Remaining Schedule Prediction Thread

[Dave85]

Based on the remaining schedule I thought it would be interesting to see which games seem most likely to get us to 20 wins and hopefully the NCAA tournament bid.

Our current current Massey composite ranking is 33: College Basketball Ranking Composite

Remaining Schedule with current Massey composite ranking in parens:

H St. Bonaventure (64)
H Eastern Michigan (154)
H Virginia Tech (37)
@ Wake Forest (85)
H Notre Dame (43)
@ #13 Virginia (6)
@ #24 Florida State (20)
H Pittsburgh (152)
H Boston College (77)
@ Pittsburgh (152)
@ Georgia Tech (143)
H #13 Virginia (6)
@ Louisville (34)
H Wake Forest (85)
H NC State (71)
@ #6 Miami (16)
H #5 North Carolina (2)
@ #4 Duke (4)
@ Boston College (77)
H Clemson (27)

I will divide the list into two parts home and away:

H St. Bonaventure (64)
H Eastern Michigan (154)
H Virginia Tech (37)
H Notre Dame (43)
H Pittsburgh (152)
H Boston College (77)
H #13 Virginia (6)
H Wake Forest (85)
H NC State (71)
H #5 North Carolina (2)

Using our Massey rating as a guide, I think we get the following W-L for home games:

Win: St. Bonaventure, Eastern Michigan, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Wake Forest, NC State

Lose: Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina

Our record is now 16-5 with home game wins and losses based on Massey ranking. One or two of these is probably switched but I think it's good enough for this type of analysis.

@ Wake Forest (85)
@ #13 Virginia (6)
@ #24 Florida State (20)
@ Pittsburgh (152)
@ Georgia Tech (143)
@ Louisville (34)
@ #6 Miami (16)
@ #4 Duke (4)
@ Boston College (77)
H Clemson (27)

Win: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech

Lose: Virginia, Florida State, Louisville, Miami, Duke, Boston College, Clemson

Wow, it's closer than I thought it would be. This puts us at 19-12 clearly a bubble team. There's always a chance 1 or 2 flip. And who knows how good Louisville will be with Coach Sleezebag gone. An away win at Louisville might be the deciding 20th win.

 

[Cusefan0307]

FWIW Ken Pomeroy has us favored in 12 of the remaining games which would put us at 22 wins.

Also we should beat Notre Dame and Virginia Tech at home. We will be favored against VPI. I’m not sold on us losing to UNC this year. They aren’t nearly as tough inside.

 

[Dave85]

FWIW Ken Pomeroy has us favored in 12 of the remaining games which would put us at 22 wins.

Also we should beat Notre Dame and Virginia Tech at home. We will be favored against VPI. I’m not sold on us losing to UNC this year. They aren’t nearly as tough inside.

I did not want to be too positive with my original predictions. I like what you are saying. I was hoping people who provide some more insights based on match-ups and other factors.

 

[Newhouser]

FWIW Ken Pomeroy has us favored in 12 of the remaining games which would put us at 22 wins.

Also we should beat Notre Dame and Virginia Tech at home. We will be favored against VPI. I’m not sold on us losing to UNC this year. They aren’t nearly as tough inside.

Wow you are that confident we will win either of those games let alone both?

 

[Cusefan0307]

Wow you are that confident we will win either of those games let alone both?

I didn’t say I guarantee we will win, but people are overrating VPI on the board. We will be favored over them and Notre Dame according to KenPom and as good as they are offensively they are bad defensively.

I think people are still judging Notre Dame on their preseason ranking. They have been pretty bad in the OOC losing to Indiana and Ball State. These are very winnable games.

 

[jncuse]

"As of now", analytically the 3 biggest toss up games of the entire ACC season will be our first 3 games. Quite the anomaly. (As an aside this is pulled from RPIForecast which uses Sagarin)

Needless to say those first 3 games are very important.

While they have us favoured to win 12 more games (22), they only predict 21 overall wins. That is because of 52%, 54%, 58%, and 59% games, which could go either way.

The get in line for us will probably be to win 20 games, which currently projects as follows. In that scenario our RPI projects in the mid 30's, due to our strong record against what RPI perceives as an outstandingOOC schedule. I think the "weaknesses" in the RPI SOS metric are helping us. While the RPI will not kill anybody, something in the 30's also makes it hard for a P5 to be killed.

In reality, this team is still a mystery to me. We are young, and lack depth. In my mind we win somewhere between 6 and 11 games in the ACC.

