RPI rank and likelihood of at-large NCAA bid

[djmlaw]

Our RPI ranking has been fairly volatile lately with each win or loss. We were hovering around 40 after the win streak, but we plummeted to the mid 60's after losses to UL and Pitt. We're currently at 56 after yesterday's win.

I was curious about how RPI ranks of P5 teams correlate to at-large bid likelihood (probability). I analyzed the RPI ratings since 2011 (when the field expanded to 68 teams). I isolated only P5 conferences (included the Big East up to 2013, dropped thereafter). P5 teams on probation were dropped as well. Total number of P5 teams receiving at-large bids vs total number of P5 teams eligible for at-large bid.

Here's the results:
RPI 41-50: 23 eligible P5 teams, 21 received at-large bids = 91% likelihood
RPI 51-60: 21 eligible P5 teams, 13 received at-large bids = 62% likelihood
RPI 61-70: 17 eligible P5 teams, 4 received at-large bids = 24% likelihood
RPI 71-80: 15 eligible P5 teams, 0 received bid = 0% likelihood

So we're currently squarely on the bubble, in the 60% likelihood range. If we want to feel comfortable about our chances we need to move our RPI into the 40's. A win at UNC would be huge (loss at the #9 RPI team shouldn't hurt us too much), but the game at FSU is now super important.

If we head into Selection Sunday with an RPI above 60 I don't like our chances.

Excellent post. I would add that this year has been one of far more parity and bubble teams resumes are not as good as past years. Few have as many good wins as SU. Wins against Duke at Duke and Texas A and M on neutral court are not something most bubble teams can boast of.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Excellent post. I would add that this year has been one of far more parity and bubble teams resumes are not as good as past years. Few have as many good wins as SU. Wins against Duke at Duke and Texas A and M on neutral court are not something most bubble teams can boast of.

Or losses at SJU and GU

 

[anomander]

Just as long as we don't lose out we are in. I think Boeheim's suspension will help us out quite a bit.

 

[jncuse]

Or losses at SJU and GU

I think pretty much every team on the bubble has a lost worse than AT Georgetown. Most have more than one worst loss.

The other loss is in a league of it's own.

 

[jncuse]

I've been paying attention to Florida all year and they would seem to be a good example of this. They have one good win all year, against WVU. Other than that, they lost to everybody good that they played (Purdue, Miami, Michigan St. Texas A&M, Kentucky). They're 17-12 overall and 8-8 in the mediocre SEC. Yet their RPI is better than ours.

They have an OOC SOS of 5, which has allowed for that RPI to stay high even if they don't win that often. The win over St Joes and West Virginia are nice, but as you said they lose a really % of their key games. There seed did seem inflated for a while They are where they deserve to be now -- right on the bubble line.

 

[Sgt Cuse]

I think pretty much every team on the bubble has a lost worse than AT Georgetown. Most have more than one worst loss.

The other loss is in a league of it's own.

Which may help in a way, the St John's loss was so much of an outlier they may wonder why and then realize JB wasn't there for it.
Then they may continue to realize JB wasn't there for the next two worse losses either - Gtown and Clemson.

 

[Brooky03]

It probably won't if we are on the bubble line.

1) While considered, I never thought it would be adjusted based on history. But opinion, either way, probably won't matter because of #2 below

2) If we end up on the bubble discussion we end the season going 1-4, 2-4 or 2-5. It will look more like this team is just inconsistent rather then anything else.

Those potential losses would be against good competition unlike the losses during the Hopkins stretch, so I don't think it's an apples-to-apples comparison. The Committee should recognize that, and I'm still a firm believer that the suspension will be a big part of their discussion, especially if we're on the bubble. I think it becomes less relevant if they're just debating seed.

 

[jdubs30]

I've been paying attention to Florida all year and they would seem to be a good example of this. They have one good win all year, against WVU. Other than that, they lost to everybody good that they played (Purdue, Miami, Michigan St. Texas A&M, Kentucky). They're 17-12 overall and 8-8 in the mediocre SEC. Yet their RPI is better than ours.

That WVU win came the day after Holton, one of the top 3 players, was suspended. The ACC is storng this year, I think getting to 9 wins was big. I'm actually more optimistic regarding our place in the field than most. I think we just need 1 more win and we will be in. If we lose to UNC and FSU and get 1 win in the ACCT I think we're OK; obviously I'd rather not risk it, but this team is 15-5 with wins over Duke, UConn, Texas A&M, ND, St. Bonvaneture and Florida State with JB at the helm.

