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A quick look at Virginia Tech's numbers reveal some things that might scare you as a Syracuse fan. Here are a few of them:
They are number one in the ACC in three point shooting, hitting what is quite frankly an amazing 42.5% from three as a team.
Its not just one player you have to worry about shooting from deep. They have FIVE guys shooting over 40% from three this year.
Their leading scorer is Jarell Eddie who is a 6'7 forward who is shooting 47% from three, and there are not many ways to stop a 6'7 player who is hot from the outside.
They have what is statistically a very good defense, to go along with their good shooting. They are holding their opposition to 38% shooting from the floor this year.
They are a much better team at home than they are on the road. They have won almost 60% of their ACC home games, despite being a losing team overall.
Virginia Tech is one of the few teams who is taller than Syracuse. Their starting line up goes 6'5, 6'4, 6'7, 6'8, 6'10.
Virginia Tech's last game was on 12/31. This is the biggest game of their season and they have had a full week to prepare for Syracuse's zone.
Did I scare you?
Well, here is the other side of that argument.
Virginia Tech is a great shooting team, and they are big, but they are extremely unathletic. They are not going to score much inside the three point line, and they are very vulnerable against the press. After watching them play it does not surprise me at all that VCU beat them by 30.
While they have very good defensive numbers overall, the two best teams they have played this year (Michigan State, and VCU) both absolutely torched them scoring 96 and 82 points respectively in two blow out wins. From what I saw, Virginia Tech's defense is not very good at all, and their good numbers are the product of being a tall team playing a lot of mid-majors.
Virginia Tech is only 8-5 with losses to USC Upstate (whoever that is?), Michigan State (by 19), Seton Hall, VCU (by 30), and UNC Greensboro.
While they have five guys who can really shoot it from deep, they are probably not going to have any more than three on the court at one time. Not too many to cover, especially since they don't have anybody who is a huge scoring threat from inside.
Virginia Tech is only getting 2.9 steals per game this year (compare that to Syracuse's 9.7). They are terrible at forcing turnovers. Add that to Syracuse's ability to protect the ball, and you can be assured that Syracuse is going to get a shot just about every time down the court, and almost as importantly when they miss they will have a great chance at an offensive rebound.
Yes, Virginia Tech has enjoyed a longer than usual time to prepare for Syracuse, but there is a fine line between being prepared and being rusty. From what I understand a few of their players have not been able to practice because of the flu, and if they happen to come out rusty (or really anything other than red hot) from deep this game could get out of control quickly.
What you are going to see:
Virginia Tech is going to play a pretty standard man to man defense, with few wrinkles.
On offense my guess is that they are going to put 6'8 forward Marshall Wood, and 6'8 forward CJ Barksdale in the high post the zone most of the time (although they have several guys who could possibly function in this area).
Whoever they put in the high post will have the ability to hit shots, and will need to be covered. Since Syracuse can't leave any of Virginia Tech's three point shooters, it is going to have to surrender wide amounts of space down low.
This will probably lead to a few more rebounds for Virginia Tech than usual, and a few more points for their center Van Zegren than usual, but he is not the type who is going to kill us down low (he's only averaging 4ppg).
If Syracuse does get down, they are going to press Virginia Tech pretty hard, and it could be enough to turn things in around if they are struggling.
Keys to the game:
How does Virginia Tech shoot? If the answer is anything other than “lights out” Syracuse walks to an easy victory.
How does Trevor Cooney shoot? Can Syracuse match Virginia Tech's hot shooting with some of their own?
How does Christmas play? He is going to be on an island down low defensively. Can he handle it? On offense, he will have a chance to continue his improved play. Can he keep it up?
Predictions:
Virginia Tech's lumbering guards struggle to run after Cooney all game. He gets several good looks, like he did against Miami, but this time he drains them.
Christmas continues his hot play with 10 points.
Syracuse uses the press for at least five minutes in this game to throw Virginia Tech off.
Syracuse gets a bunch of offensive rebounds with Grant leading the way and getting most of his points that way.
