Net Points, etc. after Florida State | Syracusefan.com

Net Points, etc. after Florida State

SWC75

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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.

The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.

Of course, there are things players do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.

Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):

Trevor Cooney…… 23NP in 39 minutes season: 162NP in 581 minutes per 40: 11.2
Rakeem Christmas 17NP in 35 minutes season: 311NP in 507 minutes per 40: 24.5
Michael Gbinije….. 14NP in 40 minutes season: 147NP in 462 minutes per 40: 12.7
Kaleb Joseph……….. 10NP in 32 minutes season: 106NP in 498 minutes per 40: 8.5
Tyler Roberson……. 7NP in 32 minutes season: 108NP in 301 minutes per 40: 14.4
Ron Patterson…….. 6NP in 9 minutes season: 29NP in 176 minutes per 40: 6.6
Chris McCullough.. 3NP in 8 minutes season: 171NP in 450 minutes per 40: 15.2
Chinoso Obokoh….. -4NP in 5 minutes season: 14NP in 43 minutes per 40: 13.0

DNP-CD- none
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 190 minutes per 40: 12.8

INJURED
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 0NP in 0 minutes per 40: 0.0

SUSPENDED
None

Comment: Amazingly, that was the first time Trevor Cooney- one of what has become our “big three” – has led the team in net points this season. Chinoso Obokoh’s NP per 40 dropped from 18.9 to 13.0. Not only did he commit four fouls in 5 minutes but he finally missed a shot after making 4 field goals and both his free throws in his prior appearances. This may be the last time we’ll see Chris McCullough’s name in the top section, at least for a while. It will be sad to see him next to DaJuan. But it is what it is.

Rakeem Christmas has led in net points 8 times, Chris McCullough 4 times, Mike Gbinije and Tyler Roberson twice, Trevor Cooney and BJ Johnson once.

POSSESSION

Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 11 offensive and 28 defensive rebounds. They had 10 offensive and 25 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 11 of 36 times, (30.6%). When they missed, they got the ball 10 of 38 times (26.3%). We’ve won the rebounding battle in every game by this measure 12 times in 16 games. We’ve averaged getting 37% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 31% of theirs.

Of our 8 turnovers, 4 were their steals and 4 were our own miscues. Of their 13 turnovers, 7 were Syracuse steals and 6 were their fault. We have had fewer turnovers in 11 of 16 games with 1 even. Last year we had fewer turnovers in 29 of 34 games with 2 even. We are averaging 13 turnovers, 6 unforced, Our opposition is averaging 15/6.

If you add our 39 rebounds to their 13 turnovers, we had 52 “manufactured possessions”. They had 35 + 8= 43, so we were +9. We have won that battle 11 of 15 times. For the season we’ve averaged 54 to 46 (+8). With our incredibly poor shooting inside the arc, (see below), we won the game by getting to balls quicker and by making threes.


SHOOTING

It’s still what the game is all about. It’s what this game was all about, for sure. We were 12 for 40, (.300) inside the arc, 10 for 17, (.588) outside it and 16 for 22, (.727) from the line. They were 19 for 37 (.514), 2/16 (.125) and 13/21 (.619). We’ve led in two point field goal percentage in 11 of 16 games and in free throw percentage in 10 games. We’ve led in three point field goals percentage, believe it or not, in 10 games, (our opposition isn’t exactly filling it up, either). For the season we are .490/.314/.660. Our opposition is .425/.275/.694. One of my statistical conclusions form keeping track of these things over the years is that no statistic correlates to wings more than two point field goal percentage offense and defense. This team was certainly an exception to that “rule: we shot 30% inside the arc and they shot 51% but we won because of getting and keeping possession of the ball, (see above), and by shooting the lights out from the arc ((59%) while they couldn’t throw it in the oceans (12.5%). Be forewarned: that doesn’t happen very often. But we were only 14 for 43 inside the arc against Georgia Tech (33%) and won that one, too, because they were 12 for 40, (just like us last night). That won’t happen much, either. Our two point field goal percentage on offense has dropped from .514 to .490 in the two games- the 15th and 16th games of the season. That’s quite a drop. With Roberson replacing McCulllough and our now total lack of depth up front, we may have to become, of all things- a perimeter team, playing more like a Jay wright Villanova team. But our team three point percentage, which was .198 after our 0 for 14 game against Holy Cross, has risen to .314, (much better than our opposition’s .275) so maybe we can do it.

We had 18 points in the paint, 11 off turnovers, 12 “second chance” points, 12 fast break points and 8 from the bench. Our opposition had 26 points in the paint, 5 off turnovers, 10 “second chance” points, 2 fast break points and 21 from the bench. We also had 30 of Pat’s “first chance points” (Total points minus second chance points, fast break points and made free throws) to 32, so most of our margin was on those fast break points- we “ran” better in this game than we have against any good opponent we’ve played this year- and the related stat of points off turnovers.

