SWC75
Bored Historian
- Joined
- Aug 26, 2011
- Messages
- 33,958
- Like
- 65,486
In past years I made a report called “Net Points, etc.” after each game. I’ve decided to try to find ways to cut back on the time I spent doing these posts. I’ve decided to do them once a month rather than after each game.
Again, the ‘net points’ (NP) formula is to add up all the positives in the box scores for each player: points (p), rebounds (r), assists (a), steals (s) and blocks (b) and subtract the negatives: missed field goals (mfg), missed free throws (mft), turnovers (to) and personal fouls (pf). In addition to NP, I provide offensive efficiency (OE) and floor game (FG). OE is p – (mfg + mft), the points you are producing minus the missed shots you are making trying to produce them. FG is NP – OE. What are you doing for – or to- your team other than the attempts to score points. These numbers are all per 40 minutes of play. I also offer the average minutes per the number of games the player has played. Only recruited players are listed. Walk-ons, even if they get scholarships, are not. Players are listed by average minutes played per game.
All numbers are from the ‘stats’ page and game box scores, (see ‘schedule’) on Cuse.com:
Men's Basketball - Syracuse University Athletics
Here are my numbers after November:
Net Points, etc. after November
And December:
Net Points, etc. - after December
JJ Starling 34.1m
14.9p 4.1r 2.3a 0.9s 0.2b = 22.2+
7.3mfg 0.7mft 2.0to 1.6pf = 11.6-
10.6NP 6.9OE, 3.7FG
JJ is scoring like we’d hoped now and he’s become comfortable in the shooting guard role. His’ scoring has increased from 13.7 to 14.9 while his missed shots have actually declined from 7.6 to 7.3. His assists have dropped from 3.4 to 2.3. His NP has actually declined slightly, from 10.8 to 10.6 but his offensive efficiency is up to 6.9 from 5.4. His floor game has declined from 5.4 to 3.7. It’s about scoring now, and making the defense come out to cover him and he’s doing it well.
Judah Mintz 33.0m
22.4p 4.0r 5.5a 2.6s 0.2b = 34.7+
8.8mfg 2.4mft 3.8to 2.8pf = 17.8-
16.9NP, 11.2OE, 5.2FG
Judah is a good FT shooter (77.3%) but misses more than some worse FT shooters because he shoots so many of them. His scoring has dipped from 24.6 to 22.4 but that’s still easily the best on the team. His assists have increased from 4.8 to 5.5. When he’s not getting the calls, he’s getting the ball to his teammates. His fouls have now declined from 3.3 to 2.8. His NP has declined from 18.0 to 16.9. His offensive efficiency is the same as Maliq Brown’s. Two very different players. Maliq doesn’t take shots unless he feels there’s a high likely hood of making them. Judah doesn’t take them unless there’s a high likelihood he can draw a foul and score at the line.
Chris Bell 23.8m
17.6p 3.1r 1.2a 1.0s 0.9b = 23.8+
9.9mfg 0.3mft 1.8to 2.6pf = 14.6-
9.2NP 7.2OE 2.0FG
Chris remains an inconsistent player who shows flashes of being a potential star. His numbers are basically unchanged, except he’s missing fewer shots, (10.8 to 9.9) and with that his NP has increased from 8.4 to 9.2. It’s a start.
Justin Taylor 24.1m
8.8p 8.0r 1.9a 1.2s 0.6b = 20.5+
6.6mfg 0.3mft 1.6to 2.1pf = 10.6-
9.9NP 1.9OE 8.0FG
His minutes have declined from 27.4 to 24.1 and will continue to do so until he becomes more productive. His scoring has dropped from 10.2 to 8.8 and his assists from 2.4 to 1.9 dropping him from 11.3 to 9.2NP. I’ve always felt that a starter should be averaging at least 10.0 and if he’s averaging that, we’ll need some other starters who were averaging a lot more. Red says he’s important because he draws defenders away from guys like Mintz and Copeland. Why would they guard him?
Maliq Brown 26.0m
14.5p 10.1r 1.9a 3.1s 1.2b = 30.8+
2.6mfg 0.7mft 1.6to 4.5pf = 9.4-
21.4NP 11.2OE 10.2FG
Maliq’s minutes have gone up from 22.8 to 26.0. His numbers haven’t changed a lot. He’s just playing more. They’ve actually gone down a bit. He still leads the team in NP. Surprisingly the biggest change is that his steals have dropped from 3.8 to 3.2. But that’s still a lot of steals.
