Question for Financial Gurus | Page 3 | Syracusefan.com

Question for Financial Gurus

i'm all ears for which of my assumptions are wrong. I isolate them to make it clear what I'm pulling out of my A. if the numbers don't work, it's because my assumptions are wrong.

pv=$500,000,000
r=10%
nper=30
pmt=$53,000,000

margin%=20%
solve for revenue=53M/.2=$265M
costs=$265-53=$212

I know thatt will never happen ever. no one in their right minds would voluntarily put up $500M expecting that kind of revenue for an arena in syracuse.

The whole point of the exercise was to solve for what would make this a break even investment for the assumptions I clearly laid out.

The reason this is a PPP is because the numbers are clearly ridiculous and the only way you can pay for this thing is to take the money away from people who rightly think "I want no part of this dogsh!t investment because it's ridiculous" if there are social benefits that justify this type of investment they still need to add up to the same 53M we backed into

You have no idea what you are talking about.

Again, I'm no finance wiz, are you treating this as if there is $500M in equity in the project, because that's not how this would work, at all.
 
i tried to preemptively dismiss the guru stuff. no one is a finance guru anywhere, i'm convinced

i'm all ears for which of my assumptions are wrong. I isolate them to make it clear what I'm pulling out of my A. if the numbers don't work, it's because my assumptions are wrong.

pv=$500,000,000
r=10%
nper=30
pmt=$53,000,000

margin%=20%
solve for revenue=53M/.2=$265M
costs=$265-53=$212

I know thatt will never happen ever. no one in their right minds would voluntarily put up $500M expecting that kind of revenue for an arena in syracuse.

The whole point of the exercise was to solve for what would make this a break even investment for the assumptions I clearly laid out. these numbers are crazy because spending 500M is crazy

The reason this is a PPP is because the numbers are clearly ridiculous and the only way you can pay for this thing is to take the money away from people who rightly think "I want no part of this dogsh!t investment because it's ridiculous." If there are social benefits that justify this type of investment they still need to add up to the same 53M we backed into
Where do you factor in the lease payment from the university? How much did they agree to pay per year? How much would it cost for a municipality (county) to borrow those funds? You think 10%? A-rated 30 year is 5%.
 
You have no idea what you are talking about.

Again, I'm no finance wiz, are you treating this as if there is $500M in equity in the project, because that's not how this would work, at all.
most of the time when people invest 500 million, they hope to get at least 500 million back in some form. and people discount uncertain future cash flows.

i know that's not how it's going to work because the investment sucks.

how it will actually work is that the special interests will lobby government to take money from everyone to pay for a project that no one in their right mind would pay for on their own.

PPPs only exist when the investment stinks.
 
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Where do you factor in the lease payment from the university? How much did they agree to pay per year? How much would it cost for a municipality (county) to borrow those funds? You think 10%? A-rated 30 year is 5%.
You don't discount a risky project by the amount by which you can borrow. They're two different things. Projects have cost of capital that are higher than what a firm can borrow for

There is some interesting research by Rauh and Novy-Marx about how governments make the same mistake figuring out their pension liabilities (they discount the more certain pension payments with the same discount rate as their riskier investments)
 
You don't discount a risky project by the amount by which you can borrow. They're two different things. Projects have cost of capital that are higher than what a firm can borrow for

There is some interesting research by Rauh and Novy-Marx about how governments make the same mistake figuring out their pension liabilities (they discount the more certain pension payments with the same discount rate as their riskier investments)
It has to do with cashflows. And the cashflows involve the cost of bonds they will float to finance this thing and will include the rent that SU pays. You ignored both. Shame on you.
 
most of the time when people invest 500 million, they hope to get at least 500 million back in some form. and people discount uncertain future cash flows.

i know that's not how it's going to work because the investment sucks.

how it will actually work is that the special interests will lobby government to take money from everyone to pay for a project that no one in their right mind would pay for on their own.

PPPs only exist when the investment stinks.

Stop with the ppp stuff which you know nothing about. Ppp exists so you can do more infrastructure build with the same amount of public tax dollars. Private capital participates because they expect to generate returns in excess of their cost of capital, which is lowered by the government participation with debt at the risk free rate. Infrastructure investment companies that exclusively do Ppp tends to have large stable diversified portfolios of concessions. The large number of projects reduces the risk and the cash flows of the portfolio are highly predictable. As such they tend to pay out a large percentage of their earnings in dividends. These are cash generating vehicles that tap private dollars to make money in public projects. They are among the most secure equities you can buy so you will find them prominently held by insurance companies, endowments, and pension funds.

