Reasonable Expectations for Jerami Grant

[sutomcat]

The kid obviously has some talent, but how much? How well did he do his frosh year compared to other recent SU combo forwards of note?

Here is a look at the frosh year numbers Jerami just posted, compared to those for KJ, HW and CJ. I converted the numbers into production per minute to better allow an apples vs apples comparison.

I think if you click on the image, it will expand in size and become easier to read.

Anyway, it turns out Jerami had a frosh season very comparable to KJ, HW and CJ.

He took less shots per minute than any of the others. That could be a function of an inability to make his own shot or a reluctance to shoot period, but I think watching him play, it was more because Jerami often chose to defer to more experienced players when he was out there.

Despite shooting less than any of these players, Grant had more FT attempts per minute than any of them. Last in shots attempted, first in FT attempts drawn. That is extraordinary...KJ, CJ and HW were all very good (and still are) at drawing fouls, but Jerami topped them all despite not taking many shots. That tells me that when JG takes a shot, he is often going to draw a foul, and that he is an inside player with a lot of potential.

Players who draw a ton of fouls without taking a lot of fouls are like gold; they have a ton of value. Especially if they develop into good FT shooters. JG improved in that area late in the season and I think he will develop into a fine FT shooter as his career progresses. I hope so...this will be an important factor in determining just how good he becomes over time.

In the other areas, he is roughly comparable to the others. 2nd most effective rebounder, good on the offensive boards, very good on the defensive boards. Good at getting steals, good at blocking shots, good at limiting his turnovers.

I think he ends up having a comparable career to these guys. Doubt he will become the rebounder that Hak became but he should end up better than the others here. Is destined to draw a ton of fouls. A lot depends on his ability to score points on mid range jumpers...he certainly has the tools to do this. If he becomes a reliable outside shooter and adds some muscle to aid him inside, he could end up being the best of the bunch. I will be disappointed if he doesn't end up being the ACC player of the year one day.

 

[orangefog]

I saw all I needed to see in I believe it was the Michigan game. In the few minutes he had, he went after the ball hard, and got it. He would not be denied. If he remains that aggressive, he will be a monster. If some of that desire rubs off on Rakeem, then our front line will be amazing.

 

[BostonOrange]

The kid obviously has some talent, but how much? How well did he do his frosh year compared to other recent SU combo forwards of note?

Here is a look at the frosh year numbers Jerami just posted, compared to those for KJ, HW and CJ. I converted the numbers into production per minute to better allow an apples vs apples comparison.

View attachment 3297

I think if you click on the image, it will expand in size and become easier to read.

Anyway, it turns out Jerami had a frosh season very comparable to KJ, HW and CJ.

He took less shots per minute than any of the others. That could be a function of an inability to make his own shot or a reluctance to shoot period, but I think watching him play, it was more because Jerami often chose to defer to more experienced players when he was out there.

Despite shooting less than any of these players, Grant had more FT attempts per minute than any of them. Last in shots attempted, first in FT attempts drawn. That is extraordinary...KJ, CJ and HW were all very good (and still are) at drawing fouls, but Jerami topped them all despite not taking many shots. That tells me that when JG takes a shot, he is often going to draw a foul, and that he is an inside player with a lot of potential.

Players who draw a ton of fouls without taking a lot of fouls are like gold; they have a ton of value. Especially if they develop into good FT shooters. JG improved in that area late in the season and I think he will develop into a fine FT shooter as his career progresses. I hope so...this will be an important factor in determining just how good he becomes over time.

In the other areas, he is roughly comparable to the others. 2nd most effective rebounder, good on the offensive boards, very good on the defensive boards. Good at getting steals, good at blocking shots, good at limiting his turnovers.

I think he ends up having a comparable career to these guys. Doubt he will become the rebounder that Hak became but he should end up better than the others here. Is destined to draw a ton of fouls. A lot depends on his ability to score points on mid range jumpers...he certainly has the tools to do this. If he becomes a reliable outside shooter and adds some muscle to aid him inside, he could end up being the best of the bunch. I will be disappointed if he doesn't end up being the ACC player of the year one day.

