A Clockwork Orange
2022 Cali Winner (Overall Record)
- Joined
- Aug 14, 2011
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- 1,851
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And not as bad as the MTSU game. I'm pumping the brakes very slightly on all the hype after Clemson. The only thing that game proves is that this team CAN play that well. It doesn't mean they always will play that well, especially this year.
I don't hope for a win on Saturday. A win would be wonderful, but the most important thing is this team maintains consistency. Consistency for them right now is not the Clemson game, and it's not the MTSU game. Consistently good means they don't lose by two or three touchdowns. It means they don't lay an egg in a game they can be competitive in.
I'd love to think that this team turned the corner, and it's all gravy from here. That's usually not how this "learning to win" thing goes. It happens in fits and starts. If this team can rise to consistently good though? It means they will always be competitive.
I find that a good barometer to see that a team is starting to come into its own is how it does ATS. Last year, SU was 4-8 ATS. This year they are 4-2-1 (push). Their only two losses were the first two games of the year against CCSU and MTSU. The CCSU game was a 46 point spread, SU won by 43. I might not even count that one, since it's against a lower division team in the first game of the season. In the last five games, SU is 4-0-1. That's good. That shows they are over-performing based on Vegas predictions.
I've found that if you're good against the spread it typically means you're a pretty good team, or you are trending upwards as you are beating predictors. Miami is currently 5-0 ATS. So they look pretty good too.
I'm still looking for 6 wins and a bowl game out of this year. Anything after that proves this system is moving faster towards relevancy than we thought. And if SU is going to lose this weekend, I want it to be by 14 points or less. If they do that on the road, against an undefeated #8 team it shows something. Maybe it shows more than the Clemson game because it's on the road.
I don't hope for a win on Saturday. A win would be wonderful, but the most important thing is this team maintains consistency. Consistency for them right now is not the Clemson game, and it's not the MTSU game. Consistently good means they don't lose by two or three touchdowns. It means they don't lay an egg in a game they can be competitive in.
I'd love to think that this team turned the corner, and it's all gravy from here. That's usually not how this "learning to win" thing goes. It happens in fits and starts. If this team can rise to consistently good though? It means they will always be competitive.
I find that a good barometer to see that a team is starting to come into its own is how it does ATS. Last year, SU was 4-8 ATS. This year they are 4-2-1 (push). Their only two losses were the first two games of the year against CCSU and MTSU. The CCSU game was a 46 point spread, SU won by 43. I might not even count that one, since it's against a lower division team in the first game of the season. In the last five games, SU is 4-0-1. That's good. That shows they are over-performing based on Vegas predictions.
I've found that if you're good against the spread it typically means you're a pretty good team, or you are trending upwards as you are beating predictors. Miami is currently 5-0 ATS. So they look pretty good too.
I'm still looking for 6 wins and a bowl game out of this year. Anything after that proves this system is moving faster towards relevancy than we thought. And if SU is going to lose this weekend, I want it to be by 14 points or less. If they do that on the road, against an undefeated #8 team it shows something. Maybe it shows more than the Clemson game because it's on the road.
