General20
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We have an absolutely fascinating match up with Wisconsin coming up tomorrow, and if we can win it, either a blockbuster Ohio St. showdown or a Cincinnati rematch (it seems like every time conference rivals match up in the elite 8 the game is epic). It should be an amazing tournament, so I wanted to throw a few thoughts out there about it.
Almost everybody you talk to or hear from is saying Syracuse played terrible in game one against Asheville, and great in game two against K State. I'd say Syracuse played about the same in each. In fact, I will say that Syracuse has been by far the most consistent team in the country all year long. The difference between SU consistently blowing out opponents early in the season, and SU consistently playing close games late in the season had everything to do with the opponents. Specifically the fact that early in the season all teams turn the ball over more than they do late in the season, take away all the free points SU got from turnovers and you account for the discrepancy in margin of victory (Syracuse relies on, and is better at converting, turnovers into points then any team in the country).
To account for the difference between UNC Asheville and Kansas St. you have to account for the fact that Asheville used the blue print for how to beat SU and Kansas St. did not. Unfortunately for Syracuse, yes there is a blue print on how to beat them. Play a soft zone where all five guys take responsibility for keeping people out of the lane, and give up open three point shots if they have to - dont turn the ball over - get back on defense. If you play that way you will at least make Syracuse look bad, if not win the game. That is how Cincinnati beat us in the Big East tournament, and how Asheville made us look bad in round 1 of this tournament. Kansas St. played a high pressure defense and all of a sudden Syracuse looked like a world beater again, this is no coincidence.
The good news is, the blue print on how to beat SU is an extremely unusual one, and the polar opposite of how most teams like to play (credit Boeheim for building the perfect system). Not many teams will even try it. Wisconsin wont. In fact, of all the possible match ups we have left, only Cincinnati will employ that defense against us.
Onto the Wisconsin game. Yes, they are going to slow the game down, and no, SU cannot force them to speed up by pressing. I watched Wisconsin play North Carolina this year, who pressed them all game long. Wisconsin simply broke the press and continued to milk the clock. Pressing does not make you shoot early if you dont want to. Wisconsin has an All American senior point guard in Taylor, and they turn the ball over less than just about any team in the country so anybody thinking press should let that dream go right now. Wisconsin is built to handle the press, and Wisconsin is going to succeed in slowing the game down. This is ok. Almost every team Syracuse has played this year has tried to slow the game down, so SU is just as experienced at winning slow paced games as Wisconsin is, and even more successful at it.
I think every fan of both sides would agree that if Wisconsin is hitting the three point shot efficiently against SU they are going to win the game. The question is, what do they have to do to pull this off? Wisconsin is capable of playing all five guys outside the three point line, or four in and one out, or three in and two out. They will never have more than two guys inside at a time.
If Wisconsin plays four or five out, and simply tries to shuttle the ball around the perimeter, they are going to find it nearly impossible to shoot efficiently over Syracuse's athletic group 6'8 forwards and 6'4 guards. Their only chance is to play three out and two in - with their center down low, engaging Christmas, and their forward Evans in the middle of the zone. Evans can take and hit the mid range jump shot, and it seems to me that he is peaking right now. If Wisconsin wants to generate open shots against SU they are going to have to go to Evans in the middle, hope he can hit a few shots and force SU to collapse, opening up the three ball.
The problem with this strategy is that while Evans has all the tools necessary to shine against SU's zone, he is the one player on Wisconsin who has problems with turnovers and decision making. If Wisconsin run their offense through Evans they may sacrifice the turnover free efficient style of play that has gotten them this far. And we all know what Syracuse does to teams that turn the ball over.
However, expect Wisconsin to go to Evans in mid-range early and often, because the alternative for Wisconsin is 4 players outside the arc, dribble drive and kick for a three, and I dont think that will play well against SU's zone at all.
On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin is going to get back on defense and not allow many easy baskets. Expect them to play a physical high pressure man defense that contests any outside shots. Expect Scoop and Waiters to be on the floor for the vast majority of this game. They are going to have to drive, draw help from Wisconsin's bigs (who are most likely to help, Wisconsin does not like to leave shooters open) and find the open man.
This is a good place to do a Melo damage report. How has his absence hurt us? How will it hurt us? Against Asheville, we hardly missed Melo at all. Against Kansas State, his absence did not lead to more rebounds for them (as you hear a lot), but it did lead to more points. The dirty little secret nobody talks about is that while SU gets out rebounded often, they dont usually lose the battle of second chance points (and if they do its by a nominal margin). A lot of the credit for this must be given to Melo. Its hard to convert offensive rebounds into points with him under the basket. Kansas State found it easier to convert offensive rebounds than they would have if Melo were there, and thus won the battle for second chance points.