 

[cpatrocks]

30-1. Regular Season
9-0 Post Season.
party time.

end thread.

 

[Dave85]

30-1. Regular Season
9-0 Post Season.
party time.

end thread.

Microphone drop, exits stage

 

[Sgt Cuse]

From the schedule and ratings there, it looks like our potential worst loss of Eastern Michigan isn't quite as pathetic as the name sounds. Still would be excellent to avoid that talking point. I'd prefer not to have to explain away the Bonas either.

It would be a nice NCAAT touch to be have the worst SU loss be in-conference. Would be a nice change from last year. While the committee didn't seem to cut us any breaks for losing to rivals last year, it matters in the national dialogue. To say SU's worst loss is in the ACC to Pitt, or at GT, seems like "worst loss" talk and not "bad loss" talk (and thanks BC for beating Duke and taking them out of this discussion of bad losses).

 

[cuseinseattle]

Based on the remaining schedule I thought it would be interesting to see which games seem most likely to get us to 20 wins and hopefully the NCAA tournament bid.

Our current current Massey composite ranking is 33: College Basketball Ranking Composite

Remaining Schedule with current Massey composite ranking in parens:

H St. Bonaventure (64)
H Eastern Michigan (154)
H Virginia Tech (37)
@ Wake Forest (85)
H Notre Dame (43)
@ #13 Virginia (6)
@ #24 Florida State (20)
H Pittsburgh (152)
H Boston College (77)
@ Pittsburgh (152)
@ Georgia Tech (143)
H #13 Virginia (6)
@ Louisville (34)
H Wake Forest (85)
H NC State (71)
@ #6 Miami (16)
H #5 North Carolina (2)
@ #4 Duke (4)
@ Boston College (77)
H Clemson (27)

I will divide the list into two parts home and away:

H St. Bonaventure (64)
H Eastern Michigan (154)
H Virginia Tech (37)
H Notre Dame (43)
H Pittsburgh (152)
H Boston College (77)
H #13 Virginia (6)
H Wake Forest (85)
H NC State (71)
H #5 North Carolina (2)

Using our Massey rating as a guide, I think we get the following W-L for home games:

Win: St. Bonaventure, Eastern Michigan, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Wake Forest, NC State

Lose: Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina

Our record is now 16-5 with home game wins and losses based on Massey ranking. One or two of these is probably switched but I think it's good enough for this type of analysis.

@ Wake Forest (85)
@ #13 Virginia (6)
@ #24 Florida State (20)
@ Pittsburgh (152)
@ Georgia Tech (143)
@ Louisville (34)
@ #6 Miami (16)
@ #4 Duke (4)
@ Boston College (77)
H Clemson (27)

Win: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech

Lose: Virginia, Florida State, Louisville, Miami, Duke, Boston College, Clemson

Wow, it's closer than I thought it would be. This puts us at 19-12 clearly a bubble team. There's always a chance 1 or 2 flip. And who knows how good Louisville will be with Coach Sleezebag gone. An away win at Louisville might be the deciding 20th win.

Thanks for putting together this list. This team is so hard to predict. I think we end up losing two games at home and I'm going to guess UNC and UVA but it might not be them. I also think we beat Clemson on the road to go along with the other 3 so 4 road wins in conference. So that would leave us with 8 conference loses. That is my things go right for us scenario. If we just play good defense and rebound like we have we will be fine. It's amazing how many games you can win if you play good defense, rebound and have a little offense. Tim Izzo basically built a program around that.

 

[blust2i3d4]

View attachment 117809

"As of now", analytically the 3 biggest toss up games of the entire ACC season will be our first 3 games. Quite the anomaly. (As an aside this is pulled from RPIForecast which uses Sagarin)

Needless to say those first 3 games are very important.


View attachment 117810

While they have us favoured to win 12 more games (22), they only predict 21 overall wins. That is because of 52%, 54%, 58%, and 59% games, which could go either way.

The get in line for us will probably be to win 20 games, which currently projects as follows. In that scenario our RPI projects in the mid 30's, due to our strong record against what RPI perceives as an outstandingOOC schedule. I think the "weaknesses" in the RPI SOS metric are helping us. While the RPI will not kill anybody, something in the 30's also makes it hard for a P5 to be killed.
View attachment 117811


In reality, this team is still a mystery to me. We are young, and lack depth. In my mind we win somewhere between 6 and 11 games in the ACC.

If we use today's RPI (SU at 7th), we will lose two games in the future. To UNC (1st) and Duke (2nd).

