Roster set...expectations?

[Brooky03]

I was looking in Conference play where TT was under water. I think a lot of people love TT because they see that he scores so easily, but it's hard to find any other strengths he has.

His non conference stats significantly inflated the season he had. He also had the highest usage rate on the team.

His per 100 possession stats aren't as good, win shares/40 min and Box/PM.

His conference stats were still really good, though. He was sitting at 51% from the field and dropping 20 points per 40 min, so he wasn't getting consistently shutdown. Roberson had a freak year from the field at 63% in conference (hard to miss putback dunks I guess). Even so, you'd rather have TT playing offense for you than Roberson and the decision wouldn't be a hard one to make.

TT's usage was high, but so was his efficiency. A high usage rate is only bad if you're inefficient, and he wasn't.

He's not a complete player and has a lot of work to do on defense, but his offense is about as polished as we've ever seen at PF (Center I suppose) from a Freshman in a long time.

 

[reedny]

This was my biggest concern going into last season and it was answered in an uglier way than anyone on here could have predicted.

So I'm calling it the #1 thing to watch this fall, too. Right now I'd have to be crazy to be optimistic. It seems like a similar situation to last year with a million new faces to integrate into the team culture and the defense. Plus there's been a staff shakeup.

So maybe they'll come together and play well. But there's a steep learning curve for everyone, especially graduate transfers and freshman who the coach expects to lean on.

I agree. There are too many uncertainties to make predictions. The OP declares that the roster is "set". Unfortunately, the offensive and defensive rotations are anything but.

Guard play is a big predictor of team success, especially late in the year. I think we COULD be better than last year. Certainly, TB will be our leading scorer. But at PG -- a critical position -- again we have an underperforming guy (Howard) and someone new to the system. The difference is, Thorpe. To me (sorry for the old-guy metaphor), he's like a rolaids. My acid's much better with him on the team -- because he adds depth, scoring, size and game experience. Like Gillon, he's new to the zone and there will be a learning curve. But I'm cautiously optimistic about the 4 guards we have coming in, even if Howard is only marginally better. I want 15 points out of the PG position and hopefully Thorpe/Howard/Washington can deliver.

On the front line -- total crap shoot. We don't know who will be playing SF (Brissett/Dolezaj?). And I'm guessing Moyer will be starting at PF. But both of those positions are wide open with THREE new guys.

In the middle, TT will obviously play 25+ minutes there. He will score and stretch the floor but rebounding will suffer b/c he'll be away from the basket. So I would love it if he could play some PF for us, especially against the big boys of the ACC. At PF, his defensive liabilities will be less damaging and he won't pick up as many fouls. But that all depends on our true centers performing. I might be in the minority onthis, but now that he can actually see in stereo, I expect Chukwu to be better. I'm expecting him to start fulfilling his potential as a glass-cleaner and shot-blocker who can give us 8-10 mpg and 4 ppg. Sidibe can also defend the rim. If he can contribute 6-8 minutes and 2-4 points (many reasons to think he can) AND we get enough offensive production from positions 1-4 to allow JB to play Chukwu/Sidibe 12-15 minutes per game, we'd have enough balance for this team to be top 5 ACC. If we're playing a stretch 4 at center 30+ mpg because we're desperate for points, I think we wind up like last year.

 

[SoBeCuse]

He was pretty well known early in conference play.

Lol. Right. I'm sure opposing coaches were concerned about let alone even aware of Thompson. Except for maybe to throw lobs in his vicinity. Gillon, White, Lydon, Battle were on the team last time I checked.

 

[CusefanATL]

more wins than expected

 

[Brooky03]

Lol. Right. I'm sure opposing coaches were concerned about let alone even aware of Thompson. Except for maybe to throw lobs in his vicinity. Gillon, White, Lydon, Battle were on the team last time I checked.

I like you, so I'm trying not to be a jerk, but how do you think scouting reports work?

 

[SoBeCuse]

I like you, so I'm trying not to be a jerk, but how do you think scouting reports work?

Are we really debating whether TT was on any scouting report LAST year? It was obvious. He would catch the ball often surprised or confused he was so wide open and usually do something pretty good with it. He had tons of room to operate. That will change.

As for scouting reports. Look up Larranaga's postgame remarks after the debacle in the ACC Tourney. He harassed Gillon and stuck with the shooters. You think Larranaga spent any energy pondering Thompson?

 

[Cusefan0307]

His conference stats were still really good, though. He was sitting at 51% from the field and dropping 20 points per 40 min, so he wasn't getting consistently shutdown. Roberson had a freak year from the field at 63% in conference (hard to miss putback dunks I guess). Even so, you'd rather have TT playing offense for you than Roberson and the decision wouldn't be a hard one to make.

