Reasonable Expectations for Jerami Grant

[Gabjon]

Nice work tomcat. I think those are excellent comparisons.

I think reasonable expectations could be drawn by looking at the sophomore stats of the comparison group. Often times there is a progression of roles and responsibilities and it looks like Grant will be following right in the normal SU way. In his soph season he will be the 2nd man with top honors going to CJ, just like most of the others.

I think Grant has huge upside potential, Hak-like. But I don't know that we will see it at SU. This new strategy we have now seems to allow/encourage the blossoming and leaving of big time talent. In a way it is a little sad. But I think it might be 50/50 that Grant will leave, continuing in the line of Fab, Dion, and MCW. If he improves the way I think he will, the trajectory of improvement will highlight his huge potential and possibly make him lottery worthy without having nearly the college careers of his other comparable comrades.

No need to get too worked up about it though because this new strategy has Roberson and McCollough ready to reload.

I agree. I think the biggest people are not considering is Jerami was the youngest player on this year's team by 2 years! This is the reason people think he may be growing he is young enough where it is still possible. If compare him to his age bracket than he is a potential lottery pick next year. He would have been a Micky this year if he was in HS like most players his age.

 

[cuseinseattle]

If that happens, then i'd still project Grant to play starter's minutes [or near starter's minutes] as the latest offensively gifted super sub.

With players like Rak [ostensibly returning], CJ, Grant, and Roberson, that gives JB a lot of versatility and lineup flexibility.

Hard not to envision next year's team going 9 deep. Big question is: how much will Rak, Roberson, and Coleman play? Because the other 6 are all going to get a heavy infusion of minutes.

Rak will start at center yes? How would Roberson start over him?

 

[orangepassion]

The real question is-What are Igor's expectations?

 

[SBU72]

" Last in shots attempted, first in FT attempts drawn. That is extraordinary...KJ, CJ and HW were all very good (and still are) at drawing fouls, but Jerami topped them all despite not taking many shots. That tells me that when JG takes a shot, he is often going to draw a foul, and that he is an inside player with a lot of potential. "
My feeling is that Jerami shooting more FTA's but having fewer shot attemps is related. Often times he was fouled because he lacked the strength to finish a shot, there for getting free throws but no shot attempt. Also seem to remember he is not a good FT shooter (yet) so getting fouled may also have been to stop the scoring and if he can't convert then he has only done half the job. Please do not miscontrive this as a harsh criticsim. His basic weakness was his weakness.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

To continue with the reasonable expectations. Here are the sophomore numbers:
KJ 10.8 ppg 5.5 rpg
HW 14.8ppg 8.5 rpg
CJ 8.5ppg 5.4rpg

The average of the above works out to: 11.4 ppg and 6.5 rpg

Seems reasonable.

 

[billsin01]

To continue with the reasonable expectations. Here are the sophomore numbers:
KJ 10.8 ppg 5.5 rpg
HW 14.8ppg 8.5 rpg
CJ 8.5ppg 5.4rpg

The average of the above works out to: 11.4 ppg and 6.5 rpg

Seems reasonable.

Yeah, I would think that would be a really solid baseline. Usually this board starts hyperventillating and predicting 20 and 13 when a guy looks like a good player, but it rarely works out that way. I'd suggest his scoring could be closer to Hak's number (you've got to figure he's a clear no. 2 option behind Fair) but 11 or 12 and 6 rpg would seem like 'reasonable' expectations.

 

[edowd26]

I think jerami is going to be a very good NBA player. I fully expect him to be better than all 3. Different, but overall better.

 

[timkay99]

For me, Roberson will have to wait his turn. Roberson is obviously insanely talented, but I don't think JB is going to start him ahead of an upperclassmen (Fair/Rak) and DC is likely starting at C.

As it relates to Grant, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Waiters type jump in production. I think he slots perfectly into the role that KJ played as a soph, Waiters played as a soph and that is instant-offense off the bench. I bring up Waiters as the comp because I think you will see Jerami not only score, but also make a big contribution to the steals department.