Gbinije plays a little more than usual, because his length will help defend against Virginia Tech's shooters.
They are number one in the ACC in three point shooting, hitting what is quite frankly an amazing 42.5% from three as a team.
Its not just one player you have to worry about shooting from deep. They have FIVE guys shooting over 40% from three this year.
Their leading scorer is Jarell Eddie who is a 6'7 forward who is shooting 47% from three, and there are not many ways to stop a 6'7 player who is hot from the outside.
They have what is statistically a very good defense, to go along with their good shooting. They are holding their opposition to 38% shooting from the floor this year.
They are a much better team at home than they are on the road. They have won almost 60% of their ACC home games, despite being a losing team overall.
Virginia Tech is one of the few teams who is taller than Syracuse. Their starting line up goes 6'5, 6'4, 6'7, 6'8, 6'10.
Virginia Tech's last game was on 12/31. This is the biggest game of their season and they have had a full week to prepare for Syracuse's zone.
Did I scare you?
Well, here is the other side of that argument.
Virginia Tech is a great shooting team, and they are big, but they are extremely unathletic. They are not going to score much inside the three point line, and they are very vulnerable against the press. After watching them play it does not surprise me at all that VCU beat them by 30.
While they have very good defensive numbers overall, the two best teams they have played this year (Michigan State, and VCU) both absolutely torched them scoring 96 and 82 points respectively in two blow out wins. From what I saw, Virginia Tech's defense is not very good at all, and their good numbers are the product of being a tall team playing a lot of mid-majors.
Virginia Tech is only 8-5 with losses to USC Upstate (whoever that is?), Michigan State (by 19), Seton Hall, VCU (by 30), and UNC Greensboro.
While they have five guys who can really shoot it from deep, they are probably not going to have any more than three on the court at one time. Not too many to cover, especially since they don't have anybody who is a huge scoring threat from inside.
Virginia Tech is only getting 2.9 steals per game this year (compare that to Syracuse's 9.7). They are terrible at forcing turnovers. Add that to Syracuse's ability to protect the ball, and you can be assured that Syracuse is going to get a shot just about every time down the court, and almost as importantly when they miss they will have a great chance at an offensive rebound.
Yes, Virginia Tech has enjoyed a longer than usual time to prepare for Syracuse, but there is a fine line between being prepared and being rusty. From what I understand a few of their players have not been able to practice because of the flu, and if they happen to come out rusty (or really anything other than red hot) from deep this game could get out of control quickly.
What you are going to see:
Virginia Tech is going to play a pretty standard man to man defense, with few wrinkles.
On offense my guess is that they are going to put 6'8 forward Marshall Wood, and 6'8 forward CJ Barksdale in the high post the zone most of the time (although they have several guys who could possibly function in this area).
Whoever they put in the high post will have the ability to hit shots, and will need to be covered. Since Syracuse can't leave any of Virginia Tech's three point shooters, it is going to have to surrender wide amounts of space down low.
This will probably lead to a few more rebounds for Virginia Tech than usual, and a few more points for their center Van Zegren than usual, but he is not the type who is going to kill us down low (he's only averaging 4ppg).
If Syracuse does get down, they are going to press Virginia Tech pretty hard, and it could be enough to turn things in around if they are struggling.
Keys to the game:
How does Virginia Tech shoot? If the answer is anything other than “lights out” Syracuse walks to an easy victory.
How does Trevor Cooney shoot? Can Syracuse match Virginia Tech's hot shooting with some of their own?
How does Christmas play? He is going to be on an island down low defensively. Can he handle it? On offense, he will have a chance to continue his improved play. Can he keep it up?
Predictions:
Virginia Tech's lumbering guards struggle to run after Cooney all game. He gets several good looks, like he did against Miami, but this time he drains them.
Christmas continues his hot play with 10 points.
Syracuse uses the press for at least five minutes in this game to throw Virginia Tech off.
Syracuse gets a bunch of offensive rebounds with Grant leading the way and getting most of his points that way.
Gbinije plays a little more than usual, because his length will help defend against Virginia Tech's shooters.
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