Pitt opens -3.5 over Cuse….

[HRE Otto IV]

Pitt pass defense isn’t that great. I could see this game being a shootout. Redzone efficiency will be important and we’ll need to be mistake free on specials.

If Pitt gets some stops it’s easy to see this game get away from us but then again, the only two teams Pitt had their way with were Kent State and Youngstown State.

Pitt is the same D every year. They will bring pressure but you can exploit it (see every Duke game they used to play). Nationally they are tied for 5th in Sacks per FBS game. It will be a big challenge for us.

On O they are 14th in passing yards per FBS game. So far this year we have played 3 teams 112 or worse, and two teams between 70-75. We have yet to play a team in the Top half of FBS in passing yards per FBS game. Pitt will be a big challenge for us.

 

[PhatOrange]

Pitt is the same D every year. They will bring pressure but you can exploit it (see every Duke game they used to play). Nationally they are tied for 5th in Sacks per FBS game. It will be a big challenge for us.

On O they are 14th in passing yards per FBS game. So far this year we have played 3 teams 112 or worse, and two teams between 70-75. We have yet to play a team in the Top half of FBS in passing yards per FBS game. Pitt will be a big challenge for us.

you guys always worry about us stopping the other team except this year the other team has to worry about stopping us.

their total yard pass defense is ranked # 102. Our passing offense is ranked # 2.

The three teams we’ve played that are 112 or worse is partially because they’ve played us. I believe this is the first time we’ve gone against a pass defense ranked 100 going into the game. This is a huge challenge for their defense.

they average 3 sacks per game. we’ve allowed 2.17. They also give up more sacks at 14 total and 2.33 per game.

this game sort of sets up to be a shootout. No turnovers, convert on third down. Don’t miss any field goals, score touchdowns in the red zone.

 

[texascpa]

you guys always worry about us stopping the other team except this year the other team has to worry about stopping us.

their total yard pass defense is ranked # 102. Our passing offense is ranked # 2.

The three teams we’ve played that are 112 or worse is partially because they’ve played us. I believe this is the first time we’ve gone against a pass defense ranked above 100 going into the game. This is a huge challenge for their defense.

they average 3 sacks per game. we’ve allowed 2.17. They also give up more sacks at 14 total and 2.33 per game.

this game sort of sets up to be a shootout. No turnovers, convert on third down. Don’t miss any field goals, score touchdowns in the red zone.

Thank you for this. We fans seem to focus on stats that look bad for us, rather than look at the good stats or those stats skewed by opponents.

 

[orange_in_VA]

This will be the most pressure we have faced this season so far. Hopefully we can exploit it

 

[Scotch]

DK is the first one out with a line. So basically home field and a hook.

Very respectful to us.

 

[The Viking]

Don't get sucked into thinking the line movement during the week tells any story whatsoever. Bettors HAMMERED the NC State line late last week from -5.5 down to -1.5 Everyone thought it was telling a certain story. They were dead wrong. No one knows anything. Its all just fun to discuss. But lines, movement etc. Its all BS. (Read:NC state last week)

Vegas wants an equal number of bettors on each side if the line. That's why lines move. When more money favors one team, the line changes to get more people betting on the other to equal the money laid down. That way, the bookies grab a no-risk 10% on each game with the majority of betting being flat bets - $110 bet to win $100. Equal # of bettors on each side means "Vegas" or your local bookie grabs that extra 10 bucks (or 10% of whatever is bet) left over from every wager.
There's no other magic or expertise involved other than setting and adjusting lines to ensure an equal number betting on each team. That's all folks.

 

[Scotch]

Vegas wants an equal number of bettors on each side if the line. That's why lines move. When more money favors one team, the line changes to get more people betting on the other to equal the money laid down. That way, the bookies grab a no-risk 10% on each game with the majority of betting being flat bets - $110 bet to win $100. Equal # of bettors on each side means "Vegas" or your local bookie grabs that extra 10 bucks (or 10% of whatever is bet) left over from every wager.
There's no other magic or expertise involved other than setting and adjusting lines to ensure an equal number betting on each team. That's all folks.

This is all basically true, and this explanation gets shared in every betting thread, but there are sharp groups that bookmakers respect that shift lines. You will often hear books say they “need” certain teams during a weekend because while they weren’t able to balance the betting, they don’t want to go too far in one direction and expose themselves to massive risk of a sharp group making a play on a line that’s moved too far.

 

[JustPherU]

Vegas wants an equal number of bettors on each side if the line. That's why lines move. When more money favors one team, the line changes to get more people betting on the other to equal the money laid down. That way, the bookies grab a no-risk 10% on each game with the majority of betting being flat bets - $110 bet to win $100. Equal # of bettors on each side means "Vegas" or your local bookie grabs that extra 10 bucks (or 10% of whatever is bet) left over from every wager.
There's no other magic or expertise involved other than setting and adjusting lines to ensure an equal number betting on each team. That's all folks.

Partially right, but lines lines can move because of other factors

 

[NKR1978]

I don't bet on sports much (last one was 2003 March Madness, SU to win it all at 25-1 odds ), but I thought a tie at end of regulation was a loss on the moneyline bet.

I feel like I've won in OT, but that would still be a push at least.

 

[upperdeck]

It depends on the sport. but soccer ties are usually a loss on ML bets decided after 90min and Fb is usually not.

 

[690West]

Fanduel finally just opened. Pitt -2.5.

