NET and KenPom Tracker 23-24 (SU = 84 3/9/24)

[721Comstock]

Why does "BOAT RACED" mean "blown out"? Just wondering.

Here, let me google that for you

Urban Dictionary: boat raced

To be beaten very badly at something, especially in such a fashion that you were behind from the start and never had a chance. Comes from the Boat Race, an annual rowing competition between Oxford and Cambridge, in which the first side to get ahead can move to the middle of the river (where the...

www.urbandictionary.com

To be beaten very badly at something, especially in such a fashion that you were behind from the start and never had a chance.

Comes from the Boat Race, an annual rowing competition between Oxford and Cambridge,
in which the first side to get ahead can move to the middle of the river (where the current is fastest) and is almost never overtaken thereafter.
"Chicago got boat raced by Green Bay, 37-3."

 

[SWC75]

Here, let me google that for you

Urban Dictionary: boat raced

To be beaten very badly at something, especially in such a fashion that you were behind from the start and never had a chance. Comes from the Boat Race, an annual rowing competition between Oxford and Cambridge, in which the first side to get ahead can move to the middle of the river (where the...

www.urbandictionary.com

To be beaten very badly at something, especially in such a fashion that you were behind from the start and never had a chance.

Comes from the Boat Race, an annual rowing competition between Oxford and Cambridge,
in which the first side to get ahead can move to the middle of the river (where the current is fastest) and is almost never overtaken thereafter.
"Chicago got boat raced by Green Bay, 37-3."

Well, that doesn't apply to last night's game. We pulled ahead IN the middle of the river.

 

[jncuse]

OK... LSU lost to Nicholls and Dayton and got BOAT RACED vs Syracuse. Syracuse lost to 2 top 10 teams.

How can LSU be ranked higher at 3-3 with no good wins themselves than Syracuse (keep in mind Syracuse BOAT RACED LSU yesterday. That is an important factor to consider here).

I also said this when the game was a pick em on CBS yesterday FYI. I thought for sure Cuse would be favored by 7-10.

2 Things (I'll expand on each later)
1. It's an efficiency/ margin based system (SOS adjusted). Not purely about W and L's. Its also about ranking 362 teams so margin more effectively ranks them especially with very different schedule strengths.
2. It takes an average of about 8 D1 games per team for the current season to be close to well connected per KP, and for the pre-season rankings to fully lose their significance.

I will also add the following as I ran the numbers to keep my brain active:
A team ranked #90 in KP, would be expected to have won the "Syracuse Schedule" by a net total of 13 points so far. Syracuse has won by 14. So 1 above expectation

A team ranked #90 in KP, would be expected to have the won the "LSU Schedule" by a net total of 50 points. LSU has won by 40 points. So 10 below expectation.



So in essence Syracuse has played better than LSU this year based on looking at the rankings of other teams in KP, by a somewhat slight margin (11 points overall -- and that is because of their head to head matchup) So why are they ranked slightly lower? This is where point #2 comes into play. I'm not sure why LSU was ranked higher to start the year but it is the reason why LSU remains slightly above Syracuse. But the impact of that will be wiped out fully within a few games.

KP himself will tell you that his pre-season rankings are quite arbitrary and that the strength of his system comes closer to the 10 game mark, when all pre-season rankings are no longer part of his system and data starts to become well connected. But he has to at least attempt to evaluate teams to start the season, otherwise there would be no way to rank teams for the first 5-7 games of the season. Sometimes you have to listen to what people say about their own systems.

(Expanding on #1 above - one could view that beating Miss Valley St, a horrible team by 20 points above expectation is meaningless, but to rank 362 teams effectively margin really needs to be used... and one-off anomalies against nobodies will lose a lot of importance over 30 games, but not 7. That being said the Miss Valley St +20 game, is effectively wiped out by the Nicholls St loss being 16 points below expectations.

Also if one tried to look at one off W's and L's, and then at schedules, they would drive themselves nuts trying to rank 362 teams).

 

[CusefanATL]

2 Things (I'll expand on each later)
1. It's an efficiency/ margin based system (SOS adjusted). Not purely about W and L's. Its also about ranking 362 teams so margin more effectively ranks them especially with very different schedule strengths.
2. It takes an average of about 8 D1 games per team for the current season to be close to well connected per KP, and for the pre-season rankings to fully lose their significance.

