NCAA chances

[Consigliere]

son

if the committee doesn't go by conf record (which they're not supposed to) Clemson has a considerably better non-con than us, including a win at S.Carolina and overall record could be quite similar to ours

Certainly debatable, (since we're debating it!) but 0 Top 25 RPI wins - FSU would be their first - and their best non-conference win came against a South Carolina team playing without their all-SEC caliber player. FWIW IF we only win one more and IF Clemson were to win out and win a couple in the ACCT I think we would both be in.

 

[Briancuse]

"don't dererve" ≠ miracle

15 losses, losses against Bc,St Johns,Uconn, ending the season losing 6 out of 7, I just don't see how we would get in.

 

[Fat tire 13]

I

Yes I read them all, if we lose the next three games we would be 17-15 losing 6 of our last 7 games, with some bad losses, I just don't see how we would get in, honestly if we can't beat Gt at home, and beat someone we should be able to beat in the acct, we don't deserve a bid.

I read them all too. I won't lie, I will be a little bit nervous unless we win the ACCT. Not because I don't get the math, but because I am a paranoid bastard. There was no worse feeling than seeing us miss with that GMAC team. There is always an element of the unknown, even if it is minuscule.

 

[Consigliere]

1) If Wake beats Louisville on it's home court and manages to win one extra ACC tourney game than us, are you that sure we are ahead of them?

2) What if Wake wins at Virginia Tech and win one extra tourney game than Syracuse. Is that unreasonable? That's 2 road/neutral wins against our win at home against Georgia Tech.

3) What if Clemson wins it last 3 games (30% chance per Sagarin), and wins one more tourney game than us. You sure that we are ahead of them because of that one win vs Georgia Tech?

4) What if Vanderbilt wins its next 3 games, including a win at Arkansas. They then win an SEC game against a team that was close to or already in. Are you sure that are one win at Georgia Tech is going to lock us in?

5) What if Wichita St loses the MVC tourney? One spot is stolen.

6) What if TCU, Providence wins 2 more games to our 1 home win? Are you sure they are still behind us

There are too many teams with potential to catch us to think it's anywhere close to 95%. And a team just has to be close to us to bring in "committee judgment" which may not go our way.

That's the point. With this weak of a bubble there aren't that many. By the ESPN analysis there are 20 teams fighting for 12 spots. I'll give you everyone of the scenarios you list and you still need to come up with 7 or 8 more. Short of a historic run of bid stealers from multiple bid conferences (e.g. Rutgers wins the B1G tournament) I can't find the 7 0r 8 if we win one more game. And that historic run is why I left it at 95% instead of higher.

 

[orangenirvana]

For those that say Dick Vitale had us in. Dick always nominates to0 many teams as being in. He then cries sometimes about it.

He also thinks a win over his Dukies is an automatic bid.

 

[pearl31]

I

I read them all too. I won't lie, I will be a little bit nervous unless we win the ACCT. Not because I don't get the math, but because I am a paranoid bastard. There was no worse feeling than seeing us miss with that GMAC team. There is always an element of the unknown, even if it is minuscule.

none of the gmac teams missed the tourney - I'm guessing you're referring to 06-07, the year after he graduated

 

[jncuse]

That's the point. With this weak of a bubble there aren't that many. By the ESPN analysis there are 20 teams fighting for 12 spots. I'll give you everyone of the scenarios you list and you still need to come up with 7 or 8 more. Short of a historic run of bid stealers from multiple bid conferences (e.g. Rutgers wins the B1G tournament) I can't find the 7 0r 8 if we win one more game. And that historic run is why I left it at 95% instead of higher.

So of the 20 teams finding 12 spots, are you claiming that we are above that group? There are 12 spots available for the group ranked below us? Not trying to be rude but I think you are reading some terrible sources of information or interpreting them poorly. There is absolutely no way that there would need to be another 7 or 8 bad scenarios after those I presented.

Needless to say I spend quite a bit of time monitoring where we currently stand and how weak the bubble is (which it absolutely is) and I give you my 100% assurance that if everything above happened we would be screwed. I am not sure if you think we currently stand in a group ahead of the weak bubble group... we are in fact right in the middle of the weak bubble group. On the inside part of it, but in the heart of it nonetheless.

