Pete Thamel On State of SU Football

[Finwad32]

Rutgers director of recruiting and similar titles make about $100k. Rutgers recruiting support staff budget is almost 2 million annually

Money well spent.

 

[tipphill]

Orange in a squeeze

Syracuse’s Dino Babers made his name as a head coach for being a nemesis to Clemson at a time when few in the ACC could muster much resistance.

In 2017, Syracuse stunned No. 2 Clemson in the Carrier Dome on a Friday night, Clemson’s last ACC loss. In 2018, Syracuse nearly pulled an upset at No. 3 Clemson, as Tigers backup Chase Brice needed a 94-yard scoring drive to win the game in the final minute. That Syracuse team went on to win 10 games, the lone winning season in Babers’ five years in Syracuse.

This week, Syracuse heads to Clemson with its program in the fetal position. Beset by opt-outs and injuries and fresh off a blowout home loss to Liberty, Syracuse is bracing for an ugly Saturday on the road against the No. 1 team in the country next week.

Syracuse’s season has been a perfect storm of misery. The Orange are down to seven scholarship offensive linemen, including a converted fullback, and is playing its fifth-string tailback and backup quarterback. The Orange’s best defensive player, Andre Cisco, got injured in warmups before the Georgia Tech game and has opted out for the season.

Don’t expect Babers’ job to be in jeopardy. He has four full years remaining on his contract this year, and the most conservative estimates of his buyout are that he’d be owed at least $17 million if he was fired after this season. That number would scare a well-heeled SEC athletic department, and Syracuse is decidedly not one of those.

What can Syracuse do? Support Babers’ weaknesses. One of the issues at Syracuse is that athletic director John Wildhack has no experience overseeing a major college football program, so there’s no leadership with an idea about structure, staffing and how to out-maneuver conference peers in more ideal recruiting bases.

Recruiting has never been the heartbeat of Babers’ coaching arsenal. While he has the charisma and charm to connect, coaches and analysts in the Northeast would not rate Babers’ recruiting metabolism with coaches like BC’s Jeff Hafley, Rutgers’ Greg Schiano or Penn State’s James Franklin.

Syracuse’s recruiting staff is one of the least sophisticated in the ACC, as Babers’ longtime assistant Roy Wittke is the new director of player personnel. Places like BC, Wake Forest and Rutgers – the schools Syracuse needs to beat — have invested in sophisticated operations. The Orange are lagging behind.

The most glaring evidence of the recruiting deficiencies is the lack of talent in Syracuse’s quarterback room, as Babers has yet to recruit and develop a proven ACC-level starter, and the lack of depth in that room has always been glaringly thin. He inherited Eric Dungey, and injured redshirt junior quarterback Tommy DeVito has yet to live up to his billing.

Babers is speeding toward his fourth losing seasons in five years. There’s a clear talent deficiency that’s glaring. Syracuse and Babers are contractually in lockstep for a while. To compete in the ACC, they need to start recruiting like an ACC school.

lack of investment in recruiting operations. what does that specifically mean???

 

[tipphill]

Thamel clearly doesn’t have sources inside the SU AD anymore.
Dr. Gross would personally leak to Thamel.
It’s how he broke the news we were joining the ACC in 2011 on The NY Times site the Friday night before it went public on Saturday.


Thamel doesn’t get that fundraising has been remarkable during this pandemic and we have our best recruiting class under Dino this cycle.
What is his problem.

what our problem????

 

[cuse10]

There are 130 FBS teams. If we are the 65th best team next year we legit could get to 7-8 wins given how weak our schedule is. Is being the exact middle of the pack nationally asking that much? BTW even with the disaster that was last year we were the 63rd best FBS team according to Sagarin.

They were within winning a couple of those games even with how poorly the offense performed. With everything that went wrong in Raleigh, they still could have beat NC State. Presume they win against Wake Forest, they'd have been a 6-6 team. They were bad, but they were a lot better than this year's team namely at LB, WR and DL.

 

[Jack_Ball]

Coaching carousel: Who are the top young coaches to watch in college football?

Which coaches are due for an upgrade? Pete Thamel runs through his list of the top Group of Five coaches you may see roaming a more prominent sideline next season.

sports.yahoo.com

I would have this list ready for next year...

You have to try for Fickell, Harsin and Huepel...Then I'd go for Candle, Leipold & maybe Lewis?

 

[GoSU96]

Look gang, in a normal year this roster is not a 1-10 roster, it just isn't.

Normal schedule, average health, this would be a .500 squad at worst. Probably two or three games better than last year. Development and better depth on the OL would have equaled better efficiency, which would have at a minimum led to more offensive snaps, less defensive possessions and less wear on those guys.

