Rickie Collins

[CbusCuse]

I actually feel really confident that Nixon will call plays to maximize Collins ability. I expect to see some easy throws early to settle him down and eventually some play action deep shots. I also expect to see the return of the RB screen game.

Obviously, We need to establish the run with Willis and (I can’t believe I’m going to type this) if the OL can dominate the LOS like we did against Clemson, we’ll be fine.

I think Fran is going to lean on his receivers to make plays and have Collins throw some “go get em” balls.

Defensively we need to get pressure and not allow their QB to get time to throw. Our DBs really need to step up.

Agree. Duke has been susceptible to getting beat in the passing game so we need to take advantage of that.

I also want to add that our pass rushers that do get in for a hurry on Mensah, also need to be able to make a tackle. They need to come in under control, break down a bit and not let every QB side step the sack and get away. We have 4 sacks total in 4 games which is unacceptable. I feel like we have had at least 2 other times a game where we were there for a sack but couldn't finish the play and make the tackle.

 

[RF2044]

Why is SU96?

SOURCE?!?!?!?

 

[Offthedome]

But if you get the ball first and score a touchdown then do an onside kick and kick a field goal you’re up 10-0 right away and end up whooping Clemson’s butt.

No lie. Before the game I was standing in my kitchen hoping we'd get the ball first in order to score and put the pressure on a reeling Clemson team. I willed that sucker into being.

 

[ToddNTexas5]

I actually feel really confident that Nixon will call plays to maximize Collins ability. I expect to see some easy throws early to settle him down and eventually some play action deep shots. I also expect to see the return of the RB screen game.

Obviously, We need to establish the run with Willis and (I can’t believe I’m going to type this) if the OL can dominate the LOS like we did against Clemson, we’ll be fine.

I think Fran is going to lean on his receivers to make plays and have Collins throw some “go get em” balls.

Defensively we need to get pressure and not allow their QB to get time to throw. Our DBs really need to step up.

I actually feel really confident that Nixon will call plays to maximize Collins ability. I expect to see some easy throws early to settle him down and eventually some play action deep shots. I also expect to see the return of the RB screen game.

Obviously, We need to establish the run with Willis and (I can’t believe I’m going to type this) if the OL can dominate the LOS like we did against Clemson, we’ll be fine.

I think Fran is going to lean on his receivers to make plays and have Collins throw some “go get em” balls.

Defensively we need to get pressure and not allow their QB to get time to throw. Our DBs really need to step up.

We know Rickie isn't afraid the throw that "go get em" ball either! That throw to JRS in the end zone was some major "aura" as my kids say!

 

[baggerbob]

Agree. Duke has been susceptible to getting beat in the passing game so we need to take advantage of that.

I also want to add that our pass rushers that do get in for a hurry on Mensah, also need to be able to make a tackle. They need to come in under control, break down a bit and not let every QB side step the sack and get away. We have 4 sacks total in 4 games which is unacceptable. I feel like we have had at least 2 other times a game where we were there for a sack but couldn't finish the play and make the tackle.

A few delayed blitzes by our freshman LB will have Mensah hearing footsteps every time he goes back to pass.

 

[Atlcuse44]

A few delayed blitzes by our freshman LB will have Mensah hearing footsteps every time he goes back to pass.

We know Duke will also do everything they can to get Ricky rattled. I expect them to blitz a lot. As already mentioned by others, Ricky will need some quick short passes to get comfortable.

 

[Strathless]

Stats are great. But I admit I don’t understand how deferring has a greater chance of getting an extra possession.

It stems from the fact that no one has the ball to start the game. There is a slight advantage gained by potentially having back to back possessions before and after halftime. Mathematically, it always makes sense to defer. But players aren’t robots, especially at this level, and coaches must weigh that advantage against other considerations (such as scoring first).

 

[Ozone!]

 

[CbusCuse]

It stems from the fact that no one has the ball to start the game. There is a slight advantage gained by potentially having back to back possessions before and after halftime. Mathematically, it always makes sense to defer. But players aren’t robots, especially at this level, and coaches must weigh that advantage against other considerations (such as scoring first).

And with Clemson in the situation they were in, Fran knew a score first by SU would release a lot of doubt and negativity in the team and their fans. Smart move.

 

[721Comstock]

And with Clemson in the situation they were in, Fran knew a score first by SU would elease a lot of doubt and negativity in the team and their fans. Smart move.

Yeah, but - that was not Fran's call.

Clemson won the coin toss, and deferred.

Fortunately we capitalized on it, and then the onsides kick was brilliant!

 

[CbusCuse]

Yeah, but - that was not Fran's call.

Clemson won the coin toss, and deferred.

Fortunately we capitalized on it, and then the onsides kick was brilliant!

Ah that's True. Guess Dabo had more confidence in his Defense to start out well and get a stop then he did in his offense to go out and score, which makes sense. But I wouldn't be surprised if Fran would have made the same call and took the ball first as well.

