Random Thoughts about Garwey Dual
First, Dual is an impressive physical specimen. Often, much about a players size, speed and other characteristics is exaggerated or out right fantasy. Every year you hear about another football WR recruit that supposedly runs faster that Bolt but can't get separation from our pedestrian defensive backs.
My reaction is to then discount any claims of great speed, length of arms and athleticism heavily unless through a verified source. Functionally, that means you can't believe anything until the NBA combine measurements, by which time it it too late to evaluate your favorite college team's players. One exception is certain combines or tournaments that take more "official" and verifiable measurements, like the Nike Hoop Summit.
Dual played in the 2023 Nike Hoop Summit. His measurements can be taken with a little less skepticism. Of critical note, Dual was measured shortly after turning 18 years old. His physical measurements are upper end NBA guard. 6'10.5" wingspan and 8'8" standing reach are well above average if he were an NBA player at guard. The funny part is he might even have grown since then, expanding his already elite physical measurements. Oddly, I can't find any verifiable reporting on his raw speed or vertical leaping ability. Those change more with training and growth than his length, which we can be pleased isn't merely a mirage or clever agent marketing.
Dual was ranked 34th by RSCI coming out of high school. He was a great recruiting victory for Providence, and Seton Hall fans were probably really excited to get him as well. One thing to note is that his offer list, while impressive, didn't have the highest of high major teams offering him. I find that curious.
After two years in the Big East, he dropped down to McNeese State, where either:
1) Lower competition allowed him to excel.
or
2) He finally figured everything out and started to harness his physical gifts.
One thing that stood out to me is Dual was playing a tin at Seton Hall and started a bunch of games. It doesn't seem like he was overwhelmed by the competition. Copeland has been brought up regularly in this thread, I wonder if you allCopeland has been brought up regularly in this thread, I wonder if Dual wound up at McNeese state for similar reasons, unrelated to talent.
Dual was born to African immigrants in Houston, so isn't new to basketball like some African players who don't play basketball until they come to the States. In Dual's case, it seems some guys just figure things out later than others.
Statistically, Dual has been compared to Nait George frequently, though they are different players other than playing guard. One thing about Dual's point guard skills is that he is pretty efficient, with a 2.75 A/TO ratio, with only a 17.7 TO% as a junior at McNeese State. By comparison, George was 2.14 at GT as a sophomore and 1.78 for us last year, with a 19.9 and 23.2 TO%.
Dual is much more careful with the ball, which was a major caveat of George's game coming in, and was exacerbated during his time at Syracuse. Dual isn't quite as slick of a passer as George, who looked to be elite at passing the alley oop, but still has a very 28% assist percentage last year, compared to George who topped out at 34% at Georgia Tech.
I think most of us would trade the few extra assists for less turnovers? It looks like GMAC values less turnovers more than slick passing, though Dual has some nice passing highlights as well.
Where they really differ is defensively. One thing that Dual's length helped him with is getting blocks and steals. It isn't unheard of for guards to block shots, but Dual was top20 in blocks his two years in the Big East.
That seems exceptional. Garwey Dual blocks shots at a higher rate than Freeman ever has, for perspective. Similarly, Dual has a 3.7% steal% last season, which would have been the best on our team, led by George at 2.7%.
So the statistical picture of his defense is very good, which is supported by his DBPR (which is competition adjusted per Evan Maya) of 2.5 last year. His two years in the Big East averaged a DBPM of 3.65, probably the drop was because of the SOS adjustment. Only Souare and Kyle had higher DBPM than Dual, which is heavily biased to guys that block shots and get steals. For Dual to be so high might indicate he does a really good job on defense.
Many of his steals are the 'slap the ball away while guarding somebody' variety. He's not sneaking up behind you to take the ball or anticipating passing lanes for steals, or at least they aren't making his highlights reels.
Offensively, Dual seems to have taken a bit of a leap at McNeese state, finishing better at the rim, (TS% .497 -> .548) and marginally improving his assists and turnovers. His 3pt shooting remained poor, and he shot more, up to 2.2 attempts per game. A 31% three-point shooter probably shouldn't take even that many. But, I suspect he had his hands on the ball at the end of many possessions for his mid major team. That leads to bad threes and lower percentage. He is a decent FT shooter, showing dramatic improvement in that area during his career.
Ultimately, there isn't as much video of Dual playing against high major competition as I would like for me to form a strong opinion. He definitely has the athleticism and size to be a very effective player even at the next level. But he hasn't performed that well in live competition through his career.
I tend to agree with those posters who would be concerned if Garwey Dual was brought in to start for us at point guard.
I think he will be a very valuable player in our rotation. His job as a defensive stopper against the best scorer at positions 1-3 from the other team could be a difference maker next season.
Dual should not be our only point guard with his only competition combo cards or unheralded freshman.