Against Wisconsin I expect a lot of drives and dishes to our bigs. Melo was pretty good at converting these, especially in lob form, and he and Jardine had a nice connection when it came to this. Losing it will hurt even though Christmas is capable of catching and converting down low. Where Melo's absence really scares me is in the event Christmas gets into foul trouble. Kieta will be fine defensively against Wisconsin, but I dont want too rely on him to catch the ball and convert it down low on offense.
I look at Southerland as a Get Out of Jail Free card. I knew, going into the tournament, that there would be at least one game and maybe more where if he didnt shoot well we would lose. As it turns out, we cashed that ticket in right off the bat. If Southerland plays poorly against Asheville we lose. If he had played poorly against Kansas State, I still think we would have won, but not by as much. Even though he has been maybe our best player so far, this is not going to be his kind of game (though I hope he stays hot because we will need to cash in that Get Out of Jail Free card one more time if we play Cincinnati).
This type of physical, scrappy, defensive game is really where CJ Fair butters his bread so to speak. We are most likely going to need him to shine, which is a bit scary considering he is mired in what is really the first slump of his career. I am hoping a week of practice, and the fact that all he has to focus on is working the baseline, catching the ball and finishing (or getting the offensive rebound) once the guards have drawn his defender, means he can be relied upon.
In my opinion, Wisconsin's biggest advantage is that their most important X factor (Evans) is peaking, while the most important X factor for Syracuse (Fair) is slumping.
Conversely, Syracuse's biggest advantage is that both Scoop and Waiters are well equipped to break pressure defense down off the dribble and either score themselves or find open players down low. Boeheim will find which one is hot, or which one has the bigger mismatch and let him go to work. That combination has never failed to succeed for Syracuse against pressure defense.
I think if you took a poll asking who the best guard in this tournament is, Taylor from Wisconsin would get a lot of the votes, and rightfully so, he is very good. But the best guard in this tournament is Dion Waiters. I'd be shocked if he had less than 15 against Wisconsin.
I will be honest, in my bracket I have Wisconsin beating SU in this game. Looking back I think I was maybe a little too pessimistic filling my brackets out immediately after the Melo news broke. With fresh eyes, I see this as a game which will come down to the wire and be decided by a play or two on either side, Syracuse has been remarkable in those types of games this year, playing in tons of them and winning them all. So I will give SU a slight edge, but this is a 50/50 proposition by any reasonable definition. Should be fun.
Almost everybody you talk to or hear from is saying Syracuse played terrible in game one against Asheville, and great in game two against K State. I'd say Syracuse played about the same in each. In fact, I will say that Syracuse has been by far the most consistent team in the country all year long. The difference between SU consistently blowing out opponents early in the season, and SU consistently playing close games late in the season had everything to do with the opponents. Specifically the fact that early in the season all teams turn the ball over more than they do late in the season, take away all the free points SU got from turnovers and you account for the discrepancy in margin of victory (Syracuse relies on, and is better at converting, turnovers into points then any team in the country).
To account for the difference between UNC Asheville and Kansas St. you have to account for the fact that Asheville used the blue print for how to beat SU and Kansas St. did not. Unfortunately for Syracuse, yes there is a blue print on how to beat them. Play a soft zone where all five guys take responsibility for keeping people out of the lane, and give up open three point shots if they have to - dont turn the ball over - get back on defense. If you play that way you will at least make Syracuse look bad, if not win the game. That is how Cincinnati beat us in the Big East tournament, and how Asheville made us look bad in round 1 of this tournament. Kansas St. played a high pressure defense and all of a sudden Syracuse looked like a world beater again, this is no coincidence.
The good news is, the blue print on how to beat SU is an extremely unusual one, and the polar opposite of how most teams like to play (credit Boeheim for building the perfect system). Not many teams will even try it. Wisconsin wont. In fact, of all the possible match ups we have left, only Cincinnati will employ that defense against us.
Onto the Wisconsin game. Yes, they are going to slow the game down, and no, SU cannot force them to speed up by pressing. I watched Wisconsin play North Carolina this year, who pressed them all game long. Wisconsin simply broke the press and continued to milk the clock. Pressing does not make you shoot early if you dont want to. Wisconsin has an All American senior point guard in Taylor, and they turn the ball over less than just about any team in the country so anybody thinking press should let that dream go right now. Wisconsin is built to handle the press, and Wisconsin is going to succeed in slowing the game down. This is ok. Almost every team Syracuse has played this year has tried to slow the game down, so SU is just as experienced at winning slow paced games as Wisconsin is, and even more successful at it.
