Rickie Collins | Page 40 | Syracusefan.com
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Rickie Collins

There are many posters here smarter than I am, and I’m sure even some who didn’t rely on a fraternity brother to help him breeze through Probabilities & Statistics.

Just the same, my pea brain head doesn’t understand it. I get the idea that deferring MIGHT give you back to back possessions - with a 20 minute break in between. But at the same time, taking the ball first, in a finite window of time (30 minutes), suggests to me that you have an increased chance of having more possessions in the first half than your opponent. Assuming possessions alternate, of course. And while it’s obviously true that the team which defers may grab an extra possession in the second half, I don’t see how it could lead to more possessions over the course of the game.

I always view the take/defer decision as one which must be made on several factors: relative strength of defense; relative strength of offense; weather conditions, when appropriate; strength of special team; home or away; emotional decisions, and “gut feel” for the players/game.

But, like I said, I’m looking at this like a fan. Not a statistician.
Sorry Charlie, all the math underpinning this theorem is on the pay side.
 
Glad Rickie didn't have skibidi rizz there, that throw was bussin and no cap I was delulu when it was caught.
Clint Eastwood Coffee GIF
 
I know that this is a far cry from him being experienced, but I am glad that Rickie has gotten into two games in a row prior to this weekend.

I'm glad that after having the jitters and throwing a bad ball for an INT against Colgate, that he's settled down and thrown two TD passes since.

I'm glad that despite being thrown to the wolves, that he helped extend our lead on the road / in a hostile environment.

I'm glad he had to play an extended period of time, in a time when the game mattered [unlike mop up duty with a big lead against Colgate].

I'm glad that he spent the entire offseason -- including spring practice -- as QB #1, and that this time helped foster some familiarity with his teammtes. Thsi shouldn't be like some break-glass-in-case-of-emergency backup who never should see the field, and has to BUILD familiarity with the first stringers.

I'm glad that he has the entire week to get mentally ready to start, and to get on the same page with the first team offense.

And I'm glad that he and Angeli are close, because I think Angeli will help him be ready / prepared.
 
Yeah, I think people can get too lost in the sauce on analytics. I've had professors swear straight up that there is no such thing as "getting hot" in basketball, and that the entire concept is just fluctuation around a mean. While I get that accounts for lots of variability, I do not believe you can take actual players out of the game. Thoughts and emotions have a real impact on execution and production, and I won't be convinced otherwise.

So, to agree with others above, when you can jump out to a 10-point lead before the other team touches the ball, that dick kick reverberates for the rest of the game.

Also, to stay on topic in this thread I'm cautiously optimistic about Rickie coming in. I think the rest of the team is capable of executing a level that takes a lot of pressure off him and that Coach Nixon will put him in favorable spots to get in rhythm and exploit mismatches (especially on the outside with Duke's undersized corners). Let's go!
Those professors never met Chuck Knoblauch
 
Yeah, I think people can get too lost in the sauce on analytics. I've had professors swear straight up that there is no such thing as "getting hot" in basketball, and that the entire concept is just fluctuation around a mean. While I get that accounts for lots of variability, I do not believe you can take actual players out of the game. Thoughts and emotions have a real impact on execution and production, and I won't be convinced otherwise.

So, to agree with others above, when you can jump out to a 10-point lead before the other team touches the ball, that dick kick reverberates for the rest of the game.

Also, to stay on topic in this thread I'm cautiously optimistic about Rickie coming in. I think the rest of the team is capable of executing a level that takes a lot of pressure off him and that Coach Nixon will put him in favorable spots to get in rhythm and exploit mismatches (especially on the outside with Duke's undersized corners). Let's go!
Man I’ve played games of basketball where I couldn’t hit anything and I’ve played games where no matter what I threw up it was going in, probably without touching the rim.

Anybody who says you can’t get hot in basketball hasn’t played basketball. If you hit a basket and get the impression that short dude defending you cannot guard you? Confidence goes up, ball goes in.
 
Man I’ve played games of basketball where I couldn’t hit anything and I’ve played games where no matter what I threw up it was going in, probably without touching the rim.

Anybody who says you can’t get hot in basketball hasn’t played basketball. If you hit a basket and get the impression that short dude defending you cannot guard you? Confidence goes up, ball goes in.
I can confirm this as the short dude defending you that can't guard you. I've been the confidence boost for many weekend warriors who went home feeling unstoppable.

My ego boosting defense has likely led to promotions at work and pregnancies at home, perhaps both.
 
You explained your thinking really well.

I'm usually a believer in playing the odds. That's why I favor going for it on 4th more often, for example.

But the kickoff possession is a mindset over numbers thing to me. I get the rationale and wisdom behind wanting the ball to start the second half. But I really, really value at the college level starting games strong and putting your opponent on their heels as soon as possible.

Confidence has a lot to do with how football teams perform. An immediate score raises the confidence of your football team. Playing from behind often reduces the confidence of your opponent. Get your confidence high and get your opponent feeling low and the scoreboard has a good chance of working out. We just saw this play out on the Clemson game. They expected to shut us down from the jump, failed spectacularly, and their offense was rattled not seeing the ball for the first time before they were down two scores. Instant pressure on an already fragile squad. It was perfect.

