Polls for Mar 9: Media #8 / Coaches #7

[ColdAnger]

Agree that RPI is a very poor choice for men’s lacrosse. RPI breaks down in small schedules because it’s a very blunt, variance‑prone metric built on win percentages and opponent chains that simply don’t stabilize over 15-18 games, especially when conferences don’t broadly interact.

RPI is just a weighted average of three things: your winning percentage, your opponents’ winning percentage, and your opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage.

And as DomeHolmes commented, RPI ignores margin, game control, home/road, injuries, and form; a one‑goal 4OT win counts the same as a blowout, and an early‑season result counts the same as a late‑season one. In a short season that magnifies randomness already, throwing away that contextual information makes the ranking even less representative of who’s actually best.

All that said, it is what the NCAA committee uses so the schools have to play the game. It will be interesting to see how RPI differs for Cuse’s gauntlet vs Duke’s cakewalk.

 

[Cuse All-In]

Agree that RPI is a very poor choice for men’s lacrosse. RPI breaks down in small schedules because it’s a very blunt, variance‑prone metric built on win percentages and opponent chains that simply don’t stabilize over 15-18 games, especially when conferences don’t broadly interact.

RPI is just a weighted average of three things: your winning percentage, your opponents’ winning percentage, and your opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage.

And as DomeHolmes commented, RPI ignores margin, game control, home/road, injuries, and form; a one‑goal 4OT win counts the same as a blowout, and an early‑season result counts the same as a late‑season one. In a short season that magnifies randomness already, throwing away that contextual information makes the ranking even less representative of who’s actually best.

All that said, it is what the NCAA committee uses so the schools have to play the game. It will be interesting to see how RPI differs for Cuse’s gauntlet vs Duke’s cakewalk.

I agree!!

While nothing is perfect, I think investment banking analysts should be hired to come up with a better model - I can say from experience that they would definitely improve the product.

 

[DoctahLexus]

Agree that RPI is a very poor choice for men’s lacrosse. RPI breaks down in small schedules because it’s a very blunt, variance‑prone metric built on win percentages and opponent chains that simply don’t stabilize over 15-18 games, especially when conferences don’t broadly interact.

RPI is just a weighted average of three things: your winning percentage, your opponents’ winning percentage, and your opponents’ opponents’ winning percentage.

And as DomeHolmes commented, RPI ignores margin, game control, home/road, injuries, and form; a one‑goal 4OT win counts the same as a blowout, and an early‑season result counts the same as a late‑season one. In a short season that magnifies randomness already, throwing away that contextual information makes the ranking even less representative of who’s actually best.

All that said, it is what the NCAA committee uses so the schools have to play the game. It will be interesting to see how RPI differs for Cuse’s gauntlet vs Duke’s cakewalk.

Overall I think at least ignoring margin, injuries, and the time in the season that the game happens are good things about the current system. Those metrics do not necessarily reveal more about a team either IMO, and coming up with a system that fairly factors in those aspects is more difficult than it may seem. Home vs. road should be considered on some level, but factoring in margin can lead to things like teams adding scrubs they can blow out to their schedules or pouring on goals in garbage time like we see in basketball, and injuries/early season vs late season games are factors that every team has to deal with on some level. There is no perfect system, but the current one is not as broken as some alternatives would be IMO.

RPI looks more absurd this time of year since there are so many games left to play, but by years end it does a decent job.

 

[DomeHolmes]

Overall I think at least ignoring margin, injuries, and the time in the season that the game happens are good things about the current system. Those metrics do not necessarily reveal more about a team either IMO, and coming up with a system that fairly factors in those aspects is more difficult than it may seem. Home vs. road should be considered on some level, but factoring in margin can lead to things like teams adding scrubs they can blow out to their schedules or pouring on goals in garbage time like we see in basketball, and injuries/early season vs late season games are factors that every team has to deal with on some level. There is no perfect system, but the current one is not as broken as some alternatives would be IMO.

RPI looks more absurd this time of year since there are so many games left to play, but by years end it does a decent job.

Agree with most of this but close losses to top teams should be cosidered. Penn loses to 3 top ten teams by 1,2 and 3 points and easily beats the rest and is ranked #36. Maryland loses to to #1,2,3 teams in close games and is #20. Neither are close to accurate.

So close losses to good teams should count for something

 

[Lax Mouse]

Cuse currently at #2 in RPI with 3 top 10 wins (Boston, JHU, St. Joe's). A lot of season left but no other team has more than 1 top 10 win (I think).

 

[Hawknate144]

Cuse currently at #2 in RPI with 3 top 10 wins (Boston, JHU, St. Joe's). A lot of season left but no other team has more than 1 top 10 win (I think).

Yeah, after the PSU UNC game goes final I will be working on my weekly bracket.

Cuse is in a great spot and could easily land a top 3 seed even if they lose 2 or 3 more games this season just because the schedule is that strong.

