Next Two Games Will Define This Season

[PhatOrange]

I'm typically skeptical of Strength of Schedule ratings. However, at the moment our SoS is considered easy-to-average by every ranking system I can find.

ESPN FPI: 88
Sagarin: 63
Colley: 60
Massey: 67

The idea that somehow our schedule went from "perceived easy" to "very difficult" just isn't true. At worst it's average. But in reality it's still easier than any schedule this program has played in years and years.

Just looking at Sagarin our 6-3 record is decent compared to the P4 schools around us. Not sure what it proves but maybe winning is not easy?

North Carolina 5 4
Washington 5 5
Kentucky 3 6
UCLA 4 5
North Dakota State 9 1
Illinois 6 3
Army West Point 9 0
Vanderbilt 6 4
James Madison 7 2
Louisiana-Lafayette 8 1
Syracuse 6 3
Oklahoma State 3 7
Rutgers 5 4
Houston 4 5
Montana State 10 0
Boston College 5 4
Maryland 4 5
South Dakota 7 2
Virginia 5 4
Memphis 8 2
Texas State 5 4
NC State 5 5

 

[SU91]

This Cal game has all the hallmarks of a game where we throw up all over ourselves. As fans we go in hoping for a hard fought game and the best case scenario of a win, but the team inevitably looks lethargic and outmatched and we get thumped.

It would be huge to break this paradigm. A win here would bode well for Fran.

 

[Scooch]

Just looking at Sagarin our 6-3 record is decent compared to the P4 schools around us. Not sure what it proves but maybe winning is not easy?

North Carolina 5 4
Washington 5 5
Kentucky 3 6
UCLA 4 5
North Dakota State 9 1
Illinois 6 3
Army West Point 9 0
Vanderbilt 6 4
James Madison 7 2
Louisiana-Lafayette 8 1
Syracuse 6 3
Oklahoma State 3 7
Rutgers 5 4
Houston 4 5
Montana State 10 0
Boston College 5 4
Maryland 4 5
South Dakota 7 2
Virginia 5 4
Memphis 8 2
Texas State 5 4
NC State 5 5

Agreed, winning ain't easy. I was just countering the idea that somehow our schedule transformed into a gauntlet. It hasn't.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

This Cal game has all the hallmarks of a game where we throw up all over ourselves. As fans we go in hoping for a hard fought game and the best case scenario of a win, but the team inevitably looks lethargic and outmatched and we get thumped.

It would be huge to break this paradigm. A win here would bode well for Fran.

Those types of games only happen when we are on ABC or ESPN.

That being said this is the least confident I have been going into a game all season. The O has seemed a bit off the last 3 games. The D has been a mess the last 2. And Cal is on a hot streak.

Cal has the best TO margin in the ACC. They have the best passing game we have faced thus far. Really we haven't even faced a decent one yet. They haven't run the ball well, which could help us. They have the 2nd best run D in the ACC, and their pass D is solid. They are 3rd in the ACC in Sacks/G. They do get a lot of penalties per game, last in the ACC by a good amount. BTW we are 15th, what happened to DART?

Seems like a bad matchup across the board. On top of having to go cross country to play a road game.

I think Cal will win comfortably in the 9-16 points range.

 

[upperdeck]

the whole SEC has turned into 3-4 loss teams as well.

We have less talent than that so to expect more is foolish

Win the Stan game and the season would have been a great success as we start to see all the holes we still have to fill

by the end of the season there will be 10 or less teams with less than 3 losses

 

[Chip]

Those types of games only happen when we are on ABC or ESPN.

That being said this is the least confident I have been going into a game all season. The O has seemed a bit off the last 3 games. The D has been a mess the last 2. And Cal is on a hot streak.

Cal has the best TO margin in the ACC. They have the best passing game we have faced thus far. Really we haven't even faced a decent one yet. They haven't run the ball well, which could help us. They have the 2nd best run D in the ACC, and their pass D is solid. They are 3rd in the ACC in Sacks/G. They do get a lot of penalties per game, last in the ACC by a good amount. BTW we are 15th, what happened to DART?

Seems like a bad matchup across the board. On top of having to go cross country to play a road game.

I think Cal will win comfortably in the 9-16 points range.

It's a terrible matchup, for all the reasons you stated. So we'll probably win.

(or not).

 

[upperdeck]

Those types of games only happen when we are on ABC or ESPN.

That being said this is the least confident I have been going into a game all season. The O has seemed a bit off the last 3 games. The D has been a mess the last 2. And Cal is on a hot streak.