The opposite happened and the roster is shattered. The infection is spreading which is leading to general organ failure. This program isn't to a point where it is resilient enough to fight off everything it has had to deal with this year, just a bad time to hit coaching reset and have a youth movement.

Kids need to hang in there, take their beatings this year, build up the experience and scare tissue, and convert it into a goal that this never happens again.

If they can get a cycle of strength and conditioning, a normal spring and summer off-season, and reasonable health I think next year can be a very good year.

 

[Alsacs]

They were within winning a couple of those games even with how poorly the offense performed. With everything that went wrong in Raleigh, they still could have beat NC State. Presume they win against Wake Forest, they'd have been a 6-6 team. They were bad, but they were a lot better than this year's team namely at LB, WR and DL.

If we go 6-6 the Heat is completely off Dino and this season is washed away.
He would have 2 bowl seasons in his first 4 years and a pandemic destroyed year 5.

We didn’t go 6-6 last year so he has 1 bowl season in his first 4 years that is unacceptable. Then a clusterbleep of a season 5 and not much reason to feel we will get to 6 wins in year 6.

We should get to a bowl atleast every other year.

 

[richmondcuse03]

If we go 6-6 the Heat is completely off Dino and this season is washed away.
He would have 2 bowl seasons in his first 4 years and a pandemic destroyed year 5.

We didn’t go 6-6 last year so he has 1 bowl season in his first 4 years that is unacceptable. Then a clusterbleep of a season 5 and not much reason to feel we will get to 6 wins in year 6.

We should get to a bowl atleast every other year.

I'm more annoyed about last year than this year so I get that and understand it. We should have won 6 last year.
This year -- as GoSu96 pointed out is a freak year due to the injuries and pandemic. I have much higher expectations for a return to normal next year. 6/7 wins should be the goal. If he underachieves, I get the frustration then. But I ain't buying pitchforks right now. We need to be a little more patient given what's happened this year.

 

[nzm136]

Rutgers director of recruiting and similar titles make about $100k. Rutgers recruiting support staff budget is almost 2 million annually

Thanks for the info!

We spend about $28 MM on football, presumably $5 MM of which is on scholarships, thereby leaving ~$23 MM for real (marginal) costs +/- accounting definitions. The team “makes” $44 MM, +/- accounting definitions. I’m guessing we spend about $700K on salaries (~1/3rd of RU). The athletic dept. jumped by about ~$5 MM in revenue between ‘17 and our year in football ‘18. I’m not sure how much of that was football-driven and whether donations were included. But I have to think the revenue is elastic and a product of what we put on the field.

Imagine 1-2 more true playmakers (or at least significant contributors) in every class. That’s the difference between having a stud on DL, a backup QB, another solid guy on the OL, a stud WR, and a solid RB (although our RB issue arguably isn’t recruiting). Those positions could be the difference between 1-4 and 3-2 (if not better).

IMHO, this story is a good one - or at least one that can give hope. We have a known problem with what at least I think is a reliable and easy solution. I wonder why we haven’t fixed it yet. (There’s absolutely no way the admin hasn’t done the math on it and/or didn’t know the problem existed.)

 

[Cuse69]

Coaching carousel: Who are the top young coaches to watch in college football?

Which coaches are due for an upgrade? Pete Thamel runs through his list of the top Group of Five coaches you may see roaming a more prominent sideline next season.

sports.yahoo.com

I would have this list ready for next year...

You have to try for Fickell, Harsin and Huepel...Then I'd go for Candle, Leipold & maybe Lewis?

Sean lewis will never be head coach here and if somehow it happens it won't be due to a babers firing or some success in the Mac, UCF fans are calling for huepels head lol, fickell isn't leaving cincy for us, I'd love harsin but he'd definitely turned down offers and won't be cheap.
I've been saying graham harrell the usc OC, he interviewed for the UNLV job which was paying less than 2 million, look at UNT before and after him, same with USC, the man know how to coach an offense.

For anyone afraid a young coach will come have success and leave wouldn't you rather have that then us firing someone every 4 ish years, if they leave us for a better job it would mean they did a good job here and another decent hire keeps that going.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Sean lewis will never be head coach here and if somehow it happens it won't be due to a babers firing or some success in the Mac, UCF fans are calling for huepels head lol, fickell isn't leaving cincy for us, I'd love harsin but he'd definitely turned down offers and won't be cheap.
I've been saying graham harrell the usc OC, he interviewed for the UNLV job which was paying less than 2 million, look at UNT before and after him, same with USC, the man know how to coach an offense.