Naheem McLeod 14.4m
10.7P 11.9r 0.2a 0.6s 5.3b = 28.7+
2.6mfg 1.4mft 1.2to 2.2pf = 7.4-
21.3NP 6.7OE 14.6FG
Naheem’s season is over. See you next year.
Quadir Copeland 21.3m
15.7p 9.9r 5.1a 2.6s 0.3b = 33.6+
6.2mfg 2.1mft 3.7to 3.6pf = 15.6-
18.0NP 7.4OE 10.6FG
Copeland’s becoming a major player for this team. His minutes have increased from 16.0 to 21.3. His NP has actually declined from 22.5 to 18.0 but the increased play allows him to have a bigger impact on the team. His scoring went down from 17.1 to 15.7, his rebounds from 11.6 to 9.9, his assists from 5.6 to 5.1. His missed shots have gone from 5.3 to 6.2. Maybe he’s just playing more minutes against the other team’s better players. He’s still a force of nature.
Benny Williams 14.9m
12.7p 8.9r 2.5a 2.3s 2.3b = 28.7+
7.1mfg 1.7mft 2.7to 4.4pf = 15.9-
12.8NP 3.9OE 8.9FG
Benny’s playing better and he’s playing more but as the team’s sole junior and a 4 star recruit when he came here, (I think he was ranked #32 in the country), he should be this team’s star and leader, aa three level scorer who can rebound and block shots as well as handle the ball. The season he’s having now should have been his freshmen year performance. As it is, his minutes since December are up from 14.9 to 16.6. His scoring is actually down from 15.5 to 12.7. His rebounds are up, 8.4 to 8.9, his assists down from 3.3 to 2.5 but his steals are up from 1.8 to 2.3. He’s been a big part of the times when our defense has overwhelmed the other team.
Kyle Cuffe 10.7m
11.7p 4.4r 1.6a 2.1s 0.9b = 20.7+
7.4mfg 0.9mft 2.3to 5.5pf = 16.1-
4.6NP 3.4OE 1.2FG
Cuffe has been a traditional reserve, an emergency guy when Mintz or Starling get in foul trouble. His playing time has gone down from 11.5 to 10.7 as the opposition has gotten more difficult and Red wants to stick with his best guys. His scoring has dropped from 13.2 to 11.7. His turnovers have decreased from 3.0 to 2.3. His fouls have dropped from 6.4 to 5.5 but that’s still too many for him to stay in the game for extended periods. He gives his all when he’s in there and is a good defensive player.
Peter Carey 5.0m
7.1p 8.9r 0.0a 0.0s 1.8b = 17.8+
7.1mfg 0.0mft 0.0to 10.7pf = 17.8-
0.0NP 0.0OE 0.0FG
He’s starting to get some playing time as Red is using a back-up by committee involving Williams, Hima and Carey to give Brown an occasional blow or keep him out of foul trouble. Peter plays hard but skinny. He may someday be a good player but now he’s just developing and learning. When you round each stat off, his negatives and his positives are exactly equal. His points are exactly equal to his missed field goals. That gives him perfect zeros across the bottom line. But that will change.
Mounir Hima 3.1m
5.7p 7.1r 1.4a 0.0s 4.3b = 18.4+
1.4mfg 0.0mft 0.0to 4.3pf = 5.7-
12.7NP 4.3OE 8.4FG
Hima should have made a good back-up center but he has some kind of injury that has limited his playing time: he’s now playing even less than Carey.
Not playing: Chance Westry (will be out the whole season?) and William Patterson, a sort of apprentice McLeod who will likely red-shirt. I wonder if he could make a decent back-up center with Carey not up to it and Hima still hurting.
Our most productive line-up, based on the positions the players have been used in, (and limited to guys who have averaged 10 minutes or more per game.) is:
C- Maliq Brown 21.4NP
PF- Benny Williams 12.8NP
SF- Quadir Copeland 18.0NP
SG – JJ Starling 10.6NP
PG- Judah Mintz 16.9NP
TEAM
Some old favorites:
Unsettled Situations
[Second Chance Points+ Points off Turnovers] divided by [Offensive Rebounds + Opposition Turnovers)
We had 535 points in 521 unsettled situations = 1.027 points/situation
They had 534 points in 504 unsettled situations = 1.060 points/situation
The January opposition outscored us 177-203 in unsettled situations, which surprises me because we’ve got such creative passers and athletic players. We should have the advantage here, but our intensity varies too much.
Manufactured Possessions
(One teams rebounds + the other team’s turnovers)
We had 770 + 312 = 1,082
They had 810 + 256 = 1,066
We are + in possessions but our edge has dropped from +29 to +16. Neither is much of a margin but if we can break even, we’ll be in the games.
