Quality Road Win, But I’m Sick of the Damn Bubble...

[SUFan44]

Can we please enter mid-February at some point soon without having to win X number of games to make the tournament? My goodness.

 

[jdubs30]

If Louisville finishes the season strong, this will be our best road win in 2 years; that is something we did not have last year and kept us out of the tournament.

We still need that "feather in the cap" win; if we get that, 9 ACC wins should be enough.

Our resume as a whole is stronger this year, but last year we had those 3 massive home wins. But our RPI, SOS, OOC are all better this year.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Yeah I think Louisville’s toast. We on the other hand just need to take care of business at the dome coming up.

 

[longtimefan]

Can we please enter mid-February at some point soon without having to win X number of games to make the tournament? My goodness.

Glass-Half-Empty much.

 

[jncuse]

In the years of 2010-2014, the discussion was getting into a preferable pod in the first round, which usually required a 3 seed at least.

Hypothetically, let's say we were a good team this year, where would you prefer to play the first 2 rounds? Pittsburgh or Detroit... distance wise Detroit is 70 miles further.

There really is not a great first weekend site that fits Syracuse this year.

 

[SUFan44]

If Louisville finishes the season strong, this will be our best road win in 2 years; that is something we did not have last year and kept us out of the tournament.

We still need that "feather in the cap" win; if we get that, 9 ACC wins should be enough.

Our resume as a whole is stronger this year, but last year we had those 3 massive home wins. But our RPI, SOS, OOC are all better this year.

Agreed. Next two are really must wins at home. Then if we can get BC on road and Clemson at home, we just need one of the other three and I’ll feel really good.

I think it will be damn near impossible to win two of three vs Miami, UNC & Duke though.

In any event, this was more of a vent than anything else. So annoying to see this program on the bubble year after year.

 

[orangehomer]

that is a really unique position because everyone else on this board is thrilled with being on the bubble

 

[Cusefan0307]

I think we beat UNC at home.

 

[Madbiker]

Now take of business vs Wake and NC State ... and steal a win vs UNC. That's the ticket.

 

[longtimefan]

If Louisville finishes the season strong, this will be our best road win in 2 years; that is something we did not have last year and kept us out of the tournament.

We still need that "feather in the cap" win; if we get that, 9 ACC wins should be enough.

Our resume as a whole is stronger this year, but last year we had those 3 massive home wins. But our RPI, SOS, OOC are all better this year.

UNC is a feather candidate. They're going to have grind to go 4-3 the rest of the season. Would be nice to have Sidibe back for some games.

 

[NateW]

I think we beat UNC at home.

I co-sign this

 

[Cusefan0307]

The only game left we will be a big underdog in is at Duke. All the other games are winnable.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Good side of the bubble was always going to be the high water mark for the team this year.

Need to find a way to win 4 or 5 more to feel good on Selection Sunday.

 

[jdubs30]

In the years of 2010-2014, the discussion was getting into a preferable pod in the first round, which usually required a 3 seed at least.

Hypothetically, let's say we were a good team this year, where would you prefer to play the first 2 rounds? Pittsburgh or Detroit... distance wise Detroit is 70 miles further.

There really is not a great first weekend site that fits Syracuse this year.

Agreed, but I don't care. Getting in and winning a game would make this season a success, IMO.

I've always thought of this year as building for next year.

Agreed. Next two are really must wins at home. Then if we can get BC on road and Clemson at home, we just need one of the other three and I’ll feel really good.

I think it will be damn near impossible to win two of three vs Miami, UNC & Duke though.

In any event, this was more of a vent than anything else. So annoying to see this program on the bubble year after year.

Yep, if we are 7-6 going into that 3 game stretch, we're in great shape; if that happens and we go 1-2 in that stretch, all we would probably need to do is split the Clemson/BC games and we'd be in; that's 9 ACC wins and 20 overall.

However, if we go 0-2 in the next 2, we're probably toast barring a miracle.

3-1 vs. NC State, Wake, @BC, Clemson
1-2 vs. @Miami, @UNC, Duke

That's what we need to see.

 

[jncuse]

They may (or may not) de-emphasize road wins this year. There is a theoretical reason for it.

The most important metric has always been top 1-50 record. But this metric always overvalued lower tier home wins, and did not capture good road wins (like 51-75). So it forced the committee to look at road wins separately.

The "Quadrant One" record essentially eliminates this bolded issue. By only counting home games between 1-30, and road games from 1-75, the quadrant one record essentially equalizes all games whether they were at home or road.

So perhaps they choose not to double down on road wins... or they probably do. But let's just keep winning.

 

[longislandcuse]

They may (or may not) de-emphasize road wins this year. There is a theoretical reason for it.

The most important metric has always been top 1-50 record. But this metric always overvalued lower tier home wins, and did not capture good road wins (like 51-75). So it forced the committee to look at road wins separately.

The "Quadrant One" record essentially eliminates this bolded issue. By only counting home games between 1-30, and road games from 1-75, the quadrant one record essentially equalizes all games whether they were at home or road.

So perhaps they choose not to double down on road wins... or they probably do. But let's just keep winning.

 

[jncuse]

Don't automatically discount 8-10 in the ACC.

It's not a safe mark, but it could be right around the line come SS.