 

[nocohalo]

I didn't realize how colossally pathetic Duke's schedule is. 45th ranked hardest schedule according to Massey. Best win a 6 goal win against St. Joe's.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Cuse currently at #2 in RPI with 3 top 10 wins (Boston, JHU, St. Joe's). A lot of season left but no other team has more than 1 top 10 win (I think).

All 3 wont hold up for top 10 wins but these wins could really hold up.

BU has Harvard to play but beyond that they could win out. Colgate, Harvard, Loyola, Bucknell, Lafayette and Holy Cross are their remaining games in that order.

St. Joes has Richmond ledt but beyond that they should be favored - Hobart HP, Umess, and Delaware

Hop is a little tricky. I think they should win vs Michigan next week. After that they play Rutty at Rutty, RU had given them problems. Then its PSU which I think is a bad matchup then OSU and Maryland. Really need them to go 3-2 i think to keep that RPI up.

Maryland getting on a run would help as well. Penn is a good team but that schedule is rough even getting to .500 is gonna be a slog.

If your Cuse you have to at barr minimum split the next 2. Denver is a game they really need to win.

 

[JeremyCuse]

I didn't realize how colossally pathetic Duke's schedule is. 45th ranked hardest schedule according to Massey. Best win a 6 goal win against St. Joe's.

Quint has called them out on it a few times. Does pickup with Denver, Cuse, Virginia, Cornell, ND and UNC the last 6. Big jump in comp coming.

 

[Hawknate144]

Yeah, after the PSU UNC game goes final I will be working on my weekly bracket.

Cuse is in a great spot and could easily land a top 3 seed even if they lose 2 or 3 more games this season just because the schedule is that strong.

My predicted Tournament for this week is very drunk, 2 bid Patriot League and a shocking name misses out.

1. Princeton vs Winner of LIU at Sacred Heart
2. Syracuse vs Winner of Jacksonville at Albany
3. Richmond vs Towson
4. UNC vs Georgetown
5. Harvard vs BU
6. Notre Dame vs Ohio State
7. Penn State vs Duke
8. Cornell vs Army

 

[DMVCuseLax]

Penn state loses and Terry acts like it didn't happen. Guys a clown.

 

[DomeHolmes]

My predicted Tournament for this week is very drunk, 2 bid Patriot League and a shocking name misses out.

1. Princeton vs Winner of LIU at Sacred Heart
2. Syracuse vs Winner of Jacksonville at Albany
3. Richmond vs Towson
4. UNC vs Georgetown
5. Harvard vs BU
6. Notre Dame vs Ohio State
7. Penn State vs Duke
8. Cornell vs Army

Looks reasonable. But this requires Army to win the Patriot. Like the last few years, BU, and lack of quality wins, leaves them out otherwise. Also lots of work for PSU to get a seed. Duke hasn’t beaten anyone but I would still swap them and PSU. Just a guess but Cornell/Hop//UMD have better chances for that last spot than Army.

 

[FloridaCuse]

Penn state loses and Terry acts like it didn't happen. Guys a clown.

Then why are we giving him any of our space? It's pollution.

 

[Hawknate144]

Looks reasonable. But this requires Army to win the Patriot. Like the last few years, BU, and lack of quality wins, leaves them out otherwise. Also lots of work for PSU to get a seed. Duke hasn’t beaten anyone but I would still swap them and PSU. Just a guess but Cornell/Hop//UMD have better chances for that last spot than Army.

Yeah, this is true, I contemplated the Patriot Championship game, Maryland and Hop were the first 2 teams out

 

[Lax Mouse]

Yeah, this is true, I contemplated the Patriot Championship game, Maryland and Hop were the first 2 teams out

Good work as always!

I think that last seed is pretty tough to decide ride now. Will probably go to whoever from Cornell/PSU/OSU/Hop/Duke does second best in conference.

Gotta figure the top B10 team will land in either the #6/#7 slot. The only real wrinkle would be Hop going off in conference play (unlikely but possible). They'd probably be pushing for a #5/6 seed if they do.

The loser of the Duke/Cornell game likely ends up on the outside looking in (from a seeding perspective) though of course there's a lot of other factors as well.

Big East probably a one bid league - although Denver (vs Duke & Cuse) and Georgetown ( vs Cuse) both have opportunities left to score big out of conference wins.

Not sure if the Patriot will be a two bid league. They tend to beat themselves up pretty good. Army still has a chance to get a big win vs UNC. BU looking like the favorite now.

 

[Lax Mouse]

Penn state loses and Terry acts like it didn't happen. Guys a clown.

PSU is certainly an enigma but leaving them above Cuse (with only two top-10 losses in his own poll) while forgiving the Nittany Lion's two 20+ losses is a choice and not a good one at that.

MD and Georgetown above Hopkins with their records and performance so far also a head scratcher.

 

[cuselaxss26]

Man cuse needs to really beat denver and gtown along with duke n uva def so can see terry foy struggle to put us in top 5 lol.

 

[cuselaxss26]

he’s clearly going by how his bias goes along with how teams have looked playing not on actual wins n loses.