Cal has the best TO margin in the ACC. They have the best passing game we have faced thus far. Really we haven't even faced a decent one yet. They haven't run the ball well, which could help us. They have the 2nd best run D in the ACC, and their pass D is solid. They are 3rd in the ACC in Sacks/G. They do get a lot of penalties per game, last in the ACC by a good amount. BTW we are 15th, what happened to DART?

Seems like a bad matchup across the board. On top of having to go cross country to play a road game.

I think Cal will win comfortably in the 9-16 points range.

You have to think at some pt Cal has that blip game where turnovers dont just go their way,

The good thing is Cal has a DB who gets most of the INTS. We don't have a #1 that he will be covering.

 

[P Vasiloff]

Syracuse needs to play that “Complete Game” I have heard them talk about playing all year long but as of now have not. If they come out slow and flat against Cal this will get ugly quickly. Let’s hope they play that game and they are 2-1 in November with two to go. Let’s Go Orange!!!!!!

 

[orangecuse]

the whole SEC has turned into 3-4 loss teams as well.

We have less talent than that so to expect more is foolish

Win the Stan game and the season would have been a great success as we start to see all the holes we still have to fill

by the end of the season there will be 10 or less teams with less than 3 losses

IDK, perhaps what is "foolish" is making a comparison with the quality of teams in the SEC vs. the quality of those in the ACC? And, gauging number of losses there, to what the expectation should be here (for SU) in the relatively pedestrian ACC. All losses are certainly not created equally.

This is somewhat on a parallel in what Hoo's had mentioned where things are headed, if my interpretation of his related posts are correct in those expansion type threads, etc. Traditional one or two loss SEC power type teams (B1G as well) having to get used to more L's simply as the cost of doing business in an inclusive system predominately consisting of haves vs. have nots.

 

[PhatOrange]

IDK, perhaps what is "foolish" is making a comparison with the quality of teams in the SEC vs. the quality of those in the ACC? And, gauging number of losses there, to what the expectation should be here (for SU) in the relatively pedestrian ACC. All losses are certainly not created equally.

This is somewhat on a parallel in what Hoo's had mentioned where things are headed, if my interpretation of his related posts are correct in those expansion type threads, etc. Traditional one or two loss SEC power type teams (B1G as well) having to get used to more L's simply as the cost of doing business in an inclusive system predominately consisting of haves vs. have nots.

Vandy’s schedule is only a tick above us in Sagarin #60 vs #63 and they’re 6-4. Kentucky at 4-6 and #55 strength. Idk what it means.

 

[orangecuse]

Vandy’s schedule is only a tick above us in Sagarin #60 vs #63 and they’re 6-4. Kentucky at 4-6 and #55 strength. Idk what it means.

IDK what it means either. Although, comparing SU, and generally an SEC historical dormant in Vandy, as well as UK (football), is not at all inspiring.

 

[djorange1989]

I’m glad our game isn’t a must win for Cal getting to a bowl, they know that if they don’t pull a Cuse against Stanford, rival or not, they are going to destroy them and be eligible. Doesn’t mean they won’t play really hard against us, just happy it isn’t a must win this week with SMU on the road to end their season. Not loving the matchup so searching for something positive

 

[PhatOrange]

IDK what it means either. Although, comparing SU, and generally an SEC historical dormant in Vandy, as well as UK (football), is not at all inspiring.

Not comparing to doormats, only comparing strength of schedule, even though they play in the SEC. Why is the SOS so low, Vandy has played VT, Alabama, Missouri, Kentucky, Texas, Auburn and South Carolina. Our board would say they’ve had a GREAT season but their SOS is only #60.

 

[kirbivore]

This Cal game has all the hallmarks of a game where we throw up all over ourselves. As fans we go in hoping for a hard fought game and the best case scenario of a win, but the team inevitably looks lethargic and outmatched and we get thumped.

It would be huge to break this paradigm. A win here would bode well for Fran.

 

[TheCusian]

It’s year 1 of a new coach. Season already has 2-3 season defining games: ranked GaTech, ranked UNLV, and maybe VaTech.

Best 1st season as HC since P?

 

[DomeHolmes]

A few short weeks ago an average NC State team went to Cal and beat them. It’s not the huge task some are making it out to be.

As usual, it depends what Syracuse team shows up. Good Syracuse wins, bad Syracuse loses. Offense will score 24+.

The guy who needs to step up is Elijah Robinson. Overall, (especially considering that we can’t tackle), our defense has been OK. People will be surprised by this, but we are 7th in the ACC in total defense, 6th in red zone touchdown percentage and 4th in third down conversions. That is usually winning defense.