When the game is on the line, I personally see us going with a Ennis-winthejob-Fair-Grant-winthejob.

For this team, the competition is between newcomers (and Cooney) at SG and returning players at C.

 

[billsin01]

I think he ends up having a comparable career to these guys. Doubt he will become the rebounder that Hak became but he should end up better than the others here. Is destined to draw a ton of fouls. A lot depends on his ability to score points on mid range jumpers...he certainly has the tools to do this. If he becomes a reliable outside shooter and adds some muscle to aid him inside, he could end up being the best of the bunch. I will be disappointed if he doesn't end up being the ACC player of the year one day.

I like and agree with a lot of your post and applaud the analysis but I'm not sure I entirely agree with the baseline. A couple reasons why:

1) If we're talking about "reasonable expectations" then I really think saying you'd be disappointed if he didn't end up being the ACC POY is unfair. I mean, not only does that mean he's basically the best player in the best conference, but it also means he has to be recognized as such (and we all know how those things work sometimes).

2) I'm not really sure that comparing his rebounds to Hak's makes all that much sense anyway, given that Grant, particularly if he develops the way we all expect, will be much more of a perimeter oriented player and shot-blocker. Oddly, Hak didn't really block many shots -- a fact that remains hard to believe. But, regardless, the 3 typically is going to rebound a bit less than the 4 and Grant is very much more in the 3 mold, IMO.

3) The early entry situation has to be factored in. I'd suggest Grant is a much higher-end athlete than either Fair (really nice athlete but not exceptionally fluid) or Warrick (exceptionally long, excellent verticle but not the quickest feet -- something exposed in the NBA and part of the reason he didn't block many shots). I actually think he's pretty similar to KJ (a really underrated athlete, IMO) but he's more physical and further along in terms of polish -- both of which make him more attractive to the NBA. All of this is to say he could have a nice year this year but fall short of ACC POY numbers and end up in the NBA by next June.

So, again, I generally agree with your assessment but I'd probably temper my expectations a bit from yours.

 

[billsin01]

I think JG is the better athlete of all the comparisons. He is the best defender of that group as a freshman. His fierce, hardnosed ability and pure basketball sense is above those mentioned. IF he stays more than one more year, I'll go so far as to predict he'll have at least as good stats as Hak did at that point----and maybe better.

Yeah, I agree with this. A better combination of quickness, toughness and fluidity (if that's a word) than the other three. It's tough for me to say I 'expect' him to be better than Hak or Fair (Fair is still largely underrated, IMO) -- KJ not quite so much as he turned into a shooter and pretty marginal rebounder by the end of his career -- but I'd certainly suggest he has the highest overall ceiling of the bunch.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Yeah, I would think that would be a really solid baseline. Usually this board starts hyperventillating and predicting 20 and 13 when a guy looks like a good player, but it rarely works out that way. I'd suggest his scoring could be closer to Hak's number (you've got to figure he's a clear no. 2 option behind Fair) but 11 or 12 and 6 rpg would seem like 'reasonable' expectations.

I'm not sure he will be the clear number 2 option. A lot of his game is offensive rebounds and putbacks. And I think he will do an excellent job there. I'm not really sure where the scoring will come from but I hope DC2 and MG can challenge.

Also, don't forget Hak's numbers came from almost 33 min per game. We had no real backup forward to Melo and Hak, we had to trot out Josh Pace, or god forbid, a frosh Gorman. Those aren't exactly Roberson type options.

 

[billsin01]

I'm not sure he will be the clear number 2 option. A lot of his game is offensive rebounds and putbacks. And I think he will do an excellent job there. I'm not really sure where the scoring will come from but I hope DC2 and MG can challenge.

Also, don't forget Hak's numbers came from almost 33 min per game. We had no real backup forward to Melo and Hak, we had to trot out Josh Pace, or god forbid, a frosh Gorman. Those aren't exactly Roberson type options.

