighed in. Look at wes matthews.. Draymond green.. Marc gasol.. Just a few examples of 2nd rounders joining established teams and doing well. The spurs seem to always have a few as well.

Excellent points and I agree with most of what you say. My point is that where those guys came from didn't stop many from predicting long NBA careers. also, I think we'd agree that over the long term (30-35 years) there hasn't been a lot of NBA success for SU players. More recently Dion, Greene, Fab, Joseph, Flynn, DNic have been disappointing draft picks for one reason or another. MCW solid, too early on CJ as I think he has a chance to stick with somebody. To be clear, none of this is a criticism of JB.

 

[Madbiker]

Real iffy on Williams, thinking we could've spent the money better somewhere else but it is what it is.

As it stands Williams and Porzingis are the PF's. Melo plays SF but with those 2 guys he can guard the other teams 3 or 4 depending on matchups and still set up wherever he wants on offense as Porzingis spaces the floor and Williams can spot up and cut.

Calderon
Afflalo
Melo
Williams
Lopez

Grant
Galloway
Porzingis

We still need a legit backup SF and C.

I think you will see Porzingis as the starting 4. Williams will play a decent amount also but with Porzingis getting more minutes. Maybe 28/20 split. By mid season I expect Grant to be getting more minutes than Calderon... if not starting. Agree that NYK need to sign a backup SF who can score. Right now there is only Early (guaranteed $845k) who showed nothing last year.

 

[Orangezoo]

Excellent points and I agree with most of what you say. My point is that where those guys came from didn't stop many from predicting long NBA careers. also, I think we'd agree that over the long term (30-35 years) there hasn't been a lot of NBA success for SU players. More recently Dion, Greene, Fab, Joseph, Flynn, DNic have been disappointing draft picks for one reason or another. MCW solid, too early on CJ as I think he has a chance to stick with somebody. To be clear, none of this is a criticism of JB.

Being a frequently televised program has been a double edged sword iin many ways for SU. Guys like dnic and joseph are unfairly overrated for long term potential by more than SU fans. With that said nba success has come and gone in waves for SU. The 80s were kind. Being 31 i look back at seikaly, sherm , dc , owens, addison, etc and you have some serious long term success if not as long term as hoped but still. The 90s were tough beyond hart , etan as we saw good cuse players who just were only good collegiate/overseas types including moten. I know im missing several from the 80s but that era had some serious pro cred. Melo and hak were good stopgaps. Roberts and watkins dissappointed as then did greene. Flynn was the new era and started off gangbusters before injury. I think we are in a good era again thats building its legacy and naturally that comes with duds. Mccullough i think has a shot to do well given that mid range game and with some strength to help him downlow.

 

[Orangezoo]

I think you will see Porzingis as the starting 4. Williams will play a decent amount also but with Porzingis getting more minutes. Maybe 28/20 split. By mid season I expect Grant to be getting more minutes than Calderon... if not starting. Agree that NYK need to sign a backup SF who can score. Right now there is only Early (guaranteed $845k) who showed nothing last year.

If we could move calderon and add in early to get some productive pieces..the game is just too fast for early right now. Dont undershoot galloway either as he has game. Amundson would be a nice piece to resign as a 2nd unit rebounder and screener.

 

[Orangezoo]

I think you will see Porzingis as the starting 4. Williams will play a decent amount also but with Porzingis getting more minutes. Maybe 28/20 split. By mid season I expect Grant to be getting more minutes than Calderon... if not starting. Agree that NYK need to sign a backup SF who can score. Right now there is only Early (guaranteed $845k) who showed nothing last year.

Something else to think about with these moves. For the triangle you need several pieces. The key piece was first a space eater/screener and solid offensive rebounder which they got in rolo. Its not jordan but still solidly fills that need. Next you need spacing and a key component is meshing where players like to attack and shoot from. Afflalo has always liked the baseline both attacking and shooting. Porz. I foresee as a highpost guy who can step out and interchange with melo when on the court together. Calderon and grant both like to use screens from the top of the key and are effective shooters from that area with grant a good penetrator from the top. Williams makes sense in that if he can learn from melo regarding using his body under the hoop and posting up along with the fact he likes to attack from the opposite side that afflalo does. The elite scorer of course is the highlight of the triangle and as melo ages his perimeter efficiency is important to reduce wear and tear. Taking away individual skills and looking at where these newcomers like to be on the court it fits the scheme and spacing on paper. Galloway as an attack and defense minded guy adds a nice bench piece. Shved is a guy we need to resign i think because it could make calderon an even better trade piece. Remember the mavs now really need a pg... We have a history dealing with them.

 

[ssbriefcase]

Excellent points and I agree with most of what you say. My point is that where those guys came from didn't stop many from predicting long NBA careers. also, I think we'd agree that over the long term (30-35 years) there hasn't been a lot of NBA success for SU players. More recently Dion, Greene, Fab, Joseph, Flynn, DNic have been disappointing draft picks for one reason or another. MCW solid, too early on CJ as I think he has a chance to stick with somebody. To be clear, none of this is a criticism of JB.

Now I just did a quick internet search and found a few articles judging all schools and numbers of players in the league and success in the league (all star, etc. w a point system). One list was for 25 years and stopped in 2012. SU was 10th. If you added in the last 3 years SU would clearly be in the top 10. Another was just this century, and we were 8th. So I guess compared to KU, Duke, Kansas and a few others we wouldn't look that good, but we didn't have 30 Mcd's either. But other than the very few top producers, we are doing damn good as far as the NBA is concerned.