Sophisticated Private capital does not chase projects with bad return characteristics.
 
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who wants to say they think of themselves as a guru? eek

but i'll just add this to make it easier to think about

3% inflation that's about 40 million in todays dollars.

that is ten times smaller than what will come from governments this time around. i don't think it made money for the state but i'm just guessing. if it was expected to be a money maker without soft benefits, someone probably would've put up that 15 million voluntarily.

i saw that jackson state is trying to build a replica of the carrier dome for 200 million. the artist renderings look like you're in the carrier dome, it's pretty funny. costs have gone up way more than inflation, i don't know what to make of it

Sales tax on concessions etc have to be huge I'd think. That's not counting the off-campus business taxes and business it has fostered.
 
Stop with the ppp stuff which you know nothing about. Ppp exists so you can do more infrastructure build with the same amount of public tax dollars. Private capital participates because they expect to generate returns in excess of their cost of capital, which is lowered by the government participation with debt at the risk free rate. Infrastructure investment companies that exclusively do Ppp tends to have large stable diversified portfolios of concessions. The large number of projects reduces the risk and the cash flows of the portfolio are highly predictable. As such they tend to pay out a large percentage of their earnings in dividends. These are cash generating vehicles that tap private dollars to make money in public projects. They are among the most secure equities you can buy so you will find them prominently held by insurance companies, endowments, and pension funds.

Sophisticated Private capital does not chase projects with bad return characteristics.
just because the government can print money doesn't reduce the actual risk to taxpayers.

the risk to government debt holders is less than the risk to taxpayers.

government's ability to print money doesn't change the risk of the project. all the PPP does is shift risk from private capital to taxpayers. the risk doesn't magically go away.

you can form a PPP to watch a coin flip and it doesn't change the odds

simple example. 500 mil project paid for with risk free debt. It turns out the project is a complete scam, absolutely nothing gets done. Govt can pay every debt holder just fine by printing 500 million. Who bore the risk? Taxpayers who are collectively 500 million poorer due to the 500 million of inflation.

The project was risky. The bond holders held risk free debt. They're not the same thing. Someone bears the risk.
 
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just because the government can print money doesn't reduce the actual risk to taxpayers.

the risk to government debt holders is less than the risk to taxpayers.

government's ability to print money doesn't change the risk of the project. all the PPP does is shift risk from private capital to taxpayers. the risk doesn't magically go away.

you can form a PPP to watch a coin flip and it doesn't change the odds

simple example. 500 mil project paid for with risk free debt. It turns out the project is a complete scam, absolutely nothing gets done. Govt can pay every debt holder just fine by printing 500 million. Who bore the risk? Taxpayers who are collectively 500 million poorer due to the 500 million of inflation.

The project was risky. The bond holders held risk free debt. They're not the same thing. Someone bears the risk.

You are running on fumes now buddy.

This is very simple. There is necessarily less risk to the taxpayer because you are replacing public debt with private equity. Less public money is at risk. In return you give up some of the upside by letting the private investor run the concession and let then keep the excess profits after your debt is paid. Additionally if you believe that private companies are better at judging and investing profitably than government, you should feel good that private players want to be involved in a project because it means they think it will make money.

You are welcome to your view that stadiums are a poor use of taxpayer money. I think it is entirely situational and the characteristics of the proposed project in Syracuse make me inclined to think in this situation the investment would be a relatively good one, without seeing their assumptions I can't say for sure. But your attacking it based on ppp being a scam is just really completely wrong. Almost as wrong as assigning zero value to intangible assets.
 
You are running on fumes now buddy.

This is very simple. There is necessarily less risk to the taxpayer because you are replacing public debt with private equity. Less public money is at risk. In return you give up some of the upside by letting the private investor run the concession and let then keep the excess profits after your debt is paid. Additionally if you believe that private companies are better at judging and investing profitably than government, you should feel good that private players want to be involved in a project because it means they think it will make money.

You are welcome to your view that stadiums are a poor use of taxpayer money. I think it is entirely situational and the characteristics of the proposed project in Syracuse make me inclined to think in this situation the investment would be a relatively good one, without seeing their assumptions I can't say for sure. But your attacking it based on ppp being a scam is just really completely wrong. Almost as wrong as assigning zero value to intangible assets.
I agree that 400 is less than 500. 100 private invesment is greater than 0. I get that. Duh. You don't have to keep saying that. I'd rather have an investor with any skin in the game than none if those are the only alternatives.

