OK Fellow degenerates, KY Derby 2018...

IthacaBarrel

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#1
Past 4 or 5 years the favorite has won. This year the Bob Baffert trained Justify will be the favorite with the shipper Mendolsohn as the most likely 2nd favorite. Also thinking the Chad Brown trained Good Magic could have a shot but I think the likely winner is one of the two favorites.

Mendolsohn's last race which was in Dubai in the UAE Derby is freakish.. FREAKISH

I am pissed that Gronkowski is not running as that would have been a horse that took a BUNCH of money at the betting windows that had ZERO chance of winning, much like Patch from last year
 

upperdeck

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#3
My brother has Mendolsohn in the future book at 40-1 so he was happy with that effort even if the Beyers was just so so.

I am making the trip to the derby this year for the 2nd time but first for my kid.
 

IthacaBarrel

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#4
My brother has Mendolsohn in the future book at 40-1 so he was happy with that effort even if the Beyers was just so so.

I am making the trip to the derby this year for the 2nd time but first for my kid.
His performance was dominant in the UAE Derby even if the track was speed favoring with the inside rail position. That said, he certainly isn't your typical European shipper and he has proven that he can win on any surface. Can he get the 1-1/4 mile distance would be the biggest question. Son of Scat Daddy would be the question mark but I certainly think he will be the 2nd favorite. I have Justify at 20-1 in Futures and GM at 22-1 after the flop in the Fountain of Youth or whatever the race he ran was at GULF first back after the Breeder's.

Really have to see post positions before you can really pick apart the race.
 

cliftonparksufan

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#5
I've been on the Justify bandwagon since the beginning but wouldn't mind seeing local favorite Chad Brown's horse win. But more than anything else, I think Justify and Bolt D'oro are the two best three year olds and would love to see an Affirmed/Alydar triple crown series.
 

IthacaBarrel

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#6
I've been on the Justify bandwagon since the beginning but wouldn't mind seeing local favorite Chad Brown's horse win. But more than anything else, I think Justify and Bolt D'oro are the two best three year olds and would love to see an Affirmed/Alydar triple crown series.
I think Bolt D'Oro is a great horse with a bad trainer who is the owner of the horse. Amazing what he has done with such an amateur as his trainer, wish they would have let one of the West Coast up and comers train him, a guy like Phil Damato would have been great
 

djcon57

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#7
I've been talking up Bolt for a year now and even with the bad trainer and the lost to Justify, I'm all over him in this race.

Justify will gas with this field...if he doesn't, I'll be shocked. I know he has these blow away numbers, but 5 horse fields...lots of space and time for Smith to think. Obviously he can blow everyone away like Dreaming did last year, but I really like Flameaway and Promises to tire him out.

Mendelsson, the hype may be real, but I can't get past watching him in the Juvy turf barely get by a shaky field for me to put anything on him with what he'll be going off at


All can change with the posts and scratches, obviously, but right now today:
Bolt to Win and prob Place if the price is right
Bolt - Good Magic Ex Box
Bolt Tri Key with Good Magic, Justify, and My Boy Jack as my pointless closer that hits the board
 

IthacaBarrel

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#8
I've been talking up Bolt for a year now and even with the bad trainer and the lost to Justify, I'm all over him in this race.

Justify will gas with this field...if he doesn't, I'll be shocked. I know he has these blow away numbers, but 5 horse fields...lots of space and time for Smith to think. Obviously he can blow everyone away like Dreaming did last year, but I really like Flameaway and Promises to tire him out.

Mendelsson, the hype may be real, but I can't get past watching him in the Juvy turf barely get by a shaky field for me to put anything on him with what he'll be going off at


All can change with the posts and scratches, obviously, but right now today:
Bolt to Win and prob Place if the price is right
Bolt - Good Magic Ex Box
Bolt Tri Key with Good Magic, Justify, and My Boy Jack as my pointless closer that hits the board

Interesting. I love Mendohlson and I thought Bolt looked mediocre in the Santa Anita Derby, I will be tossing him. Gallop out was pretty bad, don't think he gets 1-1/4 mile distance and other than the DQ victory versus the other Baffert horse two back he hasn't won a race in his last 3 starts. I just don't see it but that's why the Derby is the Derby, I can assure you of one thing, if you make money, I won't. I like Good Magic though, 3rd start back, great jock/ trainer combo.

Really tough to tell much until they draw the post positions. I am going to use Justify/Mendo a lot with 1st and 2nd and spread for 3rd probably GM, Noble Indy, Lone Sailor has been impressive.one of the Romans horses, Jack and probably Mott trained horse.
 
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djcon57

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#10
Going to have to relook at this tonight. All the early long shot speed is buried inside. Going to rewatch Mendleson races too.
 

