NCAA Tournament Selection Discussion - Bubble Talk, ACC Teams, #1 Seeds, whatever you want to say

[jncuse]

Starting this thread which I tend to do annually and focus on bubble team. Won't be anything to detailed this year but chat about whatever you want related to the ultimate selection of teams next Sunday. There is already a thread going on about a 31-0 Miami team... that will get interesting if they lose.

 

[jncuse]

As I don't follow college basketball, or bubble detail, nearly like I used to, I tend to focus on the bracket matrix to then help me highlights things to follow / games to follow.

Here is the current bracket matrix

The Bracket Project's Bracket Matrix - 2024

 

[kirbivore]

All I know is the bracket committee are the laziest bunch of phlucks in sports and I don't spend an ounce of thought on major conference tourney results when it comes to the NCAA bracket outside of the outlier bid stealers like NC St. in 2024. This lazy bunch has that bracket finished by Noon Saturday.

 

[jncuse]

Current Bracket Matrix "standings" as of today, with result this weekend.
I'm always looking for chaos, so hoping teams above lose, and teams below win.

Last Teams in (% of bracket in, avg seed, game this weekend
6th Last In: Texas - 100% / 10.24 / vs Oklahoma (Q2) today 8:30
5th Ohio St - 100% / 10.56 / vs Indiana (Q2) today 5:30
4th SMU - 100% / 10.84 / at Florida St (Q1) lost 91-78
3rd Santa Clara - 100% / 11.00 / vs TBD Sunday
2nd VCU - 76% / 11.01 / at Dayton (Q1) Win 68-62
Last In Indiana - 52% / 11.02) at Ohio St (Q1) today 5:30

-------------------------------------------------

First Out - Auburn 40% - at Q1 Alabama 8:30
New Mexico 11% - at Q1 Utah St, lost 94-90
Virginia Tech 10% - at Q1 Virginia, lost by 4
Cal 5% - at Q1 Wake Forest, lost by 7
Cincy 5% - at Q1 TCU, lost by 10

 

[jncuse]

Brutal day for the ACC, especially for SMU and Cal. They had 10 teams in the discussion, but it could end up 7. But SMU, Cal and Virginia Tech could get back in the discussion with a top end Q1 win in the ACC tournament.

SMU could have possibly "confirmed" their bid with a doable Q1/Q2 win at FSU - they lose.
Cal has a winnable Q1 chance at Wake .. they lose.
Virginia Tech may have needed something big to put them over the top. Losing

 

[jncuse]

Based on how things went today, it could be a not too clouded bubble line. All 5 teams that were the first teams out, will likely blow Q1 win chances today to really elevate themselves. Although SMU and one of Ohio St/Indiana, will lose above the line.

Miami losing or a few bubble busters could create chaos. But the results today certainly are not creating max chaos which I want.

 

[jncuse]

Potential Bubble Busters as we enter tournament week. I really only see a high side of 3 big stealers as per below, and I think the likely scenario is either 1 or 2. Given that each of the 4 conferences have 7 to 10 teams getting in the tournament, I seriously doubt that a team that is "out" as of now would get in. Also think the WCC / Big East is highly unlikely to create a bid stealer as one of Gonzaga, St, Mary's and Santa Clara will win, and one of UConn/St. John's/Nova will win. But I suppose the Big East could have won.

#1. Miami (Ohio) - If they lose its not clear if they would get in or not.

#2. Mountain West (Utah St) - Utah St is the only MWC team that is a lock right now. But I think their chances of winning the MWC is probably 50% or less against the field. So a good chance their is a bid stealer here.

#3. Atlantic 10 (St. Louis / VCU) - St Louis is in. VCU is probably in. If someone else in the A-10 that steals a bid.

 

[kirbivore]

Potential Bubble Busters as we enter tournament week. I really only see a high side of 3 big stealers as per below, and I think the likely scenario is either 1 or 2. Given that each of the 4 conferences have 7 to 10 teams getting in the tournament, I seriously doubt that a team that is "out" as of now would get in. Also think the WCC / Big East is highly unlikely to create a bid stealer as one of Gonzaga, St, Mary's and Santa Clara will win, and one of UConn/St. John's/Nova will win. But I suppose the Big East could have won.

#1. Miami (Ohio) - If they lose its not clear if they would get in or not.