We’ve led in PIP 9 times, POTO 11 times, FCP 11 times SCP 10 times, FBP 9 times with two ties and BP 8 times, with a tie. For the season we are averaging 32.5-23 PIP, 17-12 POTO, 30-26 FCP, 12.5-10 SCP,10-7 FBP and 12-13 BP. We aren’t likely to lead anybody in bench points from here on in.

We had 70 points, 18 in the paint, 30 from the arc and 16 from the line so we had 36 ”POP”, (points outside the paint: 70-18-16) and scored 6 points, (36 POP-30 from the arc), from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. It was a weapon we used to very good effect in this game. They had 57/26/6/13= 18 POP and 12 from the Twilight Zone. We’ve only led in POP 7 times but we’ve led in TZ points 10 times in 16 games. For the year we are averaging 23 POP and 9 TZ, our opposition 24/7. The game is so much easier when you don’t have to go to the basket for all your points.

18 of our 22 baskets were assisted (.818) and 12 of their 21 (.571). For the year we are assisting on 64.6% of our baskets to 63.1% for the opposition, who have had a higher percentage in 7 of 16 games. Assists tend to come more often from jump shots than lay-ups or dunks so the more assists you get, the more you are settling for jump shots to try to win the game which is often a bad strategy. I think it’s interesting that we have a high assist percentage with our “point guard by committee” situation. The team is at least sharing the ball well.

You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 57 FGA - 11 OREBs + 8TOs + (.475 x 22) = 64.450 possessions. They were 53 -10+ 13+ (.475 x 21) = 65.0175 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 64 possessions in which we scored 70 points, (1.094) and 65 possessions in which they scored 57 points, (0.877). We have, of course, led 12 of 16 games in offensive efficiency since the winning team always leads in that stat. For the year we are averaging 1.022 points per possession to 0.864 for the opposition.

We had 129 combined possessions in this game. We’ve averaged 132 this year. We averaged 122 last year, so the pace appears to be better than it was last season. But in the last four games we have been averaging 125so the pace may be slowing a bit.

Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game Trevor Cooney had 28 points with 2 assists for 30 “hockey” points and thus was our co-ODOG. Rakeem Christmas has been the O-Dog 6 times, Trevor Cooney 5 times, Michael Gbinije 3 times , BJ Johnson, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough once each.

Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game 20-10, 15-12, 19-21, 16-14. For the season, an average of 16-11, 18-13.5, 16-15, 18-17. We’ve won 42 of 64 quarters with, (amazingly) only one even. We’ve scored 15 or more in 42 quarters and held the opposition under that 38 times. We went from not reaching the 15 point mark in any quarter to reaching it in all four quarters.

I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted. Trevor Cooney opened the first half with a jumper at 18:48 and Rakeem Christmas did the same with a dunk in the second half at 18:22. The average time we’ve had to wait is 1 minute 29 seconds. Our longest wait has been 3 minutes 31 seconds in the first half vs. Cornell. Rakeem Christmas has sat us down 9 times, Michael Gbinije 5 times, Trevor Cooney, Kaleb Joseph and Chris McCullough 4 times and Tyler Roberson twice.

Another fun fact is the “Taco Bell MVP”: the guy who gets us to 75 points so people can free, (or is it discounted?) tacos at Taco Bell. There were no tacos after this game. (We were just 30 points short) The longest we’ve had to wait is 3:31). Rakeem Christmas, Trevor Cooney, BJ Johnson and Ron Patterson have each got us Tacos once. (I wonder how many point we have to score to get real meat in the tacos?)

FOULS

My theory about fouls is that the team that attempts the most two point shots will tend to get fouled the most. If the numbers are as predicted or close, there’s nothing to be read into them but if there’s a big disparity, it makes you wonder about how the game was called.

In this game, we attempted 40 two point shots to 37, scored 18 points in the paint to 26 and got fouled 18 times to 15, attempting 21 foul shots to 22. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.2 for us and 2.5 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.0 for us to 1.7 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.4 for them. The fouls are slightly out of whack in our favor but only slightly and the fact that they got to the line more when fouled than they did kind of makes up for it.

Last year we attempted 1368 two point shots to 993 for the opposition and scored 1028 PIP to 753. We committed 546 fouls to 598 and went to the line 720 to 607 times, suggesting that there should be a relationship between two points attempts and points in the point and how many fouls are called on the other team and how many times you got to the line. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled was 2.3 for us and 1.8 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled was 1.7 for us to 1.4 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team was 1.2 for us and 1.1 for them.

This year we have taken 674 two point shots and scored 520 points in the paint. We’ve been fouled 277 times and taken 314 free throws. Our opposition has taken 562 two point shots and scored 374 points in the paint. They’ve been fouled 237 times and taken only 252 free throws. The ratio of two point attempts to times fouled has been 2.4 for us and 2.4 for them. The ratio of points in the paint to times fouled has been 1.9 for us to 1.6 for them. The ratio of free throw attempts to fouls called on the other team has been 1.1 for us and 1.1 for them. So the officiating overall has been pretty even-handed.