People (mostly other fans) keep saying they shouldn't consider that JB was out, that it was his own doing therefore we should be punished for it, which I get. However, what about the OTHER teams? You could argue (15-5 with JB as of now) that if JB coached every game we'd have at least 3 more wins, which puts us at 22 overall, which puts us around the 6 line most likely. That is who this team truly is with JB, a 6/7 seed. So if we end up a 9, how is that fair to the 1 seed? If the committee decides that with JB (who will be coaching in March) this team is a 6, is it fair to make the 1 seed play us in the 2nd round instead of us playing a 3 seed? It's the same thing if Brandon Ingram got hurt a few weeks ago, ended missing 5 games, and Duke goes 1-4 and falls down 4 or 5 seed lines. Ingram is 100% healthy for the tournament, and all of a sudden the 1 seed has to deal with a full strength Duke team that in reality is a 4 seed with Ingram, not the 8 that they are currently.

 

[Chris02M]

Those potential losses would be against good competition unlike the losses during the Hopkins stretch, so I don't think it's an apples-to-apples comparison. The Committee should recognize that, and I'm still a firm believer that the suspension will be a big part of their discussion, especially if we're on the bubble. I think it becomes less relevant if they're just debating seed.

a loss at fsu and a 1st game acc loss against vt or gt would not be a good way to wait for our fate

 

[jdubs30]

a loss at fsu and a 1st game acc loss against vt or gt would not be a good way to wait for our fate

We'd be probably out at that point unless we won @UNC. We can't go 0-3 -- we just can't do it.

GaTech is scary on that 2nd day too, they look like they're making a late push for a bid too -- rather have the Hokies

 

[tbonezone]

we need to make some noise in the ACC tourney. if for no other reason then it's been way too long since we made noise.

 

[OrangeDW]

We'd be probably out at that point unless we won @UNC. We can't go 0-3 -- we just can't do it.

GaTech is scary on that 2nd day too, they look like they're making a late push for a bid too -- rather have the Hokies

Agreed, but there's no reason for a loss to FSU regardless of where the game is played. We're better than them, and we match up well with them. I don't expect it to be as easy as last time, but I expect to win that game.

 

[NYCSUGrad]

despite our rpi we are in a good spot to get in with no bad losses

I'm sure I'm not the first to say this but St Johns isn't a bad loss?????

 

[jdubs30]

I'm sure I'm not the first to say this but St Johns isn't a bad loss?????

he meant no bad losses the rest of the way

 

[Brooky03]

a loss at fsu and a 1st game acc loss against vt or gt would not be a good way to wait for our fate

I'm assuming we win out first round ACCT game. A loss @FSU isn't a bad loss.

 

[KaiserUEO]

I'm assuming we win out first round ACCT game. A loss @FSU isn't a bad loss.

Yes it is.

 

[Brooky03]

Yes it is.

I don't think so. It's not necessarily a good loss, but it doesn't go in the 'bad loss' graphic ESPN will toss up for the bubble teams.

 

[Knicks411]

We're going to be like 3 or 4 point dogs at FSU, fwiw,

 

[SoBeCuse]

We'd be probably out at that point unless we won @UNC. We can't go 0-3 -- we just can't do it.

GaTech is scary on that 2nd day too, they look like they're making a late push for a bid too -- rather have the Hokies

Yeah, we don't deserve a bid if we go 0-3. No way. Agreed re: Va Tech.

 

[pearl31]

Yes it is.

No it's not.

 

[KaiserUEO]

No it's not.

So losing 3 of the 4 last games is cool??

Or quite possibly 3 in a row to close it out is just peachy??

Barring a W tomorrow, fla st is a must win.

 

[pearl31]

So losing 3 of the 4 last games is cool??

Or quite possibly 3 in a row to close it out is just peachy??

Barring a W tomorrow, fla st is a must win.

Sometimes it's good to be more informed before posting.

 

[KaiserUEO]

Sometimes it's good to be more informed before posting.

So you think the committee is so inamored with Cuse Hoop '16...that it's ok to lose the last 2 regular season games, obviously 1 scheduled...but 1 not.

Then hold serve or worse in the ACCT.

And we are good...


Ok...

Guess you're new around here and the tourney in general.

 

[jncuse]

Which may help in a way, the St John's loss was so much of an outlier they may wonder why and then realize JB wasn't there for it.
Then they may continue to realize JB wasn't there for the next two worse losses either - Gtown and Clemson.

Yep, one can see it that way. But one can also see it as the total opposite.

"St. John's is so bad, you don't really need a good coach to win that game. To lose that game indicates the problem at that part of the season was the players. The players were struggling and that continued for a while"

 

[jncuse]

Those potential losses would be against good competition unlike the losses during the Hopkins stretch, so I don't think it's an apples-to-apples comparison. The Committee should recognize that, and I'm still a firm believer that the suspension will be a big part of their discussion, especially if we're on the bubble. I think it becomes less relevant if they're just debating seed.

You are entitled to your opinion. My opinion is based on the fact that I have never really seen a positive adjustment... although it could have been done in the background for teams on the bubble line and we would never know.

Personally I am not worried too much about it, because I think we are in great shape with 1 more win based on what I have seen around us. We don't need the JB factor

The only way I can speculate that I am right is if we miss the tourney, and I have no interest in that scenario.