#2. Mountain West (Utah St) - Utah St is the only MWC team that is a lock right now. But I think their chances of winning the MWC is probably 50% or less against the field. So a good chance their is a bid stealer here.

#3. Atlantic 10 (St. Louis / VCU) - St Louis is in. VCU is probably in. If someone else in the A-10 that steals a bid.

IMO Miami, OH has to get into the championship game. If they lose to #2 Akron there I think the Redhawks sneak into the play in round.

 

[Blanko97]

I believe SMU is out barring a run to the finals, and as such, Andy enfield will be as well. We killed there season

 

[Newhouser]

The fact that more than 4 ACC teams are getting in speaks volumes about the state of college basketball.

 

[jncuse]

All I know is the bracket committee are the laziest bunch of phlucks in sports and I don't spend an ounce of thought on major conference tourney results when it comes to the NCAA bracket outside of the outlier bid stealers like NC St. in 2024. This lazy bunch has that bracket finished by Noon Saturday.

I think by noon Saturday, there is typically zero or just 1 team playing that would even be considered as a bubble team (there are bid stealers though). I don't think they are too lazy in terms of who gets in.

But for Sunday games, they are pretty much ignored from a seeding perspective. And they probably hope there are no bid stealers because they are often indeed lazy at the end.

 

[jncuse]

IMO Miami, OH has to get into the championship game. If they lose to #2 Akron there I think the Redhawks sneak into the play in round.

There is no history with Miami, so it's hard to say anything definitive.

But I do agree that losing to Akron would be a fairly clean loss for them... if they lose to Akron, Akron would become a borderline Q1/Q2 loss.

Everything else is a Q3 loss or worse, and that is the one argument they have over some others... as of now.

 

[jncuse]

I believe SMU is out barring a run to the finals, and as such, Andy enfield will be as well. We killed there season

I'm not sure if they have to reach the finals - one solid win could be enough, but certainly not for sure either. They put themselves in a hole down the stretch, and one extra loss to us could have done them in.
,
As we saw today nobody on the outside the "in line" made a move - they all had Q1 losses, some of them very winnable. Also depends on those 3 bubble buster scenarios above.

They were generally considered in "as of now" before today - today was a big blown opportunity, but is not a terrible loss metric wise. They certainly need to take care of business in the ACC first game, possibly second.

 

[jncuse]

The fact that more than 4 ACC teams are getting in speaks volumes about the state of college basketball.

The ACC was competitive with the B10, B12 and SEC in OOC play, so their # of seeds was expected to be fairly comparable when things were considered before conference play. So its not a major surprise that the ACC is going to get at least 7. maybe 8 teams. Maybe 9 if things break right in the ACC tourney,

 

[Briancuse]

Are we a 3 or 4 seed? Sorry couldn't resist.

 

[PoppyHart]

I'm not sure if they have to reach the finals - one solid win could be enough, but certainly not for sure either. They put themselves in a hole down the stretch, and one extra loss to us could have done them in.
,
As we saw today nobody on the outside the "in line" made a move - they all had Q1 losses, some of them very winnable. Also depends on those 3 bubble buster scenarios above.

They were generally considered in "as of now" before today - today was a big blown opportunity, but is not a terrible loss metric wise. They certainly need to take care of business in the ACC first game, possibly second.

Why should we be more impressed with SMU than Stanford? Or Va tech vs. Stanford? Or even NC State vs. Stanford.

 

[cuseattle]

UConn lost to an 11-19 Marquette team today. Looks like that knocks them off the 1 seed line for now.

 

[Charbroil]

Looking at the resumes of the last 4 in and the first 4 out is a good reminder as to why the inevitable NCAA tournament expansion is an insanely stupid idea.

 

[jncuse]

Why should we be more impressed with SMU than Stanford? Or Va tech vs. Stanford? Or even NC State vs. Stanford.

After today certainly not much.

I was basing my observations based on the rankings before today's game per the matrixI haven't dove into things nearly enough to scrub . teams. I'm more tracking the games of those on the bubble per the matrix, to try to get me up to speed.

There isn't that much to separate all these teams. What will hurt Stanford is those 3 Q3 losses -- committee does tend to use teams with multiple bad losses as a separator, which is why they are getting stung per the matrix. Entering today I would say there wasn't much difference between Tech, Cal and Stanford. Obviously a Q1 road win swings things a fair amount, so Stanford is clearly ahead of the two now. And incorporating today's game Stanford and SMU are not that far apart either.

