You can never compare year-to-year resumes because every year is different. Not only does the bubble fluctuate , but the committee changes their emphasis almost every year. But anyone looking at last year and thinking we were in a spot than we are now - don't worry, because it's really not even close.
Last year we finished 18-14, this year we're already 18-9. We did finish 10-8 in the ACC, but to me the difference between 10-8 in conference and 8-10 is moot because of the unbalanced. I don't think conference record matters unless you have a drastic situation where you were 13-0 out of conference but 6-12 in conference. I think if we get to 8 conference wins (which is 1 more win than we have now) we will be in the conversation, but the more the better.
Last year's metrics were horrible RPI of 84, Non-Conf RPI of 188, SOS of 64, Non-Conf SOS of 215. This year we sit with an RPI of 38, Non-Conf RPI of 16, SOS of 27 and Non-Conf SOS of 21. Last year's metrics measured like a team that shouldn't have even been close to the bubble, this year's is much more worthy - and it's not even close. And our metrics will improve this year if you look at our remaining schedule, as long as we don't lose out..
We went 2-8 away from the Dome last year with no "good" wins (unless you count NC STate, a team that did not make the tournament, not even close). As of today we are 5-5 away from home. And if you go strictly by RPI, 2 of our top 3 wins are on the road. A far cry from last year.
Now, we get to the 1 reason that people wanted us in last year (frankly there were no other viable reasons) - we had 3 top 25 wins, all at home. We finished 6-8 vs. the top 50 which is a lot of top 50 games. Conversely, this year we are currently 2-5 vs. the top 50 RPI (Louisville sits at 51 and VaTech at 55). Our best win still stands as Buffalo based strictly on the RPI. However, with the introduction of the Quadrant system, the Miami win and Louisville win (if they get to the top 50) should be the same as a top 25 home win. So while it might not have the glitz and glamour that those 3 top 25 wins did, it should be viewed similar to the committee. Oh, we also have 3 games left vs. top 10 RPI teams, 2 on the road.
I hate comparing years, but last year USC got in with 2 top 50 wins - but they had an RPI of 40, non-conf RPI of 9, SOS of 75 and non-conf SOS of 140 while finishing 6-5 on the road. Wake had 3 top 50 wins but RPI of 39 and SOS of 21/15 while going 6-8 on the road. Our resume compares much better to those "last 4 in" teams last year than it does to ours - which is obviously a good thing.
The metrics are on our side, we won't have anymore bad losses (BC is still top 100 RPI and it's on the road) assuming we don't lose Day 1 of the ACCT. I feel pretty confident that 2 more regular season wins will be enough.