For anyone afraid a young coach will come have success and leave wouldn't you rather have that then us firing someone every 4 ish years, if they leave us for a better job it would mean they did a good job here and another decent hire keeps that going.

That is not what it means. Look at Babers as an example. He left Bowling Green with a bare cupboard. Had he left here after 2018 it would have been the same. Having a HC whose goal is to get out fast means he doesn't care about recruiting kids who will help the next coach nor developing them. We need a HC who wants to build a solid foundation. Then should he leave for greener pastures we have something for the next guy to work with. The hotshot kid will not be that guy.

All that being said Babers will have to total the bed to be gone.

 

[PatMark]

Thanks for the info!

We spend about $28 MM on football, presumably $5 MM of which is on scholarships, thereby leaving ~$23 MM for real (marginal) costs +/- accounting definitions. The team “makes” $44 MM, +/- accounting definitions. I’m guessing we spend about $700K on salaries (~1/3rd of RU). The athletic dept. jumped by about ~$5 MM in revenue between ‘17 and our year in football ‘18. I’m not sure how much of that was football-driven and whether donations were included. But I have to think the revenue is elastic and a product of what we put on the field.

Imagine 1-2 more true playmakers (or at least significant contributors) in every class. That’s the difference between having a stud on DL, a backup QB, another solid guy on the OL, a stud WR, and a solid RB (although our RB issue arguably isn’t recruiting). Those positions could be the difference between 1-4 and 3-2 (if not better).

IMHO, this story is a good one - or at least one that can give hope. We have a known problem with what at least I think is a reliable and easy solution. I wonder why we haven’t fixed it yet. (There’s absolutely no way the admin hasn’t done the math on it and/or didn’t know the problem existed.)

What I will add to this is the fact that this is what you get when you hire a MAC head coach. They aren't necessarily aware of what the big boys are doing to be successful, especially off the field support roles. That's why hires like Hafley and Schiano end up being strong hires from a organization stand point as they have lived in the Ohio State bubble for multiple years. The last time Dino was part of a high level FBS organization was 2011 and things have changed ten fold since then with regards to off the field structure.

 

[JeremyCuse]

That is not what it means. Look at Babers as an example. He left Bowling Green with a bare cupboard. Had he left here after 2018 it would have been the same. Having a HC whose goal is to get out fast means he doesn't care about recruiting kids who will help the next coach nor developing them. We need a HC who wants to build a solid foundation. Then should he leave for greener pastures we have something for the next guy to work with. The hotshot kid will not be that guy.

All that being said Babers will have to total the bed to be gone.

Agreed, barring complete anarchy he will definitely be here next year. That said Thamel's numbers are way off, Babers does not have a 17.5 Mill + buyout, that's a top SEC or B10 level coach amount.

 

[AZOrange]

I think Babers mentioned that there were 58 scholarship athletes available to play. That tells you almost everything you need to know. Barely a full 2-deep

 

[Alsacs]

I think Babers mentioned that there were 58 scholarship athletes available to play. That tells you almost everything you need to know. Barely a full 2-deep

Nobody expects anything special.
Those 58 should be good enough to not be embarrassed at home versus Liberty.

Nor should it prevent players from being more disciplined and more sound on the field.

Babers gave up against Pittsburgh that has nothing to do with bodies available. The team looks checked out I wonder why.

 

[Cuse69]

That is not what it means. Look at Babers as an example. He left Bowling Green with a bare cupboard. Had he left here after 2018 it would have been the same. Having a HC whose goal is to get out fast means he doesn't care about recruiting kids who will help the next coach nor developing them. We need a HC who wants to build a solid foundation. Then should he leave for greener pastures we have something for the next guy to work with. The hotshot kid will not be that guy.

All that being said Babers will have to total the bed to be gone.

Scott frost left UCF pretty full, dave clawson did the same at BGSU which one could argue is the reason dino had success their. How about Scott satterfield, I could name many others.

 

[anomander]

I think people are far over rating this years recruiting class. It may be slightly better compared to other years, but it still trails almost everybody in the ACC, and isn't close to the upper half of the conference. Basically, it's not a recruiting class that is going to make all that much a difference unless the QB turns out to be a stud.

 

[ElwoodJBlues]

Agreed, barring complete anarchy he will definitely be here next year. That said Thamel's numbers are way off, Babers does not have a 17.5 Mill + buyout, that's a top SEC or B10 level coach amount.

I think Thamel is fudging the numbers on the buyout. That’s likely the remainder left on the contract and the buyout would probably be a % of the remaining term (along with a best efforts clause for a future job to mitigate the overall buyout $).

