SWC75
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I’ll continue doing a statistical analysis of games this year with some of the off-beat numbers I like to look at. I’ll post them after each game, probably the next day.
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Jerami Grant……….. 28NP in 40 minutes season: 267NP in 621 minutes per 40: 17.2
C. J. Fair………………. 23NP in 45 minutes season: 269NP in 780 minutes per 40: 13.8
Rakeem Christmas 22NP in 34 minutes season: 161NP in 450 minutes per 40: 14.3
Tyler Ennis………….. 19NP in 40 minutes season: 297NP in 722 minutes per 40: 16.5
Trevor Cooney…… 12NP in 38 minutes season: 234NP in 657 minutes per 40: 14.2
Michael Gbinije …. 3NP in 12 minutes season: 81NP in 266 minutes per 40: 12.2
Tyler Roberson……. 1NP in 5 minutes season: 18NP in 109 minutes per 40: 6.6
Baye Moussa Keita -1NP in 11 minutes season: 77NP in 345 minutes per 40: 8.9
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 13NP in 49 minutes per 40: 10.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 50 minutes per 40: 0.8
Comment: This was the first game all year where our forwards both looked like All-Americans. I had thought they would be the heart and soul of this team but they both have struggled, despite being productive. But they will live in Duke’s nightmares.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 9 times, no mean feat for a guard, (but also a comment on what we’ve got up front, where our leaders would normally come from). Trevor Cooney has led 4 times and CJ Fair and Jerami Grant have led 3 times. Rakeem Christmas have led twice and DaJuan Coleman and now Baye Keita once each.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 12 offensive and 26 defensive rebounds. They had 18 offensive and 15 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 12 of 27 times, (44.4%). When they missed, they got the ball 18 of 44 times (40.9%). Accurater was alarmed by Duke’s offensive rebounding at halftime. But Duke got so many offensive rebounds because they took 18 more shots than we did and missed the same number more than we did. We were getting fouled when we missed and went to the line more, (see below). They had 22 second chance points to our 11 but I wonder if free throws shouldn’t count as, or at least with second chance points.
We’ve averaged getting 40.8% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.7% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 16 times in 21 games
Of our 8 turnovers, 5 were their steals and 3 were our own miscues. Of their 8 turnovers, 4 were Syracuse steals and 4 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (197-301) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (105-115). We have had single digit turnovers in 7 of 8 ACC games and had only 10 in the other one. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 38 rebounds to their 8 turnovers, we had 46 “manufactured possessions”. They had 33 + 8 = 41, so we were +5. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except Pittsburgh and the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +10.9. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s the main reason we are 21-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. And it won this game for us- but not on outside jump shots. We were 28 for 50, (.560) inside the arc, 3 for 4, (.750), outside it and 26 for 32 (.813) from the line. They were 16/36, (.444), 15/36 (.417) and 12/17 (.706). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .502/.349/.699, the opposition .465/.336/.659. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 40 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .502-.465 = +37.
We had 67 points, 28 in the paint, 9 from the arc and 22 from the line so we scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 57-26-9-18= 4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 17 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 13 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
17 of our 31 baskets were assisted (.548) and 20 of their 31 (.645). For the year we are assisting on 50.9% of our baskets to 64.4% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 18 of 21 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 54 FGA -12 OREBs + 8 TOs + (.475 x 32) = 65.2 possessions. They were 72 –18 + 8 + (.475 x 17) = 70.075 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 67 possessions in which we scored 91 points, (1.358) and 68 possessions in which they scored 89 points, (1.309). For the year we are 1.167 vs. 0.958. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 21-0. We’ve averaged 124 total possessions per game this year. Interestingly, we had only 6 more possessions in this overtime game than we had in regulation vs. Wake Forest. It wasn’t a faster-paced game. It was a game featuring terrific offense, (and maybe not so great defense). It was the most efficient offensive game and the least efficient defensive game we’ve had all season, even more so than the zowie ones in Maui.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 14-13, 24-22, 20-21, 20-22, 13-11. The average for the season is: 17-13, 19-15, 17-15, 19-15. We’ve won 55 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 23 and tied 6. We’ve scored at least 15 in 64 of 84 quarters and held the opposition under that 44 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game CJ Fair had 28 points and 1 assist for 29 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Tyler Ennis has led 10 times and CJ Fair has done it 8 times, Trevor Cooney 4 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Rakeem Christmas sat us down in the first half with a lay-up at 1:26 and CJ Fair did it with a lay-up 1:21 seconds into the second half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 12 times, Tyler Ennis 9 times, Rakeem Christmas and Trevor Cooney 6 times, DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 3 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) and 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half)
The first thing I’ll look at is “NET POINTS”. The idea is that each statistic in the box score is arguably worth a point, (that is, somewhere between 0.5 and 1.5 points). A point is a point. Teams score an average of a point per possession so anything that gets you possession is a point. A missed shot will more often than not wind up in the possession of the other team. Most baskets are for two points so if the passer who set up the shot is given half credit, that’s worth a point. One half of the blocked shots will likely have gone in and they are almost always two pointers, so that’s a point. If you add up the “positives”, (points, + rebounds + assists + steals + blocks) and subtract the “negatives”, (missed field goals, missed free throws, turnovers and fouls), you have a number that summarizes a player’s statistical contributions to a game. Then, by averaging the net points per 40 minutes of play, you factor out differences in playing time and have a look at the player’s rate of production. Both are important. The game is won based on what you actually did, not the rate at which you did it. But the rate is a better measure of the skills you can bring to the game.
