PS Writers Picks

[Millhouse]

Or Pitt. Maybe my numbers are off - but steady improvement on O, with a slight drop off on D gets us to 6-6, 7-5.

Pitt's defense was down last year (68th in yards per play) but yeah, they're usually that type of team that's ok but not great at anything

 

[SoBristol]

Coming off 2014, ending with 5 losses in a row, and with a defense "in transition", you have to expect predictions of 5 - 7 tops. Unproven coaches in key positions on offense. QB who has a lot to prove. No returning RB with better than 300 yds. Manning the DT spots with underclassmen. Secondary is scary. Where can you hang your hat if you see this as a bowl team?

And I still say 6 wins. Hunt's return means that much to the offense. Maybe our secondary will surprise. Maybe we give up points (for sure we will), but put up big numbers of our own.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

Our O/U in Las Vegas is 4.5. If you predict 5-7 you would win. I am saying 6-6 would 1.5 more that is a lot. LV knows what they are doing.
This team going 5-7 would be overachieving and would get SS another year IMO. I have higher expectations but believe SS needs 5 wins and a better offense.

Vegas does set the line to predict the outcome but to predict how people will bet. Where do you think more bets are being placed right now the over or under? It is their job to take public betting perception into account. That public perception is that SU stinks. That line tells me that Vegas thinks SU is a 5 to 6 win team this year. 4-8 would be underachieving and 7-5 overachieving. They aren't going to set the line at 5.5 even if they think that is a fair prediction. By doing so they would end up with a ton of people taking the over and they would be exposed.

They aren't predicting wins and losses but trying to make people pause on taking one side of the bet.

 

[Alsacs]

So much nega ... umm, objectivity. The secondary is young, yes, but the front 7 are solid, and the scheme is known to be good. They have a full 1/2 of the season before the tough stretch. Who's to say they won't grow by then? Overall they shouldn't drop off too much from last year. The O sounds promising, and the new scheme does too. Skill positions are improved, the OL is solid. This O appars capable of averaging around 30 pts. Depth and health are the variables, but predicting even 6-6 seems not unreasonable, yet none of the 4 writers did so. Seems a bit strange.

We averaged 17 PPG last year and without seeing a game think we can average 30PPG. We need to see that before we can expect it. I have watched the Elmhurst games have you? Tell me why we should expect a jump of 13 PPG this year.

 

[Alsacs]

So much nega ... umm, objectivity. The secondary is young, yes, but the front 7 are solid, and the scheme is known to be good. They have a full 1/2 of the season before the tough stretch. Who's to say they won't grow by then? Overall they shouldn't drop off too much from last year. The O sounds promising, and the new scheme does too. Skill positions are improved, the OL is solid. This O appars capable of averaging around 30 pts. Depth and health are the variables, but predicting even 6-6 seems not unreasonable, yet none of the 4 writers did so. Seems a bit strange.

We averaged 17 PPG last year and without seeing a game think we can average 30PPG. We need to see that before we can expect it. I have watched the Elmhurst games have you? Tell me why we should expect a jump of 13 PPG this year.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I think it's perfectly acceptable to predict a 4-5 win season. Probably where we should be or at least a reasonable expectation. Would people be more surprised with 3 or 8 wins? 4 or 7? I would say 4-6 is about the right spot. hence, the 5 win Vegas line

 

[SWC75]

We've had a lot of years where the national predictions were dismal and we said with a smirk "They don't know what we know!", and 'they' were right.

If we do turn out to surprisingly good, I think it will have to do with Hunt suddenly seeing himself surrounded by people who can actually make plays and just getting the ball to them so they can do their thing.

 

[Millhouse]

We've had a lot of years where the national predictions were dismal and we said with a smirk "They don't know what we know!", and 'they' were right.

wisdom of crowds

 

[Alsacs]

Vegas does set the line to predict the outcome but to predict how people will bet. Where to do think more bets are being placed right now the over or under? It is there job to take public betting perception into account. That public perception is that SU stinks. That line tells me that Vegas thinks SU is a 5 to 6 win team this year. 4-8 would be underachieving and 7-5 overachieving. They aren't going to set the line at 5.5 even if they think that is a fair prediction. Vy doing so they would end up with a ton of people taking the over and they would be exposed.

They aren't predicting wins and losses but trying to make people pause on taking one side of the bet.

Sharks would be betting SU heavily if they think we are a 5 to 6 win team since they only need 5 wins to win $.

