NET and KenPom Tracker 23-24 (SU = 84 3/9/24)

[Fly Rodder]

Takes a couple of months for the computer rankings to have enough data to be relatively accurate

Yeah, there is a lot of variation in the early going, but the the std deviations get smaller and smaller as the season progresses and more teams play each other.

 

[jncuse]

Ken Pom has said the data tends to align itself quite strongly after 8-10 games, where most of the pre-season rankings have washed away, and there are enough results between teams to connect them more effectively.

That being said Vegas pretty much relies on KP (or uses a very similar system) as odds are always within a few points of his line based on adjusted EM). There are some early opportunities but then you would need to figure out which teams are better than expected which is tough to do in this new world of high turnover college basketball.

 

[jdubs30]

LSU certainly did not pass the eye test last night and they had the bad home loss to Nichols State.

But they beat North Texas, Wake (2 top 100 teams), and lost to Dayton despite being up by 15 in the 2H.

 

[M2MPrinciples]

We jumped 26 spots in one game. That's pretty tough to do, even if it is late November. I'd much rather focus on that.

 

[jncuse]

LSU certainly did not pass the eye test last night and they had the bad home loss to Nichols State.

But they beat North Texas, Wake (2 top 100 teams), and lost to Dayton despite being up by 15 in the 2H.

The other thing that probably really helped LSU's ranking is beating Miss Valley St by nearly 50 points. Miss Valley St is a terrible team (worst in the country), but they would only be favoured by about 25 vs them right now. So beating that expectation by 20 points or so (when you have only played 7 games) is going to boost your AdjEM.

Anomalies like this will skew things when you only have limited game data. But they will even out as more and more games are played.

 

[NineOneSeven]

LSU is much worse than their name. They probably finish several games under .500 again.

 

[jncuse]

We jumped 26 spots in one game. That's pretty tough to do, even if it is late November. I'd much rather focus on that.

The numbers make sense. The game was close to a pick'em at home, and one team beating the expectation by a lot will move things a lot when only 7 games are played.

As an equivalent, by my rough calculation, as of now KP views this type of victory similar to us beating Virginia on the road by about 10 points. LSU is now down to #91, so perhaps they maintain this pace so our margin over them keeps that same relevancy.

We beat them by 23 so about 23 points over expectation. 23 divided by 7 games is approximately 3.

#126 in the country has an AdjEM right now of +3.7... add 3.0 to that and you get close to the +6.7 that Syracuse is currently at, which allowed them to jump to #100 this morning.

 

[SWC75]

Next year there will be a 'Power 4'. I'd like to see a 'challenge' once a week between them. The ACC could have a challenge vs. the Big 10 in week one, the SEC in week 2 and the Big 12 in Week 3 and the others could alternate in the same way. It would give everyone a good view as to where the conferences stand to open the season.

 

[Sbucketball]

Next year there will be a 'Power 4'. I'd like to see a 'challenge' once a week between them. The ACC could have a challenge vs. the Big 10 in week one, the SEC in week 2 and the Big 12 in Week 3 and the others could alternate in the same way. It would give everyone a good view as to where the conferences stand to open the season.

That would be a great idea, but it would require the media to play nice with each other.

 

[CusefanATL]

LSU certainly did not pass the eye test last night and they had the bad home loss to Nichols State.

But they beat North Texas, Wake (2 top 100 teams), and lost to Dayton despite being up by 15 in the 2H.

Please enlighten us why North Texas and Wake are top 100? (not meant at you, but mainly kenpom)

 

[Cusefan0307]

Please enlighten us why North Texas and Wake are top 100? (not meant at you, but mainly kenpom)

It’s based on recent historical performance and the rating of recruits/transfers signed. We’ve stunk the past two years so our initial rating was around 100. we failed to cover the spread in the first 6 games and it dropped about 30 spots.

 

[jncuse]

Next year there will be a 'Power 4'. I'd like to see a 'challenge' once a week between them. The ACC could have a challenge vs. the Big 10 in week one, the SEC in week 2 and the Big 12 in Week 3 and the others could alternate in the same way. It would give everyone a good view as to where the conferences stand to open the season.

The best time to do some of these challenges would actually be during a week or two in conference season. Would actually add some entertainment and probably viewers for a time in early to mid February when things are a bit stale.

 

[Sbucketball]

Syracuse is now at 100, and LSU at 91.

If I were Kenny, I would consider not publishing the rankings until December -- obviously the point is it tightens up over time, but it loses credibility during the first month, especially in the new era of the portal where the previous year is not always a good indicator of success. Syracuse started over 100 because it was bad last year and had a coaching change.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Syracuse is now at 100, and LSU at 91.

If I were Kenny, I would consider not publishing the rankings until December -- obviously the point is it tightens up over time, but it loses credibility during the first month, especially in the new era of the portal where the previous year is not always a good indicator of success. Syracuse started over 100 because it was bad last year and had a coaching change.

He sells the ratings so good luck with that. It’s an excellent source for data when you’re gambling.

 

[Sbucketball]

The best time to do some of these challenges would actually be during a week or two in conference season. Would actually add some entertainment and probably viewers for a time in early to mid February when things are a bit stale.