Edit: and within 30 minutes it’s up to -3.5

 

[FasterCuse]

Vegas always knows. They must not be as impressed with Pitt’s 6-0 record as some of us on this board. Basically a pick em with home field advantage baked in. I’m taking Cuse ML. This is the game we finally put all 3 phases together for a full 4 quarters. Team learned their lesson coming out flat against Stanford after a bye and won’t let it happen again.

 

[UnknownOrange]

Vegas always knows. They must not be as impressed with Pitt’s 6-0 record as some of us on this board. Basically a pick em with home field advantage baked in. I’m taking Cuse ML. This is the game we finally put all 3 phases together for a full 4 quarters. Team learned their lesson coming out flat against Stanford after a bye and won’t let it happen again.

Vegas does not always know lol nothing against you saying this, but so many people say it and it's just used so nonchalantly. Otherwise they would make SO much more money than they already do

 

[Maisel123!]

Hard to gauge Pitt. They were down 27-6 late 3rd Q to Cincy on the road and came back and won. They were down 34-24 late 4th Q and won at home vs rival WV. They were tied at 24 vs UNC on the road going to the 4th Q and won by 10. Cal missed a go ahead FG with under 2 mins left. They are 4-0 vs the P4 but they could easily have been 0-4.

Before last game their O has looked good especially late in games, while their D has struggled. But the Cal game was the opposite.

I think they are a bad matchup for us on both sides of the ball. There is a chance this could be a typical SU Thursday night game.

I actually think Pitt is overrated. They always play us tough but at 10th on the poll they are likely falling in love with their mirror, never a good habit in football. As a "10th ranked team" playing at home againist an unrated Syracuse, I think they are undererating the Orange. Their games have been close, but the opposite for Syracuse - the scores are much closer than they would be except for really lousy special teams. I'm sure HCFB will take care of that this off-week.

 

[anomander]

This game has shootout written all over it. Hopefully we get Barnes back as a #1 cover corner because we can’t give Hoelstein time and poor coverage that we got away with a couple times vs NCSt. It will help getting a cover guy like Barnes back. Cuse should be able to score. I wouldn’t mind seeing another game dominating the ball control.

 

[GoCuse14]

Vegas always knows. They must not be as impressed with Pitt’s 6-0 record as some of us on this board. Basically a pick em with home field advantage baked in. I’m taking Cuse ML. This is the game we finally put all 3 phases together for a full 4 quarters. Team learned their lesson coming out flat against Stanford after a bye and won’t let it happen again.

Right now Pitt seems to be the closest thing we have to Rival...BC I suppose as well. I have a feeling Fran knows this, as well as our most current history playing them. He will have them ready

 

[rocklloyd]

I don't want to overhype the poor field conditions at that dreadful stadium, but that remains my biggest concern. Even on a nice day, that track runs SLOW.

good because we're slow.

 

[rocklloyd]

Vegas always knows. They must not be as impressed with Pitt’s 6-0 record as some of us on this board. Basically a pick em with home field advantage baked in. I’m taking Cuse ML. This is the game we finally put all 3 phases together for a full 4 quarters. Team learned their lesson coming out flat against Stanford after a bye and won’t let it happen again.

teach me how the moneyline works in simple terms...

 

[690West]

teach me how the moneyline works in simple terms...

You simply have to pick the winner of the game. No spreads.

In most sports it means the winner including overtime. In soccer, there’s typically an option to pick a draw (tie)

For example. If you pick Cuse on the moneyline vs Pitt they simply have to win the game. $100 will pay you $138. If you take cuse to cover the +3.5 spread you’ll bet $110 to win $100.

Moneylines are fun to bet from a viewing experience because you’re simply rooting for a team to win. No worries about covering a point spread

 

[rocklloyd]

You simply have to pick the winner of the game. No spreads.

In most sports it means the winner including overtime. In soccer, there’s typically an option to pick a draw (tie)

For example. If you pick Cuse on the moneyline vs Pitt they simply have to win the game. $100 will pay you $138. If you take cuse to cover the +3.5 spread you’ll bet $110 to win $100.

Moneylines are fun to bet from a viewing experience because you’re simply rooting for a team to win. No worries about covering a point spread

Thank you.

 

[Crusty]

Surprised

Vegas must know the guys on defense will be back.

They knew before we did!

 

[bcubs9497]

Thank you for this. We fans seem to focus on stats that look bad for us, rather than look at the good stats or those stats skewed by opponents.

That’s because, on the whole, we’re suffering from “battered ‘Cuse fan” syndrome =D

 

[The Viking]

Right now Pitt seems to be the closest thing we have to Rival...BC I suppose as well. I have a feeling Fran knows this, as well as our most current history playing them. He will have them ready

I feel the same as you about the rivalry, especially when both team are solid. But I'm afraid Pitt and their fans may not agree. They have the backyard brawl with WVa right? I think they've played over 100 games with Penn St too. BC is probably it for us.

 

[FRANKIEFAN]

Nice +150 ML. Might try and get +170 and hit it before I leave for Germany Saturday.

I got a new phone after dropping mine in the pool in Vegas and some funky old VPN app blocked the 2 sites I tried to use. Is anyone having success hiding their location to be able to bet SU in NY State? I need to figure out how to do this so all the streaming stuff I pay for like Directv and every other service works outside the US as well.

 

[007]

Nice +150 ML. Might try and get +170 and hit it before I leave for Germany Saturday.

Has anyone warned Germany??

Safe travels, Frankie.