Here is my guess as to minutes played,
Ennis, Gbinije, Fair, Grant, Keita, and Coleman play starters minutes. I know I have six guys playing starters minutes and not five, but I see Keita and Coleman splitting time fairly equally.
Cooney and Roberson play in the regular rotation, getting back up minutes. I think Cooney might be THE most important indicator of overall team success this year. We are going to lack good outside shooters. If Cooney can fill that hole this team begins to look like a very complete team. If he can't, it starts to look like a flawed team.
Patterson and Christmas have a chance to get back up minutes if they impress, but likely fall to the end of the bench, and dont see much time in meaningful games.
Johnson and Chino are both red shirt candidates. I think Chino gets a shirt. I hope Johnson does, although I would not bet on it.
Here is my argument for why Johnson should red shirt his freshman year.
Johnson can play either shooting guard or forward. At forward Grant and Fair are locks to start and get big minutes. Boeheim is only going to play 3 forwards. Johnson is going to have to compete with Roberson for that third forward spot, and while I think Johnson is more skilled than Roberson, Tyler is more physically ready to bang down low right now, and in the end that will win out.
As a two, Johnson will bring length and shooting (a skill that will be much needed on this years team). However, he will not bring a ton of ball handling for a guard, and certainly will not be a pseudo second point guard the way Triche was. I think that being forced to play a true freshman point guard like Ennis will make Boeheim want to put the best ball handlers possible around him to try to lighten his load; that means playing more of Gbinije and Cooney and less of Johnson.
Also, if you look at the history of great shooting wings who are 6'7 or 6'8 you will see that it usually takes them a year or two to adjust to the college game. Nichols couldn't hit anything his first two seasons, and went on to hit everything his last two seasons. Southerland was the same way. Even Wes Johnson's career was that way (his freshman and sophomore year at Iowa St. he was not a great shooter at all, it was not until he came to Syracuse that the three began to fall regularly).
Knowing this history, and knowing that BJ is young for a D1 basketball player, and can stand to put on some muscle, I think a red shirt year helps him exponentially. Once he gets a few years under Boeheim's system I expect him to excel. Look at how dominant Southerland was in the Big East tournament last year. When a 6'7 or 6'8 guy has is going from deep he is almost impossible to stop. I look forward to years of that from BJ.
On an overall team note. I think Grant and Coleman need to show dramatic improvement for the team to be good. It is going to be the toughest for Grant because he and Fair both like to occupy the same spot on the floor. My guess is Grant works hard on his midrange shot this year, and Fair works hard on his three point shooting. Fair shot an amazing percentage from three last year but he only took wide open shots. His release is very slow. He made his living around the basket. If Fair is going to make his living outside he is going to have to improve his shot a lot. My guess is his percentage from three drops to somewhere around 35 percent, but he shoots a lot more and his shot improves a lot.
If Grant can hit the midrange shot (something he showed flashes of last year) it will allow both he and Fair to coexist, and either to drive into a mostly open lane when the situation dictates - which hopefully is often.
With Fair, Grant, and Coleman scoring a lot, Syracuse can afford to have inconsistent guards. Since none of Syracuse's guards have much experience at all, I think inconsistency is a pretty realistic expectation. On the offensive end, Fair, Grant, and Coleman are going to have to carry the load, and that will be more difficult if Cooney struggles from deep and Syracuse cant open things up by hitting outside shots.
On the defensive end, Syracuse wont be as good as they were the last two years, but I expect them to be good, and I expect Grant and Fair to be one of the better defensive forward combinations ever at Syracuse. Grant, in particular, has all the tools to be among the best defensive players Syracuse has ever had.