 

[MSOrange]

It's fun to look ahead but I'm actually doing really well at taking it one game at a time this year. Just having a good time watching them play better than I projected leading into the season. So far, it's like walking down the aisle with Roseanne Barr and then when it's time to kiss the bride, you lift up the veil and see Kate Upton.

 

[upperdeck]

we can play solid enough that a good shooting effort can beat most of these teams.. our normal shooting effort also means we could lose all but 4-5 of these.. we are in a spot that we have to play 4 guys who normally cant score outside of 2 ft and that really puts a cramp on the offense..

 

[Orangezoo]

If Sidibe gets healthy by VPI, I say we finish with 23 wins going into the ACCT. If not I am at 20 with an 8-10 ACC record.

 

[bnoro]

RealTimeRPI has us going 22-9 (10-8). I'd sign up for that today.

 

[Sherman20]

Based on the remaining schedule I thought it would be interesting to see which games seem most likely to get us to 20 wins and hopefully the NCAA tournament bid.

Our current current Massey composite ranking is 33: College Basketball Ranking Composite

Remaining Schedule with current Massey composite ranking in parens:

H St. Bonaventure (64)
H Eastern Michigan (154)
H Virginia Tech (37)
@ Wake Forest (85)
H Notre Dame (43)
@ #13 Virginia (6)
@ #24 Florida State (20)
H Pittsburgh (152)
H Boston College (77)
@ Pittsburgh (152)
@ Georgia Tech (143)
H #13 Virginia (6)
@ Louisville (34)
H Wake Forest (85)
H NC State (71)
@ #6 Miami (16)
H #5 North Carolina (2)
@ #4 Duke (4)
@ Boston College (77)
H Clemson (27)

I will divide the list into two parts home and away:

H St. Bonaventure (64)
H Eastern Michigan (154)
H Virginia Tech (37)
H Notre Dame (43)
H Pittsburgh (152)
H Boston College (77)
H #13 Virginia (6)
H Wake Forest (85)
H NC State (71)
H #5 North Carolina (2)

Using our Massey rating as a guide, I think we get the following W-L for home games:

Win: St. Bonaventure, Eastern Michigan, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Wake Forest, NC State

Lose: Virginia Tech, Notre Dame, Virginia, North Carolina

Our record is now 16-5 with home game wins and losses based on Massey ranking. One or two of these is probably switched but I think it's good enough for this type of analysis.

@ Wake Forest (85)
@ #13 Virginia (6)
@ #24 Florida State (20)
@ Pittsburgh (152)
@ Georgia Tech (143)
@ Louisville (34)
@ #6 Miami (16)
@ #4 Duke (4)
@ Boston College (77)
H Clemson (27)

Win: Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Georgia Tech

Lose: Virginia, Florida State, Louisville, Miami, Duke, Boston College, Clemson

Wow, it's closer than I thought it would be. This puts us at 19-12 clearly a bubble team. There's always a chance 1 or 2 flip. And who knows how good Louisville will be with Coach Sleezebag gone. An away win at Louisville might be the deciding 20th win.

That’s a good breakdown. But there’s no way we’ll lose to both Va Tech and ND in those early home games. We’ll win at least one of those—even though both are close to being top 25 teams. I think you can also bank on a possible upset of UNC or Virginia at home. We usually find a way to get big home wins against top conference foes every season. We should be able to steal one more road game as well—probably at Florida State or BC. And I gotta believe we can beat Clemson at home in the season finale. We’re not gonna lose that one, even if Clemson is solid this season. I envision 21 or 22 wins total—if we can avoid major injuries and get Sidibe’s knees healthy.

 

[Dave85]

That’s a good breakdown. But there’s no way we’ll lose to both Va Tech and ND in those early home games. We’ll win at least one of those—even though both are close to being top 25 teams. I think you can also bank on a possible upset of UNC or Virginia at home. We usually find a way to get big home wins against top conference foes every season. We should be able to steal one more road game as well—probably at Florida State or BC. And I gotta believe we can beat Clemson at home in the season finale. We’re not gonna lose that one, even if Clemson is solid this season. I envision 21 or 22 wins total—if we can avoid major injuries and get Sidibe’s knees healthy.

I don't disagree. I was just basing my estimate on relative Massey ratings. I just want to see us get 20 wins. Anything above that is gravy!

The injury bug has me worried. We have 3 key players on offense. And the ones playing are key on defense. Hopefully the ship will stay afloat.