I think these challenges have a decent size impact on NET, and it's much easier for the NCAA to adjust NET prior to conference play instead of in February, at which time NET doesn't move as much. Of course that's bad for the ACC in recent years because the ACC has a lot of late bloomers, and if it begins conference play as the 6th best conference and the teams only play each other, it's much harder to improve the NET or otherwise tell how much the league as a whole improved.

 

[CusefanATL]

It’s based on recent historical performance and the rating of recruits/transfers signed. We’ve stunk the past two years so our initial rating was around 100. we failed to cover the spread in the first 6 games and it dropped about 30 spots.

OK... LSU lost to Nicholls and Dayton and got BOAT RACED vs Syracuse. Syracuse lost to 2 top 10 teams.

How can LSU be ranked higher at 3-3 with no good wins themselves than Syracuse (keep in mind Syracuse BOAT RACED LSU yesterday. That is an important factor to consider here).

I also said this when the game was a pick em on CBS yesterday FYI. I thought for sure Cuse would be favored by 7-10.

 

[jncuse]

Please enlighten us why North Texas and Wake are top 100? (not meant at you, but mainly kenpom)

North Texas won the NIT last year. They are a pretty good program recently relative to mid-majors. They probably had a fairly good starting point on KP -- that is starting to lose some relevance as more and more games are played.

 

[Cusefan0307]

OK... LSU lost to Nicholls and Dayton and got BOAT RACED vs Syracuse. Syracuse lost to 2 top 10 teams.

How can LSU be ranked higher at 3-3 with no good wins themselves than Syracuse (keep in mind Syracuse BOAT RACED LSU yesterday. That is an important factor to consider here).

I also said this when the game was a pick em on CBS yesterday FYI. I thought for sure Cuse would be favored by 7-10.

You’re leaving out that LSU beat Wake in South Carolina on a neutral court. Wake began the season ranked higher than Syracuse. Nobody is saying Kenpom is completely accurate at this point in the season, but Syracuse was entering the game actually trending down on their grading based on the fact we had not covered the spread at all against any D1 team we played.

 

[CusefanATL]

You’re leaving out that LSU beat Wake in South Carolina on a neutral court. Wake began the season ranked higher than Syracuse. Nobody is saying Kenpom is completely accurate at this point in the season, but Syracuse was entering the game actually trending down on their grading based on the fact we had not covered the spread at all against any D1 team we played.

I thought Cuse would win by 15
my best friend who is an LSU fan thought cuse would win by 25

that was based on our eyes.

Kenpom thought it was an even game even considering Cuse home court "advantage"

Kenpom still thinks LSU > Cuse.

 

[SWC75]

OK... LSU lost to Nicholls and Dayton and got BOAT RACED vs Syracuse. Syracuse lost to 2 top 10 teams.

How can LSU be ranked higher at 3-3 with no good wins themselves than Syracuse (keep in mind Syracuse BOAT RACED LSU yesterday. That is an important factor to consider here).

I also said this when the game was a pick em on CBS yesterday FYI. I thought for sure Cuse would be favored by 7-10.

Why does "BOAT RACED" mean "blown out"? Just wondering.

 

[jncuse]

I think these challenges have a decent size impact on NET, and it's much easier for the NCAA to adjust NET prior to conference play instead of in February, at which time NET doesn't move as much. Of course that's bad for the ACC in recent years because the ACC has a lot of late bloomers, and if it begins conference play as the 6th best conference and the teams only play each other, it's much harder to improve the NET or otherwise tell how much the league as a whole improved.

Perhaps I am mis-reading your comment, but the NCAA is not adjusting the NET at any time in the year. Its formulaic based on results.

I know some people like Bees and Bill totally bought into the ACC NET Conspiracy presented by the ACC commissioner last March and said there was some "magic" potion NCAA adjustment in the NET that hurt the ACC. It had nothing to do with that - in OOC Metrics (non NET), and just the basic W-L's, good and bad, the ACC and the P-12 were very far behind the other 4 conferences, and especially the top 2 conferences. It was a large gao.

The good thing is that early on without doing a deep dive, the ACC may be #4 to #6, but the gap from the top conferences is not nearly as big as last year (at least so far)

 

[Cusefan0307]

I thought Cuse would win by 15
my best friend who is an LSU fan thought cuse would win by 25

that was based on our eyes.

Kenpom thought it was an even game even considering Cuse home court "advantage"

Kenpom still thinks LSU > Cuse.

I hope you put money down on Cuse then. The game does not change with beating a team one game. Like the years we beat Duke at Cameron we did not jump them in Kenpom or Net/RPI.

 

[CusefanATL]

Why does "BOAT RACED" mean "blown out"? Just wondering.

urban dictionary told us?

 

[CusefanATL]

I hope you put money down on Cuse then. The game does not change with beating a team one game. Like the years we beat Duke at Cameron we did not jump them in Kenpom or Net/RPI.

unfortunately i gave up illegal gambling when it became legal. and i live in NY. i used to clean up on Cuse which saved me from non cuse betting.

Now, because i can tweet to a keuka college basketball player, i cant bet on Cuse.

 

[SWC75]

urban dictionary told us?

Do they have boat races in the city?