Preakness Stakes 2018

rrlbees

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#2
Justify draws No. 7 post position for Preakness, will be heavy favorite

Justify from the 7 post again. No reason to jump off the J train. Will be hard to make any money short of a big upset which could happen with a sloppy track.

Why it's impossible to pick against Derby winner Justify in the Preakness
It’s going to be impossible to use justify with the short odds he’ll be at. Maybe in a trifecta. I’ll probably just bet Quip WPS and an exacta box with Quip and Good Magic. Maybe do something with Bavazo.
 
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#3

upperdeck

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#4
all the money is on 1 5 7 . most have 7 5 boxes so that wont pay no matter how 3rd turns out betting 20 to win 30 isn't worth it to me. I'm betting against 7. the question is throwing him out and how far out.
 

cliftonparksufan

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#5
all the money is on 1 5 7 . most have 7 5 boxes so that wont pay no matter how 3rd turns out betting 20 to win 30 isn't worth it to me. I'm betting against 7. the question is throwing him out and how far out.
I didn't do a lot of betting in this race. Two tri's: 7,5/6 and 8 and then two supers:7,5,6,8 and 7,5,8,6. Nothing with the one but no reason that he couldn't finish in the money. I hate races like this as you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. I'd rather go narrow than throw my money all over the board.
 

IthacaBarrel

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#6
terrible betting race and terrible betting day with all the rain.

Justify on top/ lone sailor and sporting chance in trifecta. Hoping that good magic throws a dud
 
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upperdeck

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#7
I really think one of the 2 will not finish more likely good magic. if they both get in the mix it will be tough to make money.

it may turn out the best deal is find the #2 horse and play a straight $20 ex.

if i wasnt playing with all the free NYRA money i wouldnt be taking risks, but if both throw a dud and such a small field there will be some covering the bases but not most.
 

upperdeck

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#9
tried to play for money as it didnt pay all that well with the 7 winning.. had the 2-6-8 on top of the 2-6-7- and the 2-6-7-8 under it with the 2-5-6-7-8 4th.. another few jumps and it would have been a solid pay out.. another 1/16 and i think all 3 pass him and it would have been huge..
 

upperdeck

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#10
wont win the belmont but it will take a ton of money . i wonder if the 2-6-8 come back out and play..
 

cliftonparksufan

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#13
I didn't do a lot of betting in this race. Two tri's: 7,5/6 and 8 and then two supers:7,5,6,8 and 7,5,8,6. Nothing with the one but no reason that he couldn't finish in the money. I hate races like this as you are damned if you do and damned if you don't. I'd rather go narrow than throw my money all over the board.
Going narrow hurt me. I had the right 4 horses. Didnt see a Chad Brown interview. Wonder if he is kicking himself on his strategy.
 

Alsacs

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#16
Woot. Had 7 over 1,8 and a tri with 7 over 1,8 over all. Also had a few long shot bets like 1,8 box and 1 WPS and a couple bets with the 5. Profit was about $225.
You meant 7-6-8 I assume.
Good win i know someone had it boxed it as well and won 250ish.
 

rrlbees

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#17
You meant 7-6-8 I assume.
Good win i know someone had it boxed it as well and won 250ish.
No, I meant what I posted. The tri of 7,8,6 was part of my 7 over 1,8 over all bet.
 

upperdeck

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#19
he had the 7 in first. 1,8 in 2nd and all in 3rd.

if the 8 gets up to first he loses and while I am happy for Bees, it cost me a ton of money and the super..
 

rrlbees

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#21
he had the 7 in first. 1,8 in 2nd and all in 3rd.

if the 8 gets up to first he loses and while I am happy for Bees, it cost me a ton of money and the super..
I think another 10-20 yards and 8 does win it.
 

upperdeck

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#22
yeah i had the super and the triple if the 8 gets up and i had if the 6-8 get there and it would have paid even more.. i had the 5 out to if the 2 had gotten that last jump to 4th and then it was really big..
 

IthacaBarrel

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#23
Most interesting thing that I think came out of Preakness was the ride on Good Magic. GM broke sharp and Jose Ortiz went to the lead and challenged Justify from the onset. Obviously, the track was speed favoring all day and Ortiz took a shot to try and win the race.. Ortiz said he tried to take back at the first turn but GM was sharp and was having none of it. After the race the trainer Chad Brown said it wasn't the ride that they had discussed prior and voiced his displeasure, he wanted the horse to sit back and try to close in at the end. Good Magic did all the dirty work and finished 4th while the 2nd and 3rd place horses benefitted greatly from the pace up from set by Good Magic. I think many believed that one of the Lukas trained horses would be out on the lead with Justify given his track record.

I think what will be interesting in the Belmont is a few things, Justify will have to deal with the early speed horses as well as the closers coming at the end given the 1-1/2 mile distance. Should be fun race. The thing that sucks is Audible who rand 3rd in the Derby has many of the same connections as Justify and is a legit contender in the Belmont probably will not run as why would connections want to jeopardize their shot at a triple crown winner with one of their own horses? Kind of an issue in the game right with many of the larger connections owning pieces of many of the best horses.

I liked the ride on Lone Sailor by Irad Ortiz. I will definitely be taking shots to beat Justify in the Belmont
 

rrlbees

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#24
The run I didn’t understand was the one by Quip. He sat right at 4th all the way around and seemed to be in a good place. When they got to the turn coming into the home stretch, he just quit running and finished last.
 

upperdeck

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#25
Before the Derby they mentioned that the Arkansas derby horses were not good.. Turned out with Moon and Quip tanking they were right.. I really wanted to throw quip out but so many liked him Ikept him in. He didnt finish well in several easier races and thats what happened here too. if GM doesnt press the pace then does anyone no one seemed to want to? Perhaps Justify wins easier.

Will any of the horses that run in all 3 have anything left.
 

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