a way higher percentage of 4 and 5 star recruits Florida State players play in the NFL than 2 and 3 star recruits Syracuse players
if Syracuse gets better players and becomes a better program, the star measurement will go up later.
the stars lag the actual progress. we don't see that because the 5 star schools have been 5 star schools forever
better players mean a lot. stars don't mean anything because stars are just a bucket of program performance over some number of years.
Millhouse -- I agree stars lag the progress and avg. stars usually goes up after the program rises. I agree better players mean a lot. However, I have to say again that people have short memories and I disagree with your statement that 5 star schools have been 5 star schools forever, just like I disagree with people saying that the SEC will have the best performing teams and, therefore, be the best conference forever.
Recruiting rankings generally don't go back farther than 2003, so we have a little over a decade worth of data and I started there. I used Riv**s rankings, because they were available and others weren't.
Examples:
2003:
Current good teams that did not recruit well that year: Alabama was #49, Ohio State #41, Clemson #67, Baylor #76, Penn State #93.
Current mediocre teams that recruited very well: NC State believe it or not had the #7 ranking, Mississippi State #9, Colorado #19.
SU was #53 for what its worth.
2004:
Alabama #24, Ohio State #16, Clemson #61, Baylor #140, Penn State #29.
NC State #59, Mississippi State #87, Colorado #74
SU was #50 that year.
2005:
Alabama #18, Ohio State #12, Clemson #17, Baylor #59, Penn St. #25
NC State #27, Miss. St. #33, Colorado #43
SU #56
2006:
Alabama #11, Ohio State #12, Clemson #16, Baylor #68, Penn St. #6
NC State #51, Miss St. #46, Colorado #48
SU #52
2007:
Alabama #10, Ohio State #15, Clemson #16, Baylor #64, Penn St. #24
NC State #49, Miss St. #39, Colorado $#32
SU #48
2008:
Alabama #1, Ohio State #4, Clemson #12, Baylor #51, Penn St. #43
NC State #31, Miss St. #44, Colorado #15
SU #48
2009:
Alabama #1, Ohio State #3, Clemson #37, Baylor #55, Penn St. #24
NC State #52, Miss St. #25, Colorado #48
SU #118
2010:
Alabama #5, Ohio State #25, Clemson #19, Baylor #39, Penn St. #12
NC State #34, Miss St. #38, Colorado #66
SU #78
2011:
Alabama #1, Ohio State #11, Clemson #8, Baylor #46, Penn St. #35
NC State #87, Miss St. #44, Colorado #75
SU #76
2012:
Alabama #1, Ohio State #4, Clemson #14, Baylor #45, Penn St. #51
NC State #53, Miss St. #30, Colorado #36
SU #66
2013:
Alabama #1, Ohio State #2, Clemson #14, Baylor #31, Penn St. #43
NC State #47, Miss St. #26, Colorado #68
SU #74
2014:
Alabama #1, Ohio State #3, Clemson #13, Baylor #35, Penn St. #23
NC State #30, Miss St. #39, Colorado $#62
SU #50
Now break it down by team to see the ebb and flow:
Alabama 49, 24, 18, 11, 10, 1, 1, 5, 1, 1, 1, 1
Ohio State 41, 16, 12, 12, 15, 4, 3, 25, 11, 4, 2, 3
Clemson 67, 61, 17, 16, 16, 12, 37, 19, 8, 14, 14, 13
Baylor 76, 140, 59, 68, 64, 61, 55, 39, 46, 45, 31, 35
Penn State 93, 29, 25, 6, 24, 43, 24, 12, 35, 51, 43, 23
NC State: 7, 59, 27, 51, 49, 31, 52, 34, 87, 53, 47, 30
Mississippi State: 9, 87, 33, 46, 39, 44, 25, 38, 44, 30, 26, 39
Colorado: 19, 74, 43, 48, 32, 15, 48, 66, 75, 36, 68, 62
SU: 53, 50, 56, 52, 48, 48, 118, 78, 76, 66, 74, 50
What do you see? Alabama recruiting was good but wasn't dominant until Saban came on board in 2007.
Ohio State recruiting was good under Tressel but not dominant, then started to slip under Fickel and then became dominant under Urban Meyer.
Clemson was inconsistent under Bowden, but became better and consistent under Dabo Swinney after 2008.
Baylor flat out sucked and has become better and better under Art Briles since 2008.
Penn State was good but inconsistent, got worse after JoePa left due to sanction limitations and have now seen an uptick under Franklin.
NC State has been pretty inconsistent under Chuck Amato and Tom O'Brien and Dave Doeren has brought their best class in more than a decade.
Mississippi State had a great class in Jackie Sherrill's last year, followed by being placed on probation, followed by middling recruiting under Sylvester Croom, but had gotten consistently good under Dan Mullen since 2009.
Colorado was a pretty good recruiting team until they left for the Pac-12 accompanied by the coaching change to Embree and then McIntyre.
Syracuse was consistently in the 48-56 ranking range under Coach P and Gerg. Marrone's first class given 45 days on the job was expectedly horrible and was climbing back up when he left. Shafer did well to come in at a 74 ranking with less than a month on the job and this year has the best class in a decade.
This is recruiting, but performance by wins and losses is no different. It wasn't so long ago that Alabama flat out sucked. In 2000 (only 13 years ago) Bama went 3-8; in 2001 7-5; in 2003 4-9; in 2004 6-6; in 2007 (just 6 years ago) 6-7. It is only under Saban that Alabama has consistently dominated the sport. At LSU is was Saban and then Miles that brought that team to being consistently dominant. South Carolina wasn't consistently good until Spurrier. Georgia under Donnan and now Richt.
The SEC has been the best conference for several years, but not even for the entire last decade. A coach or two will leave -- maybe to the pros (Saban? Malzahn?) or maybe just tired of it (Spurrier). The SEC will fall and another conference will rise up to dominate (Big 12 most likely or ACC or Pac 12). It is impressive that the SEC has dominated for this long a stretch, 7 years or so depending on who is looking at it. However, it isn't forever in dominating recruiting or wins and losses.
