RPI

[CusefanATL]

Not that realtimerpi is all that great... but i do like to keep tabs on it every now and then.

The last time i looked (i believe right before the temple game) it predicted that we would finish reg season 30-1 (but gave us W's in a all 31 predictions)

I look today - and BOOM 22-9!! wow!! that's just incredible. And shows how meaningless that feature is.

 

[Garbs]

it seems to be predicting us to lose just about every road game, probably because we have only played one road and one neutral and are 1-1, have to wait for mid to late January for any of these to start making sense

 

[Knicks411]

it seems to be predicting us to lose just about every road game, probably because we have only played one road and one neutral and are 1-1, have to wait for mid to late January for any of these to start making sense

Yeah, it's also a function of the fact that we have an RPi of 47 now which seems a little ridiculous. (Though that is in part a function of playing one road game)

Pomeroy has us 5th overall, and going 14-4 in the league. I like that one a lot better.

 

[CusefanATL]

Yeah, it's also a function of the fact that we have an RPi of 47 now which seems a little ridiculous. (Though that is in part a function of playing one road game)

Pomeroy has us 5th overall, and going 14-4 in the league. I like that one a lot better.

realtime has us at 18th

 

[mscanlo]

I look today - and BOOM 22-9!! wow!! that's just incredible. And shows how meaningless that feature is.

happens all the time in statistics when the sample size is too small (i.e. too early in the season). it will get better in a couple games. on the other hand it's also a statistical forecast. it's based of history adn we did lose a game to a team that is not as good as others we will play, so it thinks we will lose more. it doesn't mean it is going to happen. forecasting is 50% science, 50% intuition, but the forecaster built it so it runs automatically without the intuition put into it.

in simple terms, we think it is a fluke we lost to temple, but statistics does not know the difference and is not biased so adjusted the w-l prediction accordingly

 

[Garbs]

yea our numbers will go up if we win these next two road games even though USF and Prov are not very good

 

[Knicks411]

hahah sorry; i went to the site and didn't realize it defaults to football right now.

 

[CusefanATL]

hahah sorry; i went to the site and didn't realize it defaults to football right now.

i did the same thing when i looked before the temple game.

 

[armory]

Pretty sure RealTimeRPI is experimenting with a bunch of new features, most in a sort of beta phase to be taken with a grain of salt. It was just bare-bones RPI ratings not too long ago.

 

[CorduroyG]

hahah sorry; i went to the site and didn't realize it defaults to football right now.

so wait, the hoops team isnt playing a game at yankee stadium??

 

[Knicks411]

so wait, the hoops team isnt playing a game at yankee stadium??

wouldn't count as a true road game anyway...

 

[CaptainJ]

I was happy to see the SOS move up to 59 after playing rutgers!