I agree with your analysis mostly, but this part just misses the point. I don't believe in NIL and paying players because I thought it would make our team better. I believe in it because it's the right thing to do. Sure a free 300k education is great, but when you make the school hundreds of millions of dollars via media rights, merchandise, etc etc, you deserve to get a big part of it. It's the right thing to do. Has it hurt Syracuse basketball? Absolutely. But please don't act like we're idiots for wanting NIL and paying the players-- some of us are capable of having values larger than the success of our favorite college sports team.
Now, I think in some ways, the current situation is the "worst" of both worlds and it may get better in the near future. Right now, because the NCAA is still trying to resist the professionalization of players and because schools can't pay players directly, everything is operating on handshake agreements and both players and schools are vulnerable to being taken advantage of. This is also bad for college sports at large as a business, IMO, as 100% free agency every year leads to massive player movement in a way that makes it hard for fans to get attached to players. Long term, it could lead to a decrease in the revenue that players and schools share.
The answer, IMO, is to formalize schools paying the players-- ie making them "professionals" in every sense of the word. This would allow schools to sign players to contracts with all of the binding language that implies. Schools could sign players to 4 year guaranteed contracts that would prevent the player from moving on, but would also assure the player of getting paid, regardless of injury or poor performance. Players could choose to sign 1 year deals and bet on themselves, or take the security of long term deals. Will Syracuse still be at a disadvantage compared to the richest schools? Absolutely, but at least if they can win at scouting and development, they will reap the benefit of it.