Current Bracket Matrix

Cal 33
Syracuse 33
Providence 29
Illinois St 25
Kansas St 24

--- In/Out Line ---
TCU 15
Vanderbilt 15
Wake Forest 12
Georgia Tech 6
Rhode Island 4
Clemson 3
Houston 3
Illinois 3

We only need 4 of the teams below us to make a real solid move to be out of the tournament by "consensus" anyway. That solid move can be 2 wins for them including one top 50 win, vs our one win at home vs Georgia Tech. And again, I will reiterate the matrix is not always going to be 100% correct. But it is as good as an indicator out there that we have.

 

[Budley]

I agree that lose all 3 we don't go, don't deserve to go. That would probably mean 2 more bad losses, one at home. And ending the year in a death spiral, only to be saved by a single shot.

 

[Consigliere]

So of the 20 teams finding 12 spots, are you claiming that we are above that group? There are 12 spots available for the group ranked below us? Not trying to be rude but I think you are reading some terrible sources of information or interpreting them poorly. There is absolutely no way that there would need to be another 7 or 8 bad scenarios after those I presented.

Needless to say I spend quite a bit of time monitoring where we currently stand and how weak the bubble is (which it absolutely is) and I give you my 100% assurance that if everything above happened we would be screwed. I am not sure if you think we currently stand in a group ahead of the weak bubble group... we are in fact right in the middle of the weak bubble group. On the inside part of it, but in the heart of it nonetheless.

Current Bracket Matrix

Cal 33
Syracuse 33
Providence 29
Illinois St 25
Kansas St 24

--- In/Out Line ---
TCU 15
Vanderbilt 15
Wake Forest 12
Georgia Tech 6
Rhode Island 4
Clemson 3
Houston 3
Illinois 3

We only need 4 of the teams below us to make a real solid move to be out of the tournament by "consensus" anyway. That solid move can be 2 wins for them including one top 50 win, vs our one win at home vs Georgia Tech. And again, I will reiterate the matrix is not always going to be 100% correct. But it is as good as an indicator out there that we have.

You're not being rude and maybe I am misinterpreting something but for what it's worth:

22 Leagues look to be 1 bid leagues:
American East
Atlantic Sun
Big Sky
Big South
Big West
WAC
Colonial
CUSA
Horizon
Ivy
MAAC
MAC
MEAC
Northeast
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Southern
Southland
SWAC
Summit
Sun Belt
Mountain West

10 leagues below will fill the remaining 46 slots. I'll list locks and near locks then the number of at large bids each have fairly well solidified:

American - SMU and Cincy - 1 at large
A-10 - VCU and Dayton - 1
ACC - UNC, Louisville, Duke, FSU, Notre Dame, Miami, Va. Tech - 7
Big 12 - Kansas, Baylor, WVU, Oklahoma St, Iowa State - 4
B1G - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern - 4
Big East - Butler, Xavier, Villanova, Creighton - 3
Pac-12 - Oregon, Arizona, UCLA - 2
SEC - Florida, Kentucky, S Carolina - 2
West Coast - Gonzaga, St. Mary's - 1
Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Illinois State (?) - 1

Added Illinois State from my first pass so that is a total of 10 automatic and 24 at large brings us to 57 and leaves 11 slots.

19 teams the referenced analysis list as "Work to Do" fighting for those 11:

Houston
Rhode Island
Wake Forest
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
TCU
Kansas State
Seton Hall
Providence
Marquette
Michigan
Michigan State
USC
California
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

So are there scenarios where 11 of the other 18 teams end up with a more favorable resume than Syracuse? Not many, especially considering there are more than a couple of games left matching teams in the group of 19 and someone will have to lose! Is there a greater than 5% possibility that some combination of those scenarios and bid stealers come to pass? Maybe, but IMHO not appreciably more. Beat Georgia Tech and we are in.

What am I missing?