 

[Briancuse]

If we go 6-6 the Heat is completely off Dino and this season is washed away.
He would have 2 bowl seasons in his first 4 years and a pandemic destroyed year 5.

We didn’t go 6-6 last year so he has 1 bowl season in his first 4 years that is unacceptable. Then a clusterbleep of a season 5 and not much reason to feel we will get to 6 wins in year 6.

We should get to a bowl atleast every other year.

I don't agree 6 and 6 is still mediocre. I think it buys him another year and some good will but if we go back to 4 and 8 the next year the hot seat talk is back.

 

[Alsacs]

I

I don't agree 6 and 6 is still mediocre. I think it buys him another year and some good will but if we go back to 4 and 8 the next year the hot seat talk is back.

Your expectations and mine are different.
Dino failed last year because he couldn’t even get us to a bowl.
I expect 6-6 most years.
An occasional 8-4 or better.
A couple of 4-8 or 5-7 seasons.

I don’t expect to be a big player in college football. I just want to be medicore and make bowls every year and mix in a year like 2018 every once in a while. I get the restrictions we have.

 

[Briancuse]

I

Your expectations and mine are different.
Dino failed last year because he couldn’t even get us to a bowl.
I expect 6-6 most years.
An occasional 8-4 or better.
A couple of 4-8 or 5-7 seasons.

I don’t expect to be a big player in college football. I just want to be medicore and make bowls every year and mix in a year like 2018 every once in a while. I get the restrictions we have.

I don't think they are. I expect about the same. In a 5 year span three 6 or 7 win seasons. One 9 or 10 win season and a 3 or 4 win season. Dino has given us the 10 win season problem is the rest have all been losing seasons.

 

[kcsu]

That is not what it means. Look at Babers as an example. He left Bowling Green with a bare cupboard. Had he left here after 2018 it would have been the same. Having a HC whose goal is to get out fast means he doesn't care about recruiting kids who will help the next coach nor developing them. We need a HC who wants to build a solid foundation. Then should he leave for greener pastures we have something for the next guy to work with. The hotshot kid will not be that guy.

All that being said Babers will have to total the bed to be gone.

One more time. Dino thought he was gone after or 10 win season.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Our current class is ranked 12 in the ACC
2020: 10
2019: 11
2018: 10
2017: 11
2016: 12

So much of that is reputation and biases to sell subscriptions.

I think the best measure of a recruiting class is the measurables, seeing the tape and see the other offers the player had.

By that standard, our recruiting has seemed miles ahead of where it was when Dino took over. Under Shafer, we were competing with MAC schools for small undersized and slow defenders. We have been getting guys with big frames, good offer sheets and good speed.

I am of the opinion that our S&C is not "all that", and I think our player development is clearly lacking.
Syracuse hasn't had a good offensive line since George DeLeone was coaching them. It has literally been a generation, save for a couple 8-5 years under Marrone where we could run the ball.

 

[IthacaMatt]

To be impartial and objective, Pete has to mention that Syracuse is having their best recruiting season this year. He should mention they got a QB they are very high on this cycle with Lamson. He could mention that Dino Judy brought Chip West on the staff, an assistant coach with strong recruiting chops. He could have mentioned how Dino has access to a plane for recruiting these days. We have hired more people for recruiting and the budget has been bumped. Lots of improvements have been made.

I know that you follow this at an elite level, but don't you think this year's class is more of a guess at a rating than the last 2 classes?

Very few players got to take 5 official trips, and get all the pampered treatment. Lots of guys visited schools within driving distance, and we locked up offers 2 or 3 months sooner than usual as everybody tried to judge where they fit and lock down their spot before the music stopped playing.

I don't see such great offer sheets for this class, and I understand why.

It seems to me the last 2 classes, with so many great DBs, so many athletic LBs, some really promising RBs; those seemed, objectively, like pretty good classes, especially when you added in some key transfers, some of whom worked out, and some didn't.

But, take Neil Nunn for instance, had a better offer sheet than most of this year's kids, but it's just because of circumstances. Mikel Jones, Lee Kpogba, some of the kids from VA and MD that we've been getting. They all look like ballers.

COVID has made everything weird this year. It's an awful time for the team to be literally falling apart.
But I'm not sold 100% that this is our best class. I thought the last 2 were pretty good. Two years ago, we got TWO freshmen AA's! How often does that happen?

 

[dollarbill44]

One more time. Dino thought he was gone after or 10 win season.

Did he tell you that? Reiterating speculation doesn't make it true.