TT's usage was high, but so was his efficiency. A high usage rate is only bad if you're inefficient, and he wasn't.

He's not a complete player and has a lot of work to do on defense, but his offense is about as polished as we've ever seen at PF (Center I suppose) from a Freshman in a long time.

Efficiency scoring is one thing. Efficiency on offense is another. He had a high FG% along with a below water Asst/TO %.

 

[Brooky03]

Are we really debating whether TT was on any scouting report LAST year? It was obvious. He would catch the ball often surprised or confused he was so wide open and usually do something pretty good with it. He had tons of room to operate. That will change.

As for scouting reports. Look up Larranaga's postgame remarks after the debacle in the ACC Tourney. He harassed Gillon and stuck with the shooters. You think Larranaga spent any energy pondering Thompson?

I don't think coaches only scout 3 or 4 players and ignore the rest. There was plenty of tape available on TT and I think ACC coaches almost unanimously knew what he could do. They have assistant coaches with the sole job of knowing which opposing players do what. Gillon was easy to gameplan for; get in his face... period. That's it, just attach your hip to his and he's toast. White was similar; don't let him shoot 3's, let him do whatever else he wants cuz he's not that good at things that aren't shooting 3's. Lydon and Battle were guys you had to gameplan for in more detail.

So ACC coaches decided quickly that stopping White and Gillon was a matter of not letting them shoot and then spent 3 days of practice (give or take) just focusing on what to do with a 13ppg scorer and an inconsistent less than 100% healthy freshman guard? I would think they had time to go over what to do with the only post scorer on the team who showed the ability to drop big numbers if you ignored him, no?

 

[Brooky03]

Efficiency scoring is one thing. Efficiency on offense is another. He had a high FG% along with a below water Asst/TO %.

Most big men don't have good a/to ratios; they're usually below 1. His turnovers were a little high but not bad for a Frosh.

 

[CuseFaninVT]

You can like his skillset, but the math says otherwise. Roberson produced more on offense on a per possession basis than TT did.

You don't think taking a two point jumper with his feet on the three point line, early in the shot clock, all by himself on the offensive end, is an offensive skill?

Yeah, I think TT is way overrated. And if he's truly giving the coaching staff the hard time that has been rumored, yeah, see ya.

Another thing I haven't seen mentioned elsewhere isn't necessarily Frank's attitude. It's the attitude Frank may be receiving from the other players. Seems like his only supported on last year's squad is everyone's favorite punching bag, Lydon. Hope the rift rumored last year has been fractured and we can have a drama free season for once in like a decade it seems.

Seriously, can I please just watch a drama free season of SU hoops????!!!!!

 

[SoBeCuse]

I don't think coaches only scout 3 or 4 players and ignore the rest. There was plenty of tape available on TT and I think ACC coaches almost unanimously knew what he could do. They have assistant coaches with the sole job of knowing which opposing players do what. Gillon was easy to gameplan for; get in his face... period. That's it, just attach your hip to his and he's toast. White was similar; don't let him shoot 3's, let him do whatever else he wants cuz he's not that good at things that aren't shooting 3's. Lydon and Battle were guys you had to gameplan for in more detail.

So ACC coaches decided quickly that stopping White and Gillon was a matter of not letting them shoot and then spent 3 days of practice (give or take) just focusing on what to do with a 13ppg scorer and an inconsistent less than 100% healthy freshman guard? I would think they had time to go over what to do with the only post scorer on the team who showed the ability to drop big numbers if you ignored him, no?

I'm pretty aware what the scouts/ assistant coaches do. I've sat directly behind assistants numerous times at MSG during the old and wonderful BET. I see what they write. I think with in regards to SU, the team didn't score in the paint plain and simple. Especially with how pedestrian the offensive scheme is so that was one area to check off as being covered. I just think coaches had TT far down the trough as anybody to 'worry' about. Also, I don't see how a good clean debate like this could have escalated to "jerk" style. It is what is. We rarely agree and that's cool.

 

[Brooky03]

I'm pretty aware what the scouts/ assistant coaches do. I've sat directly behind assistants numerous times at MSG during the old and wonderful BET. I see what they write. I think with in regards to SU, the team didn't score in the paint plain and simple. Especially with how pedestrian the offensive scheme is that was one area to check off as being covered. I just think coaches had TT as far down the trough as anybody to 'worry' about. Also, I don't see how a good clean debate like this could have escalated to "jerk" style. It is what is. We rarely agree and that's cool.