Definitely true on the depth factor with Hak. I suppose MG could be there and I'd love if DC2 really improved that much, but if you look at Grant's numbers and consider he was, as you point out, a bit raw offensively, it's pretty impressive what he did. In BE games where received at least 15 mins (yes, it's cherry picking but I feel like that number means you got some significant run in both halves), Grant averaged 8 ppg and had 5 or more rebs (which will only help his point production) in 8 of those nine. My point is he's shown he can play with the big boys and it's hard to imagine he's going to be under 25 mpg -- so I'd say it's a safe bet to assume he's a central part of this offense and I'd further suggest that it's going to take some pretty significant effort from DC2 or MG to supplant him as the no. 2. Don't get me wrong, I'd be cool with that happening and I don't think it's impossible, but just pretty unlikely.

 

[realorange]

I believe Tomcat said that Jerami could be ACC player of the year one day, not next year. Next year that could very well be CJ. The following year Jerami??

 

[billsin01]

I believe Tomcat said that Jerami could be ACC player of the year one day, not next year. Next year that could very well be CJ. The following year Jerami??

I get that. I wasn't as focused -- if this is in response to me -- on one day as I was 'I'd be disappointed' if it didn't happen. I think that's a huge expectation whether JG is a soph or a sr. That was my only point.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Definitely true on the depth factor with Hak. I suppose MG could be there and I'd love if DC2 really improved that much, but if you look at Grant's numbers and consider he was, as you point out, a bit raw offensively, it's pretty impressive what he did. In BE games where received at least 15 mins (yes, it's cherry picking but I feel like that number means you got some significant run in both halves), Grant averaged 8 ppg and had 5 or more rebs (which will only help his point production) in 8 of those nine. My point is he's shown he can play with the big boys and it's hard to imagine he's going to be under 25 mpg -- so I'd say it's a safe bet to assume he's a central part of this offense and I'd further suggest that it's going to take some pretty significant effort from DC2 or MG to supplant him as the no. 2. Don't get me wrong, I'd be cool with that happening and I don't think it's impossible, but just pretty unlikely.

I guess it might just be semantics but I see a difference between being option #2 and being the second leading scorer. I think Grant could be the second leading scorer by virtue of what he was doing with his time last year - and I think he was the 4th option while on the floor last year. Next year I see more shots coming out of CJ and more cleanup coming from Grant.

I consider being the second option a little different. Kind of a who was the play designed for kind of thing. For instance, if they double CJ on the wing, and we have MG take it hard to the hole, even if Grant happens to cleanup the miss, it was still MG who was the second option.

 

[syr02esq]

I think Grant will be a star. He has an uncanny ability to grab the rebound and his 3 point shot looks pretty darn good. I see him taking an enormous leap next season. He's going to be a good one folks!

 

[Gabjon]

I think Rak starts at the 4 but Grant plays more mins. I also think Roberson plays the 3 behind CJ and therefore doesn't play much. Now if DC2 doesn't develop then Rak plays more at center and Roberson and CJ will probably play together more. I think JB wants to be long in the zone at every position.

 

[reedny]

If that happens, then i'd still project Grant to play starter's minutes [or near starter's minutes] as the latest offensively gifted super sub.

With players like Rak [ostensibly returning], CJ, Grant, and Roberson, that gives JB a lot of versatility and lineup flexibility.

Hard not to envision next year's team going 9 deep. Big question is: how much will Rak, Roberson, and Coleman play? Because the other 6 are all going to get a heavy infusion of minutes.

If we have players like Rak, Roberson and Coleman struggling for minutes, I'll take that problem all day (we'll be very very good). This only an issue because our 3-4 rotation is LOADED.

 

[orange79]

The real question is-What are Igor's expectations?

In spite of JB's shortcomings, we will make the tournament, but flame-out in the first round. If we had a new HC who didn't
coach dino ball, we would win it all. Probably 3 out of the next 5.

 

[moqui]

he could end up being the best of the bunch. I will be disappointed if he doesn't end up being the ACC player of the year one day.

my intention is not to rip you here, tomcat, but I have to point out that you began your post asking for "reasonable" expectations for the kid, then ended it by projecting him to be ACC POY and better than a consensus All American. those are pretty high bars. having fallen into the high expectations trap myself after Rak's excellent post season in 2012, I don't want to set anyone up for a fall by overestimating again.