I think every fan of both sides would agree that if Wisconsin is hitting the three point shot efficiently against SU they are going to win the game. The question is, what do they have to do to pull this off? Wisconsin is capable of playing all five guys outside the three point line, or four in and one out, or three in and two out. They will never have more than two guys inside at a time.
If Wisconsin plays four or five out, and simply tries to shuttle the ball around the perimeter, they are going to find it nearly impossible to shoot efficiently over Syracuse's athletic group 6'8 forwards and 6'4 guards. Their only chance is to play three out and two in - with their center down low, engaging Christmas, and their forward Evans in the middle of the zone. Evans can take and hit the mid range jump shot, and it seems to me that he is peaking right now. If Wisconsin wants to generate open shots against SU they are going to have to go to Evans in the middle, hope he can hit a few shots and force SU to collapse, opening up the three ball.
The problem with this strategy is that while Evans has all the tools necessary to shine against SU's zone, he is the one player on Wisconsin who has problems with turnovers and decision making. If Wisconsin run their offense through Evans they may sacrifice the turnover free efficient style of play that has gotten them this far. And we all know what Syracuse does to teams that turn the ball over.
However, expect Wisconsin to go to Evans in mid-range early and often, because the alternative for Wisconsin is 4 players outside the arc, dribble drive and kick for a three, and I dont think that will play well against SU's zone at all.
On the other side of the ball, Wisconsin is going to get back on defense and not allow many easy baskets. Expect them to play a physical high pressure man defense that contests any outside shots. Expect Scoop and Waiters to be on the floor for the vast majority of this game. They are going to have to drive, draw help from Wisconsin's bigs (who are most likely to help, Wisconsin does not like to leave shooters open) and find the open man.
This is a good place to do a Melo damage report. How has his absence hurt us? How will it hurt us? Against Asheville, we hardly missed Melo at all. Against Kansas State, his absence did not lead to more rebounds for them (as you hear a lot), but it did lead to more points. The dirty little secret nobody talks about is that while SU gets out rebounded often, they dont usually lose the battle of second chance points (and if they do its by a nominal margin). A lot of the credit for this must be given to Melo. Its hard to convert offensive rebounds into points with him under the basket. Kansas State found it easier to convert offensive rebounds than they would have if Melo were there, and thus won the battle for second chance points.
Against Wisconsin I expect a lot of drives and dishes to our bigs. Melo was pretty good at converting these, especially in lob form, and he and Jardine had a nice connection when it came to this. Losing it will hurt even though Christmas is capable of catching and converting down low. Where Melo's absence really scares me is in the event Christmas gets into foul trouble. Kieta will be fine defensively against Wisconsin, but I dont want too rely on him to catch the ball and convert it down low on offense.
I look at Southerland as a Get Out of Jail Free card. I knew, going into the tournament, that there would be at least one game and maybe more where if he didnt shoot well we would lose. As it turns out, we cashed that ticket in right off the bat. If Southerland plays poorly against Asheville we lose. If he had played poorly against Kansas State, I still think we would have won, but not by as much. Even though he has been maybe our best player so far, this is not going to be his kind of game (though I hope he stays hot because we will need to cash in that Get Out of Jail Free card one more time if we play Cincinnati).
This type of physical, scrappy, defensive game is really where CJ Fair butters his bread so to speak. We are most likely going to need him to shine, which is a bit scary considering he is mired in what is really the first slump of his career. I am hoping a week of practice, and the fact that all he has to focus on is working the baseline, catching the ball and finishing (or getting the offensive rebound) once the guards have drawn his defender, means he can be relied upon.
In my opinion, Wisconsin's biggest advantage is that their most important X factor (Evans) is peaking, while the most important X factor for Syracuse (Fair) is slumping.
Conversely, Syracuse's biggest advantage is that both Scoop and Waiters are well equipped to break pressure defense down off the dribble and either score themselves or find open players down low. Boeheim will find which one is hot, or which one has the bigger mismatch and let him go to work. That combination has never failed to succeed for Syracuse against pressure defense.
I think if you took a poll asking who the best guard in this tournament is, Taylor from Wisconsin would get a lot of the votes, and rightfully so, he is very good. But the best guard in this tournament is Dion Waiters. I'd be shocked if he had less than 15 against Wisconsin.
I will be honest, in my bracket I have Wisconsin beating SU in this game. Looking back I think I was maybe a little too pessimistic filling my brackets out immediately after the Melo news broke. With fresh eyes, I see this as a game which will come down to the wire and be decided by a play or two on either side, Syracuse has been remarkable in those types of games this year, playing in tons of them and winning them all. So I will give SU a slight edge, but this is a 50/50 proposition by any reasonable definition. Should be fun.