I think LV thinks we are a 4-8 or 5-7 team. That 4.5 number is the perfect number for a betting line.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

i'm talking myself into it - i'm not going to be getting a torch if they cut him loose.

i think if they got the offense to 75 or 80, that's a big improvement and i can live with another year to see him go from there. offense needs to go upward every year for a couple years, any blips and he's gone.

I think we are setting the bar too low. Part of the drop off in O production from 2012 to 2013 was the loss of key players. Also part of the drop off was playing against conference opponents that we were not familiar with. However part of the drop off was also McDonald. Then the drop off from 2013 to 2014 was McDonald and injuries. So is going from 2014 to 2013 production really an improvement? Isn't that where we should have been without the injuries? And if McDonald is so bad shouldn't we expect better production than 2013? Being 5 to 10 spots better than McDonald isn't much of an improvement.

 

[Millhouse]

I think we are setting the bar too low. Part of the drop off in O production from 2012 to 2013 was the loss of key players. Also part of the drop off was playing against conference opponents that we were not familiar with. However part of the drop off was also McDonald. Then the drop off from 2013 to 2014 was McDonald and injuries. So is going from 2014 to 2013 production really an improvement? Isn't that where we should have been without the injuries? And if McDonald is so bad shouldn't we expect better production than 2013? Being 5 to 10 spots better than McDonald isn't much of an improvement.

75 isn't 5-10 spots better than mcdonald

last year we were 111th in yards per play

even with injuries, mcf*ckit, whatever, 36 spots is a big jump

 

[K Otto XLIV]

75 isn't 5-10 spots better than mcdonald

last year we were 111th in yards per play

even with injuries, mcf*ckit, whatever, 36 spots is a big jump

Ok you are talking YPP? I thought you were talking total O. McDonald had us at 86th in total O for 2013. If Lester is better than McDonald I would expect him to have no problem getting SU to 75-80 in total O. Using YPP moving into the mdi 80s would be a huge jump vs 2013.

 

[TheCusian]

75 isn't 5-10 spots better than mcdonald

last year we were 111th in yards per play

even with injuries, mcf*ckit, whatever, 36 spots is a big jump

I think that's the golden question. Just how much damage did the injuries/mcit stuff do vs how good a healthy team / Lester is.

 

[PhatOrange]

Sorry... my annoyance was more on Baileys 4-8 prediction. I guess I just don't see only 4 wins.

Bailey’s a doofus and doesn’t know anything about football. It’s evident in the dumb articles he writes. So I wouldn’t worry about it.

Here’s the way I look at it based on the head to head results of the last 2 years (and what transpired during those games; ie stats, yardage, flukey plays, turnovers, special teams etc.)

Here’s what I think :

You have to pencil in these 3 as wins: URI, CMU and Wake (these are 3 games there’s no excuse to lose)

These 3 should be penciled as losses: Florida State, LSU and Clemson

This means 3-3 out of the gate.

Every other game in my opinion is a toss up game. Either team could win or lose. In parens is Shafer’s record against them:

BC (1-1 game at home)

Pitt (0-2 game at home)

NC State (1-1 game on the road)

UVA (0-0)

LVille (0-1); the 2012 SU team beat LVille 45-26. @LVille this is the team that leans more towards losing the game than winning but LVille has question marks. We're coming off away at FSU, but LVille could be beat up by this time as well and having 4/5 losses of their own.

South Florida (0-0 on the road they’re the same level as us; this is my KEY game for the season)

Syracuse could go anywhere from 3-9 to 9-3. A wide prediction but how could any of those 6 toss up games be penciled in as losses or wins right now. IMO Syracuse is capable of beating them all. They won't but they're all pretty even teams.

 

[K Otto XLIV]

I think that's the golden question. Just how much damage did the injuries/mc. . . . it stuff do vs how good a healthy team / Lester is.

I think we should expect at least 2013 production. Anything less is unacceptable. We have a SR QB who is a 3 year starter. We basically have 4 returning starters on the OL, three of whom are 3 year starters. We have our most talented WRs in years. The only question is at RB, which I am sure one of the guys can step up.

With an easier schedule vs 2013 should we not expect at least similar production?

PPG 22.7
YPG 376.8
PYPG 181.5
RYPG 195.3

I think the goal should be 27 ppg and 200 yards each in passing and rushing per game. Last year that would have put us at 81st in scoring, 67th in total yards, 90th in passing, and 40th in rushing. IMO those are realistic goals. The further away we are from those goals the less confidence I will have in Lester.

