We should jump Texas, Iowa, and Utah for sure. That gets us to 16, which is the worst-case scenario to me. I think we jump at least 2/3 of Mississippi State, Penn State and Florida, but it's hard to say. That's a really bad loss for Florida, but how far will they drop them?
Also, FWIW, even if we don't pass any of those three teams *now*, we should pass them all if we win out... unless Miss St beats Alabama, which isn't very likely. If we win out and Penn State and Florida win out, we'd be adding higher quality wins.
So this week we go to like somewhere in the range of #16 to #13. If we win next week, the only tough matchups for teams ahead of us are Ohio State @ Michigan State and Georgia vs Auburn. Maybe we catch a break and someone is an upset victim and we can move up to the range of like #15 to #10.
The following week is where we can make a big move, as a win over a top-5 Notre Dame team would probably move us up a couple spots regardless of what happens elsewhere. But we'd still be behind ND, and we'd still need some help. I think the following week, a win might move us ahead of the loser in WV/Oklahoma, and maayyyyybe the loser in Michigan/Ohio State. So now we're in the range of #6-#8 without anything crazy happening.
The problem is, as others have pointed out, those last few spots are the toughest to move up. We'd need most teams ahead of us to lose AT LEAST twice, not once. In some cases, three times. I think ND losing at USC would be critical, for example.
So basically, this week was fun because we just had to win and have any of like 10-12 teams lose - and we got a lot of luck in that department. As it gets toward the last two weeks, we need the exact right parlay to happen. This is why our odds of finishing 6th-10th are pretty good, but our odds of making the playoff are still extremely low - even if we win out.
But damn if it isn't going to be insanely fun if we keep winning.