Postgame Thoughts... Clemson (game 2)

[upperdeck]

You are avoiding my question. What specific games would we have lost

isnt that what i just listed? games he played little and we won close games. you cant list close games we lost wothout wondering what happens in close games we won.. Are we denying he is playing better now then at the beginning?

 

[djcon57]

isnt that what i just listed? games he played little and we won close games. you cant list close games we lost wothout wondering what happens in close games we won.. Are we denying he is playing better now then at the beginning?

I’m not sure you are getting what im saying... he played in the games. We know what he did. We can see the numbers. there’s no wondering. the question is whether expanding the time would have expanded those numbers across those mins. I think they would have, some don’t...and that’s fine. But it is a valid question. Unlike Jesse for example, who didn’t play, and we don’t know if he would have played well or ate it. That’s up to JBs word

For your example, Georgetown is the obvious one where he only played 6 mins and didn’t do well in his limited time.

 

[orangedave]

You are avoiding my question. What specific games would we have lost

Any response to this would be speculation as are most what if's

 

[djcon57]

Any response to this would be speculation as are most what if's

well yeah, But I’m not the one who brought up the hypothesis. I wanted to see what numbers he was basing his comments off of

 

[malpearl31]

I’ll give you a specific example from this game...while acknowledging that the starters had a good first half

Joe starts the 2nd half, game goes from tied to -6, the defense gives up 22 points in 11 mins.

Kadary comes in as you stated, UNC proceeds to score 9 points in the next 7 mins. I simply believe his importance to the team defense is/was too important to leave on the bench.

Also...just for reference, the box plus minus isn’t a basic plus minus

Actually, UNC ran off 9 quick points in just over two minutes to start the 2nd half back on 1/12, but then SU went on a 16-2 run over the next 6 minutes with Joe in the game and Kadary still sitting. But then when Carolina went on their own 11-0 run (keyed by some bad, live-ball turnovers from both Joe and Buddy) JB made the switch to Kadary - which did stabilize the defense as you said. (That was actually a pretty crazy game of back-and-forth runs...)

My point is that the UNC game is a poor example of "JB mis-managed the minutes and cost Syracuse a W", which is the basic narrative that Matt Gutierrez was feeding with his tweets earlier this week. And I don't think that many (any?) of our other losses really fit well into that narrative, either.

And, yes - I do understand the difference between the box plus minus and the basic plus minus - but in this case, I thought that the fact that Kadary was -9 in the basic plus minus in the first half was pretty relevant to the discussion. And I don't know of a way to break out the box plus minus statistic into a first half number and a second half number. If there's a way to get that data, I'd love to see it.

 

[Nicknack]

One thing all these numbers don’t account for as much, is how the game changes depending on if you’re winning or losing.

Perhaps some of those other games would’ve went differently if we weren’t down 10, 5 minutes into the game.

Maybe some of those games don’t get away from us if we don’t have to desperately go to the trunk monkey because we’re down double digits...a deficit that was mostly built in the first few minutes of the game.

EXACTLY which is why it absolutely matters who starts. The whole Dion thing coming off the bench has clouded some people's vision on the importance of putting your best players on the court at the beginning of games and the second half.

 

[djcon57]

Actually, UNC ran off 9 quick points in just over two minutes to start the 2nd half back on 1/12, but then SU went on a 16-2 run over the next 6 minutes with Joe in the game and Kadary still sitting. But then when Carolina went on their own 11-0 run (keyed by some bad, live-ball turnovers from both Joe and Buddy) JB made the switch to Kadary - which did stabilize the defense as you said. (That was actually a pretty crazy game of back-and-forth runs...)

My point is that the UNC game is a poor example of "JB mis-managed the minutes and cost Syracuse a W", which is the basic narrative that Matt Gutierrez was feeding with his tweets earlier this week. And I don't think that many (any?) of our other losses really fit well into that narrative, either.

And, yes - I do understand the difference between the box plus minus and the basic plus minus - but in this case, I thought that the fact that Kadary was -9 in the basic plus minus in the first half was pretty relevant to the discussion. And I don't know of a way to break out the box plus minus statistic into a first half number and a second half number. If there's a way to get that data, I'd love to see it.

Good stuff...I don’t think the way Matt stated it was smart either, fwiw. It was a statement. But twitter doesn’t really allow for great analysis on something like that

I do think it’s a legitimate question though.

 

[OrangeDW]

EXACTLY which is why it absolutely matters who starts. The whole Dion thing coming off the bench has clouded some people's vision on the importance of putting your best players on the court at the beginning of games and the second half.

Agreed. The Dion thing didn’t matter as much because that team was loaded. Triche and Scoop were a solid starting backcourt as is. We weren’t getting in holes with a group that doesn’t fit well together.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

The program was fine before him. He has had an amazing career and deserves to be in the HOF. Lets hope he has a strong finish and leaves the program in as good a shape as Roy left it.

Of course, the question would be what was the state of the program before he became an assistant.