Just a quick discussion on Vlad Guerrero Jr. He says he will be a free agent at the end of 2025 and says he will go on the open market. The Jay had to the start of camp to sign him to an extension and it didnt work out. Lots of people are making the Mets the favorites to sign him. People are projecting $400 million to 10 years, perhaps more.
Will the Mets sign him? I say no chance. It is a chance of economics. The Mets have so much money committed to Soto and Lindor that another long term contract is just not feasible. You can’t tie up $120 a year on three players and have enough left to field a complete and solid roster. It just is not possible.
I expect that Alonso will likely opt out after 2025 and this time, the Mets will not bid on him. If he decides to stay for his second year, which is possible, it means he did not play well in 2025 and I am not sure he will be good enough to start for the Mets in 2026.
I expect that the Mets will backfill 1B with Ryan Clifford, a promising young 1B slated to play in Syracuse in 2025, or maybe move Vientos to 1B and put Acuna, Baty or Mauricio at 3B. A lot will depend on how these guys play in 2025.
My expectation is that Acuna will be the starting 2B by the start of 2026. Probably by late 2025. McNeil’s extension ends after the 2026 season, so they might trade him with one year left on his contract or hold on to him. His versatility makes him a good guy to have on the roster. But I think it is unlikely he will still start in 2026.
I also expect Drew Gilbert to have a solid year at Syracuse in 2025 and think he will probably get called up to the Mets around September to help the team down the stretch. I have him penciled in as the starting CF in 2026. I am very high on him. All he has to do is stay healthy. If Drew disappoints, I expect Jett will be the guy. If he also fails, we could end up seeing Acuna in CF as the starter. Or Benge, who is reportedly really advanced and expected to move up quickly in the Met farm system. The nice thing is there are a number of really good prospects in play here. At least one should end up being a solid player for us in CF in 2026.
Here is how I see the starting players in 2026:
Lindor SS
Soto RF
Vientos 1B
TBD DH
Nimmo LF
Mauricio 3B
Alvarez C
Gilbert CF*
Acuna 2B
*=or Acuna, Benge or Williams
I think the DH will be a veteran guy on a short term contract. Think a player like JD Martinez in 2024. If Clifford had a big year in Syracuse in 2025, he might end up taking the job himself in 2026.
The rotation will probably include Senga, Menaea, and Holmes. Peterson and Megill are on 1 year contracts for 2025 and probably become free agents. Montas is under contract for 2026 and if he pitches well in 2025, he will probably return to the rotation. I expect Sproat to break into the rotation and it is possible Tidwell, McLean, Scott or Tong could get some starts during the season as well. The rotation should get younger in 2026.
As far as relief pitchers go, Diaz is under contract until 2027 so I expect him to still be the closer. Hopefully Nunez and Butto have become established relief pitchers by then. Minter will be in the second year of his 2 year contract and should be a big piece. Garrett Reed has a year of arbitration in 2026 so he might still be around. As always with David Stearns, there will be some pitchers signed to short term contracts with interesting qualities the organization values. And they will probably do well.
Bottom line, I would expect the total money paid to players in 2026 to be down pretty markedly.
Vientos is not eligible for arbitration until 2027 so he is going to be a great bargain for the Mets in 2027. Probably will not even make 1 million.
Alvarez has his first year of arbitration in 2026, so he is likely going to get a bump to 7-10 million, with a lot depending on his 2025 season. But still, he should have a relatively low salary.
If Pete comes back, his salary will drop to a relatively affordable le $24 million for 2026.
Holmes is getting 13 million.
Senga is getting 15 million.
Diaz is getting 15.5 million in 2026.
Montas is getting 17 million.
Nimmo’s salary is set at $20.5 million for 2026.
Lindor is getting 34.1 million in 2026.
Soto is getting 46.85 million.
The key to get the payroll lower is to replace high priced veterans with younger players getting chicken feed pre-arbitration contracts. I think the Mets are on the way towards this happening. They have room to add a couple veterans getting short term contracts for $20 million or so but Steve Cohen wants to get the payroll under control and signing guys like Vlad is not going to allow that to happen.