SB Nation Article: Can Syracuse sustain it's 10 win Status?

[IthacaMatt]

OL is our wild card ...good 8-11 wins, not so good 8 will be hard to get . If we can't run we're in for a long season.

We have 3 starters back. Plus we have a couple guys with experience in the system.
We shouldn't be terrible.

 

[Dino2112]

We have 3 starters back. Plus we have a couple guys with experience in the system.
We shouldn't be terrible.

it wasn't all that good last year (run blocking)

 

[PhatOrange]

I enjoyed that article and my favorite quote was this one, "...and the school replaced him with Greg Robinson, one of the most disastrous hires of the 21st century."

 

[TheCusian]

Here's a good article that explains why it's not repeatable

How to understand college football analytics – the ultimate guide

thepowerrank.com

Yeah, the old "TO's are random" argument. I'm aware. Here's why I said what I said:

1. TO's are mostly random. But if there is any correlation to stats - it's sacks/pressure. We have two of the very best edge rushers in the country this year. We score a lot of points and force teams to catch up, usually by passing.

2. We have the #1 ball hawking S in the country.

3. While it's true that under Babers we haven't had a year like 2018 prior - He had very good TO numbers at Bowling Green. In 2014, BG was #5 nationally in TO's created. In 2015, BG was #13 in TO's created. We were #3 in 2019. So in the last 5 years, Babers led teams were in the top 15 in TO's created 3 of the 5 years.
Not saying it's repeatable - but that's one hell of a coincidence...

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Yeah, the old "TO's are random" argument. I'm aware. Here's why I said what I said:

1. TO's are mostly random. But if there is any correlation to stats - it's sacks/pressure. We have two of the very best edge rushers in the country this year. We score a lot of points and force teams to catch up, usually by passing.

2. We have the #1 ball hawking S in the country.

3. While it's true that under Babers we haven't had a year like 2018 prior - He had very good TO numbers at Bowling Green. In 2014, BG was #5 nationally in TO's created. In 2015, BG was #13 in TO's created. We were #3 in 2019. So in the last 5 years, Babers led teams were in the top 15 in TO's created 3 of the 5 years.
Not saying it's repeatable - but that's one hell of a coincidence...

An aggressive style of play can consistently create TOs year in and out. IMO the “randomness” would have more to do with a SR Dungey vs a Soph DeVito. I expect more INTs and fumbles on O this year.

BTW that article was whack. Used faulty logic.

 

[Doc5120]

No reason he shouldn't. He was 30-37, I believe. That's not like hitting 95% of his kicks. It's a sustainable, repeatable number. The big thing was we couldn't punch it into the end zone with Howard as our goal line back often enough. With Adams this year, and that new freshman, I don't think that will be as much of an issue this year. We have a couple guys now who can gain a couple yards even when there isn't a hole.

He was actually 30-34, which is incredible at the collegiate level, especially considering he was a perfect 3-3 from 50+. He is a great kicker, there is no doubt about it. But I'd be surprised to see him hit that % and go perfect from beyond 50 this season. He only missed 1 gimme (against ND), thankfully in a situation where the outcome was decided.

He actually had the 2nd highest % for any kicker attempting 25 or more FG's, and was only .3% behind the leader (who attempted 26), 15 of which were between 20-29 yds and none from beyond 50. Szmyt had an incredible year. Asking him to duplicate that effort is a very tall task.

I think he'll take a small step back and hit somewhere in the low 80's, if nothing else because he'll likely attempt quite a few long FG's, because he is such a good kicker.

 

[skurey]

Yeah, the old "TO's are random" argument. I'm aware. Here's why I said what I said:

1. TO's are mostly random. But if there is any correlation to stats - it's sacks/pressure. We have two of the very best edge rushers in the country this year. We score a lot of points and force teams to catch up, usually by passing.

2. We have the #1 ball hawking S in the country.

3. While it's true that under Babers we haven't had a year like 2018 prior - He had very good TO numbers at Bowling Green. In 2014, BG was #5 nationally in TO's created. In 2015, BG was #13 in TO's created. We were #3 in 2019. So in the last 5 years, Babers led teams were in the top 15 in TO's created 3 of the 5 years.
Not saying it's repeatable - but that's one hell of a coincidence...

What were his ranks in those other years?

 

[TheCusian]

What were his ranks in those other years?

Not great. But 3 of 5 years in the top 15 is not random.

 

[TheCusian]

An aggressive style of play can consistently create TOs year in and out. IMO the “randomness” would have more to do with a SR Dungey vs a Soph DeVito. I expect more INTs and fumbles on O this year.

BTW that article was whack. Used faulty logic.

I purposefully left out TO margin - in favor of TO creation by the defense for just that reason. If our margin comes back to earth, I'd expect it to be DeVito growing pains and INT.

 

[IthacaMatt]

it wasn't all that good last year (run blocking)

I think we have 2 backs who are much better than the guys who got most of the carries last year. Don't forget that part.

Yes, you need linemen to open holes, but you also need guys who can hit the smallest of holes, and who can pick up yards that aren't necessarily there.

 

[sufandu]

I think we have 2 backs who are much better than the guys who got most of the carries last year. Don't forget that part.

