Nice to see UK lose. Even with those 8 straight years of #1 recruiting | Page 3 | Syracusefan.com

Nice to see UK lose. Even with those 8 straight years of #1 recruiting

It's no coincidence that Calipari's best teams have been with Anthony Davis in 2012 and Karl Anthony Towns in 2015. The best young players to join the NBA since 2012.

He won the NC in 2012 and it took a miracle from Wisconsin to beat him in 2015.

Cal goes as far as his one and done talent is good.

Some classes are better than others.
Overall he has done a good job with the system.
 
His 2011 team that made the final four I wouldn't say they were exactly overflowing with talent. Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones, really good players, for sure, but they were his 2 best guys. Kansas that year had the Morris twins, Thomas Robinson, Josh Selby, Jeff Withey. Duke had Kyrie, the Plumlee brothers, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, Seth Curry. The Uconn team that won the title, they had Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, and Shabazz.

Not saying the talent on the UK team was weak that year, it was good, but it's easy to overrate how much talent he has on a year to year basis.
 
And then he has 4 more the next year. Don't feel pity for Cal. He doesn't feel any for himself. He says it every day. He knows he has the best players in every game he coaches. Don't make excuses for him.

Whatever. I'm not making excuses. The "he has NBA players every year. He should win it more than once" narrative is ridiculous. It's a single elimination tournament.
 
Whatever. I'm not making excuses. The "he has NBA players every year. He should win it more than once" narrative is ridiculous. It's a single elimination tournament.

South Carolina is in the Final Four.

The single elimination tournament is by far the WORST playoff to determine the BEST overall team. There are so many examples in the NFL and NCAA (both being single elimination tournaments) and there is no way in hell that my New York Giants were the best team of the 2007-2008 NFL Season.
 
His 2011 team that made the final four I wouldn't say they were exactly overflowing with talent. Brandon Knight and Terrence Jones, really good players, for sure, but they were his 2 best guys. Kansas that year had the Morris twins, Thomas Robinson, Josh Selby, Jeff Withey. Duke had Kyrie, the Plumlee brothers, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith, Seth Curry. The Uconn team that won the title, they had Kemba, Jeremy Lamb, and Shabazz.

Not saying the talent on the UK team was weak that year, it was good, but it's easy to overrate how much talent he has on a year to year basis.

Where I depart from that line of thinking is that the classes ARE talented on a year to year basis, because they're chock full of top tier / blue chip recruits. Sometimes, the components fit together well and UK has dominant teams. Other years, the components don't fit well, don't mesh, or whatever and their teams aren't quite as good.

In 2011, his first year at UK, they had Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, and others -- that group was highly complimentary and they were one of the best teams in college basketball.

All of those guys went pro, but Cal followed that up with another monster class. Problem was, they weren't as good as their predecessors. Knight was the top PG recruit in the class, but he wasn't John Wall. And while that team got to the elite 8, they were a lower seed and not nearly as talented nor dangerous as the previous team.

Following year, they lost all of those principals again, but reloaded with another blockbuster class featuring Anthony Davis -- one of the top talents in the game. We know what happened from there.

Similar thing happened in 2013, when Cal loaded an absolutely monster class headlined by Nerlens Noel. Problem was, he wasn't in the same universe as Davis as a player. That team lost in the first round of the NIT [admittedly, due to Noel getting injured mid-season].

Two years later, they go undefeated all the way to the final four, on the strength of Karl Anthony Towns, Booker, and a couple of other really talented frontcourt components.

The following year, they don't get past the sweet 16.

These ebbs and flows are going to be standard for UK, I think, given the recruiting model they follow. They're up more than they are down--so the "down turns" are relative--but sometimes the sum isn't greater than the parts no matter who the recruits are.
 
Where I depart from that line of thinking is that the classes ARE talented on a year to year basis, because they're chock full of top tier / blue chip recruits. Sometimes, the components fit together well and UK has dominant teams. Other years, the components don't fit well, don't mesh, or whatever and their teams aren't quite as good.

In 2011, his first year at UK, they had Wall, Cousins, Bledsoe, and others -- that group was highly complimentary and they were one of the best teams in college basketball.

All of those guys went pro, but Cal followed that up with another monster class. Problem was, they weren't as good as their predecessors. Knight was the top PG recruit in the class, but he wasn't John Wall. And while that team got to the elite 8, they were a lower seed and not nearly as talented nor dangerous as the previous team.

Following year, they lost all of those principals again, but reloaded with another blockbuster class featuring Anthony Davis -- one of the top talents in the game. We know what happened from there.

Similar thing happened in 2013, when Cal loaded an absolutely monster class headlined by Nerlens Noel. Problem was, he wasn't in the same universe as Davis as a player. That team lost in the first round of the NIT [admittedly, due to Noel getting injured mid-season].