Fast Break Percentage
(FBP/(defensive rebounds + blocks + steals)
We scored 274 FBP in 851 opportunities (32.2%)
They scored 250 FBP in 766 opportunities (32.6%)
In January we had just 79 fast break points to 114. Part of that is offensive failures leading to opposition fast breaks. Part of it is the failure to get back. Part of that lack of rebounding from the forwards, forcing the guards to go after rebounds.
First Chance Points
(First Chance Points, which is total points - second chance points – fast break points – free throws made)
We had 1,583 – 177 – 274 – 297 = 835 FCP
They had 1,520 - 249 – 250 – 229 = 792 FCP
We are doing better in our initial sets than I would have expected with our lack of jump shooting. We’re getting hurt by a lack of second chance points. (See unsettled situations.) We seem to give up a lot of threes after offensive rebounds.
Assists
(The percentage of a team’s baskets that were assisted)
We assisted 290 of our 571 field goals = 50.8%
They assisted 287 of their 568 field goals = 50.5%
Assists are given for jump shots more than anything else but we have such a good passing teams and are trying to run every time we can, so we should get quite a few of them. Our opponents are worse than we are from three point range, (32.7%-31.1%), so our perceived deficit in that department is actually an advantage.
Team Offensive Possession Efficiency
If we just use FGA + (47.5% FTA) and thus count an offensive rebound as an additional possession and a turnover as a lost possession:
We scored 1,583 points in 1,482 possessions = 1.068 points/ possession
They scored 1,520 points in 1,472 possessions = 1.034 points/possession
The difference may be all those Judah free throws. We’ve attempted 415 to the opposition’s 332.
Team Shooting Efficiency
We scored 1,583 on 844 two-point attempts, 441 three-point attempts and 415 free throw attempts = 1,583 of a possible 3,426 points = 46.2% of possible points scored.
They scored 1,520 on 816 two-point attempts, 498 three-point attempts and 332 free throw attempts = 1,520 of a possible 3,458 points = 44.0% of possible points scored.
Driving to the basket and running increases your efficiency, even if they are two-point shots.
Fouls
(Most fouls are called on two point shot attempts.)
We attempted 844 two-point shots and were fouled 338 times = 2.50
They attempted 816 two-point shots and were fouled 324 times = 2.52
If there is a bias against us, it doesn’t show up in the numbers.
Again, the ‘net points’ (NP) formula is to add up all the positives in the box scores for each player: points (p), rebounds (r), assists (a), steals (s) and blocks (b) and subtract the negatives: missed field goals (mfg), missed free throws (mft), turnovers (to) and personal fouls (pf). In addition to NP, I provide offensive efficiency (OE) and floor game (FG). OE is p – (mfg + mft), the points you are producing minus the missed shots you are making trying to produce them. FG is NP – OE. What are you doing for – or to- your team other than the attempts to score points. These numbers are all per 40 minutes of play. I also offer the average minutes per the number of games the player has played. Only recruited players are listed. Walk-ons, even if they get scholarships, are not. Players are listed by average minutes played per game.
All numbers are from the ‘stats’ page and game box scores, (see ‘schedule’) on Cuse.com:
Men's Basketball - Syracuse University Athletics
Here are my numbers after November:
Net Points, etc. after November
And December:
Net Points, etc. - after December
JJ Starling 34.1m
14.9p 4.1r 2.3a 0.9s 0.2b = 22.2+
7.3mfg 0.7mft 2.0to 1.6pf = 11.6-
10.6NP 6.9OE, 3.7FG
JJ is scoring like we’d hoped now and he’s become comfortable in the shooting guard role. His’ scoring has increased from 13.7 to 14.9 while his missed shots have actually declined from 7.6 to 7.3. His assists have dropped from 3.4 to 2.3. His NP has actually declined slightly, from 10.8 to 10.6 but his offensive efficiency is up to 6.9 from 5.4. His floor game has declined from 5.4 to 3.7. It’s about scoring now, and making the defense come out to cover him and he’s doing it well.
Judah Mintz 33.0m
22.4p 4.0r 5.5a 2.6s 0.2b = 34.7+
8.8mfg 2.4mft 3.8to 2.8pf = 17.8-
16.9NP, 11.2OE, 5.2FG
Judah is a good FT shooter (77.3%) but misses more than some worse FT shooters because he shoots so many of them. His scoring has dipped from 24.6 to 22.4 but that’s still easily the best on the team. His assists have increased from 4.8 to 5.5. When he’s not getting the calls, he’s getting the ball to his teammates. His fouls have now declined from 3.3 to 2.8. His NP has declined from 18.0 to 16.9. His offensive efficiency is the same as Maliq Brown’s. Two very different players. Maliq doesn’t take shots unless he feels there’s a high likely hood of making them. Judah doesn’t take them unless there’s a high likelihood he can draw a foul and score at the line.
