SWC75
Bored Historian
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- Aug 26, 2011
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If you read my annual NCAA seed stats post, you know that when I make out my sheet, I make no claim to any magic system for accuracy: I’m looking for speed. I don’t want to waste too much of my life making out a NCAA bracket when I know that detailed research doesn’t really increase the likelihood of getting it right: I just want to get something that makes some kind of sense done as quickly as possible.
I confess that during the regular season, I pay most attention to SU and the Big East. The NCAA field is full of teams I’ve never seen play. Some people can talk about the back-up point guard for St Mary’s, (he can’t go to his left!). I can’t. So I take a crash course on these teams by reading summaries and looking at rankings. But to speed things up, I use a structure based on the percentages of what’s happened in the past, specifically when the field went to 64 teams in 1985.
Since then, there have been an average of 8 first round upsets: on in the 3-14 games, one in 4-13, one in 5-12, one in 6-11, two in 7-10 games and two in 8-9 games. Instead of reading about all 16 teams in a region and then figuring out the region, just look at those match-ups and figure out which 3-14 is the most likely upset, which 4-13, which 5-12, which 6-11 and which two 7-10s and 8-9s. Predict those and go “chalk” on all the games and you just predicted 32 of the 63 games.
Of the 8 teams that pull off these upsets, an average of two of them go to the Sweet 16 but the odds are against them going any father. The 11 and 12 seeded upsetters have the greatest success rate at getting to the Sweet 16. So have your 11-12 upsetters go to the Sweet 16 and stop there while the rest of them lose in the round of 32. You don’t have to read about them or their opponents at this stage of the process and you’ve just predicted 8 more game. You now have 40 of the 63 and about the same number of little gray cells.
That’s the “supply side”. The more teams you get right in the first two rounds, the better you will do. But let’s turn it around and look at it for the other end. 17 for the 28 national champions since 1985 have been #1 seeds. So look at your four #1 seeds: who do you think is the most likely winner? Pencil them in for five more wins. Now you’ve done 45 of the 63 games.
The average Final Four contains 2 #1 seeds, a #2 seed and a lower seeded team. If you want to stick to the numbers, that would most likely be a #3 seed. There have been 14 of those. But there have been 27 teams seeded below that that made the Final Four, so pick out your favorite Cinderella team and put them in there. That’s 3 more games. Now you have two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds to look at. Pick one of each to make you Final Four. That’s 6 more games.
Now you should have about 9 games left. Don’t spend too much time on them because the winners aren’t going anywhere anyway.
You can depart from this plan any time and any way you want. The point isn’t to make you predictions for you. It’s to give your deliberations a structure to expedite them.
I normally use a pre-season magazine and the USA Today tournament preview, (mostly the latter) to decide on the specific games. USA Today used to list a team’s strengths and weaknesses. I’m just looking for certain combinations of things: a pressing team vs. a team with a shaky point guard situation, a team with a great shot blocker vs. a team without much of a perimeter game, etc. Just something to hang my hat on. This year USA Today simply had a litany of a team’s achievements, a couple of stats and a ridiculously useless listing of some of the schools’ prominent alumni. (Not only did Bill Cosby go to Temple: so did Bob Saget!). I decided to have a look at Ken Pomeroy’s and Jeff Sagarin’s rankings to give me a guide to the teams I didn’t know much about.