Of course, there are things player do both on and off the court that contribute to victory. Leadership, hard work, keeping the team loose, scrambling for loose balls, (that could be a statistic: when neither team is in control of the ball, who winds up with it?), sneaker-sneaker defense, keeping the ball moving on offense, etc. etc. My experience is that with rare exceptions, the players who are the most statistically productive are the ones who grade highest in the things not measured by statistics, as well.
Here are the NET POINTS of our scholarship player in the most recent game and their averages per 40 minutes of play for the season, (exhibitions games not included):
Jerami Grant……….. 28NP in 40 minutes season: 267NP in 621 minutes per 40: 17.2
C. J. Fair………………. 23NP in 45 minutes season: 269NP in 780 minutes per 40: 13.8
Rakeem Christmas 22NP in 34 minutes season: 161NP in 450 minutes per 40: 14.3
Tyler Ennis………….. 19NP in 40 minutes season: 297NP in 722 minutes per 40: 16.5
Trevor Cooney…… 12NP in 38 minutes season: 234NP in 657 minutes per 40: 14.2
Michael Gbinije …. 3NP in 12 minutes season: 81NP in 266 minutes per 40: 12.2
Tyler Roberson……. 1NP in 5 minutes season: 18NP in 109 minutes per 40: 6.6
Baye Moussa Keita -1NP in 11 minutes season: 77NP in 345 minutes per 40: 8.9
DaJuan Coleman…. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 61NP in 169 minutes per 40: 14.4
Ron Patterson…….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 13NP in 49 minutes per 40: 10.6
B. J. Johnson……….. 0NP in 0 minutes season: 1NP in 50 minutes per 40: 0.8
Comment: This was the first game all year where our forwards both looked like All-Americans. I had thought they would be the heart and soul of this team but they both have struggled, despite being productive. But they will live in Duke’s nightmares.
Tyler Ennis has led in net points 9 times, no mean feat for a guard, (but also a comment on what we’ve got up front, where our leaders would normally come from). Trevor Cooney has led 4 times and CJ Fair and Jerami Grant have led 3 times. Rakeem Christmas have led twice and DaJuan Coleman and now Baye Keita once each.
Possession:
Before you can score you’ve got to get the rock. Syracuse had 12 offensive and 26 defensive rebounds. They had 18 offensive and 15 defensive rebounds. When we missed we got the ball 12 of 27 times, (44.4%). When they missed, they got the ball 18 of 44 times (40.9%). Accurater was alarmed by Duke’s offensive rebounding at halftime. But Duke got so many offensive rebounds because they took 18 more shots than we did and missed the same number more than we did. We were getting fouled when we missed and went to the line more, (see below). They had 22 second chance points to our 11 but I wonder if free throws shouldn’t count as, or at least with second chance points.
We’ve averaged getting 40.8% of our misses and our opposition has gotten 30.7% of theirs. We have won the rebounding battle by this measure 16 times in 21 games
Of our 8 turnovers, 5 were their steals and 3 were our own miscues. Of their 8 turnovers, 4 were Syracuse steals and 4 were their fault. Syracuse has had fewer turnovers in all but one game, (197-301) and are also ahead in unforced errors, (105-115). We have had single digit turnovers in 7 of 8 ACC games and had only 10 in the other one. That’s very impressive for a team with a young backcourt.
If you add our 38 rebounds to their 8 turnovers, we had 46 “manufactured possessions”. They had 33 + 8 = 41, so we were +5. We’ve won that battle every time this season, except Pittsburgh and the St. John’s game, with an average margin of +10.9. We’ve won by double figures 13 times. It’s the main reason we are 21-0.