Chris Bell 23.8m
17.6p 3.1r 1.2a 1.0s 0.9b = 23.8+
9.9mfg 0.3mft 1.8to 2.6pf = 14.6-
9.2NP 7.2OE 2.0FG
Chris remains an inconsistent player who shows flashes of being a potential star. His numbers are basically unchanged, except he’s missing fewer shots, (10.8 to 9.9) and with that his NP has increased from 8.4 to 9.2. It’s a start.
Justin Taylor 24.1m
8.8p 8.0r 1.9a 1.2s 0.6b = 20.5+
6.6mfg 0.3mft 1.6to 2.1pf = 10.6-
9.9NP 1.9OE 8.0FG
His minutes have declined from 27.4 to 24.1 and will continue to do so until he becomes more productive. His scoring has dropped from 10.2 to 8.8 and his assists from 2.4 to 1.9 dropping him from 11.3 to 9.2NP. I’ve always felt that a starter should be averaging at least 10.0 and if he’s averaging that, we’ll need some other starters who were averaging a lot more. Red says he’s important because he draws defenders away from guys like Mintz and Copeland. Why would they guard him?
Maliq Brown 26.0m
14.5p 10.1r 1.9a 3.1s 1.2b = 30.8+
2.6mfg 0.7mft 1.6to 4.5pf = 9.4-
21.4NP 11.2OE 10.2FG
Maliq’s minutes have gone up from 22.8 to 26.0. His numbers haven’t changed a lot. He’s just playing more. They’ve actually gone down a bit. He still leads the team in NP. Surprisingly the biggest change is that his steals have dropped from 3.8 to 3.2. But that’s still a lot of steals.
Naheem McLeod 14.4m
10.7P 11.9r 0.2a 0.6s 5.3b = 28.7+
2.6mfg 1.4mft 1.2to 2.2pf = 7.4-
21.3NP 6.7OE 14.6FG
Naheem’s season is over. See you next year.
Quadir Copeland 21.3m
15.7p 9.9r 5.1a 2.6s 0.3b = 33.6+
6.2mfg 2.1mft 3.7to 3.6pf = 15.6-
18.0NP 7.4OE 10.6FG
Copeland’s becoming a major player for this team. His minutes have increased from 16.0 to 21.3. His NP has actually declined from 22.5 to 18.0 but the increased play allows him to have a bigger impact on the team. His scoring went down from 17.1 to 15.7, his rebounds from 11.6 to 9.9, his assists from 5.6 to 5.1. His missed shots have gone from 5.3 to 6.2. Maybe he’s just playing more minutes against the other team’s better players. He’s still a force of nature.
Benny Williams 14.9m
12.7p 8.9r 2.5a 2.3s 2.3b = 28.7+
7.1mfg 1.7mft 2.7to 4.4pf = 15.9-
12.8NP 3.9OE 8.9FG
Benny’s playing better and he’s playing more but as the team’s sole junior and a 4 star recruit when he came here, (I think he was ranked #32 in the country), he should be this team’s star and leader, aa three level scorer who can rebound and block shots as well as handle the ball. The season he’s having now should have been his freshmen year performance. As it is, his minutes since December are up from 14.9 to 16.6. His scoring is actually down from 15.5 to 12.7. His rebounds are up, 8.4 to 8.9, his assists down from 3.3 to 2.5 but his steals are up from 1.8 to 2.3. He’s been a big part of the times when our defense has overwhelmed the other team.
Kyle Cuffe 10.7m
11.7p 4.4r 1.6a 2.1s 0.9b = 20.7+
7.4mfg 0.9mft 2.3to 5.5pf = 16.1-
4.6NP 3.4OE 1.2FG
Cuffe has been a traditional reserve, an emergency guy when Mintz or Starling get in foul trouble. His playing time has gone down from 11.5 to 10.7 as the opposition has gotten more difficult and Red wants to stick with his best guys. His scoring has dropped from 13.2 to 11.7. His turnovers have decreased from 3.0 to 2.3. His fouls have dropped from 6.4 to 5.5 but that’s still too many for him to stay in the game for extended periods. He gives his all when he’s in there and is a good defensive player.
