See ya, Clemson

[Alsacs]

Louisville's only path to CFB playoff is
1. Wake beating Clemson
Or
2. Michigan beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten AND Washington losing another game.
If Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State beats Rutgers and Michigan State the Cards will finish 5th.

 

[Eric15]

Louisville's only path to CFB playoff is
1. Wake beating Clemson
Or
2. Michigan beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten AND Washington losing another game.
If Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State beats Rutgers and Michigan State the Cards will finish 5th.

It's a shame, because I think Louisville would blow the doors off Penn State, but you're probably right.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

It's a shame, because I think Louisville would blow the doors off Penn State, but you're probably right.

I hate to say it but Penn St is pretty freaking good, not quite so sure

 

[SWC75]

Louisville's only path to CFB playoff is
1. Wake beating Clemson
Or
2. Michigan beating Ohio State and winning the Big Ten AND Washington losing another game.
If Ohio State beats Michigan and Penn State beats Rutgers and Michigan State the Cards will finish 5th.

I'm not sure Washington would get in over Louisville. Jackson and the look test.

 

[Alsacs]

I'm not sure Washington would get in over Louisville. Jackson and the look test.

If Washington has a conference title and is 12-1 they will likely jump Louisivlle who would be off championship week.
Washington would be beating a ranked Washington State team and then a top 15 Utah/Colorado/USC team in the PAC-12 title game.
Washington would jump Louisville.
Cards need Michigan to beat Ohio St and Washington loss.

 

[Melancer46]

As Alsacs has been saying, if Ohio State beats Michigan, Penn State is basically a lock for the Big 10 Title Game against Wisconsin. A win there and both Penn State and Ohio State are locked in the playoffs. Alabama is locked in barring a collapse. If Clemson wins the ACC title game, they're locked in.

If Michigan beats Ohio State, that opens up a slot for Washington/Louisville. Washington probably gets that spot if they take care of business.

 

[Briancuse]

As Alsacs has been saying, if Ohio State beats Michigan, Penn State is basically a lock for the Big 10 Title Game against Wisconsin. A win there and both Penn State and Ohio State are locked in the playoffs. Alabama is locked in barring a collapse. If Clemson wins the ACC title game, they're locked in.

If Michigan beats Ohio State, that opens up a slot for Washington/Louisville. Washington probably gets that spot if they take care of business.

I don't consider Penn St a lock at all. I think if all those things happen it comes down to Penn st, Wash, and Lville.

 

[Alsacs]

Penn State a 11-2 and a Big Ten Champ is in 100%.

The committee has Ohio State at 2. Penn State would have the H2H. They are getting in if Ohio State beats Michigan and they beat Wisconsin in a Big Ten title game.

Washington is really 5th team. Louisville needs what I outlined.

 

[Briancuse]

Penn State a 11-2 and a Big Ten Champ is in 100%.

The committee has Ohio State at 2. Penn State would have the H2H. They are getting in if Ohio State beats Michigan and they beat Wisconsin in a Big Ten title game.

Washington is really 5th team. Louisville needs what I outlined.

Their schedule stinks, they lost to Pitt, and they lost to Mich by 40, they beat Osu at home, and would have a win over Wisc, not sure that is enough.

 

[Melancer46]

I don't consider Penn St a lock at all. I think if all those things happen it comes down to Penn st, Wash, and Lville.

11-2 Big 10 Champs with wins over Ohio State and Wisconsin would put them in IMO. I suppose there's a chance Washington could get in ahead of them if they win out the rest of the way with wins over Stanford, Utah, Washington State, and then the title game, but we'll see. I don't think Louisville has any chance at getting in ahead of Penn State if they run the table from here on out.

I think that win over Ohio State is likely what gets Penn State in (if they win the Big 10). Allows the committee to include Ohio State despite Penn State beating them head to head and also winning the conference.

 

[Eric15]

Penn State a 11-2 and a Big Ten Champ is in 100%.

Eh, that's a little high. I would say a 2 out of 3 chance.

 

[Alsacs]

Their schedule stinks, they lost to Pitt, and they lost to Mich by 40, they beat Osu at home, and would have a win over Wisc, not sure that is enough.

Their schedule doesn't stink. They played 9 conference games with Michigan/Ohio State and played a non-conference game at Pitt. That is 10 games. 2 cupcakes isn't a lot.