TL;DR - just take the ball and kick the other team in the dick right away
I think it all has to do with mindset more than anything. If a team can score going into half and then score on the first possession, that is demoralizing after all the supposed half time adjustments. That is a 10-14 point swing in just a few minutes of game time.
 
Steve and Rickie are both pocket passers. The Texas kid is a true dual threat QB
Agree. However, My hot take for Saturday though is that Rickie will be more of a dual threat QB than he's ever been or will be for the rest of the season. Rewatch every piece of media Fran and Nixon have put out this week. Slinging the ball, arm strength, offense not changing, going on and on about Rickie being a great passer.

With a Duke defense that sucks this is the perfect bait and switch for tomorrow which is the most Fran Brown thing to do. Have Rickie tuck the ball and run alot when Duke over pursues on blitzes or drops 8 into coverage
 
Steve and Rickie are both pocket passers. The Texas kid is a true dual threat
I think Jakhari Williams is dual threat too

In Carney's case I'd really like to see only 4 regular season appearances along with the bowl game to save a year. He reminds me of Riley Leonard and I hope we can keep him here.

The old system might have helped us in this case. After spring ball '26 the 2nd string guy between Collins and Carney might be a transfer. That isn't an option now. Now both need to think about the prospect of Angeli around in '26 and '27.

Reality says we lose some QBs. I think Jakhari Williams has a decision. Does he want to get a degree here and probably get no higher than 2nd or 3rd in the depth chart or head out after the season for a G6 program? I'd like to see him get some run this year to have tape. He is still young so staying in 25-26 could be a great option too...he has a big decision at the end of the season.
 
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having lost your starter and expecting rickie to run more you best coach him to go to the ground before contact.
For sure. Exactly why you don't want to play that way against Tenn or Clemson or Miami or ND. Those D's are loaded with NFL caliber individual players and all it takes is one hit from them. That ain't Duke though. Heard one of their insiders say Duke missed 23 tackles or something crazy like that last week.
 
I know that this is a far cry from him being experienced, but I am glad that Rickie has gotten into two games in a row prior to this weekend.

I'm glad that after having the jitters and throwing a bad ball for an INT against Colgate, that he's settled down and thrown two TD passes since.

I'm glad that despite being thrown to the wolves, that he helped extend our lead on the road / in a hostile environment.

I'm glad he had to play an extended period of time, in a time when the game mattered [unlike mop up duty with a big lead against Colgate].

I'm glad that he spent the entire offseason -- including spring practice -- as QB #1, and that this time helped foster some familiarity with his teammtes. Thsi shouldn't be like some break-glass-in-case-of-emergency backup who never should see the field, and has to BUILD familiarity with the first stringers.

I'm glad that he has the entire week to get mentally ready to start, and to get on the same page with the first team offense.

And I'm glad that he and Angeli are close, because I think Angeli will help him be ready / prepared.
 
Agree. However, My hot take for Saturday though is that Rickie will be more of a dual threat QB than he's ever been or will be for the rest of the season. Rewatch every piece of media Fran and Nixon have put out this week. Slinging the ball, arm strength, offense not changing, going on and on about Rickie being a great passer.

With a Duke defense that sucks this is the perfect bait and switch for tomorrow which is the most Fran Brown thing to do. Have Rickie tuck the ball and run alot when Duke over pursues on blitzes or drops 8 into coverage
The game plan tomorrow should be pretty straightforward here. Running the ball with Willis/Nixon and a dose of Collins running it too will open up short/easy passes to the strength of this team, your pass catchers. Running the ball early and often will hopefully limit the Duke possessions and take pressure off of Collins. Keep it simple.
 
Is he a running threat? I just read an article about how we will be seeing alot more designed QB runs with Collins, but I thought I had heard and I think even Coach Fran said he's not really a running QB?
Looked pretty smooth on a few runs against Colgate; not sure how well that will translate, but it looks like he can pick up some first downs for sure
 
The game plan tomorrow should be pretty straightforward here. Running the ball with Willis/Nixon and a dose of Collins running it too will open up short/easy passes to the strength of this team, your pass catchers. Running the ball early and often will hopefully limit the Duke possessions and take pressure off of Collins. Keep it simple.
So you are NOT expecting a play action drop back deep pass like McPherson/RMoore in 1987 against Penn State to start the game? I am. Manny talked about having to respect our passing game--that means he is expecting us to be run heavy. Trying to put pressure on us that they will be ready for our passing game, etc., even with Rickie. I think we come out bombs away. The coaches that went for two against Tennessee and kicked an onside kick last week are not about to run the ball down Duke's throat to protect Rickie's feelings.
 
I think Q. Williams is dual threat too

In Carney's case I'd really like to see only 4 regular season appearances along with the bowl game to save a year. He reminds me of Riley Leonard and I hope we can keep him here.

The old system might have helped us in this case. After spring ball '26 the 2nd string guy between Collins and Carney might be a transfer. That isn't an option now. Now both need to think about the prospect of Angeli around in '26 and '27.

Reality says we lose some QBs. I think Q. Williams has a decision. Does he want to get a degree here and probably get no higher than 2nd or 3rd in the depth chart or head out after the season for a G6 program? I'd like to see him get some run this year to have tape. He is still young so staying in 25-26 could be a great option too...he has a big decision at the end of the season.
Are you talking about Jakhari?
 

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