Peter Carey 5.0m
7.1p 8.9r 0.0a 0.0s 1.8b = 17.8+
7.1mfg 0.0mft 0.0to 10.7pf = 17.8-
0.0NP 0.0OE 0.0FG
He’s starting to get some playing time as Red is using a back-up by committee involving Williams, Hima and Carey to give Brown an occasional blow or keep him out of foul trouble. Peter plays hard but skinny. He may someday be a good player but now he’s just developing and learning. When you round each stat off, his negatives and his positives are exactly equal. His points are exactly equal to his missed field goals. That gives him perfect zeros across the bottom line. But that will change.
Mounir Hima 3.1m
5.7p 7.1r 1.4a 0.0s 4.3b = 18.4+
1.4mfg 0.0mft 0.0to 4.3pf = 5.7-
12.7NP 4.3OE 8.4FG
Hima should have made a good back-up center but he has some kind of injury that has limited his playing time: he’s now playing even less than Carey.
Not playing: Chance Westry (will be out the whole season?) and William Patterson, a sort of apprentice McLeod who will likely red-shirt. I wonder if he could make a decent back-up center with Carey not up to it and Hima still hurting.
Our most productive line-up, based on the positions the players have been used in, (and limited to guys who have averaged 10 minutes or more per game.) is:
C- Maliq Brown 21.4NP
PF- Benny Williams 12.8NP
SF- Quadir Copeland 18.0NP
SG – JJ Starling 10.6NP
PG- Judah Mintz 16.9NP
TEAM
Some old favorites:
Unsettled Situations
[Second Chance Points+ Points off Turnovers] divided by [Offensive Rebounds + Opposition Turnovers)
We had 535 points in 521 unsettled situations = 1.027 points/situation
They had 534 points in 504 unsettled situations = 1.060 points/situation
The January opposition outscored us 177-203 in unsettled situations, which surprises me because we’ve got such creative passers and athletic players. We should have the advantage here, but our intensity varies too much.
Manufactured Possessions
(One teams rebounds + the other team’s turnovers)
We had 770 + 312 = 1,082
They had 810 + 256 = 1,066
We are + in possessions but our edge has dropped from +29 to +16. Neither is much of a margin but if we can break even, we’ll be in the games.
Fast Break Percentage
(FBP/(defensive rebounds + blocks + steals)
We scored 274 FBP in 851 opportunities (32.2%)
They scored 250 FBP in 766 opportunities (32.6%)
In January we had just 79 fast break points to 114. Part of that is offensive failures leading to opposition fast breaks. Part of it is the failure to get back. Part of that lack of rebounding from the forwards, forcing the guards to go after rebounds.
First Chance Points
(First Chance Points, which is total points - second chance points – fast break points – free throws made)
We had 1,583 – 177 – 274 – 297 = 835 FCP
They had 1,520 - 249 – 250 – 229 = 792 FCP
We are doing better in our initial sets than I would have expected with our lack of jump shooting. We’re getting hurt by a lack of second chance points. (See unsettled situations.) We seem to give up a lot of threes after offensive rebounds.
Assists
(The percentage of a team’s baskets that were assisted)
We assisted 290 of our 571 field goals = 50.8%
They assisted 287 of their 568 field goals = 50.5%
Assists are given for jump shots more than anything else but we have such a good passing teams and are trying to run every time we can, so we should get quite a few of them. Our opponents are worse than we are from three point range, (32.7%-31.1%), so our perceived deficit in that department is actually an advantage.
Team Offensive Possession Efficiency
If we just use FGA + (47.5% FTA) and thus count an offensive rebound as an additional possession and a turnover as a lost possession:
We scored 1,583 points in 1,482 possessions = 1.068 points/ possession
They scored 1,520 points in 1,472 possessions = 1.034 points/possession
The difference may be all those Judah free throws. We’ve attempted 415 to the opposition’s 332.
Team Shooting Efficiency
We scored 1,583 on 844 two-point attempts, 441 three-point attempts and 415 free throw attempts = 1,583 of a possible 3,426 points = 46.2% of possible points scored.
They scored 1,520 on 816 two-point attempts, 498 three-point attempts and 332 free throw attempts = 1,520 of a possible 3,458 points = 44.0% of possible points scored.
Driving to the basket and running increases your efficiency, even if they are two-point shots.
Fouls
(Most fouls are called on two point shot attempts.)
We attempted 844 two-point shots and were fouled 338 times = 2.50
They attempted 816 two-point shots and were fouled 324 times = 2.52
If there is a bias against us, it doesn’t show up in the numbers.