But government printing presses don't change the riskiness of the project. Someone holds the risk. In this case it's mostly the taxpayer because as i've shown, it's a bad deal for anyone voluntarily take that much risk. Now if you can get all the profits for 20% of the risk, that's nice work if you can get it. sucks for taxpayers though
 
You are running on fumes now buddy.

This is very simple. There is necessarily less risk to the taxpayer because you are replacing public debt with private equity. Less public money is at risk. In return you give up some of the upside by letting the private investor run the concession and let then keep the excess profits after your debt is paid. Additionally if you believe that private companies are better at judging and investing profitably than government, you should feel good that private players want to be involved in a project because it means they think it will make money.

You are welcome to your view that stadiums are a poor use of taxpayer money. I think it is entirely situational and the characteristics of the proposed project in Syracuse make me inclined to think in this situation the investment would be a relatively good one, without seeing their assumptions I can't say for sure. But your attacking it based on ppp being a scam is just really completely wrong. Almost as wrong as assigning zero value to intangible assets.

He really has no idea what he is talking about.
 
who wants to say they think of themselves as a guru? eek

but i'll just add this to make it easier to think about

3% inflation that's about 40 million in todays dollars.

that is ten times smaller than what will come from governments this time around. i don't think it made money for the state but i'm just guessing. if it was expected to be a money maker without soft benefits, someone probably would've put up that 15 million voluntarily.

i saw that jackson state is trying to build a replica of the carrier dome for 200 million. the artist renderings look like you're in the carrier dome, it's pretty funny. costs have gone up way more than inflation, i don't know what to make of it


So zero insight on dollars generated from things like Springstein concerts, NCAA events, etc.

I don't think you would make a good economist.
 
if you can't prove that a measly 40 million dollar investment had a tangible benefit, that means that the entire benefit of stadium is intangible. which might rightfully scare some people off

Doubling down on the post a second ago, if you think there were no tangible benefits from the original investment, you would REALLY make a terrible economist.
 
Without Syracuse University, Syracuse becomes Utica. It would take a while but without Syracuse U sports, SU becomes Colgate. If New York ever wants Central New York to make a comeback they will do whatever they can to bolster the only major draw they have.
There was something about coming into the ACC that changed the perception (for the better) of the University both academically and with regards to athletics. We need to step up our game.
BTW Before anybody gets their panties in a bunch, I think Colgate is a great school.
 
MadNY3 said:
So zero insight on dollars generated from things like Springstein concerts, NCAA events, etc. I don't think you would make a good economist.
I just backed into the cash they'd need to make per year to justify the cost. It goes without saying that money from concerts counts. I guess the math is wrong because jungle land is great.

Your insight into this problem is to point out that you're a businessman and Rubin isn't. Helpful and impressive contribution, thanks
 
MadNY3 said:
Doubling down on the post a second ago, if you think there were no tangible benefits from the original investment, you would REALLY make a terrible economist.
I didn't say that. I said that cuseinchina refuses to prove that which must mean that he thinks all the benefits are intangible

As soon as you actually address the simple math or what I actually said, your insults might matter to me. Maybe
 
MadNY3 said:
Doubling down on the post a second ago, if you think there were no tangible benefits from the original investment, you would REALLY make a terrible economist.
I'd also like to point out what was in the original freaking post by tomcat
 
LAOrange said:
Without Syracuse University, Syracuse becomes Utica. It would take a while but without Syracuse U sports, SU becomes Colgate. If New York ever wants Central New York to make a comeback they will do whatever they can to bolster the only major draw they have. There was something about coming into the ACC that changed the perception (for the better) of the University both academically and with regards to athletics. We need to step up our game. BTW Before anybody gets their panties in a bunch, I think Colgate is a great school.
So instead of talking about the benefits of the dome, you're making the argument that the dome would save us even greater costs. Either way the math works the same it's just a matter of sign

I'm getting slaughtered for daring to back into yearly numbers and applying a discount rate. The numbers apply to costs Springsteen intangible whatever . It's gotta add up to 53m a year given the parameters I picked
 
xc84 said:
I think what you are saying is it's easy to manipulate the outcome with slight changes to the discount rate you choose to use in an analysis like this. Goes to show you how useless it is to discuss various discount rates and which is the correct one to use in a discussion like this on a bulletin board.
The assumptions mean everything. And this is pointless, for sure. What I like to do is back into what the assumptions need to be for it to work. So pick the net benefits and then compute what that must imply for the break even discount rate. Hard to settle on a number for the benefits though
 
most of the time when people invest 500 million, they hope to get at least 500 million back in some form. and people discount uncertain future cash flows.

i know that's not how it's going to work because the investment sucks.

how it will actually work is that the special interests will lobby government to take money from everyone to pay for a project that no one in their right mind would pay for on their own.

