NY Mets 2024-2025 offseason thread

[Cusefan95]

I think Nimmo is worth every cent. Even in a down year he was more valuable than Alonso.

Nimmo was at 2.2 WAR. Alonso was at 2.6. I get that Nimmo brings “intangibles”, but give me tangibles first, then intangibles can be a tiebreaker. It’s not a tie, Alonso provided more value.

Nimmo’s also 31…that contract is going to age like milk. For last year at a smidge over $20MM, I would agree he was worth that. But he likely wont be in two years, and there’s 5 years left on his contract.

 

[donniesyracuse]

Nimmo was at 2.2 WAR. Alonso was at 2.6. I get that Nimmo brings “intangibles”, but give me tangibles first, then intangibles can be a tiebreaker. It’s not a tie, Alonso provided more value.

I prefer FanGraphs WAR (Nimmo = 2.7, Alonso = 2.1). He plays much more valuable positions and is a good baserunner. His skillset is much more scarce than a power hitting 1B.

 

[upperdeck]

what will the value of Nimmo type player be in 5 yrs though.

The problem with most contracts is that you under pay until you dont and they you overpay to the end.

 

[donniesyracuse]

what will the value of Nimmo type player be in 5 yrs though.

The problem with most contracts is that you under pay until you dont and they you overpay to the end.

It’s not really a problem. Teams know this. That’s what the market dictates.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

1 WAR is worth about $8MM/yr. Last year Pete’s was 2.6, so he had a $20MM season. It’s the second year in a row of dropping, near a time when all guys with just power start to decline - so that may be closer to his ceiling going forward. Last year may not have been a “down year” - it was a slightly early start to an inevitable trend.

His career average WAR is 3.8 - so after his rookie year he basically settled in to being a $30MM/yr guy. He’s definitely only worth 3, 4 years max to the Mets because after that he’ll probably need to be DH - and the Mets probably have Soto slotted there five years from now. But the likelihood a guy who averages a WAR of 3.8 up to age 30 will still be a 3.8 WAR guy in three years is really, really low. Pete’s more likely to get hit by lightning than hit 3.8 WAR in three years unless a three inch needle is involved.

What’s happened in the last 5-10 years is all teams heavily invest in analytics staff - and none of the analytics would say giving Pete more than 3/30 is a good idea. If, as reported, the Mets offer is even lower - that means they’re sticking to what they project his actual value to be…he’s not going to average a 3.8 WAR for the next three years.

Teams also stopped paying for what players had done and started paying for what they will likely do. Players of course had the valid point that although they may be getting overpaid on the back end, they are severely underpaid relative to performance during their pre-arb and even arb years . Ideally you want pay and production to mirror each other in time.

 

[OrangeFoo]

I think Nimmo is worth every cent. Even in a down year he was more valuable than Alonso.

He’s also the leader of the team along with Lindor. Pete never wanted to be the leader, which is fine. Also Nimmo seems like an asset on D and is an above average hitter. He just needs to stay healthy.

 

[sutomcat]

Liked the AJ Minter signing. 2 years $22 is a solid deal for the Mets. He had some problems with his hip last season but the Mets just went through that with Peterson and should be well prepared to deal with any lingering issues. I believe the deal is pending a physical and we all know the Mets take that seriously. So if there are still issues, I would expect the deal to be nullified.

Scott is apparently asking for 4 years and $20 million a season. Good luck to him getting that. Relievers, like first basemen, are generally not getting big bucks or long term contracts. If the top guy you want is asking for too much, the smart move is to pivot to the 2nd best option and grab it before someone else does.

I think the pitching staff is pretty much done now. All they really need to do is add a reliable power hitter to play 1B or 3B. I don’t think it will be Santander. We are set with OF/DH types after adding Winker.

I think they want to move Marte to free up some salary. If they can do that, maybe it frees them to spend a bit more on the infielder they add. If Alonso or Bergman are willing to lower their price, maybe one happens. Right now I am expecting them to make a trade instead.

Don’t think they will re-sign Igelsias. I know he is really well liked by everyone but I think they want to leave that space for Acuna. Maybe Mauricio or Baty. Would not be surprised if one of these guys ends up the starting 2B and McNeil becomes the backup infielder.

I know they are talking about possibly going into the season with internal options to backfill Pete’s spot. Right now, I think teams are asking a ton and it might not be a bad idea to wait until the end of spring training or even into the season to make a move. Maybe one of the kids is ready?