Wow Kris and Hak made Jerami look like Ray Allen from the line. That stat really illustrates how much guys can improve through their careers. As for Jerami I think the sky is the limit for him. I really have no idea what he will become - I could see him putting on 25 lbs and being a true PF with some perimeter skills mixed in. I could see him becoming a knock down mid range shooter. Or, I could see him only marginally developing his skills and ending up as a very rich man's KO - an energy guy. I have high hopes though...he really reminds me of his dad in some ways, and his dad showed huge improvement during his college years.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

Doubt he will become the rebounder that Hak became but he should end up better than the others here.

Why do you say this?

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Wow Kris and Hak made Jerami look like Ray Allen from the line. That stat really illustrates how much guys can improve through their careers.

Come on, man. Everybody knows that guys never get better shooting free throws once they have a Syracuse uniform on.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Why do you say this?

Yeah, I'm with Forza. Grant looked to me like one of the best natural rebounders we've ever had. I'm very optimistic about our ability to clean the glass next season, between Grant, Coleman, Rak, Keita and Thickburger, and I think Grant may be the best of the bunch.

 

[sutomcat]

Why do you say this?

Because of the numbers. Check out how terrific Hak's rebounding was compared to JG's. A difference of 25% is really significant.

I will say Hak's rebounding numbers per minute declined quite markedly after his frosh season (part of the reason was the presence of Carmelo his sophomore season). So maybe Jerami can catch Hak. But rebounds per minute tend to be pretty consistent. Even at Hak's lower numbers his soph, junior and senior seasons, it will take some improvement by JG to catch him.

 

[Knicks411]

Grant had a 13.6% defensive rebounding% last year. That's not all that good; the only big guy he was better than was keita, at 11.4%. He didn't play a ton of minutes, so you don't want to draw too much from it, but he wasn't great on the defensive glass. He was the best offensive rebounder of any of the forwards though.

If Coleman develops enough offensively to play serious minutes next year, we might not be awful on the defensive glass.

 

[RF2044]

Very excited about Jerami's potential. Best of all, he really got his feet wet last year [for a frosh on a veteran laden team]--played extensive minutes, started a bunch of games, etc. Yes, his minutes got cut when Southerland got back, but he won't be a rookie next year--he's played a ton. He also had great bloodlines--not just his dad and uncle, but his brothers were / are good college players, as well.

In order for Jerami to take the next step, he needs to add size / strength, which shouldn't be a problem. Kid has a great frame--very solid starting point.

I agree that he really got after it. But he also fell down a ton, which demonstrates how much he needs the additional strength. I think he is going to have a career progression very much like Hak's -- maybe won't duplicate the numbers exactly, but he'll play a much more prominent role this upcoming year en route to being our best post up 4 since Hak. And I think he'll also show the shooting needed to be an effective stretch 4.

Again, the kid had a great frame coming in. If the work ethic is there, I wouldn't be surprised to see him add 15 pounds of muscle / good weight this offseason.

 

[RF2044]

Grant had a 13.6% defensive rebounding% last year. That's not all that good; the only big guy he was better than was keita, at 11.4%. He didn't play a ton of minutes, so you don't want to draw too much from it, but he wasn't great on the defensive glass. He was the best offensive rebounder of any of the forwards though.

If Coleman develops enough offensively to play serious minutes next year, we might not be awful on the defensive glass.

With the news from Tom yesterday that Rak is returning, we could actually be pretty good on the defensive boards if Coleman takes the next step. These aren't %, but CJ got around 7 last year. We need Coleman to match that. Rak, Grant, Keita--the potential is there for this to be an improved rebounding team.

 

[SoBristol]

Those stat comparisons can show you some things, but is that how you would actually judge Jerami Grant's potential?

