NCAA chances

[djorange1989]

agreed on principle but those historical "never" references don't hold water IMO - this is only about the 4the year or so since the field expanded to 68, every year is different, there's nothing definitive about minimum RPI required or if that metric even factors in anymore, and the bubble is historically, er, lacking this year...
certainly it would be dicey at best if we finish 0-3 but "chance in hell" is overstating it

I edited my post above. 11 teams have gotten at large bids with 14 losses vs none with 15. your point about the expansion to 68 is a great one, however, so that indeed should erase my no chance in hell comment. I say we beat hot head Pitino this weekend and end the worry.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

If we are 17-15 (9-9), I would give us a 5-10% chance of making the tournament, at absolute best.

That's fine. I just wonder who has a better case and what the rationale is.

 

[orangenirvana]

If we are 17-15 (9-9), I would give us a 5-10% chance of making the tournament, at absolute best.

I don't think the committee even looks at a team's record. It's all about (1) wins/record against the Top 50, (2) big wins (who you beat), and (3) Sagarin/KenPom/BPI/RPI rankings.

If the last two seasons are any indication.

 

[jncuse]

I never guarantee yes or no, but I will say if we finish 0-3, that our chance of getting an at-large is much less than 5% in my view.

There are too many teams that by virtue of winning 2 games the rest of the way that could pass us. Sure they all won't but we are arguably the 4th last team in right now.

 

[Ryand877]

I never guarantee yes or no, but I will say if we finish 0-3, that our chance of getting an at-large is much less than 5% in my view.

There are too many teams that by virtue of winning 2 games the rest of the way that could pass us. Sure they all won't but we are arguably the 4th last team in right now.

What do you think our chances are if we beat G-Tech but win no more?

 

[Consigliere]

I don't think the committee is counting # of teams per conference.

For example if it's Syracuse vs Illinois for the final spot, they are not saying the ACC has "x" the Big Ten has "x", we better pick team from that conference.

Technically true but we are competing with several other ACC teams for "bubble" spots. Somebody has to go.

Good breakdown here:

College Basketball Bubble Watch - Bubble Watch: Under .500 in league play? No problem! - NCAA Men's Basketball - ESPN

32 conference champions. 24 teams listed as "Should be in" (I subtracted two where no "Locks" were listed as I'm assuming one of these will win the auto bid. Five of the 20 major and mid major teams listed as "Work to do" are ACC. As it stands these 20 are fighting for 12 bids. Would be tough for the ACC not to grab at least a couple of those.

 

[Consigliere]

What do you think our chances are if we beat G-Tech but win no more?

95%. Beat Georgia Tech and we are clearly no worse than 9th in the ACC. While the conference affiliation doesn't stand on it's own it means we are firmly ahead of at least four other bubble teams (Pitt, Wake Forest, Clemson and Ga. Tech. ) 5% is to account for bracket busters winning conferences and bumping "locks" to at large slots.

 

[Victory Lap]

I just can't see 0 wins being enough... I view it as about 5%. But you raise a very interesting and valid point -- why would we go from basically no chance to high certainty based on just one win. I think one win makes a big difference, but does it make the difference between clear in and clear out? Probably not unless it's Louisville. I think it might be 60/40 with one more win, but still not clearly in.

1 win can make a big difference. Hell, 1 shot can make all the difference (thanks Gillon!)

 

[jncuse]

95%. Beat Georgia Tech and we are clearly no worse than 9th in the ACC. While the conference affiliation doesn't stand on it's own it means we are firmly ahead of at least four other bubble teams (Pitt, Wake Forest, Clemson and Ga. Tech. ) 5% is to account for bracket busters winning conferences and bumping "locks" to at large slots.

Much less than 95%. Above 50%.

At 10-8 for example we are not firmly ahead of a 7-11 Clemson team (if they get to 7-11). It's an open debate at that point, that I think we should win but it's not clear cut. It's hard for some people to envision but there are 13 other games out there that matter.

And the # of teams in a conference really does not matter. It is important that we are ahead of all the other teams, but all those teams are currently on the outside. So why would they be afraid to put a fifth on the outside with a sketchy resume.

Why are they obligated to put 9 teams in the ACC? For those that say "they must put nine" i have a counter. "They must put 10".

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Pencil us in for at least one more win because there is no way in HELL we lose to Tech. That game was an abomination.

 

[CorduroyG]

Much less than 95%. Above 50%.

At 10-8 for example we are not firmly ahead of a 7-11 Clemson team (if they get to 7-11). It's an open debate It's hard for some people to envision but there are 13 other games out there that matter.

has a team 4 games under .500 in conference play ever gotten an at large?

 

[jncuse]

95%. Beat Georgia Tech and we are clearly no worse than 9th in the ACC. While the conference affiliation doesn't stand on it's own it means we are firmly ahead of at least four other bubble teams (Pitt, Wake Forest, Clemson and Ga. Tech. ) 5% is to account for bracket busters winning conferences and bumping "locks" to at large slots.

1) If Wake beats Louisville on it's home court and manages to win one extra ACC tourney game than us, are you that sure we are ahead of them?

2) What if Wake wins at Virginia Tech and win one extra tourney game than Syracuse. Is that unreasonable? That's 2 road/neutral wins against our win at home against Georgia Tech.

3) What if Clemson wins it last 3 games (30% chance per Sagarin), and wins one more tourney game than us. You sure that we are ahead of them because of that one win vs Georgia Tech?

