NC State: most important game this year

[CousCuse]

The Orange will have to beat NC State and the refs in this game.

 

[Eric15]

wrong

I mean, obviously there are still games left to play and anything can happen. But if I had to quantify it, I would say our chances of making the tourney are about 55-60% with a win against NC State, but they plummet to about 20-25% with a loss.

 

[shandeezy7]

Beating Clemson and Miami would be really big. In my unexpert opinion, it appears that the committee really valued who you beat more than bad losses in the top 16 seedings yesterday.

Would have been nice if that's what they valued last year...

 

[Fat tire 13]

It's also important because if I am going to make my wife watch sports on Valentine's Day, we better win!

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Would have been nice if that's what they valued last year...

problem is our good wins turned out to be not that good. polish came off FSU and VA, and all 3 of them (Duke) were at home.

 

[NorSyr66]

Alright, this Moyer parent stuff has gotten boring. Looking ahead, you simply can't overstate the importance of this NC State game. In my opinion, it's our most important game of the year bar none.

We are extremely close right now in terms of seeding and computer numbers. At this moment, they're probably just in, and we're probably just on the outside. We're both sitting at 6-6 in conference. And they have way better elite wins than we do having beaten Duke and UNC. We have to be able to separate ourselves from them in the eyes of the selection committee. Losing at home would be a killer.

Our last five games are a gauntlet with @ Miami, @ Duke, @ BC, UNC, Clemson. 2-3 is probably a reasonable ceiling here.

There's no way to sugarcoat it, if we want to play in the NCAA tournament, we can't lose to NC State on Wednesday.

I agree but also have to grin since I think every game we played in the last month has been labeled "must win" or "biggest game" of the year. Pretty much the way this season and actually last couple of seasons have unwound. Definitely a tough part of the schedule at the end of the season but everyone has to play the other teams over the course of the season. I sure hope we can keep playing the best basketball we can one game at a time. Can not look ahead. The short bench I think will be our biggest enemy as we play out the string of final games against faster, bigger, and more bench player teams at a pace of playing every 3 or 4 days. Lets Go Orange.

 

[CousCuse]

Bayer will get a lot of looks and is key to this game. 3 for 3 from 3 is Euclidean majick.

 

[MSOrange]

Bayer will get a lot of looks and is key to this game. 3 for 3 from 3 is Euclidean majick.

I'd like to see him make a shot or two to get his confidence and so they know they have to defend him. But not sure I would characterize him as the key to this game.

 

[CousCuse]

I'd like to see him make a shot or two to get his confidence and so they know they have to defend him. But not sure I would characterize him as the key to this game.

I think he could maybe, possibly, potentially could emerge as a 3 point threat. If he was in with Tyus, Frank and OB, they would really have some open lanes.

 

[br801]

Bayer will get a lot of looks and is key to this game. 3 for 3 from 3 is Euclidean majick.

It won't bode well if he's out there long enough to launch three threes on Saturday.

 

[CousCuse]

It won't bode well if he's out there long enough to launch three threes on Saturday.

Maybe he can be Matt Roe-ish. Gerry has to drop some knowledge on him. Now is your time double B, make it happen.

 

[Arangeman]

Maybe he can be Matt Roe-ish.

Roe shot 41% and 47% from 3 his main playing years here. And averaged 18 ppg his senior year at Maryland.

 

[br801]

Maybe he can be Matt Roe-ish. Gerry has to drop some knowledge on him. Now is your time double B, make it happen.

Matt was a really good D1 shooter.

 

[CousCuse]

Roe shot 41% and 47% from 3 his main playing years here. And averaged 18 ppg his senior year at Maryland.

Matt was a really good D1 shooter.

That's why I said ish. But more like the instant offense role player guy.

 

[sugrad68]

The game against NC State is the last that we are favored to win. If we beat them at home it is not that attractive a victory to the committee, but a loss would be ugly. But any victory in the last 5 games would be a major plus to the committee. None of the 5 teams are especially great on defense which certainly helps SU. Some are downright terrible.

Not meaning to pass over the NC State game, but I fear that either Vasiljevic or Waardenburg is going to light it up against us on Saturday. Hopefully that little guy Lykes is kept under control. That kid is quick!!

 

[Cusefan0307]

The game against NC State is the last that we are favored to win. If we beat them at home it is not that attractive a victory to the committee, but a loss would be ugly. But any victory in the last 5 games would be a major plus to the committee. None of the 5 teams are especially great on defense which certainly helps SU. Some are downright terrible.

Not meaning to pass over the NC State game, but I fear that either Vasiljevic or Waardenburg is going to light it up against us on Saturday. Hopefully that little guy Lykes is kept under control. That kid is quick!!

If you’re going by KenPom you may be right, but spreads aren’t always 100 decided by KenPom. Would not be surprised to see us favored against Clemson/UNC at home or BC on the road depending how things wake out.

 

[sugrad68]

If you’re going by KenPom you may be right, but spreads aren’t always 100 decided by KenPom. Would not be surprised to see us favored against Clemson/UNC at home or BC on the road depending how things wake out.

I am using ESPN's Basketball Power Index predictions. According to them we have a 69.5% chance of winning tonight's game. 21.7% vs. Miami. 35.8% vs. NC. 7.8% vs. Duke. 45.3% vs. BC. 45% vs. Clemson.