Postgame Thoughts... Clemson (game 2)

djcon57

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My problem with trying to analyze how and where Kadary would have made a difference is that it ignores how Kadary actually played in some of these games.

For example, in the first UNC game, Kadary was -9 in 8 first half minutes - he checked in with 11:43 to play in the half and SU down 1 point, 16-15 - and he checked out with 3:51 to play in the half and SU trailing by 10, 36-26. Then the team promptly went on a 14-4 run to close out the half (Buddy went into NBA Jam 'on fire' mode) and we went to the locker room tied at 40-all.

JB stuck with the same lineup for the start of the 2nd half - and SU did extend to a 56-51 lead with 11:09 to play with Kadary on the bench the entire time. When JB finally did summon Kadary into the game with 9:13 to play, SU was trailing by 6 points (62-56), but I think I understand why JB stuck with the starters as long as he did - that lineup was +15 over an 11 minute stretch of the game.

We did go on a little mini-run after Kadary entered the game and took a brief lead at 68-67 with 3:21 to play on two free throws by Quincy, but we gave it back and trailed 71-68 when JB subbed Joe back in for Kadary with 2:04 to play. Ultimately, it was a couple of Carolina offensive rebounds late, plus Quincy fouling out that was the difference that night. For the game, Kadary was -7 total in 16 minutes on the court.

I love Kadary and I'm happy that he has gotten more minutes as the season has progressed. Please don't misinterpret this post as some sort of Kadary-bashing. But I generally disagree with the simplistic analysis that "if only JB had played Kadary more, we definitely would have won more games". I think that a deeper game-by-game analysis shows that this isn't necessarily true.

If we end up on the wrong side of the bubble, I think it's going to be the collapse against Pitt that we all look back on as the one that hurt the most. And I don't think that loss can be pinned on how many minutes JB did or did not give to Kadary, either.

I’ll give you a specific example from this game...while acknowledging that the starters had a good first half

Joe starts the 2nd half, game goes from tied to -6, the defense gives up 22 points in 11 mins.

Kadary comes in as you stated, UNC proceeds to score 9 points in the next 7 mins. I simply believe his importance to the team defense is/was too important to leave on the bench.

Also...just for reference, the box plus minus isn’t a basic plus minus
 

upperdeck

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this all assumes that we dont lose any games by flipping the minutes either. maybe we lose a couple of those close early wins with a FR making mistakes..
 

djcon57

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this all assumes that we dont lose any games by flipping the minutes either. maybe we lose a couple of those close early wins with a FR making mistakes..

What specific games...that doesn’t follow the numbers we see. Kadary played in the games.
 

upperdeck

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he played
18 vs clemson and we won
15 vs BC and we won
16 vs nc st
15 vs VT
6 vs Gtown
9 min vs byrant
18 vs NE

So the assumption is that if he played more we might win 2-3 more of the games we lost, All assumes he playes well in those games.. But we also won some games he played very little, Maybe he plays 10 more minutes and we lose those 3-5 pt games.

its all what if.. Its not like he played lights out every night. He also has been dinged up quite a bit if he plays more he might end up not playing in a few games with those injuries.. We know JB mentioned he had issues but we pretty assume lack of playing time is coach being coach.. He might not have been able to give us more.
 

djcon57

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he played
18 vs clemson and we won
15 vs BC and we won
16 vs nc st
15 vs VT
6 vs Gtown
9 min vs byrant
18 vs NE

So the assumption is that if he played more we might win 2-3 more of the games we lost, All assumes he playes well in those games.. But we also won some games he played very little, Maybe he plays 10 more minutes and we lose those 3-5 pt games.

its all what if.. Its not like he played lights out every night. He also has been dinged up quite a bit if he plays more he might end up not playing in a few games with those injuries.. We know JB mentioned he had issues but we pretty assume lack of playing time is coach being coach.. He might not have been able to give us more.
You are avoiding my question. What specific games would we have lost
 

upperdeck

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You are avoiding my question. What specific games would we have lost
isnt that what i just listed? games he played little and we won close games. you cant list close games we lost wothout wondering what happens in close games we won.. Are we denying he is playing better now then at the beginning?
 

djcon57

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isnt that what i just listed? games he played little and we won close games. you cant list close games we lost wothout wondering what happens in close games we won.. Are we denying he is playing better now then at the beginning?