PPPs only exist when the investment stinks.

And I know for a fact that it doesn't take $265M per year in Gross Revenue to get the debt holders and equity investors their money out with standard returns to both. It would take about $80M, and that is without a dime of capital contribution from the state.

If you can't get that, why should anyone pay any attention to what you say. This project is to build a large, capital intensive, PUBLIC building. The same thing as building a park, a library, a museum, a new bridge, a tunnel, or a courthouse. When the government "invests" in those things they don't expect 20% margins. To set that as the benchmark shows a complete lack of understanding of the subject. Debt issuers aren't expecting 20% returns.

It's a building, not a business in an off itself. A special purpose corporation is set up. It doesn't have any profit or loss responsibility, it's purpose is to obtain funding, manage the construction, and manage the enterprise in a manner that the debt holders and equity get their money out with reasonable returns. The purpose is to cover operations and debt service, that's it, not make a dime in profit after that.

The private investors require a reasonable return on the investment, but they make the bulk of their money on the construction or the concession, not on the building itself.

Now the business case might be that there isn't $80M in business, and that's where the hard decisions have to be made, that's where the need of capital contributions or revenue support agreements come in. Can direct investments from the public be justified on the basis of trades, additional tax revenues, ancillary development, good will, tourism, come in. That's a legitimate question.

But to make it a question of hundreds of millions vs tens is absurd and shows you just don't get it.
 
xc84 said:
It has to do with cashflows. And the cashflows involve the cost of bonds they will float to finance this thing and will include the rent that SU pays. You ignored both. Shame on you.
I assumed good margins. Low Debt payments play into that. Rent would fall into revenue. I didn't rule any of that out. I'm all ears for different margin assumptions.
 
GoSU96 said:
And I know for a fact that it doesn't take $265M per year in Gross Revenue to get the debt holders and equity investors their money out with standard returns to both. It would take about $80M, and that is without a dime of capital contribution from the state. If you can't get that, why should anyone pay any attention to what you say. This project is to build a large, capital intensive, PUBLIC building. The same thing as building a park, a library, a museum, a new bridge, a tunnel, or a courthouse. When the government "invests" in those things they don't expect 20% margins. To set that as the benchmark shows a complete lack of understanding of the subject. Debt issuers aren't expecting 20% returns. It's a building, not a business in an off itself. A special purpose corporation is set up. It doesn't have any profit or loss responsibility, it's purpose is to obtain funding, manage the construction, and manage the enterprise in a manner that the debt holders and equity get their money out with reasonable returns. The purpose is to cover operations and debt service, that's it, not make a dime in profit after that. The private investors require a reasonable return on the investment, but they make the bulk of their money on the construction or the concession, not on the building itself. Now the business case might be that there isn't $80M in business, and that's where the hard decisions have to be made, that's where the need of capital contributions or revenue support agreements come in. Can direct investments from the public be justified on the basis of trades, additional tax revenues, ancillary development, good will, tourism, come in. That's a legitimate question. But to make it a question of hundreds of millions vs tens is absurd and shows you just don't get it.
The taxpayers are in essence the equity holders. I was just trying to get it to break even. The twenty percent number is just saying that there are costs of running the place. We can play with those numbers I wasn't hiding that they were assumptions, I was pretty clear off the bat. Tax payers will be left holding the bag to pay the debt holders so we don't simply discount at the same rate as the debt
 
The taxpayers are in essence the equity holders. I was just trying to get it to break even. The twenty percent number is just saying that there are costs of running the place. We can play with those numbers I wasn't hiding that they were assumptions, I was pretty clear off the bat. Tax payers will be left holding the bag to pay the debt holders so we don't simply discount at the same rate as the debt

No, you said the 20% was PROFIT.

Of course there are operational expenses, but they are $200+M a year. If you have a ridiculous outcome, isn't that an indication your math is wrong?
 
Shhhhhh... I am busy trying to figure out the rate of return to the taxpayers on the sidewalk in front of my house.
 

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