Yes, you need linemen to open holes, but you also need guys who can hit the smallest of holes, and who can pick up yards that aren't necessarily there.

I'm hoping we see a few "he shouldn't have been able to that" yards this year.

 

[skurey]

Not great. But 3 of 5 years in the top 15 is not random.

It seems like it is.

 

[cuse309]

Yeah, the old "TO's are random" argument. I'm aware. Here's why I said what I said:

1. TO's are mostly random. But if there is any correlation to stats - it's sacks/pressure. We have two of the very best edge rushers in the country this year. We score a lot of points and force teams to catch up, usually by passing.

2. We have the #1 ball hawking S in the country.

3. While it's true that under Babers we haven't had a year like 2018 prior - He had very good TO numbers at Bowling Green. In 2014, BG was #5 nationally in TO's created. In 2015, BG was #13 in TO's created. We were #3 in 2019. So in the last 5 years, Babers led teams were in the top 15 in TO's created 3 of the 5 years.
Not saying it's repeatable - but that's one hell of a coincidence...

Awesome post! I was wondering about the turnovers as well. It's really one of my big concerns heading into 2019. Can we repeat the turnovers like last year, or was the stellar turnover margin just dumb luck. I was going to look into Dinos turnover numbers at other schools as well. His numbers at BG combined with his numbers here show a trend.

 

[TheCusian]

It seems like it is.

Out of 120 teams?

 

[Dino2112]

I think we have 2 backs who are much better than the guys who got most of the carries last year. Don't forget that part.

Yes, you need linemen to open holes, but you also need guys who can hit the smallest of holes, and who can pick up yards that aren't necessarily there.

i agree ,but even against not so good DL's i did not see alot of holes . I'm not talking sweeps and or edge plays , more up the gut stuff .I like our RB's this year

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

Here's a good article that explains why it's not repeatable

How to understand college football analytics – the ultimate guide

thepowerrank.com

That's my biggest concern going into this year. All things being completely equal from last year and this year, with the exception of TO ratio returning to the mean could turn some of those close games into losses. I'm looking at an 8-4 type of season. That's perfectly fine by me as Dino needs four or five consecutive solid seasons to start turning the recruiting tide. This club doesn't need to be 10-2 or 11-1 every year. With this type of offense and defense, and a winning record for multiple years, SU will become a destination school again. That's what we need. Frankly, regression to the mean on TO's should be expected. And that will certainly affect the record. Last year was the perfect storm.

 

[A Clockwork Orange]

This defensive philosophy is made to create TO’s. I don’t think it’s that freakish or that it’s not repeatable.

It all depends on how much a difference you think Chris Slayton made in the middle. He constantly took on double teams, forcing offenses to go 1-on-1 on the outside with us. I think Alton and Kendall are the real deal on the edge, but the Slayton ripple effect can't be overstated. It also allowed our linebacking corp last year to have a better than average season despite the fact that we lost a lot of good backers the year before. Without Slayton, more OL's may get to the second level, and may be able to chip and double up on the ends. That will potentially bring TO numbers down all on its own.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The article mostly seems to have a hard time projecting results anticipating so many close games. I don't think any of the analysis is bad, per se.

If we're expecting close ones, that's where it matters how much you think of Dino. If you believe Dino is a great coach, you like your chances in close games. If you're still not sure about Dino, those close games look a lot more dangerous.

 

[IthacaMatt]

That's my biggest concern going into this year. All things being completely equal from last year and this year, with the exception of TO ratio returning to the mean could turn some of those close games into losses. I'm looking at an 8-4 type of season. That's perfectly fine by me as Dino needs four or five consecutive solid seasons to start turning the recruiting tide. This club doesn't need to be 10-2 or 11-1 every year. With this type of offense and defense, and a winning record for multiple years, SU will become a destination school again. That's what we need. Frankly, regression to the mean on TO's should be expected. And that will certainly affect the record. Last year was the perfect storm.

While I see the statistical analysis behind the turnover story, I still think that teams who play a more aggressive style of defense CAN force turnovers. I don't accept them as truly random. It may be that the later season "regression" is just the fact that teams have more film on opponents, and know who the playmakers are on the defense who need to be stopped.

 

[TheCusian]

The article mostly seems to have a hard time projecting results anticipating so many close games. I don't think any of the analysis is bad, per se.

If we're expecting close ones, that's where it matters how much you think of Dino. If you believe Dino is a great coach, you like your chances in close games. If you're still not sure about Dino, those close games look a lot more dangerous.

Coaching overachievers and underachievers

There’s statistical proof that he’s good for some extra wins

 

[Sudano]

This defensive philosophy is made to create TO’s. I don’t think it’s that freakish or that it’s not repeatable.

Every defense wants to create turnovers. Its the single most statistic that leads to winning. Their statistical randomness is much higher than your post implies.

 

[TheCusian]

Every defense wants to create turnovers. Its the single most statistic that leads to winning. Their statistical randomness is much higher than your post implies.

Every defense wants to. Dino’s philosophy *does*...

When you play with a lead or have the ability to put up points like Dino’s O does, you force opponents to pass. Add dominate pass rushers and a zone defense and you’ll get more that other teams.

(I personally love how every post on the subject implies I’ve not read the same stuff they have on the randomness of TOs)