 

[All4SU]

It stems from the fact that no one has the ball to start the game. There is a slight advantage gained by potentially having back to back possessions before and after halftime. Mathematically, it always makes sense to defer. But players aren’t robots, especially at this level, and coaches must weigh that advantage against other considerations (such as scoring first).

There are many posters here smarter than I am, and I’m sure even some who didn’t rely on a fraternity brother to help him breeze through Probabilities & Statistics.

Just the same, my pea brain head doesn’t understand it. I get the idea that deferring MIGHT give you back to back possessions - with a 20 minute break in between. But at the same time, taking the ball first, in a finite window of time (30 minutes), suggests to me that you have an increased chance of having more possessions in the first half than your opponent. Assuming possessions alternate, of course. And while it’s obviously true that the team which defers may grab an extra possession in the second half, I don’t see how it could lead to more possessions over the course of the game.

I always view the take/defer decision as one which must be made on several factors: relative strength of defense; relative strength of offense; weather conditions, when appropriate; strength of special team; home or away; emotional decisions, and “gut feel” for the players/game.

But, like I said, I’m looking at this like a fan. Not a statistician.

 

[Tony DeFranco]

This isn’t grade school. We all support Ricky Collins. By mentioning some of our concerns and observations doesn’t negate our support for him or Syracuse football

We haven’t really seen Collins play - yeah that one INT looked awful but the difference between Angeli at Tennessee and 3 weeks later at Clemson was beyond drastic - I hope we have a lot of designed runs for him and deeps routes - feel like we have as good a receiving group as any team

 

[OttoinGrotto]

There are many posters here smarter than I am, and I’m sure even some who didn’t rely on a fraternity brother to help him breeze through Probabilities & Statistics.

Just the same, my pea brain head doesn’t understand it. I get the idea that deferring MIGHT give you back to back possessions - with a 20 minute break in between. But at the same time, taking the ball first, in a finite window of time (30 minutes), suggests to me that you have an increased chance of having more possessions in the first half than your opponent. Assuming possessions alternate, of course. And while it’s obviously true that the team which defers may grab an extra possession in the second half, I don’t see how it could lead to more possessions over the course of the game.

I always view the take/defer decision as one which must be made on several factors: relative strength of defense; relative strength of offense; weather conditions, when appropriate; strength of special team; home or away; emotional decisions, and “gut feel” for the players/game.

But, like I said, I’m looking at this like a fan. Not a statistician.

You explained your thinking really well.

I'm usually a believer in playing the odds. That's why I favor going for it on 4th more often, for example.

But the kickoff possession is a mindset over numbers thing to me. I get the rationale and wisdom behind wanting the ball to start the second half. But I really, really value at the college level starting games strong and putting your opponent on their heels as soon as possible.

Confidence has a lot to do with how football teams perform. An immediate score raises the confidence of your football team. Playing from behind often reduces the confidence of your opponent. Get your confidence high and get your opponent feeling low and the scoreboard has a good chance of working out. We just saw this play out on the Clemson game. They expected to shut us down from the jump, failed spectacularly, and their offense was rattled not seeing the ball for the first time before they were down two scores. Instant pressure on an already fragile squad. It was perfect.

TL;DR - just take the ball and kick the other team in the dick right away

 

[Strathless]

There are many posters here smarter than I am, and I’m sure even some who didn’t rely on a fraternity brother to help him breeze through Probabilities & Statistics.

Just the same, my pea brain head doesn’t understand it. I get the idea that deferring MIGHT give you back to back possessions - with a 20 minute break in between. But at the same time, taking the ball first, in a finite window of time (30 minutes), suggests to me that you have an increased chance of having more possessions in the first half than your opponent. Assuming possessions alternate, of course. And while it’s obviously true that the team which defers may grab an extra possession in the second half, I don’t see how it could lead to more possessions over the course of the game.

I always view the take/defer decision as one which must be made on several factors: relative strength of defense; relative strength of offense; weather conditions, when appropriate; strength of special team; home or away; emotional decisions, and “gut feel” for the players/game.

But, like I said, I’m looking at this like a fan. Not a statistician.

Yeah, I think people can get too lost in the sauce on analytics. I've had professors swear straight up that there is no such thing as "getting hot" in basketball, and that the entire concept is just fluctuation around a mean. While I get that accounts for lots of variability, I do not believe you can take actual players out of the game. Thoughts and emotions have a real impact on execution and production, and I won't be convinced otherwise.

So, to agree with others above, when you can jump out to a 10-point lead before the other team touches the ball, that dick kick reverberates for the rest of the game.

Also, to stay on topic in this thread I'm cautiously optimistic about Rickie coming in. I think the rest of the team is capable of executing a level that takes a lot of pressure off him and that Coach Nixon will put him in favorable spots to get in rhythm and exploit mismatches (especially on the outside with Duke's undersized corners). Let's go!