 

[rrlbees]

They may (or may not) de-emphasize road wins this year. There is a theoretical reason for it.

The most important metric has always been top 1-50 record. But this metric always overvalued lower tier home wins, and did not capture good road wins (like 51-75). So it forced the committee to look at road wins separately.

The "Quadrant One" record essentially eliminates this bolded issue. By only counting home games between 1-30, and road games from 1-75, the quadrant one record essentially equalizes all games whether they were at home or road.

So perhaps they choose not to double down on road wins... or they probably do. But let's just keep winning.

its now almost as bad as the NFL's catch/no catch rule.

 

[jdubs30]

They may (or may not) de-emphasize road wins this year. There is a theoretical reason for it.

The most important metric has always been top 1-50 record. But this metric always overvalued lower tier home wins, and did not capture good road wins (like 51-75). So it forced the committee to look at road wins separately.

The "Quadrant One" record essentially eliminates this bolded issue. By only counting home games between 1-30, and road games from 1-75, the quadrant one record essentially equalizes all games whether they were at home or road.

So perhaps they choose not to double down on road wins... or they probably do. But let's just keep winning.

Any time we put a win in Quadrant One, it's a plus. However, I do think that if Team A has 5 Quadrant One wins, all coming at home. And Team B has 5 Quadrant One wins, but 3 at home and 2 on the road, I would think the committee would view Team B more favorably (for the sake of the argument let's pretend all home wins for Team A and B are vs. teams ranked #50 and the road winsfor team B are vs. teams ranked #75).

Year after year we hear the committee chair saying you have to win away from home. So while the new system does normalize those upper tier wins from a high level perspective, I would think when discussing teams individual profiles, the conversation will also talk about home wins vs. road wins.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Right now there’s 9 teams in the conference with 4-6 losses. Only 3 teams with less than that. Virginia is going to win the conference by 4-5 games.

 

[jdubs30]

Don't automatically discount 8-10 in the ACC.

It's not a safe mark, but it could be right around the line come SS.

Potentially. My worry is we don't have that elite win like we had last year. Right now our only top 30 wins are Buffalo and @Louisville. Louisville is trending down and Buffalo will probably keep dropping down on the metric side because of their conference. If we want to get in with 8 ACC wins, we may need to go 2-1 vs. Miami/Duke/UNC. If we only win 3 more ACC games and it's vs. Wake, NC State and @BC, I'd be very worried on SS unless the bubble stays as weak as it is now.

Clemson is a completely different team without Grantham, so while the win won't be viewed as highly as it normally would have, the metrics won't discriminate on injuries and that'd be a great way to steal Quadrant One.

 

[jncuse]

Any time we put a win in Quadrant One, it's a plus. However, I do think that if Team A has 5 Quadrant One wins, all coming at home. And Team B has 5 Quadrant One wins, but 3 at home and 2 on the road, I would think the committee would view Team B more favorably (for the sake of the argument let's pretend all home wins for Team A and B are vs. teams ranked #50 and the road winsfor team B are vs. teams ranked #75).

Year after year we hear the committee chair saying you have to win away from home. So while the new system does normalize those upper tier wins from a high level perspective, I would think when discussing teams individual profiles, the conversation will also talk about home wins vs. road wins.

I expect they will as well. But this is a significant year of change... the quadrants, the official emphasis and acceptance of power rankings. So the messages may be a little different this year.

 

[jdubs30]

I expect they will as well. But this is a significant year of change... the quadrants, the official emphasis and acceptance of power rankings. So the messages may be a little different this year.

Agreed, it will be interesting on how they view teams, with more data points this year I think it will become clearer on what the committee wants after we see who gets in and who doesn't.

We picked a good year to "game" the system and schedule those good mid-majors that will keep our RPI, SOS and other metrics on the higher side.

 

[jncuse]

Potentially. My worry is we don't have that elite win like we had last year. Right now our only top 30 wins are Buffalo and @Louisville. Louisville is trending down and Buffalo will probably keep dropping down on the metric side because of their conference. If we want to get in with 8 ACC wins, we may need to go 2-1 vs. Miami/Duke/UNC. If we only win 3 more ACC games and it's vs. Wake, NC State and @BC, I'd be very worried on SS unless the bubble stays as weak as it is now.

Clemson is a completely different team without Grantham, so while the win won't be viewed as highly as it normally would have, the metrics won't discriminate on injuries and that'd be a great way to steal Quadrant One.

I'm not sure how they quantify that this year. They had top 25 wins... I wonder if they play around with that as well , like 1-15 at home, 1-40 on the road. Not cunting on Buffalo as well, whether the RPI is top 30 or not. They never trust the RPI of teams from the MAC that are high.

There is no way that 8-10 will be a worry free number... it could be a fairly clear out, or it could be let's see what happens number.

 

[jdubs30]

I'm not sure how they quantify that this year. They had top 25 wins... I wonder if they play around with that as well , like 1-15 at home, 1-40 on the road. Not cunting on Buffalo as well, whether the RPI is top 30 or not. They never trust the RPI of teams from the MAC that are high.

Yep. So we know what Quadrant One wins are, but are all Q1 wins created equal? I can't imagine the committee would view a top 5 win at home and a top 45 win at home similarly just because they're both in Q1. There has to be an additional weight.