In the 3-14 bracket, it seemed obvious that the #1 candidate to pull off an upset was Davidson. Everybody was talking about them and Marquette is one of these “physical” Big East teams that could have trouble with the officiating in the NCAAs. In the 4-13 bracket I kind of fell in love with South Dakota State. Nate Wolters seemed like one of those guys who makes a name for himself in the tournament. I picked them to knock off Michigan. The 12 seed who everybody likes is Oregon who won the Pac 12 tourney. But I liked Oklahoma State, who comes from a stronger conference and has a great player, Marcus Smart and two other very good ones in Le’Bryan Nash and Markel Brown. Similarly, Mississippi won the SEC tournament but I think Wisconsin will be too tough for them. That left California to knock off UNLV. They lost to them by one point earlier in the season and are basically the home team. So they were the pick, (even though I really think UNLV is the better team). A popular pick in the 6-11 game is Bucknell over Butler but I have a hard time picking against Brad Stevens. I prefer Minnesota, one of the Big Ten contenders over UCLA, who lost Jordan Adams, their #2 scorer, to injury. At 7-10 I read “The quick triggered Illini had the third most three point attempts of any team in the country but finished tied for 242nd in three-point percentage.” That seemed like a red flag. I wasn’t that impressed reading about Oklahoma or Iowa State. Creighton has a great player in Doug McDermott but Cincinnati is a good defensive team and I thought they could handle a one-man team so I picked them and Colorado. Pittsburgh is ranked #7 by Pomeroy and #10 by Sagarin and yet they somehow got a #8 seed, meaning the committee considered them to be between the 29th and 32nd best team in the country. That’s an amazing gap. North Carolina, per USA Today, is “one of the hottest teams in the nation” and NC State was the pre-season favorite in the ACC. One of them had to go down. I remembered Temple beating us and noted they beat everybody’s favorite mid-major, VCU, in the A10 tournament so I picked them to beat NC State. The other 8-9 was Colorado State, who I thought easily was the worst 8 and I liked Missouri’s line-up so I picked them.
I now had a problem because the 11 and 12 seeds are supposed to go on to the Sweet 16 and California, my 12 seed, was playing the ‘Cuse. I couldn’t see picking against the Orange in the round of 32 so I decided to depart from the formula and pick someone else to take California’s place as an underdog in the Sweet 16. I decided on Davidson over Butler. To go with my 11 seed, Minnesota, knocking off Florida, I picked Davidson over Butler.
I think that with Ryan Kelly, Duke is the best team in the country so I picked them to win it all. They are a #2 seed. I think Indiana is the best team in our region, so I picked them to go to the Final Four. They are a #1 seed. To put a second #1 seed in the Final Four, I had to go with either Gonzaga or Kansas but even after reading about them, I just didn’t believe in either team. I like Ohio State to make it back to the Final Four . They’ve won 8 in a row and the Big Ten Tournament and that’s the best league in the country this year. Kansas has gotten better but they had some really bad losses. They will be motivated to get revenge on VCU but the Rams have that press. I know we hate Georgetown but they don’t suck. I picked them to beat VCU in the regional final. So sue me. I have Duke beating Indiana in the championship game.
I could discuss the other games but if the above predictions don’t fare well, they won’t matter anyway. What’s actually going to happen? No idea. But I’m done for another year and can get back to my life, such as it is.
I confess that during the regular season, I pay most attention to SU and the Big East. The NCAA field is full of teams I’ve never seen play. Some people can talk about the back-up point guard for St Mary’s, (he can’t go to his left!). I can’t. So I take a crash course on these teams by reading summaries and looking at rankings. But to speed things up, I use a structure based on the percentages of what’s happened in the past, specifically when the field went to 64 teams in 1985.
Since then, there have been an average of 8 first round upsets: on in the 3-14 games, one in 4-13, one in 5-12, one in 6-11, two in 7-10 games and two in 8-9 games. Instead of reading about all 16 teams in a region and then figuring out the region, just look at those match-ups and figure out which 3-14 is the most likely upset, which 4-13, which 5-12, which 6-11 and which two 7-10s and 8-9s. Predict those and go “chalk” on all the games and you just predicted 32 of the 63 games.
Of the 8 teams that pull off these upsets, an average of two of them go to the Sweet 16 but the odds are against them going any father. The 11 and 12 seeded upsetters have the greatest success rate at getting to the Sweet 16. So have your 11-12 upsetters go to the Sweet 16 and stop there while the rest of them lose in the round of 32. You don’t have to read about them or their opponents at this stage of the process and you’ve just predicted 8 more game. You now have 40 of the 63 and about the same number of little gray cells.
That’s the “supply side”. The more teams you get right in the first two rounds, the better you will do. But let’s turn it around and look at it for the other end. 17 for the 28 national champions since 1985 have been #1 seeds. So look at your four #1 seeds: who do you think is the most likely winner? Pencil them in for five more wins. Now you’ve done 45 of the 63 games.
The average Final Four contains 2 #1 seeds, a #2 seed and a lower seeded team. If you want to stick to the numbers, that would most likely be a #3 seed. There have been 14 of those. But there have been 27 teams seeded below that that made the Final Four, so pick out your favorite Cinderella team and put them in there. That’s 3 more games. Now you have two #1 seeds and two #2 seeds to look at. Pick one of each to make you Final Four. That’s 6 more games.