4) What if Vanderbilt wins its next 3 games, including a win at Arkansas. They then win an SEC game against a team that was close to or already in. Are you sure that are one win at Georgia Tech is going to lock us in?

5) What if Wichita St loses the MVC tourney? One spot is stolen.

6) What if TCU, Providence wins 2 more games to our 1 home win? Are you sure they are still behind us

There are too many teams with potential to catch us to think it's anywhere close to 95%. And a team just has to be close to us to bring in "committee judgment" which may not go our way.

 

[pearl31]

has a team 4 games under .500 in conference play ever gotten an at large?

I think I saw/heard the other day that Iowa St got in back in the late 80s at 5-9 in the big8

 

[jncuse]

has a team 4 games under .500 in conference play ever gotten an at large?

A few times yes. I think they would need to follow it up with a good win in the ACC tournament.

I think I read that Florida St got in one year at 6-10.

 

[pearl31]

1) If Wake beats Louisville on it's home court and manages to win one extra ACC tourney game than us, are you that sure we are ahead of them?

2) What if Wake wins at Virginia Tech and win one extra tourney game than Syracuse. Is that unreasonable? That's 2 road/neutral wins against our win at home against Georgia Tech.

3) What if Clemson wins it last 3 games (30% chance per Sagarin), and wins one more tourney game than us. You sure that we are ahead of them because of that one win vs Georgia Tech?

4) What if Vanderbilt wins its next 3 games, including a win at Arkansas. They then win an SEC game against a team that was close to or already in. Are you sure that are one win at Georgia Tech is going to lock us in?

5) What if Wichita St loses the MVC tourney? One spot is stolen.

6) What if TCU, Providence wins 2 more games to our 1 home win? Are you sure they are still behind us

There are too many teams with potential to catch us to think it's anywhere close to 95%. And a team just has to be close to us to bring in "committee judgment" which may not go our way.

yep, this

 

[CorduroyG]

can we replay the uconn gtown and st johns games? the team now would win at least 2 of those games and probably all 3 and we'd be talking seeding instead of bubble right now.

 

[jncuse]

For those that say Dick Vitale had us in. Dick always nominates to0 many teams as being in. He then cries sometimes about it.

 

[Consigliere]

Much less than 95%. Above 50%.

At 10-8 for example we are not firmly ahead of a 7-11 Clemson team (if they get to 7-11). It's an open debate at that point, that I think we should win but it's not clear cut. It's hard for some people to envision but there are 13 other games out there that matter.

And the # of teams in a conference really does not matter. It is important that we are ahead of all the other teams, but all those teams are currently on the outside. So why would they be afraid to put a fifth on the outside with a sketchy resume.

Why are they obligated to put 9 teams in the ACC? For those that say "they must put nine" i have a counter. "They must put 10".

Not obliged to put in 9 but obliged to put in 36 at large teams. It's tough to look at the college basketball landscape and not see at least 8 of the best 36 outside the ACC. And not to quibble but even if Clemson DOES win out that would entail beating Florida State for their first Top 25 win. We'd have a better record, a win on their home court and much better quality wins. Not close IMHO. Now if Pitt were to win out and we only win one more we might have something to discuss.

 

[CorduroyG]

Not obliged to put in 9 but obliged to put in 36 at large teams. It's tough to look at the college basketball landscape and not see at least 8 of the best 36 outside the ACC. And not to quibble but even if Clemson DOES win out that would entail beating Florida State for their first Top 25 win. We'd have a better record, a win on their home court and much better quality wins. Not close IMHO. Now if Pitt were to win out and we only win one more we might have something to discuss.

agree about clemson. i have a very hard time seeing them get in over us at 7-11 vs 10-8, especially with us beating them at their place. maaaaaaaaaaybe if we lose our first acc tourny get and they get to championship game, but that aint gonna happen.

 

[Briancuse]

Two wins completely locks it up. One may do it as well. Zero wins and I would be nervous

If we don't win another game, it would take a miracle for us to get in.

 

[pearl31]

agree about clemson. i have a very hard time seeing them get in over us at 7-11 vs 10-8, especially with us beating them at their place. maaaaaaaaaaybe if we lose our first acc tourny get and they get to championship game, but that aint gonna happen.

if the committee doesn't go by conf record (which they're not supposed to) Clemson has a considerably better non-con than us, including a win at S.Carolina and overall record could be quite similar to ours

 

[pearl31]

If we don't win another game, it would take a miracle for us to get in.

um have u been reading the posts in this thread (and in other threads) from those who are actually tuned in to this stuff? you should

 

[jncuse]

agree about clemson. i have a very hard time seeing them get in over us at 7-11 vs 10-8, especially with us beating them at their place. maaaaaaaaaaybe if we lose our first acc tourny get and they get to championship game, but that aint gonna happen.

They were a clear 2 games above us before entering conference play if you tried to convert those 13 games to a record. If they win one more ACC tourney game than us, the whole body of work can certainly be debated.

 

[Briancuse]

um have u been reading the posts in this thread (and in other threads) from those who are actually tuned in to this stuff? you should

Yes I read them all, if we lose the next three games we would be 17-15 losing 6 of our last 7 games, with some bad losses, I just don't see how we would get in, honestly if we can't beat Gt at home, and beat someone we should be able to beat in the acct, we don't deserve a bid.

 

[pearl31]

Yes I read them all, if we lose the next three games we would be 17-15 losing 6 of our last 7 games, with some bad losses, I just don't see how we would get in, honestly if we can't beat Gt at home, and beat someone we should be able to beat in the acct, we don't deserve a bid.

"don't dererve" ≠ miracle