 

[pearl31]

You're not being rude and maybe I am misinterpreting something but for what it's worth:

22 Leagues look to be 1 bid leagues:
American East
Atlantic Sun
Big Sky
Big South
Big West
WAC
Colonial
CUSA
Horizon
Ivy
MAAC
MAC
MEAC
Northeast
Ohio Valley
Patriot
Southern
Southland
SWAC
Summit
Sun Belt
Mountain West

10 leagues below will fill the remaining 46 slots. I'll list locks and near locks then the number of at large bids each have fairly well solidified:

American - SMU and Cincy - 1 at large
A-10 - VCU and Dayton - 1
ACC - UNC, Louisville, Duke, FSU, Notre Dame, Miami, Va. Tech - 7
Big 12 - Kansas, Baylor, WVU, Oklahoma St, Iowa State - 4
B1G - Wisconsin, Minnesota, Purdue, Maryland, Northwestern - 4
Big East - Butler, Xavier, Villanova, Creighton - 3
Pac-12 - Oregon, Arizona, UCLA - 2
SEC - Florida, Kentucky, S Carolina - 2
West Coast - Gonzaga, St. Mary's - 1
Missouri Valley - Wichita State, Illinois State (?) - 1

Added Illinois State from my first pass so that is a total of 10 automatic and 24 at large brings us to 57 and leaves 11 slots.

19 teams the referenced analysis list as "Work to Do" fighting for those 11:

Houston
Rhode Island
Wake Forest
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
TCU
Kansas State
Seton Hall
Providence
Marquette
Michigan
Michigan State
USC
California
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

So are there scenarios where 11 of the other 18 teams end up with a more favorable resume than Syracuse? Not many, especially considering there are more than a couple of games left matching teams in the group of 19 and someone will have to lose! Is there a greater than 5% possibility that some combination of those scenarios and bid stealers come to pass? Maybe, but IMHO no appreciably more. Beat Georgia Tech and we are in.

What am I missing?

wow that's a jncuse-level post in its breadth!

 

[jncuse]

19 teams the referenced analysis list as "Work to Do" fighting for those 11:

Houston
Rhode Island
Wake Forest
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
TCU
Kansas State
Seton Hall
Providence
Marquette
Michigan
Michigan State
USC
California
Arkansas
Vanderbilt
Tennessee

So are there scenarios where 11 of the other 18 teams end up with a more favorable resume than Syracuse? Not many, especially considering there are more than a couple of games left matching teams in the group of 19 and someone will have to lose! Is there a greater than 5% possibility that some combination of those scenarios and bid stealers come to pass? Maybe, but IMHO no appreciably more. Beat Georgia Tech and we are in.

What am I missing?

Thanks for laying it out. Here is where I think the problem is.

1. Most of those teams have 4 games left minimum and we only have 3 games minimum. It's not that unfathomable for many of those teams to win 2 games out of 4. So for those that are close to us, our 1 win against Georgia Tech at home isn't going to pull away from the,,. Now some are so far behind that 2 wins would not be enough.

2. If you go by the matrix the following schools are already above us (it's debatable, but let's assume the matrix has the s-curve right). It will never turn out exactly that way, but if you are assessing probabilities you make some reasonabel assumptions.

So the following are above Syracuse on the matrix, and are all likely to win at least 1 game as well
Arkansas
USC
Michigan St
Marquette
Seton Hall

So let's assume those 5 win at least one game. So they stay ahead of us.

3. That leaves 6 spots for the rest. Here are teams that might be close to us with 2 wins out of the next 4. Not that unreasonable for any of those teams to win 2 more games.

Wake Forest
TCU
California
Vanderbilt
Kansas St

(Cal and Vandy probably need 3, but it's a little easier in the P12 and SEC)

4. 1 spot is left. I am still concerned about Illinois St winning the MVC or being an at-large. Or maybe Middle Tennessee St being an at-large after losing the CUSA tourney. What about the A-10 or AAC having a different winner. So let's take away that final open spot due to a bubble buster.

5. Now there is 0 spots left and we are still not in. Maybe of one of those other teams which are further behind, wins 4 more games this season including the conference tourney... or 3 games (including one or two real quality wins). They may jump us as well, if we only beat Georgia tech at Home.

Houston
Rhode Island
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Illinois (Added)
Georgetown (Added)
Ole Miss (Added)
Indiana (Added)

Odds are that one of the above group will do something crazy... probably not 2. So that would put as the 2nd team out.

I don't think any of my assumptions in 2-5 are really unreasonable. That is why I put it much closer to 50%.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Always get a chuckle when he talks about his VBDI.

 

[pearl31]

Thanks for laying it out. Here is where I think the problem is.

1. Most of those teams have 4 games left minimum and we only have 3 games minimum. It's not that unfathomable for many of those teams to win 2 games out of 4. So for those that are close to us, our 1 win against Georgia Tech at home isn't going to pull away from the,,. Now some are so far behind that 2 wins would not be enough.