Now you should have about 9 games left. Don’t spend too much time on them because the winners aren’t going anywhere anyway.
You can depart from this plan any time and any way you want. The point isn’t to make you predictions for you. It’s to give your deliberations a structure to expedite them.
I normally use a pre-season magazine and the USA Today tournament preview, (mostly the latter) to decide on the specific games. USA Today used to list a team’s strengths and weaknesses. I’m just looking for certain combinations of things: a pressing team vs. a team with a shaky point guard situation, a team with a great shot blocker vs. a team without much of a perimeter game, etc. Just something to hang my hat on. This year USA Today simply had a litany of a team’s achievements, a couple of stats and a ridiculously useless listing of some of the schools’ prominent alumni. (Not only did Bill Cosby go to Temple: so did Bob Saget!). I decided to have a look at Ken Pomeroy’s and Jeff Sagarin’s rankings to give me a guide to the teams I didn’t know much about.
In the 3-14 bracket, it seemed obvious that the #1 candidate to pull off an upset was Davidson. Everybody was talking about them and Marquette is one of these “physical” Big East teams that could have trouble with the officiating in the NCAAs. In the 4-13 bracket I kind of fell in love with South Dakota State. Nate Wolters seemed like one of those guys who makes a name for himself in the tournament. I picked them to knock off Michigan. The 12 seed who everybody likes is Oregon who won the Pac 12 tourney. But I liked Oklahoma State, who comes from a stronger conference and has a great player, Marcus Smart and two other very good ones in Le’Bryan Nash and Markel Brown. Similarly, Mississippi won the SEC tournament but I think Wisconsin will be too tough for them. That left California to knock off UNLV. They lost to them by one point earlier in the season and are basically the home team. So they were the pick, (even though I really think UNLV is the better team). A popular pick in the 6-11 game is Bucknell over Butler but I have a hard time picking against Brad Stevens. I prefer Minnesota, one of the Big Ten contenders over UCLA, who lost Jordan Adams, their #2 scorer, to injury. At 7-10 I read “The quick triggered Illini had the third most three point attempts of any team in the country but finished tied for 242nd in three-point percentage.” That seemed like a red flag. I wasn’t that impressed reading about Oklahoma or Iowa State. Creighton has a great player in Doug McDermott but Cincinnati is a good defensive team and I thought they could handle a one-man team so I picked them and Colorado. Pittsburgh is ranked #7 by Pomeroy and #10 by Sagarin and yet they somehow got a #8 seed, meaning the committee considered them to be between the 29th and 32nd best team in the country. That’s an amazing gap. North Carolina, per USA Today, is “one of the hottest teams in the nation” and NC State was the pre-season favorite in the ACC. One of them had to go down. I remembered Temple beating us and noted they beat everybody’s favorite mid-major, VCU, in the A10 tournament so I picked them to beat NC State. The other 8-9 was Colorado State, who I thought easily was the worst 8 and I liked Missouri’s line-up so I picked them.
I now had a problem because the 11 and 12 seeds are supposed to go on to the Sweet 16 and California, my 12 seed, was playing the ‘Cuse. I couldn’t see picking against the Orange in the round of 32 so I decided to depart from the formula and pick someone else to take California’s place as an underdog in the Sweet 16. I decided on Davidson over Butler. To go with my 11 seed, Minnesota, knocking off Florida, I picked Davidson over Butler.
I think that with Ryan Kelly, Duke is the best team in the country so I picked them to win it all. They are a #2 seed. I think Indiana is the best team in our region, so I picked them to go to the Final Four. They are a #1 seed. To put a second #1 seed in the Final Four, I had to go with either Gonzaga or Kansas but even after reading about them, I just didn’t believe in either team. I like Ohio State to make it back to the Final Four . They’ve won 8 in a row and the Big Ten Tournament and that’s the best league in the country this year. Kansas has gotten better but they had some really bad losses. They will be motivated to get revenge on VCU but the Rams have that press. I know we hate Georgetown but they don’t suck. I picked them to beat VCU in the regional final. So sue me. I have Duke beating Indiana in the championship game.
I could discuss the other games but if the above predictions don’t fare well, they won’t matter anyway. What’s actually going to happen? No idea. But I’m done for another year and can get back to my life, such as it is.