Two years later, they go undefeated all the way to the final four, on the strength of Karl Anthony Towns, Booker, and a couple of other really talented frontcourt components.

The following year, they don't get past the sweet 16.

These ebbs and flows are going to be standard for UK, I think, given the recruiting model they follow. They're up more than they are down--so the "down turns" are relative--but sometimes the sum isn't greater than the parts no matter who the recruits are.

(One quibble, you're off a year, the Wall/Cousins team was 2009-10. The next year, with Brandon Knight, they made the final four, and that recruiting class was supposed to have Enes Kanter, but he was deemed ineligible).

Anyway, are those ebbs and flows really all that different than any other team? If anything, Cal has probably had less ebb and flow than anyone. (At least if you base it purely on tournament success, which granted, isn't the best or only way to do it) He's made it to the elite 8 6 of his 8 years at Kentucky, with 4 of those years ending in the final four. The NIT year stands out, and the Noel injury probably cost them a tournament spot (he says, not bothering to check the timing), but really, what schools have been more consistent than UK since Cal showed up?

Here are there KP ranks (2017 isn't final, it won't change much)

4, 7, 1, 55, 13, 1, 6, 4. So one down year, and 7 of the other 8 years he's been in the top 13, with 6 of the 8 years in the top 7.

Kansas the last 8 years: 2, 2, 4, 8, 7, 12, 4, 6 (good lord)
Duke: 1, 3, 19, 6, 8, 3, 17, 13.

Basically the one NIT year definitely stands out.
 
(One quibble, you're off a year, the Wall/Cousins team was 2009-10. The next year, with Brandon Knight, they made the final four, and that recruiting class was supposed to have Enes Kanter, but he was deemed ineligible).

Anyway, are those ebbs and flows really all that different than any other team? If anything, Cal has probably had less ebb and flow than anyone. (At least if you base it purely on tournament success, which granted, isn't the best or only way to do it) He's made it to the elite 8 6 of his 8 years at Kentucky, with 4 of those years ending in the final four. The NIT year stands out, and the Noel injury probably cost them a tournament spot (he says, not bothering to check the timing), but really, what schools have been more consistent than UK since Cal showed up?

Here are there KP ranks (2017 isn't final, it won't change much)

4, 7, 1, 55, 13, 1, 6, 4. So one down year, and 7 of the other 8 years he's been in the top 13, with 6 of the 8 years in the top 7.

Kansas the last 8 years: 2, 2, 4, 8, 7, 12, 4, 6 (good lord)
Duke: 1, 3, 19, 6, 8, 3, 17, 13.

Basically the one NIT year definitely stands out.

(Was going from memory, didn't look the info up to validate years)

The KP ratings are hardly the end all / be all, but they debunk the notion that their year over year talent base is overrated, which was my point. Which is why I don't shed a tear when UK gets bounced, because he gets numerous blue chippers every year and the on-paper talent is extraordinarily high any given year.

I think you are also misinterpreting that I'm implying that other schools are more consistent or have better results. I'm really not. Ken Pom is different than NCAA results [admittedly, not the best nor the only way to judge season success].
 
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Whatever. I'm not making excuses. The "he has NBA players every year. He should win it more than once" narrative is ridiculous. It's a single elimination tournament.

yep it is extermely difficult and even more so when you don't have that talent level. I would hope folks keep that in mind before they ever mention Jimmy only has one title!

Cuse
 
(Was going from memory, didn't look the info up to validate years)

The KP ratings are hardly the end all / be all, but they debunk the notion that their year over year talent base is overrated, which was my point. Which is why I don't shed a tear when UK gets bounced, because he gets numerous blue chippers every year and the on-paper talent is extraordinarily high any given year.

I think you are also misinterpreting that I'm implying that other schools are more consistent or have better results. I'm really not. Ken Pom is different than NCAA results [admittedly, not the best nor the only way to judge season success].

Yeah Ken Pom was just one way; it's easy for me to pull the history and compare. It's not the final word.

I wasn't trying to say their talent base is consistently overrated. I was responding to the point that they have the most talented team in the country every year or somehting like that. They don't. They often have the most talented team, they always have a very talented team, but it's not like they enter every season as the odds on favorite to win the title or anything. Taking the 2011 team to the final four, for instance, I think that's a pretty good accomplishment, and not an example of underachieving. I'll stop saying nice things about Kentucky now.
 
Anybody who thinks Calipari has underachieved in the tournament, does not have a realistic view of single-elimination tournaments.

Let's imagine an unrealistic scenario where Kentucky is so much better than everyone else that they have a 100% chance of winning their first round game and then a 90% chance of winning each of the rest of their games. (100% x 90% x 90% x 90% x 90% x 90% = 59%) They would have only a 59% chance of winning the whole tournament. No Kentucky line up has been good enough to have a 90% chance of winning each game in the tournament. They have great recruiting classes, but they are not the UConn women.
 

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