Jerami is a couple of inches taller than Kris or CJ, has the frame to add muscle, and seems to be a more fluid athlete than either Kris or CJ. Some players show up as a finished product (physically -- think about Paul Harris & Brandon Triche); others (Damone Brown; Rautins, Hak) are at the opposite extreme. Jerami is going to be in the latter category -- someone who needs to get stronger and will (unlike Keita), and will be much better as he adds muscle.

Jerami is a very good slasher, has good form on his shooting, and is a quick finisher. Kris was highly dependent upon his dominate hand; same for CJ -- Jerami has some ability to use his left. As frosh, Kris had no outside shot & CJ had very little range on his jumper. Jerami is easily a better inside finisher and rebounder than either Kris or CJ as a frosh.

We have some players where you can debate year over year improvement (Cooney? Rak? Keita?); Jerami Grant is about as close as we will get to a lock to develop into a lottery pick.

 

[cuseincincy]

No pressure Jerami!

 

[Knicks411]

With the news from Tom yesterday that Rak is returning, we could actually be pretty good on the defensive boards if Coleman takes the next step. These aren't %, but CJ got around 7 last year. We need Coleman to match that. Rak, Grant, Keita--the potential is there for this to be an improved rebounding team.

I sure hope so, though at this point I just go into the season assuming we will struggle to rebound defensively.

I would expect Coleman to out rebound CJ on a per minute basis, though obviously CJ is going to play a lot more minutes. One thing that will be an interesting potential trade off; if Coleman gets a lot of minutes at the five, then we're almost certainly going to trade some blocked shots (where we are almost always in the top 10 in the country) for some defensive boards.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Agree with everything being said. As mentioned above, I think his main issue will be getting stronger. I am not worried about Grant at all. He showed great promise getting his feet wet this year. Nothing ever was really run for him I bet so it was probably hard for him to fit in at times. He is one of the best and most fluid athletes we've seen here and supposedly works very hard. Rebounding won't be a problem with him if he adds more strength. I hope he is here in 2014-15 because I want to see Grant/Roberson together getting BIG minutes.

 

[CusefanATL]

Jerami Grant will be the best of the 4 in the long run.

Hakim goes down as an all timer at Cuse and I doubt that Grant could have that kind of impact - but he will be the better NBA player IMO.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

Nice work tomcat. I think those are excellent comparisons.

I think reasonable expectations could be drawn by looking at the sophomore stats of the comparison group. Often times there is a progression of roles and responsibilities and it looks like Grant will be following right in the normal SU way. In his soph season he will be the 2nd man with top honors going to CJ, just like most of the others.

I think Grant has huge upside potential, Hak-like. But I don't know that we will see it at SU. This new strategy we have now seems to allow/encourage the blossoming and leaving of big time talent. In a way it is a little sad. But I think it might be 50/50 that Grant will leave, continuing in the line of Fab, Dion, and MCW. If he improves the way I think he will, the trajectory of improvement will highlight his huge potential and possibly make him lottery worthy without having nearly the college careers of his other comparable comrades.

No need to get too worked up about it though because this new strategy has Roberson and McCollough ready to reload.

 

[44doubledees]

I am gonna guess that Jerami does a CJ Fair type of improvement (F to Soph) I am expecting 9 and 6 out of him next year. I rewatched the Indiana game last night and he must have had four blocks, not sure how many he got credited with, on one attmept that Zeller had that was challenged by him, Keita and Southerland he was way above the other two and thus way above Zeller for the block. Just a physical freak. He is going to be way better in the zone than southerland, closes the gap extremely quick.

 

[SoBristol]

I sure hope so, though at this point I just go into the season assuming we will struggle to rebound defensively.

I would expect Coleman to out rebound CJ on a per minute basis, though obviously CJ is going to play a lot more minutes. One thing that will be an interesting potential trade off; if Coleman gets a lot of minutes at the five, then we're almost certainly going to trade some blocked shots (where we are almost always in the top 10 in the country) for some defensive boards.