I will also add the following as I ran the numbers to keep my brain active:
A team ranked #90 in KP, would be expected to have won the "Syracuse Schedule" by a net total of 13 points so far. Syracuse has won by 14. So 1 above expectation

A team ranked #90 in KP, would be expected to have the won the "LSU Schedule" by a net total of 50 points. LSU has won by 40 points. So 10 below expectation.



So in essence Syracuse has played better than LSU this year based on looking at the rankings of other teams in KP, by a somewhat slight margin (11 points overall -- and that is because of their head to head matchup) So why are they ranked slightly lower? This is where point #2 comes into play. I'm not sure why LSU was ranked higher to start the year but it is the reason why LSU remains slightly above Syracuse. But the impact of that will be wiped out fully within a few games.

KP himself will tell you that his pre-season rankings are quite arbitrary and that the strength of his system comes closer to the 10 game mark, when all pre-season rankings are no longer part of his system and data starts to become well connected. But he has to at least attempt to evaluate teams to start the season, otherwise there would be no way to rank teams for the first 5-7 games of the season. Sometimes you have to listen to what people say about their own systems.

(Expanding on #1 above - one could view that beating Miss Valley St, a horrible team by 20 points above expectation is meaningless, but to rank 362 teams effectively margin really needs to be used... and one-off anomalies against nobodies will lose a lot of importance over 30 games, but not 7. That being said the Miss Valley St +20 game, is effectively wiped out by the Nicholls St loss being 16 points below expectations.

Also if one tried to look at one off W's and L's, and then at schedules, they would drive themselves nuts trying to rank 362 teams).

Which brings me to my main point (which can be found on Twitter)

What is the point of having these flawed rankings until New Year’s Day when the data can actually flow?

 

[jncuse]

Which brings me to my main point (which can be found on Twitter)

What is the point of having these flawed rankings until New Year’s Day when the data can actually flow?

By game 7, KP is starting to become quite effective as most preseason stuff is now gone from the formula. But not at its fullest effectiveness either. Its fairly good information as of now. Before game 4 or 5, it's very arbitrary.

If you are using KP to get hung up why a team is ranked #91 instead of #100, IMO you are not using KP effectively as of now, or really at any time. KP tells us that teams #91 and #100 are highly comparable level teams -- about a difference of one point per game). Even KP will never tell you that #91 is better than #100 - or that #4 is better than #6,. he will tell you those are very comparable level teams. And based on overall results this year vs margin the Syracuse and LSU are quite comparable so I'm not sure why you are getting overly hung up i.e #91 vs #100.

I'm not looking at Syracuse vs team between #90-#110, and saying why are they ranked worse or better than those teams. I look at the rankings and think those are comparable teams / peer teams based on how we have played to date. There may be one or two teams that I question, but it gives a good general view of where we are (so far).

Same thing when I see one of our opponents at #250... a decent amount of context can be derived from that. But I am also not going to look at it and say hey that #250 team that we beat, is better than that #238 team.

 

[littlereg]

FYI the sec/big12 challenge was always the last weekend in janaury which was perfect. It gave teams the chance to have a litmus test outside of the conference during the middle of the conference play. It helped computer rankings because it becomes very stagnant in conference play with the same teams playing over and over.

 

[Sbucketball]

Virginia #32 v. Syracuse #99 on kenpom. Great opportunity for a Q1 win for NET, and also a great opportunity to improve our NET prior to the thick of the ACC schedule, at which time it's harder to make big moves up.

 

[jdubs30]

Virginia #32 v. Syracuse #99 on kenpom. Great opportunity for a Q1 win for NET, and also a great opportunity to improve our NET prior to the thick of the ACC schedule, at which time it's harder to make big moves up.

We do have more chances down the line, but getting a road win like this under our belt this early could be massive come March.