They will have won a conference title. Now Alabama would steamroll them by 4 TDs atleast but they would have earned it into the CFB playoff. Michigan beat them when they were without several key players.
The committee likes the Big Ten 4 of the top 8 is from that conference.
Michigan beating Ohio State would likely keep Penn State out but if Penn State beats Wisconsin. I think the committee uses the fact the Big Ten is their best conference and it comes down to Washington vs. Penn State and I think Penn State would win that.

 

[CuseOnly]

This all comes down to the playoffs needing to be 8 teams with 5 conference champions in, with 2 at large and one G5 getting in as the template.

 

[Briancuse]

Their schedule doesn't stink. They played 9 conference games with Michigan/Ohio State and played a non-conference game at Pitt. That is 10 games. 2 cupcakes isn't a lot.

They will have won a conference title. Now Alabama would steamroll them by 4 TDs atleast but they would have earned it into the CFB playoff. Michigan beat them when they were without several key players.
The committee likes the Big Ten 4 of the top 8 is from that conference.
Michigan beating Ohio State would likely keep Penn State out but if Penn State beats Wisconsin. I think the committee uses the fact the Big Ten is their best conference and it comes down to Washington vs. Penn State and I think Penn State would win that.

They would have two quality wins all year, they lost by 40 to Michigan, Pitt is a decent team, but they are probably 7-5. The rest of their wins are against the bottom of the Big Ten.

 

[Alsacs]

They would have two quality wins all year, they lost by 40 to Michigan, Pitt is a decent team, but they are probably 7-5. The rest of their wins are against the bottom of the Big Ten.

Minnesota is a solid team. Nobody plays an entire conference schedule which tough. All divisions have like 2 tough games 3 at most unless you are Wisconsin and they beat up dregs.
Conference titles matter if Penn State went 8-1 and won the Big Ten that is huge. The committee isn't going to ding them because they challenged themselves in a road OOC instead of playing a scrub at home and winning.

 

[lincolncuse]

I hate to say it but Penn St is pretty freaking good, not quite so sure

Losing Hackensuck made them so much better

 

[Briancuse]

Minnesota is a solid team. Nobody plays an entire conference schedule which tough. All divisions have like 2 tough games 3 at most unless you are Wisconsin and they beat up dregs.
Conference titles matter if Penn State went 8-1 and won the Big Ten that is huge. The committee isn't going to ding them because they challenged themselves in a road OOC instead of playing a scrub at home and winning.

They are a decent team, their other wins are against Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Iowa, and their next two are Rutgers and Mich st. If Wisc wins out, they would have a better case.

 

[Melancer46]

They are a decent team, their other wins are against Purdue, Indiana, Maryland, Iowa, and their next two are Rutgers and Mich st. If Wisc wins out, they would have a better case.

If Wisconsin beats Penn State in the title game, then yeah, obviously they'd have a better case than Penn State at that point.

 

[Eric15]

Updated odds to win CFB Playoff from Westgate:
Alabama 5-7
Ohio State 2-1
Louisville 6-1
Clemson 12-1
Wisconsin 15-1
Michigan, Oklahoma 20-1
Washington 25-1

Clemson at 12-1 seems like an unbelievably good value bet to me. Also love Michigan at 20-1.

 

[orangecuse]

This all comes down to the playoffs needing to be 8 teams with 5 conference champions in, with 2 at large and one G5 getting in as the template.

1000 likes if there ever was such a button!

 

[TheCusian]

If Michigan wins out, Louisville and Clemson are both in.

 

[Moontan]

This all comes down to the playoffs needing to be 8 teams with 5 conference champions in, with 2 at large and one G5 getting in as the template.

Nix the G5 requirement. If a G5 school makes the top-3 non P-5 champions list then they'd get in just like any other school.

If G5 wants a playoff team so bad, then they should set up a G-5 playoff.

 

[Briancuse]

If Wisconsin beats Penn State in the title game, then yeah, obviously they'd have a better case than Penn State at that point.

Well ya,but as of now they have a better resume anyway, they have a non conf win over Lsu, Penn st's best non conf win is Temple.

 

[CuseOnly]

1000 likes if there ever was such a button!

Problem is that the money grabbing idiots didn't think ahead.

Kind Of Like Urban planning, you don't build a process or structure for what you need today, you build it for the next 20-30 years at minimum.

 

[Chip]

If Ohio state beats Michigan..,, does Louisville jump them?

A 1 loss Louisville team definitely jumps the loser of this game.

But do they keep Washington and the Penn State/Wisconsin winner out?

Louisville needs to root for Michigan State over the Pedo's, then Ohio State to beat Wisconsin again, and for Washington to either lose to Leach or Colorado, or possibly USC again.

All very possible.

Louisville should also root for Louisville tomorrow night.