With the first 5 out per the matrix all losing today, Stanford will certainly have some people having the, "in" before the ACC tournament. They will certainly be ahead of Cal and Virginia Tech in my books.

 

[jncuse]

Looking at the resumes of the last 4 in and the first 4 out is a good reminder as to why the inevitable NCAA tournament expansion is an insanely stupid idea.

There are two faulty arguments for expansion:

a) "There are good teams that are left out". No they aren't really that good -- they have some good wins, but they also tend to have many more "good" losses. Those teams all had the chance to prove they were above the bubble line but couldn't.

b) "I feel Team Y was better than Team X, but Team X is the only that got in. Expand so Team Y gets in". The problem with this one is whether it’s 68, 76, 80, there will still be some close calls on the final few teams which there will be disagreement on. So it's not a valid argument.

 

[Charbroil]

There are two faulty arguments for expansion:

a) "There are good teams that are left out". No they aren't really that good -- they have some good wins, but they also tend to have many more "good" losses. Those teams all had the chance to prove they were above the bubble line but couldn't.

b) "I feel Team Y was better than Team X, but Team X is the only that got in. Expand so Team X gets in". The problem with this one is whether its 68, 76, 80, there will still be some close calls on the final few teams which there will be disagreement on. So it's not a valid argument.

I agree these are bad arguments. And I believe the powers that be who make these kinds of statements know they are BS, but don’t want to tell us the real reason for expansion.

I would actually have slightly more respect for the NCAA if they just told us the truth. Just tell us you want to expand the tournament to make more $$. Obviously that will never happen though.

 

[jncuse]

The ACC is all over the bubble at this point - and all 3 teams play against sub par competition today. SMU, Stanford and Virginia Tech blow their tourney hopes with losses this week.

SMU is still consensus in per the matrix, entering tournament week -- 114 of 123 brackets entering today, and avg 10.95 seed. That is a vulnerable position with a bad loss, or bubble busters. Syracuse can really mess them up by beating them twice.

I'm not really digging into resumes much, more using the matrix as a guide for games to watch this week. As Poppy raised above, not much difference between SMU and Stanford. Stanford is getting some support (33 of 123 have them in). So get a Q1 win this week and they certainly have a chance.

Current matrix entering today

4th last in - Santa Clara (120 of 123), 10,89 (vs Gonzaga tonight for WCC title)
3rd last in - VCU (118 of 123), 10.98 (plays Friday - TBD)
2nd last in - SMU (114 of 123), 10.95 (today vs Syracuse
Last in - Indiana (60 of 123), 11.00 (Plays Wednesday - TBD)

---------- in/out line----------------

First out - Stanford (33 of 123) (today vs Pitt)
Second out - Virginia Tech (16 of 123) (today vs Wake)
Third out - Auburn (15 of 123) (Wednesday vs 13-18 Miss St)
4th out - New Mexico 7
5th out - San Deigo St 5

 

[jncuse]

I believe SMU is out barring a run to the finals, and as such, Andy enfield will be as well. We killed there season

They are still in 114 of 123 brackets today per the matrix (a little surprising at first), but the teams below them are not overly impressive.

I'm not digging deep into things this year, but its more likely than not they get in if
a) If they beat Syracuse today
b) There is 1 or less bubble busters.

 

[Briancuse]

They are still in 114 of 123 brackets today per the matrix (a little surprising at first), but when you look at the teams below them its not all that impressive.

I'm not digging deep into things this year, but its more likely than not they get in if
a) If they beat Syracuse today
b) There is 1 or less bubble busters.

They have some really good wins. 4 quad 1 wins i believe.

 

[Starman]

I was getting into a heated but relatively polite argument with a Miami, OH fan on reddit about the AP poll. He thinks they deserve an AP ranking of 17 (lol). It was interesting because the AP pollsters had no idea what to do with them. They were as high as 8th and as low as left off.

Based just on their stats (I didn't watch them at all), I can't imagine them as a top 25 team. Even the fan couldn't list a single team when I asked him who else on the poll SHOULD they beat. He could only come up with teams that they COULD/MIGHT beat.

Maybe it's a stupid question, but it's interesting to me: do they deserve a ranking purely on going undefeated?