I think "reasonable" expectations are that he will average about 12 and 7 over a 4 year career and maybe have a peak year when he gets to around or over 15 and 8 (which is pretty damn good).

 

[Trueblue25]

I hope that Jerami is closer to Demetrius Nichols and Hak then CJ and KJ, though both great players. Grant has the height, athleticism and length of Warrick. He also has the makings of what could be an athletic 3 point threat like Nichols.

As the free throw stats display, I think that Grant could develop into a much more aggressive player than any of these four, which would be great for our program.

Maybe he's got a little Rudy Gay in him?

 

[sutomcat]

my intention is not to rip you here, tomcat, but I have to point out that you began your post asking for "reasonable" expectations for the kid, then ended it by projecting him to be ACC POY and better than a consensus All American. those are pretty high bars. having fallen into the high expectations trap myself after Rak's excellent post season in 2012, I don't want to set anyone up for a fall by overestimating again.

I think "reasonable" expectations are that he will average about 12 and 7 over a 4 year career and maybe have a peak year when he gets to around or over 15 and 8 (which is pretty damn good).

I guess we will see. My biggest concern regarding my prediction is that JG will leave the program before he has a chance to be the 'go to guy' the offense is built around.

The other thing working against him is that SU is accumulating so much talent on the roster that it is going to be difficult for anyone, no matter how good they are, to get the kind of minutes and touches that the other guys got late in their careers.

Next year the offense is obviously going to be built around CJ, and then McCullough comes on the scene. All indications are that Roberson is a terrific player. DCII is, I think, going to develop into a solid inside scoring options, there are lots of talented young guards around too.

I have little doubt that JG has the ability to be a great player in the future. Opportunity might be more problematic for him. I am going to stand by my prediction. I think SU is going to be the best program in the ACC for the rest of JG's career and even with all the other talent on the team, JG is likely going to be the man his junior and senior seasons. Maybe co-man with McCullough. The best experienced player on the best team usually gets the MVP award; I think JG will be in the mix if he stays for 3 or 4 years.

It will be interesting to see how things develop.

 

[Gabjon]

my intention is not to rip you here, tomcat, but I have to point out that you began your post asking for "reasonable" expectations for the kid, then ended it by projecting him to be ACC POY and better than a consensus All American. those are pretty high bars. having fallen into the high expectations trap myself after Rak's excellent post season in 2012, I don't want to set anyone up for a fall by overestimating again.

I think "reasonable" expectations are that he will average about 12 and 7 over a 4 year career and maybe have a peak year when he gets to around or over 15 and 8 (which is pretty damn good).

Yes but CJ has developed into that type of player, which indicates that any of our guys can be a ACC POY (based on the fact that most of the other guys were ranked higher than CJ out of HS) at the end of the day I believe somebody will step up and be very good. If not JG than TR it's all SU so it's all good!

 

[moqui]

Yes but CJ has developed into that type of player, which indicates that any of our guys can be a ACC POY (based on the fact that most of the other guys were ranked higher than CJ out of HS) at the end of the day I believe somebody will step up and be very good. If not JG than TR it's all SU so it's all good!

that reasoning is flawed in at least three different ways, Gabjon.

a thread on "reasonable expectations" has now reached the point that every player on our roster is a potential ACC POY! nuttin' unreasonable 'bout dat.

 

[Gabjon]

that reasoning is flawed in at least three different ways, Gabjon.

a thread on "reasonable expectations" has now reached the point that every player on our roster is a potential ACC POY! nuttin' unreasonable 'bout dat.

No I think the point is that every player won't be a POY caliber player but for every player that disappoints there is another that overachieves (based on expectations) and that's the point. I personally don't care about POY as much as I care about players playing well enough to be considered for the award. Often POY goes to the leading scorer in the conference and his team is rarely better than middle of the pack.