 

[All4SU]

Yeah, I think people can get too lost in the sauce on analytics. I've had professors swear straight up that there is no such thing as "getting hot" in basketball, and that the entire concept is just fluctuation around a mean. While I get that accounts for lots of variability, I do not believe you can take actual players out of the game. Thoughts and emotions have a real impact on execution and production, and I won't be convinced otherwise.

So, to agree with others above, when you can jump out to a 10-point lead before the other team touches the ball, that dick kick reverberates for the rest of the game.

Also, to stay on topic in this thread I'm cautiously optimistic about Rickie coming in. I think the rest of the team is capable of executing a level that takes a lot of pressure off him and that Coach Nixon will put him in favorable spots to get in rhythm and exploit mismatches (especially on the outside with Duke's undersized corners). Let's go!

See now this guy sounds like one of those statistics smart guys I was talking about. What are the odds of that! I still believe I can win coin flips with the old, “Tails Never Fails” approach. PS - it failed me. A lot.

 

[Archbold44]

You explained your thinking really well.

I'm usually a believer in playing the odds. That's why I favor going for it on 4th more often, for example.

But the kickoff possession is a mindset over numbers thing to me. I get the rationale and wisdom behind wanting the ball to start the second half. But I really, really value at the college level starting games strong and putting your opponent on their heels as soon as possible.

Confidence has a lot to do with how football teams perform. An immediate score raises the confidence of your football team. Playing from behind often reduces the confidence of your opponent. Get your confidence high and get your opponent feeling low and the scoreboard has a good chance of working out. We just saw this play out on the Clemson game. They expected to shut us down from the jump, failed spectacularly, and their offense was rattled not seeing the ball for the first time before they were down two scores. Instant pressure on an already fragile squad. It was perfect.

TL;DR - just take the ball and kick the other team in the dick right away

If you have a good defense, I can see wanting to start on that side of the ball.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

If you have a good defense, I can see wanting to start on that side of the ball.

Agreed, I just suspect that's less likely at the college football level.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Yeah, but - that was not Fran's call.

Clemson won the coin toss, and deferred.

Fortunately we capitalized on it, and then the onsides kick was brilliant!

Shh. Stop with the facts.

 

[CA Monk]

There are many posters here smarter than I am, and I’m sure even some who didn’t rely on a fraternity brother to help him breeze through Probabilities & Statistics.

Just the same, my pea brain head doesn’t understand it. I get the idea that deferring MIGHT give you back to back possessions - with a 20 minute break in between. But at the same time, taking the ball first, in a finite window of time (30 minutes), suggests to me that you have an increased chance of having more possessions in the first half than your opponent. Assuming possessions alternate, of course. And while it’s obviously true that the team which defers may grab an extra possession in the second half, I don’t see how it could lead to more possessions over the course of the game.

I always view the take/defer decision as one which must be made on several factors: relative strength of defense; relative strength of offense; weather conditions, when appropriate; strength of special team; home or away; emotional decisions, and “gut feel” for the players/game.

But, like I said, I’m looking at this like a fan. Not a statistician.

Sorry Charlie, all the math underpinning this theorem is on the pay side.

 

[TexanMark]

We know Rickie isn't afraid the throw that "go get em" ball either! That throw to JRS in the end zone was some major "aura" as my kids say!

Doped Rickie didn't have skibidi rizz there, that throw was bussin and no cap I was delulu when it was caught.

 

[orangefog]

Glad Rickie didn't have skibidi rizz there, that throw was bussin and no cap I was delulu when it was caught.

 

[RF2044]

I know that this is a far cry from him being experienced, but I am glad that Rickie has gotten into two games in a row prior to this weekend.

I'm glad that after having the jitters and throwing a bad ball for an INT against Colgate, that he's settled down and thrown two TD passes since.

I'm glad that despite being thrown to the wolves, that he helped extend our lead on the road / in a hostile environment.

I'm glad he had to play an extended period of time, in a time when the game mattered [unlike mop up duty with a big lead against Colgate].

I'm glad that he spent the entire offseason -- including spring practice -- as QB #1, and that this time helped foster some familiarity with his teammtes. Thsi shouldn't be like some break-glass-in-case-of-emergency backup who never should see the field, and has to BUILD familiarity with the first stringers.

I'm glad that he has the entire week to get mentally ready to start, and to get on the same page with the first team offense.

And I'm glad that he and Angeli are close, because I think Angeli will help him be ready / prepared.

 

[Todoubled23]

We know Rickie isn't afraid the throw that "go get em" ball either! That throw to JRS in the end zone was some major "aura" as my kids say!

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Doped Rickie didn't have skibidi rizz there, that throw was bussin and no cap I was delulu when it was caught.

Bet?