 

[CardiacCuse]

Virginia #32 v. Syracuse #99 on kenpom. Great opportunity for a Q1 win for NET, and also a great opportunity to improve our NET prior to the thick of the ACC schedule, at which time it's harder to make big moves up.

not sure what you mean...

the numerical impact might not be as dramatic once many games have been played but each game is equally important for the ratings...games against higher ranked teams always are big opportunities all year long.

if this game was being played in february it would be just as important as it is now.

 

[jdubs30]

not sure what you mean...

the numerical impact might not be as dramatic once many games have been played but each game is equally important for the ratings...games against higher ranked teams always are big opportunities all year long.

if this game was being played in february it would be just as important as it is now.

The sample size is way smaller now. So 1 win will give us more significant bump now as opposed to February. But you’re right ultimately at the end of the year it’s all the same

 

[Sbucketball]

The sample size is way smaller now. So 1 win will give us more significant bump now as opposed to February. But you’re right ultimately at the end of the year it’s all the same

And also, although this doesnt apply to the Virginia game since they’re in our conference, it’s important for ACC teams to win early in the year and improve net going into the season, because once the thick of it starts we’re only playing each other which can cause NET degrade and doesn’t permit improvement or accurately reflect the level of teams. And if that happens, it’s important for us to get early wins and start with a high NET since we would have less opportunities for great wins that would move us forward. Now is the time.

 

[Sbucketball]

NET is public now: DI Men's Basketball Rankings - NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings | NCAA.com

140 on NET, compared to 106 on kenpom.

 

[Sbucketball]

Shockingly, Cornell has a NET of 55, compared to Syracuse at 140.

Currently a Q2 game for Syracuse.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Shockingly, Cornell has a NET of 55, compared to Syracuse at 140.

Currently a Q2 game for Syracuse.

Syracuse 12th in the ACC ahead of GT, Louisville, and ND. No real place to go but up.

 

[Sbucketball]

Syracuse 12th in the ACC ahead of GT, Louisville, and ND. No real place to go but up.

I don't know, GT beat a ranked Miss State and Duke. Might still drop a spot lol

 

[Sbucketball]

Following the Cornell game on 12/5/23:

Kenpom: Syracuse went from 105 to 100; Cornell dropped from 112 to 116

NET: Syracuse went from 140 to 112; Cornell dropped from 55 to 72

 

[Sbucketball]

Georgetown is 175 on Kenpom, and 220 on NET. Home loses to Holy Cross, Rutgers and TCU.

 

[OrangeYaGladi]

Following the Cornell game on 12/5/23:

Kenpom: Syracuse went from 105 to 100; Cornell dropped from 112 to 116

NET: Syracuse went from 140 to 112; Cornell dropped from 55 to 72

Weird times to beat Cornell in a nail biter and move up 28 spots in NET

 

[Lukeyloo]

Cornell has moved down to a Q3 game so Cuse has now currently only played Q1 (0-3) and Q3 (5-0) teams lol

 

[Sbucketball]

Georgetown is currently a Q3 game, borderline Q4 although I expect them to move up and not backwards by the time it's all over. Oregon is a Q2 but very well could be a Q1 game by the end of the year. Then we close out the non-con with a Q4 game against Niagara. Really would be helpful to win the rest of our non-con games and give us a fighting chance which boils down to how we fare in the league.

 

[orange79]

Cornell has moved down to a Q3 game so Cuse has now currently only played Q1 (0-3) and Q3 (5-0) teams lol

After yesterday's games, Cornell is still (albeit barely) a Q2 win with a 74 NET ranking.


lol

 

[Lukeyloo]

After yesterday's games, Cornell is still (albeit barely) a Q2 win with a 74 NET ranking.


lol

Yeah, since yesterday the Cornell game has been moved back to a Q2 win. Obviously there were external factors effecting their change in ranking since they haven't played a game since the game against Cuse. Very fluid rankings.

 

[jncuse]

By my quick calculations we will move up to somewhere between #90-#92 after this game (From #102). Would move our adjusted EM from about +6.5 to about +7.5 as exceeded our win expectation by about 10 points today.

 

[Sbucketball]

Jumped 20 spots in NET: 115 to 95. Moved to 91 on kenpom. Steady progress.

 

[Shenexon]

Do they have boat races in the city?

My sister used to go watch submarine races on Onondaga Lake. Does that count?