Syracuse did not score in the paint well as a team, but TT was the one legitimate threat down low with the bonus of hitting midrange jumpers at a high clip. Coaches who didn't put him on the team's radar weren't doing their jobs.

 

[realorange]

If Chukwu and Sidbe are looking good we may not have to worry about TT's bad attitude and lack of defense.
He may get a chance to sit with JB until he gets his head and game straight.

We thought Roberson would be a big contributor last year and----------!

 

[SoBeCuse]

I don't think coaches only scout 3 or 4 players and ignore the rest. There was plenty of tape available on TT and I think ACC coaches almost unanimously knew what he could do. They have assistant coaches with the sole job of knowing which opposing players do what. Gillon was easy to gameplan for; get in his face... period. That's it, just attach your hip to his and he's toast. White was similar; don't let him shoot 3's, let him do whatever else he wants cuz he's not that good at things that aren't shooting 3's. Lydon and Battle were guys you had to gameplan for in more detail.

So ACC coaches decided quickly that stopping White and Gillon was a matter of not letting them shoot and then spent 3 days of practice (give or take) just focusing on what to do with a 13ppg scorer and an inconsistent less than 100% healthy freshman guard? I would think they had time to go over what to do with the only post scorer on the team who showed the ability to drop big numbers if you ignored him, no?

Lastly, they did ignore him. He was pretty much always wide open! Yes he made some open shots but so what? We were NIT. The scouting seemed pretty solid from the opposition if you ask me.

 

[Jeremy L.]

It does seem that way. He is a very talented offensive player for a big guy. He looked a little mechanical/methodical on his post moves and around the rim but most guys his size as freshman don't have that footwork or those moves. I think that will come more naturally this season. He looks very smooth facing up from 15'-20' and is hard for opposing bigs to cover. If he leaves after this season he will be able to get payed to play basketball for a long time. I don't know if he will get drafted in the NBA or stick but he will easily be able to get paid to play ball.

Should have elaborated: He'd be leaving because he doesn't want to deal with Boeheim/the zone. I'm okay with the talent being there and him jumping but "he would have transferred but didn't want to sit out a year" is a big red flag to me.

 

[Brooky03]

Lastly, they did ignore him. He was pretty much always wide open! Yes he made some open shots but so what? We were NIT. The scouting seemed pretty solid from the opposition if you ask me.

I don't agree that he was always open, not in conference play, at least. Centers would give him a little space for his jumper but that was more a product of not wanting to give up a dunk against the quicker "Center."

 

[Chip]

At the end of the day, we just can't mess up some of those early games like this past season. Flip just one of those inexcusable crappy losses and we were dancing.

A bag of parts will need to come together again, but they need to make it happen quicker. Giving up 96 and 53 to BC over the course of 13 days shows that the problem wasn't just talent. It was chemistry.

 

[sutomcat]

JG junior season Colorado State 31.7 mpg, 13.2 ppg 3.9 apg, 2.3 tpg, 0.8 spg, 2.9 rpg, 38.4 fg%, 33.5 3p%
GT junior season South Florida 33.0 mpg, 15.1 ppg, 4.6 apg, 3.0 tpg, 1.6 spg, 2.9 rpg, 39.4% fg%, 37.5 3p%

Geno had better numbers across the board, except for turnovers, and he did it playing in the AAC, which is surely a tougher conference than the MWC. Advanced metrics are kinder to John (3.4 ws vs 2.1) but I think it is reasonable to expect Geno to do better than John did at Syracuse. John's size was a huge liability on defense and he was too small to be a factor offensively against good defensive teams.

 

[jordoo]

At the end of the day, we just can't mess up some of those early games like this past season. Flip just one of those inexcusable crappy losses and we were dancing.

A bag of parts will need to come together again, but they need to make it happen quicker. Giving up 96 and 53 to BC over the course of 13 days shows that the problem wasn't just talent. It was chemistry.

Yep! Uconn, StJohns and Gtown losses where really bad and we were still one of the last teams out. Win anyone of those and we would have been in.

 

[moqui]

oh, so much uncertainty: a lot of new faces; a lot of familiar faces in new or expanded roles.

so what? that's college basketball; nothing really new there. and as others have pointed out, JB has often fielded very strong teams coming off of years when he has seemingly lost too much talent.

the players are not the key issue this year. it is the coaching staff. 2017-18 will mark the most significant change in program culture since JB replaced Danforth. That's how entwined Mike had become with the program over the last decade. yes, Bernie was Associate Head Coach for a longer period, but he never had either the breadth or the depth of responsibilities that Mike had; few assistants ever do. some might think I'm overstating this, but I really don't think so: this is as close as you can get to having a new head coach without actually having made that change.

so far, the change has been positive. Red moving up and Griff stepping in has brought a new energy to the program, a program that has gone stagnant since the sanctions were handed down (exactly as the NCAA intended, BTW). I have confidence in those two being able to excel at their jobs, but the key to the next 3 years is going to be whether JB can fully re-engage his talents - which are formidable - again. His track record says yes, he will, and I wouldn't bet against him, but I have to acknowledge that basically re-launching a top tier program is a tall order for a man of his age.