Shooting:
It’s still what the game is all about. And it won this game for us- but not on outside jump shots. We were 28 for 50, (.560) inside the arc, 3 for 4, (.750), outside it and 26 for 32 (.813) from the line. They were 16/36, (.444), 15/36 (.417) and 12/17 (.706). On the season, Syracuse is shooting .502/.349/.699, the opposition .465/.336/.659. We complain about our free throw shooting but we are now out-shooting the opposition on the year by 40 points. Here are our two point percentages for every year of this decade: 2009-10: .571-.462 (+109), 2010-11: .562-.444 (+118), 2011-12: .519-.425 (+94), 2012-13: .485-.425 (+60). So far this year: .502-.465 = +37.
We had 67 points, 28 in the paint, 9 from the arc and 22 from the line so we scored 8 points from what I’ll call the “Twilight Zone”: that area between the paint and the arc that is the land of the pull-up jump shot, a lost art but a great weapon. They had 57-26-9-18= 4 points in the Twilight Zone. Overall, we had 17 POP: Points Outside the Paint to 13 for them. So far this year Syracuse is averaging 24 POP, 8 from the TZ, the opposition 26/5.
17 of our 31 baskets were assisted (.548) and 20 of their 31 (.645). For the year we are assisting on 50.9% of our baskets to 64.4% for the opposition, who have had more assists or a higher percentage in 18 of 21 games, all of which we’ve won.
You compute “Offensive Efficiency” by taking field goal attempts – offensive rebounds + turnovers plus 47.5% of free throws attempted and dividing that into the number of points. We were 54 FGA -12 OREBs + 8 TOs + (.475 x 32) = 65.2 possessions. They were 72 –18 + 8 + (.475 x 17) = 70.075 possessions. Since possessions shouldn’t be more than one off, I’ll count that as 67 possessions in which we scored 91 points, (1.358) and 68 possessions in which they scored 89 points, (1.309). For the year we are 1.167 vs. 0.958. We’ve been more efficient than our opposition in every game so far, which is also why we are 21-0. We’ve averaged 124 total possessions per game this year. Interestingly, we had only 6 more possessions in this overtime game than we had in regulation vs. Wake Forest. It wasn’t a faster-paced game. It was a game featuring terrific offense, (and maybe not so great defense). It was the most efficient offensive game and the least efficient defensive game we’ve had all season, even more so than the zowie ones in Maui.
Every other level of basketball plays quarters. To check the consistency of our performance, I look at what the score was at the 10 minute mark of each half to see what the quarterly scores would be. At a minimum, I think we want to score at least 15 points in each quarter and try to hold the opposition to less than that. The quarterly breakdown for this game: 14-13, 24-22, 20-21, 20-22, 13-11. The average for the season is: 17-13, 19-15, 17-15, 19-15. We’ve won 55 quarters, (and one overtime), lost 23 and tied 6. We’ve scored at least 15 in 64 of 84 quarters and held the opposition under that 44 times.
Hubert Davis once told us to “Get an offensive dude”. I decided to name an “Offensive Dude Of the Game, or an O-Dog, and use the hockey concept of points + assists. In this game CJ Fair had 28 points and 1 assist for 29 “hockey points” to lead the team. So far Tyler Ennis has led 10 times and CJ Fair has done it 8 times, Trevor Cooney 4 times and Jerami Grant has done it twice, including ties.
I also like to keep track who sits us down in each half. Besides being fun it gives an indication of who Coach B likes to design plays for since opening possessions are more likely to be scripted than those later in the game, (although sometimes we don’t score until later in the game). Rakeem Christmas sat us down in the first half with a lay-up at 1:26 and CJ Fair did it with a lay-up 1:21 seconds into the second half. CJ Fair has now sat us down 12 times, Tyler Ennis 9 times, Rakeem Christmas and Trevor Cooney 6 times, DaJuan Coleman 5 times and Jerami Grant 3 times, (remember he didn’t start until Coleman got hurt).
Longest: 8:50, second half vs. Miami. We were 4:51 vs. St. Francis, (second half), 3:12 vs. Villanova (first half) and 2:29 vs. Eastern Michigan (second half), 2:13 vs. Pittsburgh (first half), 2:05 vs. North Carolina (second half), 1:45 vs. Boston College (first half), 1:38 vs. Pittsburgh (second half), 1:26 vs. Duke (first half), 1:25 vs. Wake Forest, (1st half), 1:21 vs. Duke (second half) and 1:18 vs. North Carolina (first half)
