Scouting report on how to beat Syracuse

[jordoo]

although, if you look at the common themes in our (rare) losses over the last few years, it really isn't that complicated: don't turn the ball over and make shots.

Simple formula, not so easy to execute.

But that formula works against anyone. Its not specific to us. I hear you though and that just lends itself to what I'm saying you have to play very well to beat us.

 

[moqui]

But that formula works against anyone. Its not specific to us. I hear you though and that just lends itself to what I'm saying you have to play very well to beat us.

absolutely . . . but some teams are generally looser with the ball than others; you know those teams are probably not going to beat Syracuse. But when you play a disciplined team, especially one with good upperclassmen at the guard positions, you know SU is in trouble.

Or -gulp - a team like Duke which, although it is young, does not turn the ball over (9th in the nation in TO percentage), is very efficient on offense (2nd in the nation), taking and making (40.8%, 11th in the nation) a lot of threes.

 

[jordoo]

absolutely . . . but some teams are generally looser with the ball than others; you know those teams are probably not going to beat Syracuse. But when you play a disciplined team, especially one with good upperclassmen at the guard positions, you know SU is in trouble.

Or -gulp - a team like Duke which, although it is young, does not turn the ball over (9th in the nation in TO percentage), is very efficient on offense (2nd in the nation), taking and making (40.8%, 11th in the nation) a lot of threes.

Duke can put enough shooters out there to spread us no doubt about that. I think we can hurt them inside and especially on the offensive glass. Its a pretty interesting match up and one in which we may very well have to win with our offense.

 

[Trueblue25]

 

[Cusefannotindc]

using the data from Hoop Math (which only goes back to 2012), you can see a clear decline not only in transition points, but in effectiveness from transition:

they define transition as any possession in which the initial shot attempt comes in the first 10 seconds of a possession following a rebound, made basket or turnover by the opponent.

the numbers don't add up to 100%, so I'm not sure where the other 17 to 20% of the attempts are being credited.

I think the rest comes from FTs.

 

[Cusefannotindc]

that was the 2012 number.

I will summarize:

2012: 28.9% of points came in transition, with a FG% of 60.5%
2013: 26.3% of points came in transition, with a FG% of 56.9%
2014: 22.1% of points came in transition, with a FG% of 53.4%

so, this season represents a 3 year low in both transition opportunities and effectiveness

This is not quite it. It represents their first shot of a possession, not % of points. Also it calculates eFG%, so basically 2x FG% = points per shot. But it does not include things like turnovers and offensive rebounds.

 

[LennX6]

I saw that posted by OE this morning. Very comprehensive read. It was about a lot more than just how to beat us.

Pretty good summary, IMO.

Grant is always around the ball. He's long, he's athletic, he gets in transition. You have those other guys, and then he's the fourth option that's cleaning everything up. What makes Jerami Grant special is he has all those other guys and can be who he is. He doesn't have to go outside his box too much.”
I never looked at it this way before. That's the exact same role CJ had his first 2 into his 3rd year.
They give us a bit too much credit for our transition offense , to me we have much to improve there, but the takeaway I get, is 30 years ago a media read on Syracuse was "JB rolls the ball out and let's them play". Reading this article in stark comparison to the perception in those days. makes me marvel how far we have come in the eyes of the nation.

 

[moqui]

This is not quite it. It represents their first shot of a possession, not % of points. Also it calculates eFG%, so basically 2x FG% = points per shot. But it does not include things like turnovers and offensive rebounds.

Right, but I wondered what accounted for the other 17 to 20 percent of 1st shots ... I realize now that it is all other turnovers besides steals. I also think that the Hoop Math measure is more accurately called early offense than transition offense.