I doubt Guerrero is in the cards but there are lots of options. I have confidence Stearns will make a good decision.

 

[donniesyracuse]

He’s also the leader of the team along with Lindor. Pete never wanted to be the leader, which is fine. Also Nimmo seems like an asset on D and is an above average hitter. He just needs to stay healthy.

I don’t need to consider leadership. Alonso’s career wRC+ is 131. Nimmo’s is 128. Their offensive contributions are pretty close and Nimmo plays more valuable positions. I would much rather pay $20 million/year over the next five years to Nimmo than Alonso.

 

[OrangeFoo]

They might as well hand the 2025 World Series to the Dodgers... they already had a good bullpen and now they have Scott. If they stay healthy no one can beat them in a 7 game series. Here's a great question... of their 5 starters, who goes to the bullpen during the playoffs? Let's assume Ohtani isn't a pitcher during the playoffs... Roki? Yamamoto? Snell? Glasgow?

And we haven't even discussed their line up with 3 MVPs plus other really good hitters.

Sadly I can't even be pissed... I just want to know why the Mets can't pull this off. They could have had Scott but Stearns didn't want to give him a 4 year contract. Love what Stearns is doing... but if the goal is to win a WS and the Dodgers are the target then he needs to start competing with the Dodgers.

Without a major bat addition the offence is still not as good as last year and without one more starter, I'm still not convinced the pitching is as good as last year. If the Dodgers weren't building an all star team out west, I'd say the Mets had as a good a chance as anyone, but the Dodgers are really upping the bar.

 

[donniesyracuse]

They might as well hand the 2025 World Series to the Dodgers...

That is nonsense. We know that anything can happen in a short series, even when there is a large talent disparity. The Dodgers will have to play in at least three of them in the postseason.

 

[sutomcat]

Carlos Baerga says the Mets gave Pete until the end of today to decide if he is going to accept their final offer. He has been a reliable source in the past. We should know soon if he is staying in NYC.

There are reports the Mets are talking to Profar and Flaherty. Would not be surprised if Pete decides to go elsewhere if the. Mets reserve some money for a possible bargain late this winter. What they did with Martinez last year.

Pete’s offer has an opt out but only after year 2.

 

[MSOrange]

Mets owner Steve Cohen: Pete Alonso negotiations 'exhausting'

The Mets held their first winter event for fans in five years at Citi Field, and Pete Alonso was a notable absence.

www.espn.com

 

[sutomcat]

Mets owner Steve Cohen: Pete Alonso negotiations 'exhausting'

The Mets held their first winter event for fans in five years at Citi Field, and Pete Alonso was a notable absence.

www.espn.com

I can relate. I am exhausted trying to follow this story. Can’t imagine how Steve must feel.

Hopefully it ends soon. I need a resolution soon!

 

[OrangeFoo]

I can related. I am exhausted trying to follow this story. Can’t imagine how Steve must feel.

Hopefully it ends soon. I need a resolution soon!

Mets lineup is one bat short as of now… I really hope they don’t go into the season like that. Then you look at how inconsistent McNeil and Alvy have been, the poor hitting in center and the missing platoon partner for winkler… bottom of the lineup is very weak.

 

[SWC75]

MLB 2025 farm system rankings: Keith Law ranks all 30 teams, Mariners are new No. 1

Law's annual farm system rankings has the Mariners up top, followed by the Red Sox and Dodgers. The Astros and Angels are at the bottom.

www.nytimes.com

The Mets are 15th:

"The Mets have drafted well for a decade, and had some big hits on the international free agent side — not even counting the guy they just signed last month, Elian Peña, who at least sounds like the next Dominican superstar — and even with multiple trades that have shipped out a lot of prospect talent, they still come in right at the median. The tier behind their three top 100 guys is packed with upside, and there are 4-5 guys in the back half of their top 20 who at least offer a sliver of ceiling along with the probability of some big-league value."

 

[MSOrange]

 

[OrangeFoo]

I am glad Pete is still a Met and hopefully Soto’s presence will take the pressure off him and he can go back the being a bit more of a disciplined hitter. One of the worst played free agent gambles I’ve seen… and he will need to do all this again next offseason. He needs to fire Boras.

 

[sutomcat]

He needs to get 27 HRs this season to get the all time career high for the Mets. That should happen and should be a great moment for him and Mets fans.

If he has a good year, he will surely hit the free agent market again, and compete directly against Vlad Guerrero. Maybe that will help him.

If he struggles, maybe he comes back for a second year at 'only' $24 million.