As Grant develops, our frontline 3 as a group should be strong on the defensive boards, and Grant will get a lot of blocks, regardless of who plays center. We might miss what MCW/BT provided as supplemental rebounders from the guard spots.

The trade I see is between having one really good shooter from deep (JS) to having a number of average (at best) outside shooters, but better inside scoring.

 

[CusefanATL]

Nice work tomcat. I think those are excellent comparisons.

I think reasonable expectations could be drawn by looking at the sophomore stats of the comparison group. Often times there is a progression of roles and responsibilities and it looks like Grant will be following right in the normal SU way. In his soph season he will be the 2nd man with top honors going to CJ, just like most of the others.

I think Grant has huge upside potential, Hak-like. But I don't know that we will see it at SU. This new strategy we have now seems to allow/encourage the blossoming and leaving of big time talent. In a way it is a little sad. But I think it might be 50/50 that Grant will leave, continuing in the line of Fab, Dion, and MCW. If he improves the way I think he will, the trajectory of improvement will highlight his huge potential and possibly make him lottery worthy without having nearly the college careers of his other comparable comrades.

No need to get too worked up about it though because this new strategy has Roberson and McCollough ready to reload.

What happens if Roberson starts over Grant and Rak?

 

[realorange]

I think JG is the better athlete of all the comparisons. He is the best defender of that group as a freshman. His fierce, hardnosed ability and pure basketball sense is above those mentioned. IF he stays more than one more year, I'll go so far as to predict he'll have at least as good stats as Hak did at that point----and maybe better.

 

[cusetown1]

What happens if Roberson starts over Grant and Rak?

Just his rebounding alone will be hard for him not to push for major minutes. Practice will be great, I think he pushes everybody around him to be better rebounders.

 

[El Jefe Syr]

The future seems bright for him. Aside from his skills in drawing fouls, rebounding etc. I love his energy and bball IQ. Both will serve him well. I'm hoping that he can develop an inside-out dynamic with Ennis since he also seems to be high energy with a good understanding of the game to complement his physical talents.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

What happens if Roberson starts over Grant and Rak?

Huh? Then my expectations for Grant probably would not be met. It happens. Some people, notably 'bees, have predicted Roberson to get the start. I don't. I expect Grant to start (or at least get the second most minutes if Rak is given a token) and to be slightly above the stat averages of the comparison group in their sophomore years - those are probably some decent figures.

Also what is not easily quantifiable is the defense. I expect Grant to continue to play excellent D. It's not every year that JB says he has his best frosh defender ever.

It would be a major surprise in my book if Roberson beats out Grant on the depth chart this coming year. Do you think otherwise?

 

[RF2044]

What happens if Roberson starts over Grant and Rak?

If that happens, then i'd still project Grant to play starter's minutes [or near starter's minutes] as the latest offensively gifted super sub.

With players like Rak [ostensibly returning], CJ, Grant, and Roberson, that gives JB a lot of versatility and lineup flexibility.

Hard not to envision next year's team going 9 deep. Big question is: how much will Rak, Roberson, and Coleman play? Because the other 6 are all going to get a heavy infusion of minutes.

 

[tee1222]

What happens if Roberson starts over Grant and Rak?

If it happens, we are beyond blessed. I am not sure people realize how good Roberson will be. He has a lot of Grant in him, rebounding, attacking the rim, but has an inside out game as well. Let's just hope his FT and shot consistency are there early on.

I love Grant's game, and honestly don't care which of them starts, but I will tell you that both will contribute this coming season.
They are both match up nightmares, yet still quick and strong enough to stay with both types of forwards (slashers or power forwards).

Wait til Midnight Madness comes around. You will see that the two of them together are absolute monsters. Throw in the best player on the team in CJ and our forwards are scary.

My guess is that minutes are 60-40 in favor of Grant as he has some key experience already. That said, it really doesn't make a difference which one starts. Dunk, block and rebound fest from all three of them.