 

[TinyManInside]

My guess is

Howard (8 ppg)/Thorpe (10 ppg)/Washington (2 ppg)
Battle (18 ppg)/Howard
Brissett (8 ppg)/Slovak Hak (5 ppg)
Moyer (8 ppg)/Brisset
Thompson (14 ppg)/Sidibe (3 ppg)/Chukwu (2 ppg)

78 ppg, unless my math's off.

I just hope we can hold opponents to between 65-70 ppg. Which I have my doubts on.

If we get 20 ppg from the PG position, we're going to the Elite 8 at minimum.

 

[TinyManInside]

oh, so much uncertainty: a lot of new faces; a lot of familiar faces in new or expanded roles.

so what? that's college basketball; nothing really new there. and as others have pointed out, JB has often fielded very strong teams coming off of years when he has seemingly lost too much talent.

the players are not the key issue this year. it is the coaching staff. 2017-18 will mark the most significant change in program culture since JB replaced Danforth. That's how entwined Mike had become with the program over the last decade. yes, Bernie was Associate Head Coach for a longer period, but he never had either the breadth or the depth of responsibilities that Mike had; few assistants ever do. some might think I'm overstating this, but I really don't think so: this is as close as you can get to having a new head coach without actually having made that change.

so far, the change has been positive. Red moving up and Griff stepping in has brought a new energy to the program, a program that has gone stagnant since the sanctions were handed down (exactly as the NCAA intended, BTW). I have confidence in those two being able to excel at their jobs, but the key to the next 3 years is going to be whether JB can fully re-engage his talents - which are formidable - again. His track record says yes, he will, and I wouldn't bet against him, but I have to acknowledge that basically re-launching a top tier program is a tall order for a man of his age.

Everyone on this board should read this post and carefully consider what you've said. It's a great post, and very indicative of the status of the program right now.

 

[Forza Azzurri]

oh, so much uncertainty: a lot of new faces; a lot of familiar faces in new or expanded roles.

so what? that's college basketball; nothing really new there. and as others have pointed out, JB has often fielded very strong teams coming off of years when he has seemingly lost too much talent.

the players are not the key issue this year. it is the coaching staff. 2017-18 will mark the most significant change in program culture since JB replaced Danforth. That's how entwined Mike had become with the program over the last decade. yes, Bernie was Associate Head Coach for a longer period, but he never had either the breadth or the depth of responsibilities that Mike had; few assistants ever do. some might think I'm overstating this, but I really don't think so: this is as close as you can get to having a new head coach without actually having made that change.

so far, the change has been positive. Red moving up and Griff stepping in has brought a new energy to the program, a program that has gone stagnant since the sanctions were handed down (exactly as the NCAA intended, BTW). I have confidence in those two being able to excel at their jobs, but the key to the next 3 years is going to be whether JB can fully re-engage his talents - which are formidable - again. His track record says yes, he will, and I wouldn't bet against him, but I have to acknowledge that basically re-launching a top tier program is a tall order for a man of his age.

Sooooo...I did a quick search and see that you have been posting sporadically since December. But this is the first post of yours that I've seen in two years.

First, (a belated) welcome back.

Second, where did you go for 18 mos?

This is arguably the 6th time that JB is relaunching the program (post-Danforth, post-Louie & Bouie, post sanctions, post Hart, Thomas & Blackwell, post Hak & GMAC and post-sanctions Deux). Gotta be tougher without your right-hand guy...

As always, looking forward to what next season's journey will be like...

 

[Oráiste]

Everyone on this board should read this post and carefully consider what you've said. It's a great post, and very indicative of the status of the program right now.

Seems like it should have it's onw thread. I'm not in deep enough to add anything, but this kind of meta-level analysis is fascinating

 

[Sherman20]

A lot of disturbing stuff that rings true here.

We all know the story about Dion Waiters and his mom and JB. I wonder if that will apply. Probably not, since the rumor is that TT's mom was the one who didn't want him to come here. If this rumor is true and TT is not enrolled in summer session or playing with his teammates at SU this summer, then that is hugely disappointing. Why would you hurt your own basketball development because you don't like JB or playing zone?why cut off your nose to spite your face? The Syracuse staff has the proven track record to get kids into the NBA draft.