2. If you go by the matrix the following schools are already above us (it's debatable, but let's assume the matrix has the s-curve right). It will never turn out exactly that way, but if you are assessing probabilities you make some reasonabel assumptions.

So the following are above Syracuse on the matrix, and are all likely to win at least 1 game as well
Arkansas
USC
Michigan St
Marquette
Seton Hall

So let's assume those 5 win at least one game. So they stay ahead of us.

3. That leaves 6 spots for the rest. Here are teams that might be close to us with 2 wins out of the next 4. Not that unreasonable for any of those teams to win 2 more games.

Wake Forest
TCU
California
Vanderbilt
Kansas St

(Cal and Vandy probably need 3, but it's a little easier in the P12 and SEC)

4. 1 spot is left. I am still concerned about Illinois St winning the MVC or being an at-large. Or maybe Middle Tennessee St being an at-large after losing the CUSA tourney. What about the A-10 or AAC having a different winner. So let's take away that final open spot due to a bubble buster.

5. Now there is 0 spots left and we are still not in. Maybe of one of those other teams which are further behind, wins 4 more games this season including the conference tourney... or 3 games (including one or two real quality wins). They may jump us as well, if we only beat Georgia tech at Home.

Houston
Rhode Island
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Illinois (Added)
Georgetown (Added)
Ole Miss (Added)
Indiana (Added)

Odds are that one of the above group will do something crazy... probably not 2. So that would put as the 2nd team out.

I don't think any of my assumptions in 2-5 are really unreasonable. That is why I put it much closer to 50%.

posts like this are why I refer to you as the bubble maestro

 

[Consigliere]

Thanks for laying it out. Here is where I think the problem is.

1. Most of those teams have 4 games left minimum and we only have 3 games minimum. It's not that unfathomable for many of those teams to win 2 games out of 4. So for those that are close to us, our 1 win against Georgia Tech at home isn't going to pull away from the,,. Now some are so far behind that 2 wins would not be enough.

2. If you go by the matrix the following schools are already above us (it's debatable, but let's assume the matrix has the s-curve right). It will never turn out exactly that way, but if you are assessing probabilities you make some reasonabel assumptions.

So the following are above Syracuse on the matrix, and are all likely to win at least 1 game as well
Arkansas
USC
Michigan St
Marquette
Seton Hall

So let's assume those 5 win at least one game. So they stay ahead of us.

3. That leaves 6 spots for the rest. Here are teams that might be close to us with 2 wins out of the next 4. Not that unreasonable for any of those teams to win 2 more games.

Wake Forest
TCU
California
Vanderbilt
Kansas St

(Cal and Vandy probably need 3, but it's a little easier in the P12 and SEC)

4. 1 spot is left. I am still concerned about Illinois St winning the MVC or being an at-large. Or maybe Middle Tennessee St being an at-large after losing the CUSA tourney. What about the A-10 or AAC having a different winner. So let's take away that final open spot due to a bubble buster.

5. Now there is 0 spots left and we are still not in. Maybe of one of those other teams which are further behind, wins 4 more games this season including the conference tourney... or 3 games (including one or two real quality wins). They may jump us as well, if we only beat Georgia tech at Home.

Houston
Rhode Island
Clemson
Georgia Tech
Pittsburgh
Tennessee
Illinois (Added)
Georgetown (Added)
Ole Miss (Added)
Indiana (Added)

Odds are that one of the above group will do something crazy... probably not 2. So that would put as the 2nd team out.

I don't think any of my assumptions in 2-5 are really unreasonable. That is why I put it much closer to 50%.

Ok. Sold. But nice to know that at about 4 tomorrow after our big win at the Yum it all becomes moot!

 

[bballbeadle]

95%. Beat Georgia Tech and we are clearly no worse than 9th in the ACC. While the conference affiliation doesn't stand on it's own it means we are firmly ahead of at least four other bubble teams (Pitt, Wake Forest, Clemson and Ga. Tech. ) 5% is to account for bracket busters winning conferences and bumping "locks" to at large slots.

We will beat Georgia Tech. The Dome crowd will will it.

 

[Eric15]

That's fine. I just wonder who has a better case and what the rationale is.

Please direct all questions to jncuse.