“MY MAN”

A reporter once asked Casey Stengel how come he won so many games with the Yankees. He said “Because I never play a game without “my man”. The reporter wondered who his man was. Casey suggested “You could look it up.” The reporter did look it up and found that Yogi Berra had played in every game that season at some positon: catcher, left field, pinch-hitting, something. He was the player Stengel had the highest regard for and the most trust in, so he didn’t want to do without him.

Who is Jim Boeheim’s “man” this season? The only way to tell is to see who plays the most minutes each game. In this game, Michael Gbinije played all 40 minutes. Trevor Cooney has been the “Man” 9 times, Chris McCullough and Kaleb Joseph 4 times, Michael Gbinije three times and Rakeem Christmas twice. Cooney still leads the team in minutes played with 581, 74 more than any other player. Encouragingly, the guy in second place is Rakeem Christmas, who earlier had a problem staying in games because of excessive fouling.
 
I've said this to you before, but you need to tweak your formula. Huge disparity between bigs and guards. Cooney had a great game and his number for the 1 game isn't as good as Raks average. If you ranked the players for the year, it's all bigs then the guards. Even Chino is higher than the guards.
 
I've said this to you before, but you need to tweak your formula. Huge disparity between bigs and guards. Cooney had a great game and his number for the 1 game isn't as good as Raks average. If you ranked the players for the year, it's all bigs then the guards. Even Chino is higher than the guards.

Nice to know you're reading it. :cool: I'm open to suggestions on how to tweak it and invite anyone who wants to to post their own version of it.

Chino's is based on 38 minutes in garbage time vs. the dregs of the schedule.And it went down sharply last night. I've always admitted the system favors those who were closer to the basket on the court and in terms of height. So does basketball.

Rak's average game pr 40 minutes is 22 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 3 blocks. He's averaged shooting 8 for 14 from the floor, (he hasn't attempted a three pointer) and 5 for 7 from the foul line, (yeah, I know, that's 21 points: I'm rounding off).He's averaged 3 turnovers and 4 fouls.

Cooney last night scored 28 points, had 1 rebound, 2 assists, 3 steals and 0 blocks. he was 9 for 16 from the field, including 7 for 11 from the arc. He was 3 for 4 from the line with 1 turnover and 2 fouls.

If both had had those numbers last night, who would you have considered to be the most valuable player in that game? "Net Points" has Rak with 24 net points and Cooney with 23. I think that's about right.

Are there things not noted in the box score that also had a big influence on the game? Many of them. Cooney keeps a defender busy, battles any pressure, keeps the ball moving, has become the guy we want with the ball in tight situations. Christmas defends the middle, alters shots, also keeps the ball moving. I'm sure players look up to both of them even if they aren't vocal leaders. The intangibles tend to line up behind the most statistically productive players. In any case, I've never presented "net points" as anything but a statistic to look at, just like all the rest. You are free to draw your own conclusions.
 
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Nice to know you're reading it. :cool: I'm open to suggestions on how to tweak it and invite anyone who wants to to post their own version of it.

Chino's is based on 38 minutes in garbage time vs. the dregs of the schedule.And it went down sharply last night. I've always admitted the system favors those who were closer to the basket on the court and in terms of height. So does basketball.

Rak's average game pr 40 minutes is 22 points, 11 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 3 blocks. He's averaged shooting 8 for 14 from the floor, (he hasn't attempted a three pointer) and 5 for 7 from the foul line, (yeah, I know, that's 21 points: I'm rounding off).He's averaged 3 turnovers and 4 fouls.

Cooney last night scored 28 points, had 1 rebound, 2 assists, 3 steals and 0 blocks. he was 9 for 16 from the field, including 7 for 11 from the arc. He was 3 for 4 from the line with 1 turnover and 2 fouls.

If both had had those numbers last night, who would you have considered to be the most valuable player in that game? "Net Points" has Rak with 24 net points and Cooney with 23. I think that's about right.

Are there things not noted in the box score that also had a big influence on the game? Many of them. Cooney keeps a defender busy, battles any pressure, keeps the ball moving, has become the guy we want with the ball in tight situations. Christmas defends the middle, alters shots, also keeps the ball moving. I'm sure players look up to both of them even if they aren't vocal leaders. The intangibles tend to line up behind the most statistically productive players. In any case, I've never presented "net points" as anything but a statistic to look at, just like all the rest. You are free to draw your own conclusions.

I'd imagine this is something you would have historically. I think it's important to look at how our players perform relative to the rest of the conference. Rak for example is the number 1 or 2 player at his position depending on how you look at it. Cooney is outperforming his counterpart in North Carolina who was suppose to be ACC player of the year and they very much are in the same role.
 

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