But time after time, when it’s time to be aggressive, we are not. Those are his calls, and more often than not in crunch time, he is too overly cautious. Last week after the safety, BC had a third and seven, and the backup Qb was going to have to throw his first pass. We chose that opportunity to do our usual three man rush and dropped eight, all deeper than 7 yards. He had five seconds to wait for a receiver to come free underneath, and got an easy first down. Why not pressure? Force something!! Then on the drive that put them up nine points, they had a third and two, with their usual 2 tight end set, and we came out with a light box, in cover three!! basically giving them the first down.

I liked when we had an attacking defense. I would rather lose with a feast or famine approach than death by a thousand cuts.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

A few short weeks ago an average NC State team went to Cal and beat them. It’s not the huge task some are making it out to be.

As usual, it depends what Syracuse team shows up. Good Syracuse wins, bad Syracuse loses. Offense will score 24+.

The guy who needs to step up is Elijah Robinson. Overall, (especially considering that we can’t tackle), our defense has been OK. People will be surprised by this, but we are 7th in the ACC in total defense, 6th in red zone touchdown percentage and 4th in third down conversions. That is usually winning defense.

But time after time, when it’s time to be aggressive, we are not. Those are his calls, and more often than not in crunch time, he is too overly cautious. Last week after the safety, BC had a third and seven, and the backup Qb was going to have to throw his first pass. We chose that opportunity to do our usual three man rush and dropped eight, all deeper than 7 yards. He had five seconds to wait for a receiver to come free underneath, and got an easy first down. Why not pressure? Force something!! Then on the drive that put them up nine points, they had a third and two, with their usual 2 tight end set, and we came out with a light box, in cover three!! basically giving them the first down.

I liked when we had an attacking defense. I would rather lose with a feast or famine approach than death by a thousand cuts.

Agree with much of that. But for total D we have faced the least FBS plays by far. Stanford right now is #2 and they have faced 43 more plays. That is almost a game's worth. Yard per FBS play we are 16th in the ACC. The lack of plays is masking how bad our D really is. The last time we finished in the bottom 2 of the conference was when we finished last in 2017.

 

[SU91]

Agree with much of that. But for total D we have faced the least FBS plays by far. Stanford right now is #2 and they have faced 43 more plays. That is almost a game's worth. Yard per FBS play we are 16th in the ACC. The lack of plays is masking how bad our D really is. The last time we finished in the bottom 2 of the conference was when we finished last in 2017.

Great observation. When we are on defense, our defense is generally not good. It’s just that we have a ball control passing attack, which helps our D stay off the field. McCord has been great in keeping the chains moving with his arm, except any break in serve like an INT or a fumble or a 4th down stop, puts us at a disadvantage. If the other team turns us over and gets a greater number of possessions than if we had stayed on-time and on-schedule, it puts pressure on our D and we typically don’t do well. And, when you throw 30+ passes a game, you inevitably have drives that sputter. The keep away we played in some our wins were really great.

 

[Cusefan78]

I’m a broken record but I think 8-4 is critical. If all we got for firing Dino is 1 more win then color me concerned. Plus I really think this staff needs 8 wins to sell in the portal. 7 or less and it’s same old SU.

I don't think so, Fran is selling himself not the program. he's players coach, I have heard mccrod say that over and over. Frans going to sell his vision and hopefully the payers respond.

 

[djorange1989]

I don't think so, Fran is selling himself not the program. he's players coach, I have heard mccrod say that over and over. Frans going to sell his vision and hopefully the payers respond.

I agree, kids aren’t going to shut Fran down if we go 7-5 vs 8-4. Would love 8 wins since it rarely has happened here since McNabb left (only twice, regular season wins only).

As far as our defense, it stinks. Can’t tackle, can’t stop the run, can’t cover, not physical, lots of dumb penalties, way too passive. As was mentioned so clearly above, our time of possession on offense is what has saved us. It isn’t 2016 bad or anything but it still stinks

 

[Dinkyspond]

Isn't it 3 times? Marrone won 8 twice and Babers 10-win season in 2018

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Isn't it 3 times? Marrone won 8 twice and Babers 10-win season in 2018

He mentioned regular seasons wins only.

 

[Dinkyspond]

He mentioned regular seasons wins only.

That's right, 9 wins in 2001 and 2018 are the only seasons with 8 or more regular season wins since McNabb left.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

That's right, 9 wins in 2001 and 2018 are the only seasons with 8 or more regular season wins since McNabb left.

Sadly we have only three 7W seasons too. And one of those we played 2 FCS teams in a season. But to be fair in 1999, 2000, and 2004 we only played 11 games.