I’m not sure you are getting what im saying... he played in the games. We know what he did. We can see the numbers. there’s no wondering. the question is whether expanding the time would have expanded those numbers across those mins. I think they would have, some don’t...and that’s fine. But it is a valid question. Unlike Jesse for example, who didn’t play, and we don’t know if he would have played well or ate it. That’s up to JBs word

For your example, Georgetown is the obvious one where he only played 6 mins and didn’t do well in his limited time.
 

djcon57

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Any response to this would be speculation as are most what if's

well yeah, But I’m not the one who brought up the hypothesis. I wanted to see what numbers he was basing his comments off of
 

malpearl31

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I’ll give you a specific example from this game...while acknowledging that the starters had a good first half

Joe starts the 2nd half, game goes from tied to -6, the defense gives up 22 points in 11 mins.

Kadary comes in as you stated, UNC proceeds to score 9 points in the next 7 mins. I simply believe his importance to the team defense is/was too important to leave on the bench.

Also...just for reference, the box plus minus isn’t a basic plus minus
Actually, UNC ran off 9 quick points in just over two minutes to start the 2nd half back on 1/12, but then SU went on a 16-2 run over the next 6 minutes with Joe in the game and Kadary still sitting. But then when Carolina went on their own 11-0 run (keyed by some bad, live-ball turnovers from both Joe and Buddy) JB made the switch to Kadary - which did stabilize the defense as you said. (That was actually a pretty crazy game of back-and-forth runs...)

My point is that the UNC game is a poor example of "JB mis-managed the minutes and cost Syracuse a W", which is the basic narrative that Matt Gutierrez was feeding with his tweets earlier this week. And I don't think that many (any?) of our other losses really fit well into that narrative, either.

And, yes - I do understand the difference between the box plus minus and the basic plus minus - but in this case, I thought that the fact that Kadary was -9 in the basic plus minus in the first half was pretty relevant to the discussion. And I don't know of a way to break out the box plus minus statistic into a first half number and a second half number. If there's a way to get that data, I'd love to see it.
 

Nicknack

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One thing all these numbers don’t account for as much, is how the game changes depending on if you’re winning or losing.

Perhaps some of those other games would’ve went differently if we weren’t down 10, 5 minutes into the game.

Maybe some of those games don’t get away from us if we don’t have to desperately go to the trunk monkey because we’re down double digits...a deficit that was mostly built in the first few minutes of the game.
EXACTLY which is why it absolutely matters who starts. The whole Dion thing coming off the bench has clouded some people's vision on the importance of putting your best players on the court at the beginning of games and the second half.
 

djcon57

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Actually, UNC ran off 9 quick points in just over two minutes to start the 2nd half back on 1/12, but then SU went on a 16-2 run over the next 6 minutes with Joe in the game and Kadary still sitting. But then when Carolina went on their own 11-0 run (keyed by some bad, live-ball turnovers from both Joe and Buddy) JB made the switch to Kadary - which did stabilize the defense as you said. (That was actually a pretty crazy game of back-and-forth runs...)

My point is that the UNC game is a poor example of "JB mis-managed the minutes and cost Syracuse a W", which is the basic narrative that Matt Gutierrez was feeding with his tweets earlier this week. And I don't think that many (any?) of our other losses really fit well into that narrative, either.

And, yes - I do understand the difference between the box plus minus and the basic plus minus - but in this case, I thought that the fact that Kadary was -9 in the basic plus minus in the first half was pretty relevant to the discussion. And I don't know of a way to break out the box plus minus statistic into a first half number and a second half number. If there's a way to get that data, I'd love to see it.
Good stuff...I don’t think the way Matt stated it was smart either, fwiw. It was a statement. But twitter doesn’t really allow for great analysis on something like that

I do think it’s a legitimate question though.
 

OrangeDW

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EXACTLY which is why it absolutely matters who starts. The whole Dion thing coming off the bench has clouded some people's vision on the importance of putting your best players on the court at the beginning of games and the second half.

Agreed. The Dion thing didn’t matter as much because that team was loaded. Triche and Scoop were a solid starting backcourt as is. We weren’t getting in holes with a group that doesn’t fit well together.
 

Capt. Tuttle

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The program was fine before him. He has had an amazing career and deserves to be in the HOF. Lets hope he has a strong finish and leaves the program in as good a shape as Roy left it.
Of course, the question would be what was the state of the program before he became an assistant.
 

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