 

[phil77]

i don't think improving the offense is style points. i think it's crazy to can shafer if the offense is ok and the defense is bad. we know the defense won't stay bad

Yes but will the offense stay "OK" without a senior QB.

 

[KaiserUEO]

I think that's the golden question. Just how much damage did the injuries/mc. . . . it stuff do vs how good a healthy team / Lester is.

regardless what everyone is asking/hoping...is basically for lester to be some kind of all time genius.

because we they will need to finish 75th or better to save jobs, maybe even 60th.

and since apparently im the only one cant be objective about things, i will say nothing and stay in missouri on him.

 

[TheCusian]

regardless what everyone is asking/hoping...is basically for lester to be some kind of all time genius.

because we they will need to finish 75th or better to save jobs, maybe even 60th.

and since apparently im the only one cant be objective about things, i will say nothing and stay in missouri on him.

No - I think we're wondering how much damage did injuries and Mcit's system then dismissal do AND how well the Lester system + having a healthier team will impact the offense. It's very much an open question. We won't know for a few weeks or a month.

I have hope and think that it will be enough to get that much improvement. But it's an open question for sure. We'll see.

 

[kcsu]

We should win 3 for sure. I think that the swing games are in order of who we should beat to teams that we might beat. South Florida. Need to win this one. BC at home might make or break us for the bowl just like a few years ago. UVA on the road but we can win this one. Pitt very good talent and a new but good coach will be really tough but again we could upset them. NC state on the road but we could win.

LV Clemson FSU and LSU i just dont see it. So 4-7 wins are possible

 

[Scooch]

you, scooch, i forget who else have talked 5 wins + better offense = good enough for him to stay, i think that's right. there's a little bit of consensus developing here, not for the whole board but for a good number of us

5 wins with good defense and terrible offense gets him fired. i don't know how bad the defense would have to be for me to be concerned at all about shafer's defense going forward - this year's defense almost doesn't matter to me, we know he's fine there even if this year stinks.

I was just trying to put myself in Coyle's shoes (which are probably bigger than mine, admittedly).

I think that if a new AD is doing a risk assessment he might conclude that there might be less damage in employing Shafer a season too long than in firing him a year too early.

I can envision a scenario where SU goes 5-7, sees the D regress statistically from past years but has young players than exhibit potential, sees the O look functional and make a meaningful leap in various statistical rankings, and sees recruiting continue to trend upward. In that scenario I could see Coyle wanting to give Shafer another year, because blowing it all up, again, would risk wasting another 2 years to rebuild right back to where we are.

I'm reserving my judgement on this until we get into the season and we see how this team looks. Wake is critical for me. As is USF.

 

[Briancuse]

Considering we won 3 games last year, and most people are hoping for 6 or 7 this year, I don't think they are off.

 

[cliftonparksufan]

I was just trying to put myself in Coyle's shoes (which are probably bigger than mine, admittedly).

I think that if a new AD is doing a risk assessment he might conclude that there might be less damage in employing Shafer a season too long than in firing him a year too early.

I can envision a scenario where SU goes 5-7, sees the D regress statistically from past years but has young players than exhibit potential, sees the O look functional and make a meaningful leap in various statistical rankings, and sees recruiting continue to trend upward. In that scenario I could see Coyle wanting to give Shafer another year, because blowing it all up, again, would risk wasting another 2 years to rebuild right back to where we are.

I'm reserving my judgement on this until we get into the season and we see how this team looks. Wake is critical for me. As is USF.

A lot depends on if Coyle has a coach in waiting in his back pocket.

 

[Scooch]

A lot depends on if Coyle has a coach in waiting in his back pocket.

Of course. Although I think a lot of that stuff can be overblown sometimes. I have no doubt Coyle has some favorites, or even someone in particular in mind, but the conditions on the ground change so rapidly that who knows how that'll play out 3-4 months from now.

 

[KaiserUEO]

to sum:

when Syracuse loses, which everyone is finally admitting will happen...the hope is that its 35-31...or SS is gone.

 

[Alsacs]

to sum:

when Syracuse loses, which everyone is finally admitting will happen...the hope is that its 35-31...or SS is gone.

I mean 6 wins would be a great season. Unless you have faith in Lester being a genius OC we aren't going to turn around the offense to top 50-60 status.
I have 5-7 we need a good offense or I would move. Hell go read my post after the Louisville game last year I know you agree with it.