The Mets needed a bat for 2025 and did not want to do a long term contract and got their way. Thinking in 2026, the 1B job probably goes to Vientos or maybe Clifford. Acuna, Baty or Maurcio will probably end up at the 3B. I don't expect the Mets to go all in on Vlad when they have capable young players who will get paid almost nothing and I don't expect the Mets will go after Pete after 2025 either.

You need to roll over older players who are getting big bucks for young ones getting chicken feed if you want to manage your payroll properly. I think Stearns is going to make this happen.

 

[GreekFreak]

Excited to have Pete back. I know this stuff (most) always comes down to money but I do believe that his heart is in NY. I hope that he crushes it.

 

[OrangeFoo]

With Pete the lineup is now pretty long: Lindor, Nimmo, Soto, Pete, Vientos, McNeil, Alvy, CF, DH.

If McNeil maintains his form from end of last year this lineup is really dangerous. It would be even more dangerous if they could swing a trade for Robert.

 

[donniesyracuse]

If he has a good year, he will surely hit the free agent market again, and compete directly against Vlad Guerrero. Maybe that will help him.

If he struggles, maybe he comes back for a second year at 'only' $24 million.

The Mets needed a bat for 2025 and did not want to do a long term contract and got their way. Thinking in 2026, the 1B job probably goes to Vientos or maybe Clifford. Acuna, Baty or Maurcio will probably end up at the 3B. I don't expect the Mets to go all in on Vlad when they have capable young players who will get paid almost nothing and I don't expect the Mets will go after Pete after 2025 either.

I don’t see the demand for 1B/DH over 30 types increasing. I cannot imagine Alonzo opting-out after 2025.

I think even Vlad Jr., who is younger and on a different level, is in for a rude awakening. If he is hoping for a Soto deal, he is likely going to be disappointed.

 

[Orangezoo]

With Pete the lineup is now pretty long: Lindor, Nimmo, Soto, Pete, Vientos, McNeil, Alvy, CF, DH.

If McNeil maintains his form from end of last year this lineup is really dangerous. It would be even more dangerous if they could swing a trade for Robert.

I’m pretty bullish on next year with Pete back. Alvarez is due to break out, resigned Winker, McNeil back in form… a lot to like with this line up and the matchups. Big bats and generational superstar, young prospects coming into their own- that’s the recipe.

Pitching is a question but it Senga can be fully healthy and has his best stuff I think this rotation can be good enough given there is a good bit of depth to play around with.

 

[SWC75]

New York Mets 2025 top 20 prospects: Brandon Sproat, Jett Williams lead the way

The Mets system is deep with a mix of upper-level talent and high-upside prospects. Boston Baro might be a name to know soon.

www.nytimes.com

"The Mets’ system is still solid even after last year’s trades to bolster the playoff run, thanks to continued success in the draft (albeit with a couple of high-profile misses the last few years). Their international scouting department remains very productive as well, although I don’t count the just-signed Elian Peña, who sounds like a potential superstar, in these rankings."

 

[Orangezoo]

New York Mets 2025 top 20 prospects: Brandon Sproat, Jett Williams lead the way

The Mets system is deep with a mix of upper-level talent and high-upside prospects. Boston Baro might be a name to know soon.

www.nytimes.com

"The Mets’ system is still solid even after last year’s trades to bolster the playoff run, thanks to continued success in the draft (albeit with a couple of high-profile misses the last few years). Their international scouting department remains very productive as well, although I don’t count the just-signed Elian Peña, who sounds like a potential superstar, in these rankings."

Yeah it’s refreshing to see the current prospect pipeline along with what the roster looks like now. Certainly could see a need to part ways with a couple young guns chasing pitching but that would be a far cry from that resulting in having nothing left after like we’ve dealt with in the past decade.

 

[SWC75]

Mets spring guide: 31 thoughts for 31 hitters, from Acuña to Lindor to Young

Francisco Lindor is among the obvious choices on a Mets roster that looks just about set. Which players will be competing for jobs?

www.nytimes.com

"With only a couple of days to go before the start of spring training, here’s one thought for every position player expected at the Mets’ camp in Port St. Lucie, Fla. The pitching version of this story appeared last week.

Luisangel Acuña, INF: If the Mets think it best to carry a backup shortstop, then that gives Acuña more of a shot at making the roster. He impressed in September, but that was a small sample size. He carried some success into winter ball in Venezuela, but the competition there isn’t always particularly strong."