CuseFaninVT

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#13
Been invited to a neighbor's party the last three years to watch this race. They're from Louisville so they do it up right and I'm always very hungover the next day.

Bummed as we will miss it this year because of the kid's AAU tourney.
 

KaiserUEO

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#14
I just went total degenerate Barrell and downloaded the betting app for my phone.

1 added bonus of the Pope coming back is...horse racing coverage.

I’ll need Brad Thomas on his usual Friday spot more than ever...
 

Chip

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#15
I just went total degenerate Barrell and downloaded the betting app for my phone.

1 added bonus of the Pope coming back is...horse racing coverage.

I’ll need Brad Thomas on his usual Friday spot more than ever...
I'm an XpressBet addict. Starts with this weekend, then I just start riding it out, betting anywhere and everywhere. After the Belmont, I'll take a breather.
 

IthacaBarrel

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#16
I just went total degenerate Barrell and downloaded the betting app for my phone.

1 added bonus of the Pope coming back is...horse racing coverage.

I’ll need Brad Thomas on his usual Friday spot more than ever...

Love it. Twinspires and NYRA Bets APP are staples for me. Pope will be all fired up and will be in midseason form by the Belmont.

Looking at the draw- Justify, Mendo and Good Magic are all in good shape. Justify is in the Cat bird seat though. Audible as well in 5 hole
 

IthacaBarrel

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#17
I'm an XpressBet addict. Starts with this weekend, then I just start riding it out, betting anywhere and everywhere. After the Belmont, I'll take a breather.

catch your breath before Saratoga... Belmont Day is so great now with all the races they have that day, Met Mile etc.

I should probably take a break as my wife is a bet appalled at the # of W2G forms that roll into the house come tax season...
 

KaiserUEO

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#18
It’s the 4NJBets app for me.

I’ll probably use it mainly for the big 3, then right through Toga, then break till the Breeders.

Next year I’ll be all over the Derby preps.

But Saturday/Sunday afternoons at the pool just got a hell of a lot more exciting for sure.
 

IthacaBarrel

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#19
It’s the 4NJBets app for me.

I’ll probably use it mainly for the big 3, then right through Toga, then break till the Breeders.

Next year I’ll be all over the Derby preps.

But Saturday/Sunday afternoons at the pool just got a hell of a lot more exciting for sure.

For watching NYRA Racing, download the NYRA Now App. All the nyra action is in High def and is great. Good to have racing back at Belmont
 

KaiserUEO

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#21
Mike did confirm that Brad Thomas will be on Friday. Doesn’t know the time yet.
 

djcon57

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#22
Well...I think I'm on the Justify wagon.

I don't see anything that will tire him out afte crunching the numbers and trying to figure the pace scenarios.

I think Espinoza will have Bolt closer early and should give him a better shot but rewatching his last 3 races. I don't see him having that extra gear to get past Justify without another early pace setter to gas him out.

Mendelsson is interesting, but I feel like he's need to be closer to Justify to take him.

So now I got...
Going to single Justify in the pick 4 cause I don't think a win bet will be enough.

Key Bolt 2 or 3 with Mendelsson, Good Magic, Audible, My Boy Jack, and Free Drop Billy to round out my tris and supers.

Maybe a Justify key box with mend, bolt, audible, magic if it's worth it

Ohhh... 10 bucks on Hofburg. His numbers are interesting enough if he stays at 30-1 or whatever.
 

IthacaBarrel

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#23
Well...I think I'm on the Justify wagon.

I don't see anything that will tire him out afte crunching the numbers and trying to figure the pace scenarios.

I think Espinoza will have Bolt closer early and should give him a better shot but rewatching his last 3 races. I don't see him having that extra gear to get past Justify without another early pace setter to gas him out.

Mendelsson is interesting, but I feel like he's need to be closer to Justify to take him.

So now I got...
Going to single Justify in the pick 4 cause I don't think a win bet will be enough.

Key Bolt 2 or 3 with Mendelsson, Good Magic, Audible, My Boy Jack, and Free Drop Billy to round out my tris and supers.

Maybe a Justify key box with mend, bolt, audible, magic if it's worth it

Ohhh... 10 bucks on Hofburg. His numbers are interesting enough if he stays at 30-1 or whatever.

I Like it, going to play a superfecta with Justify and Mendo at the 1 and spots and spread for 3 and 4 with 5 or so horses in the 3rd and 4th spots, not sure who though yet.
 

br801

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#24
For watching NYRA Racing, download the NYRA Now App. All the nyra action is in High def and is great. Good to have racing back at Belmont
The NYRA Now app is tremendous and interfaces seamlessly with NYRA Bets.

We're sure a long way from the days of standing in a line at the track to place a $5 exacta bet and then getting into another line to make a $10 win bet, and jumping over to another line to cash winning tickets. But that was fun, too.
 


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