Punting on 4th and inches... I don’t get it

[Eric15]

I’m watching KC/Seattle. Seattle has the ball down 10-7 mid 2nd quarter at their own 40. Its 4th and about a foot, and they punted. Why do coaches do this? Russell Wilson lunging forward has to convert this at least 9 times out of 10. Pete Carroll is a brilliant football mind. How is this an intelligent risk/reward, cost/benefit at all?

 

[bpo57]

I thought the same thing when it was happening but ironically it worked to Seattle's benefit. Two plays later KC fumbled deep in their own territory and Seattle took it in for the TD.

 

[AAM62]

Because they were on their own 40. You more likely than not give up a score if you miss. It’s nfl isn’t madden.

 

[Eric15]

Because they were on their own 40. You more likely than not give up a score if you miss. It’s nfl isn’t madden.

But it’s just inches. How often does a QB dive on 4th and inches get stopped? The worst thing that ever happens is you get a false start penalty and then just punt anyway.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Because they were on their own 40. You more likely than not give up a score if you miss. It’s nfl isn’t madden.

You're never gonna believe this, but Madden players are smarter on some things than NFL coaches.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Well, in FB, the ball goes backward 1st, and Wilson is a small guy.

 

[shu 49]

I’m watching KC/Seattle. Seattle has the ball down 10-7 mid 2nd quarter at their own 40. Its 4th and about a foot, and they punted. Why do coaches do this? Russell Wilson lunging forward has to convert this at least 9 times out of 10. Pete Carroll is a brilliant football mind. How is this an intelligent risk/reward, cost/benefit at all?

Cause at heart he is a defensive coach who like coach P is not exactly a risk taker even when like u said it’s obvious they would make it. I woulda never thought twice about going for it but that’s me lol

 

[Cusefan0307]

Well, in FB, the ball goes backward 1st, and Wilson is a small guy.

So is Drew Brees and he’s mastered just reaching ahead and pulling the ball back.

 

[ForCuseSake]

But it’s just inches. How often does a QB dive on 4th and inches get stopped? The worst thing that ever happens is you get a false start penalty and then just punt anyway.

Or you get a bad spot from a ref with inconclusive video evidence to overturn it.

I agree with you and wish nfl coaches would go for it more frequently.

 

[qdawgg]

I think your description of the scenario describes it perfectly. There was more risk in going for it and missing than in punting. 4th down QB sneaks aren’t converted 9/10 in the NFL. Defensive lines are way more talented than in CFB. It’s also not a dire situation. Why go for risk in a situation that is currently manageable and create a less manageable situation.

 

[Eric15]

4th down QB sneaks aren’t converted 9/10 in the NFL.

I found this data set on the topic. So 8 out of 10, not 9 out of 10.

What the numbers say about 4th-and-short decisions.

 

[Chip]

I thought the same thing when it was happening but ironically it worked to Seattle's benefit. Two plays later KC fumbled deep in their own territory and Seattle took it in for the TD.

Scott Shafer's belief was that this happens 100% of the time.

 

[upperdeck]

what brees does on the goal line is great but it doesnt work on the rest of the field

 

[upperdeck]

i dont feel like our success the last 10 yrs has been close to 80% on qb sneaks.. maybe 50/50

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I found this data set on the topic. So 8 out of 10, not 9 out of 10.

View attachment 148210

What the numbers say about 4th-and-short decisions.

"Read Option Stuff"

 

[Eric15]

i dont feel like our success the last 10 yrs has been close to 80% on qb sneaks.. maybe 50/50

Yeah that’s because we always overcomplicate things like line up out of the shotgun, etc.

 

[Toga]

I found this data set on the topic. So 8 out of 10, not 9 out of 10.

View attachment 148210

What the numbers say about 4th-and-short decisions.

I bet it goes up to 90-95% for a quick QB sneak. Get to the line and go. I don't know if I've ever seen that stopped.

 

[Eric15]

I bet it goes up to 90-95% for a quick QB sneak. Get to the line and go. I don't know if I've ever seen that stopped.

If we run a QB dive with 250 lb Perry Patterson over and over again (what, 7 times?), I guarantee we win that Iowa game.